Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Meuh]

Meuh. what's your current read on Gamma?

Gamma has me really conflicted, I still like his vibes. He may be agenda motivated though just from the opening today. Kinda confusing for him to go from refusing to vote until everyone talked on day 3, and now carelessly toss his vote around in what may be MELO?
At this point I need to find a townie in Fire/Gamma/Fey and it's a bit tough.
Fire I'm not too sure on, Gorilla/Fire seemed like a ridiculous solve and I thought he was flipping red
I think Fire's the one who gained the most scum equity from Dunn flipping red though. Like I think it was brought up earlier but Fire was one of the Marci voters who hopped on first, right? Let me find that post. Oh yeah 2924. Fire makes sense as scum who capitalized on the Lavar wagon to alleviate pressure on Marci.
Fey has like good vibes somehow? Idk reading her posts her mindset is weird but it feels like townie thoughts
Like idk her fixation on the Lavar wagon and posts like 3095 and 3096 feel pretty natural in a way. Like I feel like she'd be thinking differently if she was being fed ideas by partners.

I'd say I'm leaning Gamma/Fire
Feels like a Gamma lim is correct today, because either way, Fire/Fey as a team is ??? like considering the way Fey actually called Fire out yesterday
and if Fire/Fey isn't it, then it has to be Gamma/Fey or Gamma/Fire.

and yknow how Gamma was scumreading you? and those were my thoughts on it

Okay look at this, it's townie logic.

The only scenario where I see Gamma push you as scum like this is if he's very desperate and also partnered with Fire.

(Pushing you over Fire would be bad if you and Fire were town/town.) But those 2 things seem contradictory. A Gamma/Fire/anyone else team was - and imo still is - lined up for a win. So I just don't see scum!Gamma saying this.

That might actually be it, weirdly enough. I guess you were probably right on that one.
I think this incriminates Fire if Gamma is scum, which I think he pretty much has to be at this point

[Meuh]

;-; I’m town please give me your blessing come tomorrow to be kept alive over Gamma. I don’t have the strength to fight him and it’s probably going to be me or him.

Why do you think those are the only 2 options? I have a vote from R&R rn and Kovu has voted me extensively in the past

[Meuh]

I currently have my Invictus pointed squarely at Gamma and have had him in my solve since yesterday so... weird team concept.

you've pushed meuh hard. meuh and gorilla have pushed each other hard. gamma has pushed dunn hard. dunn has pushed gorilla kinda hard and offered to vig him with luke. you and gamma have pushed each other recently. meuh has pushed dunn a bit recently.

literally every possible team has someone bussing someone. that isn't even remotely surprising at this stage of the game with this narrow of a poe.

you 100% know better than this. this is such a snap reaction, zero level defense. i don't get it

I kinda forgot Meuh existed and you just seem angy I said you didn’t look good.

Like I think the sort of weird condescending disappointed tone is just like. “What.”

I don't buy this being partnered

[Meuh]

I swear if Fey is town and our limpool was 4 townies and 1 scum...

[Meuh]

Okay we kill meuh

Bell had her in his solve (also thinks it’s gamma)

Gorilla said meuh next

After that idk, I still think gamma>fey but Fey was in the same section of my early reads as dunn so quite possibly I’m just wrong?

VOTE: meuh

I was gonna contest this post; but there's no point being made aside "townies thought Meuh was a good lim". That's like reasonable but also isn't something I can argue against.
If you pinky promise to pew pew pow Gamma, then we very likely still get a day 6? So there's worse things than your current solve but also mislimming me is very sad.
I do wonder if Kovu could win MELO against Fey and Fire. That really spooks me actually, considering the hood exists and I think Fire's scum. So maybe mislimming me means we still just lose.

[Meuh]

Like I think it was brought up earlier but Fire was one of the Marci voters who hopped on first, right?

