Mafia Invictus Redux [Game Over]

[Gammagooey]

Meuh and Fey if you remember can you go over what your thoughts on Dunn were around/right after the peak of his wagon on day 3?
Meuh you mentioned that you didn't want the day to end early but joined Fey on Enchant pretty soon after

Fey can you give specifics for what posts there were where you liked how Dunn was approaching things and why you thought that?

[fireisredsir]

Hey fire+Kovu can you go over what you talked about around here when the D3 Dunn wagon was happening?

yea sure

- kovu saying that she is tunneled on gamma, but bell wants dunn over gamma, i agree. im kinda tunneled on meuh at the time
- kovu says that cakez has gotten townier in the hood and she thinks he's town now (idr how much of this made it into the thread but she thought he was scummy in there for a while)
- us talking about how people forgot about dunn and were tunneling cakez instead, and how we were glad to see votes on him now
- im still hesitant about cakez and then we have some spec about the town claims, end up considering if val could be scum
- kovu wants to vote dunn but isn't sure yet and wants to take a step back to see what happens. i feel kinda similar but am more focused on meuh. this is around where cakez is the main wagon and cakez voted dunn
- kovu is kinda going back and forth on dunn, some points for scum and some points for town
- i ask if cakez ever questioned her TR on him, and then we talk about cakez for a bit, she explains more about how he acted in their hood, basically says she thinks he's never scum here. i say dunn's narrative for why cakez is scum doesn't really make sense
- we talk some more about dunn and cakez. some discussion about the whole gamma broken link thing. then after thats over we both think dunn is the best direction to push next, but both also think that enchant is like on every possible team.
- i say that cakez is concerning me and ask her if the narrative he's giving in thread fits with what happened in the hood
- she says dw about it, he's town, what he said fits with what actually happened
- we talk about it a bit more and i decide ok good enough and dunn is probably just scum here
- i say that meuh's vote on dunn scares me bc i still think she's scum but that i will stay strong, we both talk about meuh being likely scum
- some talk about enchant not hammering, and dunn being impossible to lim, some talk about meuh/dunn pairing with meuh looking for an excuse to jump off dunn, wagon kinda dies here

[fireisredsir]

reading through that reminded me of how i was very sketched out by meuh and dunn both going for fey right off the bat, and then gamma pushing that despite SRing dunn all game

it felt like people were trying to shove an elim through on either fey or cakez. me and kovu both agreed it felt like scum were in control there

one of my hangups for meuh/dunn/gamma was idk if they all push together like that in the same direction?? but ig maybe they just thought they could get away with it?

[fireisredsir]

and also found a comment i made in the hood on 2441 which was that i felt like the dunn points were a lot better than the fey ones... which on the one hand, okay, so he's pushing harder for the one that has flipped scum so far... but the thing is that he actually wasn't really? even though the case is better?

gamma can you talk about why you were focused more on pushing fey there instead of dunn at the start of the day?

[fireisredsir]

-The confidence on Cakez scum for "rule of 3" with her/cakez/gorilla (and apparently other reasons that I can't find more of other than "he was biased on marci")

also how is this a point for fey being scum? why would she bring up the rule of 3 thing if it was actually true?

[Kovu]

Does someone wanna go analyze some Dunn wagon VCs? there were definitely wagons on Dunn this game... you'll win some town points if you do it and have a good analysis
if not, I'll do it later, just a tad busy irl right now

[Gammagooey]

and also found a comment i made in the hood on 2441 which was that i felt like the dunn points were a lot better than the fey ones... which on the one hand, okay, so he's pushing harder for the one that has flipped scum so far... but the thing is that he actually wasn't really? even though the case is better?

gamma can you talk about why you were focused more on pushing fey there instead of dunn at the start of the day?

