FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over


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Post Post #2250 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:00 pm

Post by Cabd »

With 6 players alive, it will take 4 votes to burn a servant.

Rider (1): Beast

Deadline for Day 4 is set at: (expired on 2021-07-30 23:05:00)

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Last edited by Cabd on Mon Jul 26, 2021 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Have retired for good; Life is too busy to have time or energy for mafia. It was fun~


And then, a Miracle, a Dance Game and a flight of fancy struck, one more game into the abyss
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Post Post #2251 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:03 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2249, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Well, that's why I'm
hoping
he sent it to Caster, so it can actually be confirmed. Gamma wasn't the most responsive in the hood. But again I feel like me having that blocking ability and actively choosing not to use it shows town motivation, because there'd be no reason to holster it as scum when already at a disadvantage.
This is a great point
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Post Post #2252 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:29 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Rereading taking notes, hoping I'll be able to synthesize it into something useful and ask some questions tomorrow.

Thought cropped up in my head, though - Beast, why 'd you target Caster with your second investigation, again?
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Post Post #2253 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:35 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Because I wasn't sure that Avenger's result would be valid. It depends on the miller type.
So the next thing I thought was, if Avenger wasn't scum, who could be scum and would be good to clear?
And that was caster to me. I also thought it unlikely they'd get shot so I wouldn't have to explain why I investigated a dead person. Pretty much, I did it to narrow the pool further while protecting myself from getting miseliminated.
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Post Post #2254 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:39 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Why'd you think Caster could be scum? To me, I had lingering doubts on her but I thought Foreigner's flip spewed her as town.
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Post Post #2255 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:40 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Assassin seemed like a bad check because I would expect non-detection or similar abilities to be at play. You could've gotten shot, so I didn't look there. I did actually think about checking you N1 because I didn't really want to have to engage with day play as that was still pretty fresh, but decided against it because I felt that if you were deep scum it's unlikely you'd have been the one to shoot people anyway. Since the deep scum usually wants as little implicating evidence as possible. So I decided on foreigner there. I'm not sure if it was a mistake to check foreigner, I noted that it was sort of a bad first check because it was likely they were just gunna resolve anyway, but I wanted to double check there. Ultimately, I just ignored my result and went with their day play. Their anger at being suspected was classic scum.
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Post Post #2256 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:45 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2254, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Why'd you think Caster could be scum? To me, I had lingering doubts on her but I thought Foreigner's flip spewed her as town.
I thought that during the selection phase they might've overdone it so to speak, A sort of reverse TMI. that bothered me. Plus they were suspicious of me and seemed to be lining me up, so I didn't want to day solve when a clear check would do. There was only one scum left, so I was like, probably a good choice. I don't really remember anything particularly clearing Caster based on their interactions with Foreigner. Could you show me what led you to think they were less likely to be scum?
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Post Post #2257 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:49 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Pretty much, a lot of what I did was based on survival or trying to outguess the scum team.
I rgeretted it at the time, but I realize now that, it would have been a mistake to bodyguard shielder since I had two investigates that could have eventually led to 2 clears with my NP. Though part of me wanted to peace out early and die. lol.
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Post Post #2258 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:54 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 2256, Servant Beast wrote:
In post 2254, Servant Alter Ego wrote:Why'd you think Caster could be scum? To me, I had lingering doubts on her but I thought Foreigner's flip spewed her as town.
I thought that during the selection phase they might've overdone it so to speak, A sort of reverse TMI. that bothered me. Plus they were suspicious of me and seemed to be lining me up, so I didn't want to day solve when a clear check would do. There was only one scum left, so I was like, probably a good choice. I don't really remember anything particularly clearing Caster based on their interactions with Foreigner. Could you show me what led you to think they were less likely to be scum?
Foreigner had been aggressively casing Caster during the master phase, she was his first real scum read and pursued her pretty sonsistently. (I had actually thought he was town for a while simply because I did not think scum would pursue such an unpopular read so aggressively). The scum team was very bus-happy, but generally most scum don't star off bussing with their first case. Additionally, when I reviewed during the night I hadn't felt like Caster's responses to Foreigner looked aligned.
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Post Post #2259 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:55 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Well, "casing" as much as he was capable of, anyway.
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Post Post #2260 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 12:58 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

Yeah, I was about to say. lol.
Because their cases were relatively weak sauce, I don't think they truly expected to convince people.
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Post Post #2261 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:02 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

As for the scum tendency not to case their partners early. *looks back at foreigner case* You could be unto something (I'm joking). I haven't heard of that one in combination with statistical significance tho.
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Post Post #2262 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:09 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Just accdentally closed my notes for the second time in a row while trying to compile posts. Fuck it, I'm done working on this game for tonight.