*hopped off first

[Gammagooey]

Meuh I don't get how you or pretty much anyone thinks I'm likely scum after my play/interactions with both marci+Dunn. Like this 1391 is a post I made to marci scum asking them to follow through on their suspicions of ANOTHER now flipped scum which she used her scumread on me to avoid doing, and I'm pretty sure I have more actual WORDS regarding marci and Dunn in particular than any living player, and probably more than any dead players too except for Lukewarm on marci and gorilla on Dunn.

Like really, go through my play day 1 and day 2 and tell me what of that you think is more likely coming from scum than town.

[Meuh]

Hmm, that post is compelling. The thing is that I do think that Marci's interactions with you don't look particularly like S/S, but like who's scum then?
Fey and Fire doesn't work as a pair very well as I pointed out
Maybe there's less that distances them than distances you and Marci, though. It's weird to weigh

[Meuh]

I guess Fire/Fey's interactions mean less since they happened much later in the game? So it could be more deliberate
Maybe Fey's just good at channeling her emotions in a way that looks townie
But like idk I don't really see it

[Meuh]

Like I guess it could be scum frustrated at each other
Frustration is the easiest emotion to fake
Blegh

[Meuh]

Gamma, who's Fey's partner? Feels relevant to consider here

[Gammagooey]

Gonna put the possibility of you-scum aside for a sec but tbf I still don't think it's likely that you and Dunn play the way you did in regards to the gorilla particularly d2 as scumbuddies together, tho I don't remember much of what you were doing d3/early d4 so that's worth a reread sometime today

My gut has said Kovu the whole game just based on their early play feeling performative to me and not thinking people are giving them credit as someone capable of playing this jumpy/free-spirited as scum when they've been pushing town for the vast, vast majority of it. I get why people think their marci push is coming from town but I at least think it's possible that Kovu did that expecting her vote to just sit there and get ignored instead of the marci wagon taking off. They have had some decent/good pushes on Dunn too but they've been pretty brief and not ultimately not followed through on for more than a real-life day or two - it's hard for me to tell if they're legitimately thinking Dunn is scum there or are just voting basically everyone whenever they make a post she thinks town-her would find scummy and then jumping off to the next person.

fire I think felt very good while playing through the early days and I still think makes a decent amount of sense as town, but they've been pushing against a ton of reads of mine that ultimately turned out to be correct (Lavar vs marci d1, Cakez d3 and if my memories are right put some minor brakes on Dunn-pushes a few times (I'm 90% sure I remember him saying Dunn looked good after a few of his posts D3, his teams including Dunn in 2894 were pretty weak pushes aside from me+Fey+Dunn which is generally ??? with my pushes on Dunn throughout the game - I think there were a few comments about Dunn being town or Dunn posts being good d1/d2 too but I don't remember the specifics atm. Also pushed against my Dunn+you aren't scum together thoughts in the last couple game days. Them being *the reasonable scum* that just pushes against people when they're casing/attacking their partners is def. possible, I'd just be a little surprised that they chose to do it if they're scum instead of getting in Kovu's good graces and bussing a bit more to make sure they specifically make it to endgame.

[Gammagooey]

Hey fire+Kovu can you go over what you talked about around here when the D3 Dunn wagon was happening?

i was confused cause you made it sound like you could have easily gotten away with choosing a scumbuddy bc kovu gave you 5 options to choose from

that implies to me that there is someone in the 5 options that is a valid scumbuddy for you

fmpov and imo from even an objective pov there isn't one

that is kinda ? for me bc you were giving it as a reason for why you're not scum here

your explanation that the two statements of "i could have gotten away with it" and "kovu gave me five options" are unconnected is kinda a stretch for me to believe but idk. ima talk to kovu about this

ok kovu has assuaged my concerns

VOTE: Dunn

[Meuh]

Does Fire really need to bus to stay in Kovu's good graces? Like in a situation where tomorrow is Kovu/Fire and one of me/you/Fey, I don't really see Kovu not just killing the third person.

