Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[Nashville Dreams]

2 1 1 kingmaker.

town wins in this scenario most of the time by No Fading.

Not if one or both miss. The game is out of our control. I'd rather remain in control.

[Nashville Dreams]

If Flavor is town, my money's on SoD for mafia. There's a stark lack of commentary that sticks out in my mind re: Flavor but that could be my illness.

Why?

The lack of commentary puts you in an ideal position. If Flavor's town, you can settle for a lim there. That's exactly mafia's backup if they can't get a wolf. The downside is pushing it (because Klick wants mafia) could out you as real mafia to the wolves as their pool to shoot shrinks and the game shifts drsmatically. Not FoSing or searching elsewhere limits the prople you upset benefitting mafia.

[Flavor Leaf]

At this point, I understand if I'm the one that gets faded. I've tried my hardest to get town read all game, but I'm too slippery as scum for it to be trusted completely here.

This is Detective Fogport all over again, scum read almost entirely all game, and in the end, a game losing misfade.

Funny enough, I was a Vig there too.

[Sword of Ducks]

I just read all that as FLAVORTOWN.

[Sword of Ducks]

I just read all that as FLAVORTOWN.

The "Spock, set a course for FLAVORTOWN" kind.

[Klick]

Is there anyone else you particularly read as town other than FL?

[Freedom]

TicTac changes right after the Nashville wagon got close to range

That is interesting.
It feels a bit off that they changed so quickly.

[Sword of Ducks]

Is there anyone else you particularly read as town other than FL?

You and Freedom. Maybe. I dunno. This entire game I've relied on my gut, but now my gut doesn't even know anymore.

[Flavor Leaf]

This is a funny day because scum have to be like completely careful with not making it out to be obvious that it’s 100% them, and also wolves have to both defend their partner + make sure they aren’t tied together.

Best case scenario for wolves is to hit Mafia, but they’re super scared of missing, I feel.

Klick, can you give your Menalque town case?

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t believe Math lies about the occult on Klick, and I’d like to believe Klick isn’t a Werewolf Godfather, but in either of those cases, I’ve essentially accepted that as a Wolf win, but I do just want to call out the moon theory

But from that pov, I think Klick just always wins by fading me unless they’re afraid of being shot by Mafia who thinks they’re town, but i believe Mafia has to go after wolves, and Klick would be a poor shot, and a lucky shot if they did kill them.

This is really just a post game “i called it” more than actually considering this.

I think Klick would have pushed me or Nashville by now if this was the case

Idk, I feel I’m right on the money with my solve, personally, but I admit it could just be my own self believing I’m right.

I have felt Menalque town from tone all game, it’s really just the vote patterns and day 1 pushes completely intertwined by 2 wolves + TicTac for me.

[Flavor Leaf]

The solve being TicTac->Menalque->Nashville

My biggest issue is everytime I interact with Nashville I hard gut read town them

[Klick]

I really don’t think I make it through the night, though.

VOTE: TicTac

Just hit scum, and let the chips fall.

@Sword - TicTac moved off of Nashville, which is something I was testing.

Quite likely you don't, which is why I haven't voted you. The catch is that if I'm unsure if you're mafia, I am struggling to figure out where I should vote. If we vote you and you're town, then we go to 3 2 1.
Mafia must shoot a wolf. Wolves can shoot either but probably try for mafia.
If either misses, we either lose to wolves or go 2 1 1 kingmaker.

If we lim tictac and he flips wolf as expected, then wolves shoot you incorrectly. That puts us at 3 1 1 with mafia shot unknown. If mafia miss 2 1 1 kingmaker.

You wanted me to check this

In terms of pure math this is correct. I think the actual decisions made affect things significantly though. For example, I don't think Mafia misses, they shoot tictac who is probably a Wolf. The problem is that Wolves don't really have a big incentive to aim for Mafia.

That's the problem I have with the 2-1-1 Kingmaker scenario as well. One faction doesn't have incentive to aim for the other. We don't know which, but we know that the factions can't draw with only each other. That either means 0-1-1 is a 3-way draw, or otherwise one of the factions wins in 0-1-1.

[Klick]

Is there anyone else you particularly read as town other than FL?

You and Freedom. Maybe. I dunno. This entire game I've relied on my gut, but now my gut doesn't even know anymore.

I have Freedom as town. Where we differ is FL vs Menalque. I have Menalque as super hard town.

The problem I had last day phase was that I was concerned town couldn't come together and agree on voting out who the scum are. I think there's a chance we can make that happen now.

[Klick]

I don't think FL-town, Freedom-Maf is impossible though ftr. I think that's the second most likely scenario we're in.

[Klick]

I think tictac and Nashville are the wolves because everyone else is not a wolf.

[Klick]

I don't think FL-town, Freedom-Maf is impossible though ftr. I think that's the second most likely scenario we're in.

That overstated how likely I think that is ftr - I still think this is rather unlikely

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m not mafia, Klick :/

[Flavor Leaf]

@Klick - why is Menalque town for you? Reasons other than tone.

[Klick]

The reasons he's been scumread link up really hard with the reasons I've been scumread and his approach considering his various issues with how this game has gone has been nearly identical to my own approach. I see Menalque as a mirror to me in this game. I also don't think his posts over the last 2-3 game days are a way that he'd be satisfied playing this as scum.

[Klick]

Basically if Menalque is scum here he has mirrored a town perspective on this game that is different from his own typical meta to an extreme level, in a way that accomplishes nothing except the potential to get exactly me to townread him. Because his approach has done him zero other favours in this game if he's scum.

He's just town.

[Flavor Leaf]

This kinda just sucks. Because I feel like the only way I’m not faded today is if Sword or Freedom are faded, and those are my stronger reads.

[Klick]

I feel like even if you're town your elimination doesn't doom us. At that point the remaining Mafia really does have to shoot a Wolf, and the Wolves are better served shooting for Mafia than for Town to avoid Mafia shooting them again the next night.

[Klick]

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

[Menalque]

Anything you want to wait for or am I good to E-1 him?

[Klick]

I guess I just want to stress that like... I feel fairly strongly about my reads at the moment? And if you're not confident, and SoD isn't sure on his reads, then I'd love it if my reads were sheeped to endgame. Because I don't really see another valid way for town to come together for a win at this point other than getting behind a unified set of reads.