I went over it when I voted Fey originally D3 - from the marci interactions Fey looks the worst out of anyone in the game, and I thought (and still think) the Datisi investigation is probably a lie because it didn't look like it had any thought put into it, and it would be burning literally half of Fey's claimed power doing it. Maybe if you ignore my initial post D3 about Fey then you could say the points on Dunn were stronger than the ones on Fey but I don't really see that being the case including that - And after re-reading and posting that I was very happy to kill either of the two that day and I think that's pretty clear from my posts+vote on Dunn afterwards. Also as a sidenote, by the time I posted in thread for the first time D3 (D3 start was 2am my time) at 9something am, Dunn had already voted Fey, hopped off, and never voted Fey again for the rest of the game. I just said the previous day that I was fine voting for a scumread even if another scumread of mine was voting them (with marci & Meuh voting them) and it turned out to work quite well, my thoughts/philosophy on that didn't change overnight.

VOTE: Fey
It looks like Dunn and Meuh already went into this a bit but Fey definitely looks the worst from D1 play at a glance - was one of the people suggesting marci-town for meta, votes were Datisi->Bell->VPB->marci with a caveat that she doesn't even like the wagon->Dwlee

Dwlee investigate is understandable but Datisi investigate doesn't make sense to me personally - if you're gonna use a 2-shot detective role n1 and basically make it variant tracker, is theoretical Datisi-scum really going to make the kill when he's been tunnelled by marci all day? And remember this is from Fey's perspective so with a marci town-read she presumably wouldn't have "Marci+Datisi scumbuddies" as anywhere near a likely possibility given her d1 read on marci

I don't think it has more than a tiny chance of happening but no quick elims til after I can go over more stuff plz

----------------
This is somewhat obvious but prob needs to be said for whoever suggested Cakez dead just to stop neighborizing from happening given Val's claim - Cakez can presumably just stop using his neighborize ability at this point

Haven't done much re-reading aside from a skim of marci's iso and going over Fey a bit yet - I get why people are saying Cakez was overconfident on marci but I'm still leaning him-town. Meuh I'll probably go over more tonight, her gorilla & marci thoughts in particular were ???? but man does that feel borderline suicidal to do with marci as a scumpartner

Also I got a fruit and a T-shirt last night which probably came from VPB given his flip?

Yeah looking at EOD when Marci was giving her suspicions she had me/gorilla/Cakez. Just gonna rule of three this and move on assuming Cakez is a hit.

Didn't I just go on a rant about how "rule of 3" is dumb lazy garbo in Slaughter Hour? it's fine to use with other info but using on its own is terrible

-The confidence on Cakez scum for "rule of 3" with her/cakez/gorilla (and apparently other reasons that I can't find more of other than "he was biased on marci")

also how is this a point for fey being scum? why would she bring up the rule of 3 thing if it was actually true?

She looks the worst out of any player in the game until she gets mad at R&R, and it's an easy reason to push two townies (particularly Cakez). I don't think Fey-scum expected to live longer than both of them, and given both her level of effort and that she's pushed pretty much exclusively on town (with the possible exception of Meuh who's still unflipped) I definitely don't think Fey has been playing a long-scum game focused on looking town and surviving to endgame here. Assume Fey is scum here - do you think her plan has been literally anything except "kill as many townies as possible before I get elim'd/invictus'd"?

[fireisredsir]

I went over it when I voted Fey originally D3 - from the marci interactions Fey looks the worst out of anyone in the game, and I thought (and still think) the Datisi investigation is probably a lie because it didn't look like it had any thought put into it, and it would be burning literally half of Fey's claimed power doing it. Maybe if you ignore my initial post D3 about Fey then you could say the points on Dunn were stronger than the ones on Fey but I don't really see that being the case including that - And after re-reading and posting that I was very happy to kill either of the two that day and I think that's pretty clear from my posts+vote on Dunn afterwards. Also as a sidenote, by the time I posted in thread for the first time D3 (D3 start was 2am my time) at 9something am, Dunn had already voted Fey, hopped off, and never voted Fey again for the rest of the game. I just said the previous day that I was fine voting for a scumread even if another scumread of mine was voting them (with marci & Meuh voting them) and it turned out to work quite well, my thoughts/philosophy on that didn't change overnight.

