Third Thoughts Mafia [SCUM WIN]
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Cook
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Cook SheMafia Scum Cook She
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2964
- Joined: December 5, 2020
- Pronoun: She
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moderator, clearlyYour friendly neighborhood chef and baker. LONG LIVE THE CHEFHAT REBELLION!
Cults With Guns //"ya true if you don't play mafia you are probably winning" – Alisae
Inventor of 3d20 //Successful Rebellion Leader//-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
who aren't I dayvigging. If I kill everyone I win, right?"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
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pagetopHalf meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
- Contact:
This sounds like something a jester would say. I'm not voting Bingle.In post 26, Bingle wrote:who aren't I dayvigging. If I kill everyone I win, right?Half meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
lol, pagetops in marathons, what is this."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
- Contact:
I am, however, pouring a drink.Half meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business Almost50
- Monkey Business
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- Posts: 27276
- Joined: November 13, 2015
- Location: Right here.
/confirm Jester
P.S. I had this idea when I looked at the setup. Claiming Jester prevents one from being the lim of the day. Regardless of my true alignment, this is GOOD.
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
VOTE: monkey"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
- Contact:
I had to try alright!In post 29, Bingle wrote:lol, pagetops in marathons, what is this.Half meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
Let's be honest, if he's the jester he's already won."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea Ircher He / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
I think it's optimal to switch in this setup. Rough details below:
So
1/6 chance degenerates to Second Thoughts where not switching is always optimal14/39
2/6 chance 2T, 2M, 1J. We assume J picks anyone. 3/5 of the time, it's optimal for town to switch.
3/6 chance 3T, 1M, 1J. It's optimal to switch 2/5 of the time (as otherwise it's an instant loss.)
1/6 + 3/6 * 3/5 for no switching which is 1/6 + 9/30 or 5/30 + 9/30 ~ 14/30-
Cook
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Cook SheMafia Scum Cook She
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2964
- Joined: December 5, 2020
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Stapling Internet Together [89.9%]
- Contact:
and, too, the original version of this setup had a way for town to survive a quickhammer
this just adds some variables and wifom
VC:
Almost50 (1): BingleYour friendly neighborhood chef and baker. LONG LIVE THE CHEFHAT REBELLION!
Cults With Guns //"ya true if you don't play mafia you are probably winning" – Alisae
Inventor of 3d20 //Successful Rebellion Leader//-
Save The Dragons
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Save The Dragons He/HimProtection unnecessary Save The Dragons He/Him
- Protection unnecessary
- Protection unnecessary
- Posts: 21464
- Joined: April 26, 2004
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: WA, USA
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Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
- Contact:
Only if we believe you!In post 31, Almost50 wrote:/confirm Jester
P.S. I had this idea when I looked at the setup. Claiming Jester prevents one from being the lim of the day. Regardless of my true alignment, this is GOOD.
VOTE: A50
El-1Half meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Ircher
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Ircher
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Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business Almost50
- Monkey Business
- Monkey Business
- Posts: 27276
- Joined: November 13, 2015
- Location: Right here.
Scum claim??
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.-
Save The Dragons
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Save The Dragons He/HimProtection unnecessary Save The Dragons He/Him
- Protection unnecessary
- Protection unnecessary
- Posts: 21464
- Joined: April 26, 2004
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: WA, USA
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Aristophanes
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Aristophanes He/HimMr. Blue Sky Aristophanes He/Him
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Mr. Blue Sky
- Posts: 17170
- Joined: December 30, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Hiding from Actual Cannibal Shia Lebeouf
- Contact:
In english please?In post 35, Ircher wrote:I think it's optimal to switch in this setup. Rough details below:
So
1/6 chance degenerates to Second Thoughts where not switching is always optimal14/39
2/6 chance 2T, 2M, 1J. We assume J picks anyone. 3/5 of the time, it's optimal for town to switch.
3/6 chance 3T, 1M, 1J. It's optimal to switch 2/5 of the time (as otherwise it's an instant loss.)
1/6 + 3/6 * 3/5 for no switching which is 1/6 + 9/30 or 5/30 + 9/30 ~ 14/30
I'm old and haven't played Mafia since Team Mafia...Half meme, Half real, All Aristophanes ;)- JingleAri has appeared way too competent for me to even pretend to know what they're thinking
- MooseEatsBear on discord mafiait wouldn’t be an ari sig unless it takes up half the screen on mobile - Vonflare-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
only in your dreams
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea Ircher He / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Cook
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Cook SheMafia Scum Cook She
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2964
- Joined: December 5, 2020
- Pronoun: She
- Location: Stapling Internet Together [89.9%]
- Contact:
Almost50 has been hammered. Almost50, propose an alternative elimination.
Votecount reset.Your friendly neighborhood chef and baker. LONG LIVE THE CHEFHAT REBELLION!
Cults With Guns //"ya true if you don't play mafia you are probably winning" – Alisae
Inventor of 3d20 //Successful Rebellion Leader//-
Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
speaking of, that one last tuesday was really weird, and if it mirrors reality I'd recommend seeing a doctor.
"He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Ircher
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea Ircher He / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Bingle
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Bingle Survivor Bingle
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10270
- Joined: July 21, 2019
- Location: Bad Player Jail
pfffft, we should always hammer the monkey. He doesn't believe in maths."He brings the cool and the muscle" -FakeGod
"I was playing against the timer known as bingle tbh." ~Chennisden
"it's truest in mechanical games (if he gets a gritty setup and is town in it and needs to save the day, he starts levitating and his eyes start glowing. not exaggerating, it literally happens)." ~Ducky-
Almost50
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Almost50 Monkey Business Almost50
- Monkey Business
- Monkey Business
- Posts: 27276
- Joined: November 13, 2015
- Location: Right here.
Now you're talking.. 'cept at 5 am all I got was "switch, optimal, time". So, what do you want to say again?In post 35, Ircher wrote:I think it's optimal to switch in this setup. Rough details below:
So
1/6 chance degenerates to Second Thoughts where not switching is always optimal14/39
2/6 chance 2T, 2M, 1J. We assume J picks anyone. 3/5 of the time, it's optimal for town to switch.
3/6 chance 3T, 1M, 1J. It's optimal to switch 2/5 of the time (as otherwise it's an instant loss.)
1/6 + 3/6 * 3/5 for no switching which is 1/6 + 9/30 or 5/30 + 9/30 ~ 14/30
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.
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