I would appreciate it if Lancer/Caster would be here to talk more.
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Post Post #2263 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:14 pm

Post by Servant Lancer »

I'm around, just don't really have much useful at the moment I think. at least for me because I'm not very mechanically-minded, massclaim doesn't help at all. are there particular things you want to talk about? otherwise I'll attempt to do some rereading of the earlier days tomorrow.
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Post Post #2264 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 1:23 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

I don't have conclusions to present to you yet, no. I was in the middle taking notes on Beast still before I decided to stop. Was just wondering if you had any questions to ask, I suppose.
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Post Post #2265 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:11 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

I can confirm that Zerker was very apathetic in the hood with me and it felt like he didn't really give a shit.


He didn't tell me he was in a hood with anyone else.

I have some thoughts about who I want between the three suspects but I'm not ready to post them yet and I'd like them to continue to joust between each other for who they want to eliminate.
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Post Post #2266 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:13 pm

Post by Servant Caster »

Zerker's favorite guess for last scum was Rider but he never really elaborated on that scumread.
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Post Post #2267 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:25 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

In post 2265, Servant Caster wrote:I can confirm that Zerker was very apathetic in the hood with me and it felt like he didn't really give a shit.


He didn't tell me he was in a hood with anyone else.

I have some thoughts about who I want between the three suspects but I'm not ready to post them yet and I'd like them to continue to joust between each other for who they want to eliminate.
...for fuck's sake, gamma, she was cleared. How does she get told less than me?
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Post Post #2268 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:29 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

I guess that at least confirms that I didn't kill him because he was secretly on to me. I had been trying to sell him on Rider since night 2. Started having doubts last night but at that point in time he probably wasn't reading.
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Post Post #2269 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:29 pm

Post by Servant Alter Ego »

Will still summarize the content of the hood if anyone wants to hear it from me.
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Post Post #2270 (ISO) » Sun Jul 25, 2021 4:41 pm

Post by Servant Beast »

In post 2268, Servant Alter Ego wrote:I guess that at least confirms that I didn't kill him because he was secretly on to me. I had been trying to sell him on Rider since night 2. Started having doubts last night but at that point in time he probably wasn't reading.
Sure, I'd like to hear as much as possible. I need to go back and dig more.
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Post Post #2271 (ISO) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 12:53 am

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2221, Servant Beast wrote:This claim is actually an interesting bomb shell.
Could you claim your actions, I noticed you did not and that is problematic.

1. Since the bullet proof is activated during the day phase he could use his lightning rod ability, but my ability wasn't redirected either night.
2. This also creates a seemingly confusing contradiction. I recall Rider not believing my investigation ability. Foreigner also claimed to watch/track me, which would have been redirected to rider and he would have known that too.
3. I might be recalling incorrectly, but didn't they ask me a specific question as to whether my ability said whether the target's name was mentioned? Or was that someone else? this is really interesting. This shows more internal consistency however because it shows that they had been playing toward their role for most of the game. This doesn't necessarily point to town for quite a few reasons however. Other scum also tried to role play their roles consistently from a town POV, specifically saber had tried this. Nobody bought it, but they had tried to follow this and largely didn't lie about their abilities. Riders comments throughout the game follow a similar pattern, I don't think this is scummy without thinking about it further.

However, the question becomes why didn't they jump down my throat earlier? They would have arguably had a guilty or equivalent with my Foreigner check. But didn't do anything with it, if I recall they defended foreigner, but then they flipped scum and this didn't change their mind any. Could you explain further, what was going through your mind throughout the game Rider? From he beginning of the game to the present?
I don't believe I properly responded to this post.

It wasn't the detective ability I didn't believe, it was your "I know Shielder is town" ability.

I've been scumreading you for most of this game, and I feel like I've made this apparent with the exception of Day 3 when I was convinced it was Avenger. No, I didn't jump down your throat after you claimed your detective ability. I don't understand why you think I would have.

Regarding my Lightning Rod ability, I will add more context. I know there are exactly 6 "good-aligned" Servants in this game. I didn't use my ability Night 1 because I didn't want to interfere with Berserker in the event their Noble Phantasm was an investigative ability. Even with Ruler being killed at the beginning of Night 2, I was a little bit excited because even with two "good-aligned" Servants flipped, there were still four more viable "good-aligned" targets and only two scum left. With two more flipping at the end of Day 2, and only one scum being left in the game, I didn't feel as though it was worth attempting to gain charges for my Noble Phantasm (which is a ***** ability) and potentially interfering with multiple players' abilities to only clear myself when there is the potential to clear multiple players at once. After Archer flipped on Day 3, I lost interest in attempting to charge my Noble Phantasm because I knew there was only one "good-aligned" Servant left (and based on who I thought it was, didn't think it would do much for my result), and I thought an Avenger flip would end the game anyway. After finding out I was wrong on Avenger, and with Berserker and Lancer saying they thought it was me in the game thread on Night 3, I figured I'd probably be the primary target for investigations even without my ability, and I still don't think it's worth potentially interfering with multiple players just to clear myself when there's only one scum left and a mislim available.
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Post Post #2272 (ISO) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:44 am

Post by Servant Rider »

In post 2205, Servant Beast wrote:Mrs. Crane was the only caster servant that I thought might come away clear in an investigate because she liked clothes, so I thought "maybe she could change her clothes after they got blood on them" Twas' a passing thought.