what's weird to me is the initial push onto fey d3. it feels like you came in with a plan, not like you were pushing your strongest scumread

idk how voting alongside a scumread (i assume you're talking about voting fey even though dunn did?) is really relevant to what i was talking about

but anyway speaking of your scumread on Meuh, can you talk about your progression there? you had her as a scumread for most of d2, and even when voting Marci you said that meuh could possibly be bussing her. im not really sure how you got from there to feeling like they were unlikely partners (and we've already been over that) to then having her at the top of your reads in 2951. and then now it feels like you have her in a "let's deal with this later" pile, but like... you should probably be dealing with it now?

the post where you're campaigning to gorilla that dunn and meuh can't be partnered in 2866 before dunn has flipped is also kinda sketchy imo

[Gammagooey]

what's weird to me is the initial push onto fey d3. it feels like you came in with a plan, not like you were pushing your strongest scumread

I had spent a little time going over a few posts between the marci flip and D3 starting, going over marci interactions, with Fey's in particular standing out, then read up on what had happened D3 so far after waking up, and posted my vote+thoughts on Fey before switching over to focusing on work for the day. Objectively I was prob going to vote Fey at the start of the day based on that bit of rereading unless a scum or something else particularly surprising flipped over night 2 but aside from that "coming in with a plan" is p. much just wrong.

but anyway speaking of your scumread on Meuh, can you talk about your progression there? you had her as a scumread for most of d2, and even when voting Marci you said that meuh could possibly be bussing her. im not really sure how you got from there to feeling like they were unlikely partners (and we've already been over that) to then having her at the top of your reads in 2951. and then now it feels like you have her in a "let's deal with this later" pile, but like... you should probably be dealing with it now?

the post where you're campaigning to gorilla that dunn and meuh can't be partnered in 2866 before dunn has flipped is also kinda sketchy imo

I went over a big chunk of it in the post where I actually described why I didn't think Dunn & Meuh were scum together in the first place

Meuh I've read over pretty much her whole iso now at this point and still feel conflicted. One thing I wanna bring up is that I think that Meuh & Dunn are pretty damn unlikely to be scum together. The gorilla pushes, and now the Fey push, and the way they behaved around marci is just too similar in a game where any scumbuddy could die at any time to Invictus and one person's read on you can end your life, and I think it makes a lot more sense that Meuh got blinded by her friend's play than Dunn. If I'm wrong about Dunn then I think she's at least a reasonable guess at scum, but also I think it's likely I was overly tunneled on her gorilla push - I still don't like it and it's probably going to be bouncing in the back of my brain every now and again until either she's deceased or the game's over, but if I put most of that aside, I do think her point about scum seeing the setup as more town-sided than it is and vice-versa was more likely to come from a town mindset than scum even if I don't agree with its conclusion of gorilla being scum, her marci questioning+mentions day 2 in particular were generally reasonable and definitely at least felt better than the random pointless pokes it felt like Dunn was giving to marci, and similar to her point on gorilla I like her post 1287 where she goes over what she thought was iffy about Cakez and reconsiders a bit that she may have disliked where Cakez's focus was but acknowledges that she's not sure how justified that was in retrospect.

Aside from that I liked her day 3 posting and the sudden possibility that gorilla was actually scum (in something like a Fey/gorilla/??? scumteam) made her imo the worst elim between the people actually being considered.

[fireisredsir]

Aside from that I liked her day 3 posting

what about it did you like, specifically?

also, what was the point of asking for a summary from the hood of stuff around the dunn wagon? did you learn anything from that? what were you hoping to learn?

[fireisredsir]

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

also, can you walk me through what you were thinking when you made this post?

[fireisredsir]

@Meuh - Dunn Fey and a deepwolf - probably one of fire/Kovu, and if I had to say this instant I'd say Kovu. I know that people will think that opinion is garbo but I really think that one scum has likely been putting a ton of effort into the game and set themselves up to actually live through the ridiculous number of Invictus shots this game has, because otherwise you're just asking to get gunned down halfway through the game by random Invictus shots.