[Meuh]

I find the idea of a me/Marci/Fey/Dunn team hilarious considering 2233

[Meuh]

I really just can't bring myself to see Kovu as scum here.
Like on a surface level there's iffy things about her gameplay; but the way like every confirmed townie agreed on her being town + her content (especially day 1/day 2) looking very genuine kinda stops that from making sense. It doesn't click in my mind

[Gammagooey]

you have a point, Kovu did have that one blowup at fire d2 that I think scum-fire would very badly want to avoid happening again, but scumfire pushing on other scum would prob be less important than then going along with Kovu's reads/thoughts in the neighborhood

gotta get back to work in a min but I'll check out flipped people's opinions on Kovu d1/d2 later

[Meuh]

no, Bell do not hardclaim, idk why gorilla is even calling out a PR softclaim, like, we're not limming bell, why is that even a thing? like, "I think this is a pr!!" how is that in town's best interest?

I think Kovu's stance on Bell here looks quite good, too

gl with work!

[Gammagooey]

Went over some old stuff for a fair bit

There were several people saying Kovu was town, a lot of the reasons were pretty minimal that I could find or were just "consistent with her towngame" but VPB & gorilla's stood out
VPB said that she was acting like the game revolved around her and that thinking that way was +town - I don't think it only comes from town but I'd agree that that behavior is more likely to come from town than scum on its own

gorilla mentioned his marci push which the first two posts of voting+pushing do make sense as scum potentially bussing and expecting that people wouldn't hop on, but going back over the 3rd post he linked (2134) I maybe didn't give that enough credit - the 2nd paragraph of 'marci's making an easy push on me' makes sense as either town or bussing scum, and the complaining about 'people hate me why do I try' on its own could come from scum but the frustration of "you're shooting it down b/c I said it" right before the probably genuine frustration is actually much more likely to be coming from town than scum

Also found this from fire from around all the end of day 2 shenanigans that feels pretty gross in hindsight, taking what I said about "hey if Dunn's scum here shouldn't you re-consider on gorilla" and turning it into "Lukewarm's TMIing Dunn as town"

@Luke - Again, you don't have to answer this right away b/c you're low on posts

but if Dunn flips scum, isn't that a pretty good reason to not vig/Invictus gorilla? Considering that he would be right about at least your reasons for finding Dunn-town being bad, if not (assuming you're town) your actual alignment? It feels like you're going all-in on gorilla scum even when a Dunn-scum flip objectively makes him much less likely to be scum.

this is actually a very good point and if luke is scum it may be TMIing dunn as town

gorilla paired with dunn makes not much sense, and luke says that he is willing to elim dunn as long as he still gets to shoot gorilla after??

the only way i can see that statement making any sense as town is if he is 100% deadset on gorilla scum and wants to shoot him out no matter what. but then why be okay with a dunn elim? in that world he should be fighting hard to lim someone else because he should think dunn is town. and if he thinks dunn could be scum, then why would he still want to 100% shoot gorilla? it sounds like he already knows what dunn will flip

[Fey]

(Forces myself to wrench open this thread.)

Still think this is Kovu's towngame.

Meuh/Fire's a tempting team tbh.

Kinda don't think it's Gamma/Fire. That feels weird to think about based on interactions but I should backread to check this eventually.

Meuh/Gamma is also possible. Probably just bus-laden right now by virtue of necessity.

Feels like mafia definitely wanted to kill me, probably still do, but R+R's getting in the way of that so there's a lot less that they can work with.

[fireisredsir]

had a bit of a weird day that didn't leave any mental room for thinking about this, will try to do so tomorrow

[Rhyme and Reason]

my plan is still just to sheep Gorilla and Bell and kill meuh

~Rhyme

[Meuh]

Exhilarating

[Meuh]

At this point it's about finding one of the 2 townies in the pool of 4 we have. Not really confident that's going to be done.

[Meuh]

Will the other townie please raise their hand? would be helpful