I'm narrowing my focus to Assassin, Alter, Rider and then need to whittle it down more from there. I'm okay with a mass claim.
The Mrs. Crane comment here isn't real analysis. Just flavor-spec hoping to expand the elimination pool.
In post 2206, Servant Beast wrote:Except Lancer and Caster.
They really don't need to claim. It just benefits the scum team I think. I guess it might help, because it might make other roles less plausible. But, I guess what I mean to say is that they should go last
and they should feel free to fudge their claims to hold advantage so to speak.
There's no town-motivation in making this post. All this does is incentivize other players to add confusion to the analysis for them.
In post 2189, Servant Beast wrote:Assassin from a role perspective I couldn't clear. It seems based off of the scum roles revealed so far there isn't a replication of roles in terms of scum roles. There was a machoizer and a strong man. Assassins I can see just from a thematic stand point getting past a role blocker. However, based on the roles revealed so far if there is a redirector it would have to be the last scum and I'm pretty sure that:
1. A redirector has lower priority than a role blocker so their action would fail even if they redirected caster. 2. The kill would need to be guranteed to come from assassin based on the information we have.

It should be noted that the scum team's NP seems to have been all 4 stars, but unless assassin had an extra boost as part of their own abilities none of their abilities that would have allowed for a boost a NP even a 3* wouldn't have charged by the night they would need to have to get through a role block.
In post 2190, Servant Beast wrote:Pretty much the only universe where Assassin is scum is one where they can kill with an innate ability (no NP, or a really low cost NP which I find unlikely) or some sort of passive that alters how abilities effect them.
In post 2195, Servant Beast wrote:
In post 2193, Servant Rider wrote:Beast, how were your results returned to you regarding Caster and Foreigner?
Cabd told me in my notes PT, they used the player's name and then stated whether the player had killed anyone this game. Both were negatives.

I clarified with Cabd over night that he hadn't made an error by naming Caster. (I couldn't have been blocked as an investigative without being informed of it, due to the nature of requiring a result). He said it was intentionally worded that way. So, I wasn't redirected. Pretty much.
In post 2201, Servant Caster wrote:I performed a night action on Assassin last night, it worked so he is not Ascetic.

Uh I don't really know what to do now except I guess re-read?

I'm going to be really impressed with whoever the last scum is
Through Beast's own analysis, Assassin makes no sense as a scum-candidate right now. Especially if they believe their own results in indicating Caster to be cleared as well. So to Beast, Caster and Assassin should be the players without any real consideration here.

-Through Beast's result, Caster cannot be scum because their result strongly indicates that Caster hasn't made a kill as the last scum. Regardless of Beast's alignment, Caster cannot be scum.
-Caster claims Assassin cannot be ascetic through night actions by confirming with a separate ability, and roleblocked Assassin on a night where there was both a Nightkill and only one scum left. So if Beast's own abilities and results are to be believed, and their analysis regarding redirector's and roleblockers hold any weight, then Assassin shouldn't be on the table for Beast either.

Except he only takes Lancer off the table, which I feel is the weakest of the clears mechanically, but Beast has been buddying that slot since pretty much the beginning of the game.
In post 2208, Servant Beast wrote:Mostly right now, besides hunting, I'm thinking about how to achieve two eliminations on the most probable scum without losing an elimination by getting eliminated myself. Pretty much, I want to do the opposite of what Rider is doing, because if I'm wrong again I'd like another shot rather than getting killed for being wrong again. Which results in a sort of blame game or, 'you're responsible for being wrong, so if we lose because I voted you, it's on you"
and yeah, it's on me, from a justice or fairness perspective but from the perspective of win condition it leaves a lot to be desired.

Also, just from a self-case perspective, I've self-cased and Alter has self-cased but Rider just argued that they were wrong and they were being suspected for that, which is slightly different. I'd like Rider to self-case and tbh, for Assassin to self case.

Sometimes I get burnt because I push at people in comfortable positions, but I'm just trying to solve and make sure the corners are clear. So I hope Alter and Assassin do not push back (too) hard for me questioning them.

With that out of the way.

I don't think Alter is cleared. I still think they're town because as mentioned there were decision points where they just defaulted right back onto scum when they had reason not to.

For example, when Lancer was like, "based on what happened with Moon cancer, Foreigner should be cleared" instead of just giggling in my scum PT, I was like, "actually, no" Alter played similarly.