The thing is that effort isn't really something you just assign players?
Like if scum ended up with none of the players in the game putting a very high amount of effort in, that doesn't mean suddenly one of them is going to change their playstyle for that purpose.
Scum might just be significantly losing rn, who knows? I don't see why we'd make the assumption they weren't.
It's optimal for scum to have high effort players yes but no one in the history of mafia has ever played a game optimally.

You're right about the *effort* in general being more player-based than alignment-based a lot of the time

But if scum is all in <Enchant/Fey/Dunn/you> then I think they've set themselves up to lose by not having one player bus convincingly or make some sort of claim shakeup to try to salvage the game here, gorilla I've had a strong town read on the whole game and has made a likely suicidal claim of bodyguard, Cakez doesn't make sense as scum with my two strongest scumreads of Fey/Dunn, and Val I guess I am overlooking a bit because of the traffic Analyst claim fitting tbh? Fey/Dunn/Val does make sense too tbh, I just haven't given it really any thought until now since them both claiming PRs today made it much more likely that one of them gets elim'd in the near future.

Okay but look at that pool.
I am town
Fey and Dunn were seemingly just not around near EOD
Enchant literally can't bus convincingly based on playstyle

So... yes I think ordinarily they would try something of the sort, but within the circumstances? It sounds pretty much impossible

If the scumteam is literally Fey/Dunn/Enchant then I don't really think it's possible for town to lose this game and tbf MAYBE every like 1 in 10 games you get lucky and the game really is that simple

But I do have a decade worth of games on site and a nice little wiki page to display most of 'em that tend to have a lesson of "if you assume the scumteam all played bad and you've solved the game early, you will probably get your shit rocked in unless you continue putting in effort as town and at least consider unlikely people as scum and re-read and discuss things to see if that's actually the case"

The reason I'm saying you or Fire has to be the deepwolf (if there are any, which Gamma seems to think) is that no one else even meets the towncred criteria to be one.
Bell and R&R are confirmed.
Cakez, Fey, Dunn, Enchant and I clearly weren't/aren't townread enough to be deepwolf.
Gorilla, Val and Gamma were more trusted, but still had significant doubt cast against them.
You and Fire are the only ones that actually fit the criteria of what a deepwolf is.
I think you've asked later why I don't think Gamma can be a deepwolf and I mean the answer is that he literally can't be a deepwolf. His name has been thrown around as potential scum way too much to be one.

ok, wait

gamma makes the case that if there's a deepwolf it has to be me or kovu bc we're the only ones who have been townread enough through some combination of effort or bussing to qualify

the logic is just straight up wrong, bc deepwolves are not always successful. they don't always get widely townread. the only thing that scum can control is the inputs that they put in. they can do the effort or the bussing, but sometimes they just don't get townread for it. that doesn't mean they aren't trying to be a deepwolf

i push back on this in 2623. at the time i think it's towny that gamma is making this mistake bc ive seen town make it before, but knowing now that he used this kind of logic to rule out both meuh as a dunn partner (where he would know that dunn was flipping scum if he were scum here) and also meuh as a deepwolf is... very sketchy

and meuh's immediate reaction is to push back on it too. she recognizes correctly that the logic is wrong (although she's using that to say "maybe all the scum are low effort" rather than "maybe someone put in effort but didn't get townread"), and okay, that's fine

but then

300 posts later she's using exactly the same logic to rule out gamma as a deepwolf, saying that he isn't townread enough to count even though it's entirely possible that he tried to put in the effort or the bussing but still just didn't manage to get townread. it's the same logic and they're using it to townread each other and divert onto me and kovu

[Meuh]

Meuh and Fey if you remember can you go over what your thoughts on Dunn were around/right after the peak of his wagon on day 3?
Meuh you mentioned that you didn't want the day to end early but joined Fey on Enchant pretty soon after

Fey can you give specifics for what posts there were where you liked how Dunn was approaching things and why you thought that?

To me Dunn made a lot of sense as scum from interactions with Marci, so I was on board with the wagon.
I’m generally weary of day ending early, though tbh I’ve mellowed down on it recently. Tbh later on in the day I wished I had kept my vote there because I was tired of the day.
I like having my vote always participate in the game proactively and I rarely just unvote or refuse to vote, unless we’re in like MELO.

Enchant made sense as scum since he was pretty much a universal partner and I was satisfied with the limpool we had, so hunting more there worked with me. In my eyes there was like 1 scum in {Gamma, Gorilla, Val} and 2 scum in {Enchant, Dunn, Fey, Cakez}. Dunn and Enchant in my eyes were the most likely scum and seemingly could be partnered. Fey I had gotten tonal townpings from on day 3 and tbh I don’t remember exactly what I was thinking on Cakez at the time. I think he had a string of posts I liked around the time I unvoted Dunn? I do know that I ended the day leaning town on him, though.

Fire townreading Dunn and excluding him from his limpool later on in the day didn’t help with making a Dunn lim more likely in my eyes. I just wanted some sort of compromise as a town but it wasn’t happening, so I voted wherever I thought was the best place to make sure we could secure a lim in the limpool. Dunn seemed unlikely to happen.

[Meuh]

gamma makes the case that if there's a deepwolf it has to be me or kovu bc we're the only ones who have been townread enough through some combination of effort or bussing to qualify

Isn’t that what I said, not Gamma? I think you’re conflating whose post is whose

[Meuh]

the logic is just straight up wrong, bc deepwolves are not always successful. they don't always get widely townread. the only thing that scum can control is the inputs that they put in. they can do the effort or the bussing, but sometimes they just don't get townread for it. that doesn't mean they aren't trying to be a deepwolf

I think we fundamentally view what a deepwolf is differently. To me there’s 3 factors that need to be met:
1. Be scum
2. Have high thread presence or otherwise put a lot of effort into the game
3. Be widely townread

To me what you describe as an “unsuccessful deepwolf” is just scum with high effort or thread presence. Being townread is a prerequisite to being a deepwolf, to me.
I think you’re also arguing from the perspective of “whoever the scumteam tries to use as a deepwolf is by default a deepwolf” while I define it from the perspective of a deepwolf being someone that actually practically fulfills a specific role in the game.

[Meuh]

and meuh's immediate reaction is to push back on it too. she recognizes correctly that the logic is wrong (although she's using that to say "maybe all the scum are low effort" rather than "maybe someone put in effort but didn't get townread"), and okay, that's fine

but then

300 posts later she's using exactly the same logic to rule out gamma as a deepwolf, saying that he isn't townread enough to count even though it's entirely possible that he tried to put in the effort or the bussing but still just didn't manage to get townread. it's the same logic and they're using it to townread each other and divert onto me and kovu

Remember when Kovu made a similar argument against me on day 4? Literally right before you voted for me? and I spent several posts replying to that specific point?
Quoted the posts in question for you

Meuh.. I found this interesting, you commented on 2611 twice, the first time you were very critical of what gamma said, then the second time in your explanation to me, you were like "it's townie logic" that is definitely NOT what you said the first time you read it... actually, I just saw that and I think it's a slip, so yeah. good job!! Gamma is Meuh's partner.

Yeah, cause Gamma's logic that there must be a deepwolf was wrong, and I disagreed with it, that's what stuck out to me then. Things like that are things I notice on almost every posts, the basic premise being presented is what sticks to me, my brain was not in "hey, is Gamma town over this" mode.

Recently I've wanted to take a good look at Gamma's push on you and when I took a look, that post stuck out to me as being based in townie logic. That's not something I noticed on my first read of it, but looking back on it specifically focused on the push on you and the posts made leading up to it, it looked good.

I looked at the post at different times, focused on different aspects of them, with a different mentality, and unsurprisingly different things stuck out to me about it.

"I disagreed with it" cause we call things townie logic we disagree with...

Yes, unironically. Town use bad logic sometimes.

how do you know there's not a deepwolf?