Assassin has intentionally played a certain way. But I feel like they have no results to show for it, which, kind of sucks tbh. I don't think a clear should be relied on here. They require a closer look.

I'm kinda just draft posting today. I'm busy with other stuff.
There are so many issues with this post.

First off, it's clear that Beast's modus operandi for today, to which they've pretty much already laid the groundwork for starting in this post (the first paragraph no less), is to survive. They've pretty much told us to our face that their main goal is to find two players that are better eliminations than them today. Not the player that is most likely to be scum, mind you, but two players that Beast thinks they can get eliminated so that they won't be.

Then, despite their prior analysis, and no reasonable explanation to go back on it, Beast suddenly states that the clear on Assassin shouldn't be relied upon. Which makes no sense, and once again, leads me to believe they're just trying desperately to expand the elimination pool.

Also in this post, is them requesting both Alter Ego and Assassin to not push back (too hard). This is particularly egregious because it continues to play into their narrative that expanding the elimination pool is good, so long as Beast isn't in it. It's okay for Beast to push other players, but despite other players potentially needed to check their own angles (so to speak), that they should only go easy on them.

The funniest thing in this post is them mentioning having a scum PT. They claim it was just for comparison's sake, although no matter how much I look at it, I don't know why a town-aligned player would ever feel the need to say such a thing or even bring that up, and I feel like they just slipped. But I don't really feel like focusing on it that much.
In post 2217, Servant Beast wrote:VOTE: Rider

Is my response to rider's posts. :roll: If you just want to go for surface, least charitable interpretations. I'm just going to automatically assume you're scum phoning it in instead of hunting.

Abilities.
1. Shielder is town. Merlin isn't in the game.
2. I could body guard shielder every night. However, I could not use my two shot investigate at the same time. I was asking abou how their death worked to see if I could revive them or bodyguard them post death, but nope.
3. 2-shot investigate -> Investigated Foreigner N1. Investigated Caster night 2.

My NP is a **** ability, it confirms both players's alignment of the targets I investigated. This is probably to get past any doubts if Investigated a player and got a negative result because they specifically hadn't used their night kill. Based on what I know, I believe the only way for me to use this NP (and it wouldn't tell us much, since I do think Caster, just probably doesn't have an obscure ability to come up clean on an investigate post-kill) is if we no kill. one day.
In post 2242, Servant Beast wrote:Ah, yes, she did. She answered my question about mrs. Crane.

I think I want to go Rider. If the game doesn't end, no elimination to narrow the pool. Then show down with Alter. I might be okay with skipping the no lim phase depending on what happens to assassin. Since there's only one scum left I don't have to worry about collaboration weirdness which should introduce some interesting and hopefully AI responses.
The request for a No-Kill makes no sense with regards to his abilities and the circumstances surrounding his results. What? Does he suddenly have some reason to question his investigation result that should reasonably clear Caster despite:
1. There only being one scum at the time they investigated Caster.
2. No reasonable reason to believe their result can't be trusted (According to Beast, Cabd explicitly stated Caster did not make the kill that night).

What does 'No-Killing to slim down the pool' really achieve? We have three players (Caster, Assassin, Lancer) that we can reasonably take off the table. So all this does is allow scum to take a free shot at one of those three players. Not to mention scum could be hiding a Noble Phantasm that allows for an extra kill and potentially end the game despite us being at even numbers here.

No, regardless of what happens today, we should definitely
not
No-Kill.
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Post Post #2273 (ISO) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 4:01 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

It's fine to be paranoid. In particular I've been aware of the more neutral attitudes people take toward me simply because I've generally been reserved this game and don't have a high post count or activity. That's just my style of play in general and often I get eternally null read for it.

So even if I personally think I'm slightly more clear than caster (only because an explicit scum strongman flipped already), if Beast wanted to consider me just because it is hard for me to fault it. Of course the scum motivation for doing so is obvious. I believe Lancer is actually the most mechanically clear unless I missed something big because Avenger said the mod confirmed to him that Lancer was town. I really hope VFP's reading acuity is not so bad as to get that wrong.

I get the sense of trying to survive from Beast more than say you Rider, but I don't put the same value on how intrinsically scummy that is.

As far as claims go, I would have liked full information from Caster/Lancer (I really don't see a reason Caster has to hold back), but yes it is strange that beast gets both information on a starting clear + an investigative role + an ability that flavorwise is in sheilder's department. That said, Cabd definitely has taken pains to defy expectations for the power levels of abilities and NPs, so outguessing the mod in that area is quite difficult.
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Post Post #2274 (ISO) » Mon Jul 26, 2021 4:03 am

Post by Servant Assassin »

I also think Rider's line of play with regards to his abilities are perfectly reasonable.
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