Kovu assuming the absolute worse of everything I say: part 592
Gamma’s logic for a deepwolf boiled down to “scum must have some sort of control over the game” or something of the sort. I’m not saying there is or isn’t a deepwolf, I’m saying Gamma’s logic for it doesn’t make sense. Scum could very well just not be playing that well. That entire point was unrelated to my personal thoughts on whether or not there’s a deepwolf.

really? cause I even told you that's how your posts were reading.. I was giving you my genuine points for why I SRed Gamma, and your response was basically "no! gamma town!!"

MY BRAIN WAS NOT IN THAT MODE WHEN WRITING 2614.
IT WAS INDEED IN THAT MODE IN 2989. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT I'M MAKING.

[Meuh]

Also sorry for not being around much yesterday, I’m a bit sick

[Fey]

Okay well.
VOTE: Meuh

I don’t have a lot to say because ai physically don’t remember what I thought in this game anymore and trying to go back reaps nothing. I’m at the end of my mafia player lifecycle like a cicada.

I’m of the opinion that Meuh > Gamma > Fire is a winning path right now. Even if Meuh flips town (I don’t feel that, her vibes feel different after spectating her as town in a game that just ended) townies just point their Invictus shots at Gamma.

[Fey]

Means I’ll probably have to go against a scum!fire at the end which is. >_> Because they will outpost me by a mile but oh well.

[Kovu]

ahh sorry I'm not doing anything, I'm good with this, and I'll do what I wanna do at night. I'm pretty certain Fey is town

VOTE: Meuh

(but like, there's no point in just dragging this out when all yall seem done... sorry I've just been busy IRL)

[Meuh]

VOTE: Fire good luck guys! Hope you can still win it

[Gammagooey]

Okay well.
VOTE: Meuh

I don’t have a lot to say because ai physically don’t remember what I thought in this game anymore and trying to go back reaps nothing. I’m at the end of my mafia player lifecycle like a cicada.

I’m of the opinion that Meuh > Gamma > Fire is a winning path right now. Even if Meuh flips town (I don’t feel that, her vibes feel different after spectating her as town in a game that just ended) townies just point their Invictus shots at Gamma.

Means I’ll probably have to go against a scum!fire at the end which is. >_> Because they will outpost me by a mile but oh well.

Why would you say that if you actually think both Meuh & I are likely to flip scum here? you only go against scum!fire if you are all of a)town b)not-invictus'd c)you're wrong about one of Meuh/me being scum which you pretty clearly aren't putting any actual effort into parsing despite being perfectly fine with both of us dying and you viewing the possibility of fire in 3p as a likely loss for you

Like why are ya'll ignoring EVERYTHING that I've been saying about Fey for days now about her marci & Dunn interactions where she defends marci and completely ignores Dunn and the cases on him, pushes either entirely or almost entirely town for the entire damn game, and then posts shit like this that's saying "well I think they're scum but I probably still have to deal with fire tomorrow won't that be shitty >_>", like ACTUALLY WHY? It makes no damn sense for that to be coming from town, she's completely ignored everything I've said about marci & dunn both when I said it and how likely town I am because of their interactions with me now that they've flipped, and she's done nothing town for DAYS now and is probably wondering how the fuck you all are just letting her coast and get away with it, it's fucking absurd

fire I'll get to your questions in a couple min

[Fey]

...the logic's right there. "If Meuh flips town."

If Meuh flips town > shoot you > I 1v1 Fire.

I'm not saying that I think Meuh will flip town, literally in 3267 I said I don't think that's likely. I'm just putting out the world because it's a possible one but it's not a total loss if she is and I'm wrong.

/shrug

[Meuh]

VOTE: Fey Worth a shot

[Gammagooey]

Aside from that I liked her day 3 posting

what about it did you like, specifically?

also, what was the point of asking for a summary from the hood of stuff around the dunn wagon? did you learn anything from that? what were you hoping to learn?

She seemed open and excited to be playing & scumhunting immediately after a scum elim (like felt very open to discussing who scum was and trying to hash it out and figure it out together), and I agreed with her reads a lot more D3 than I did on previous days (particularly she pushed Fey/Dunn at different times through the day and her read post in #2766 felt good).

Spoiler: a bunch of day 3 Meuh posts for reference

I think the way Cakez is setting up me/Marci as a scumpair while she's receiving votes might actually mean they're S/S here and I don't like the shade.
Though Cakez' later posts regarding Marci don't really feel partnered so he might just be wrong

TMI?

There's a lot of worse Meuh posts on marci but this bit struck me as particularly notable from her ISO. I think this is 2/3 right here.

I had a thought and I posted it

VOTE: SirCakez we can see if this flips scum. I kinda like Fey's last few posts either way
Honestly I've barely thought about Cakez since the clear because I assumed he was just town

Also do you think my vote on Marci was a bus? Cause I was the one who started the cute little vote chain that ensued. This is for Gorilla but also anyone else who thinks I might be scum here. If it is, do you think the other votes were coordinated? Who are the other scum who bussed with me?

Pedit: That readslist is fine tbh. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the other 3 people in the scumpool actually be maf
Ehhh tying Fey's alignment to the presupposition of me flipping scum is iffy
But like overall the thought process is fine

I feel like with the way the game is set up, I'm probably inevitably getting invictus shot or limmed.
That should be fine though, since I think we're still oriented towards a win either way.
Worthy sacrifice!

Is it just Marci/Cakez/Dunn/Enchant?
Or could Fey be scum still
hmm
I have doubts on Val or Gamma being scum
I suppose Fey could still be scum though
I'm somewhere like this:

Meuh
RR, Bell

Fire, Kovu

Gorilla
Val
Gamma

Fey
Enchant
Cakez, Dunn

Gamma if you had to throw 3 names out right now and if they were all scum we insta won, who would those 3 be?

@Meuh - Dunn Fey and a deepwolf - probably one of fire/Kovu, and if I had to say this instant I'd say Kovu. I know that people will think that opinion is garbo but I really think that one scum has likely been putting a ton of effort into the game and set themselves up to actually live through the ridiculous number of Invictus shots this game has, because otherwise you're just asking to get gunned down halfway through the game by random Invictus shots.

The thing is that effort isn't really something you just assign players?
Like if scum ended up with none of the players in the game putting a very high amount of effort in, that doesn't mean suddenly one of them is going to change their playstyle for that purpose.
Scum might just be significantly losing rn, who knows? I don't see why we'd make the assumption they weren't.
It's optimal for scum to have high effort players yes but no one in the history of mafia has ever played a game optimally.

@Meuh - Dunn Fey and a deepwolf - probably one of fire/Kovu, and if I had to say this instant I'd say Kovu. I know that people will think that opinion is garbo but I really think that one scum has likely been putting a ton of effort into the game and set themselves up to actually live through the ridiculous number of Invictus shots this game has, because otherwise you're just asking to get gunned down halfway through the game by random Invictus shots.

The thing is that effort isn't really something you just assign players?
Like if scum ended up with none of the players in the game putting a very high amount of effort in, that doesn't mean suddenly one of them is going to change their playstyle for that purpose.
Scum might just be significantly losing rn, who knows? I don't see why we'd make the assumption they weren't.
It's optimal for scum to have high effort players yes but no one in the history of mafia has ever played a game optimally.

You're right about the *effort* in general being more player-based than alignment-based a lot of the time

But if scum is all in <Enchant/Fey/Dunn/you> then I think they've set themselves up to lose by not having one player bus convincingly or make some sort of claim shakeup to try to salvage the game here, gorilla I've had a strong town read on the whole game and has made a likely suicidal claim of bodyguard, Cakez doesn't make sense as scum with my two strongest scumreads of Fey/Dunn, and Val I guess I am overlooking a bit because of the traffic Analyst claim fitting tbh? Fey/Dunn/Val does make sense too tbh, I just haven't given it really any thought until now since them both claiming PRs today made it much more likely that one of them gets elim'd in the near future.

Okay but look at that pool.
I am town
Fey and Dunn were seemingly just not around near EOD
Enchant literally can't bus convincingly based on playstyle

So... yes I think ordinarily they would try something of the sort, but within the circumstances? It sounds pretty much impossible

Maybe Dunn's town and this is like Enchant/Cakez/hidden wolf
I wonder if Fey bussing Cakez is like an actual possibility or if that wouldn't make sense regarding her push, I should check it out again

Can we just get like a Dunn lim through and point our invictus in the POE?

It's unlikely we don't flip any scum that way

Note the maybe
I don't have anyone to bounce my ideas off of in private, sadly, unlike about half of the players in this game
Also the plan I just mentioned proposes an invictus shot following your lim, which is even more potential to hit scum. (I think you flip red at this point anyways)

You've generally interacted with me weird this game I feel but maybe that's me being self-absorbed.

Sigh.

I’m sorry.
Gorilla, Rhyme, meuh, Fire. Tell me who you want to be on and I’ll go with it.

meuh or fey, i guess. i don't actually think cakez has been towny at all lately so id be fine with him too. kinda don't want dunn anymore, enchant is fine

VOTE: Fey
Let's just get something through, please

The Day 3 deadline is in (expired on 2022-06-21 01:00:00).

I will self-hammer if it comes down to it. Better than nolim.
This day has been frustrating and the fact we can't coordinate a lim with 2 conf towns and 2 almost universal townreads is ???
Idrc at this point let's just narrow the POE and move on, hopefully with 2 new flips and traffic analyst results to help out

Who do you consider to be scumreading Gorilla, and why did you distinguish that slot from the other two also voting voting?

Are you scum reading gorilla?

Presumably your point with that post is you started a new wagon on Fey (nobody was voting her, I've just gone back to answer that question myself) because you didn't feel like there was anyone you could really sheep; correct?

To me, everyone falls into 4 categories

Conf town

Bell, RR

Very likely town besties

Fire, Kovu

Have a significant chance of flipping scum but should not be limmed today due to being less suspicious than those in the limpool and/or because they likely will have their alignment be resolved through mech play

Gorilla, Val, Gamma

Limpool

Cakez, Enchant, Dunn, Fey

So that's why Gorilla's distinguished from Fire and Kovu, he doesn't exist in the same space in my mind.
Also isn't Enchant literally voting for him? I know Enchant is to be taken with a grain of salt, but still.
Plus I have my own doubts about him, I'd say Gamma flips scum more than you or Gorilla, but based on play Gorilla's scummier than you.
The only thing making me think you might be scum more often than Gorilla here are the claims. Protective being real sounds more likely than another information based role. (Though imo 1-shot cop + FN + traffic analyst is not impossible in the slightest)

You might be correct - I didn't go back and count, hence why I said 'I believe'.

How many people were voting for Fey?

Yeah, I don't think you were deliberately overstating the Cakez wagon to go after me, I just felt it was relevant to point out because it seems to be at the root of that point you made against me.

I know you already mentioned 0 people were voting for Fey, but that's not particularly relevant to me tbh. No one other than myself had more than 2 votes so there weren't really any wagons set in stone. I think looking at who people were/weren't willing to lim through their words is much more significant than just looking at vote counts and nothing else when only 2/7 votes needed were on anyone I was considering. Because of all of this, I don't think a lack of votes made Fey and unviable lim by any means.

Anyone else thinking Enchant is scum here? I don't really see a world where they aren't at this point

VOTE: Enchant yay!
This is good timing because Cakez' last few posts look good
I think Dun flips scum slightly more often than Enchant; but the point about an Enchant lim needing to happen at some point is very true.

Pedit: <3 BFFs

Looks like my theory was right

which theory?

The Marci/Gorilla scumteam one

If you are right you can nominate me for twat of the year for scumreading you for voting/casing gorilla over marci in the first place

i also think this makes meuh very unlikely paired with gorilla. calling out two partners as S/S on d2 seems kinda throwy

this is like 90+% devil's advocate/my own annoyance talking

but I'm p. sure you mentioned some of the gorilla/marci posting from Meuh being potentially tmi before - would gorilla being scum make it feel substantially different to you? And regardless of whether gorilla flips scum, does her potential tmi on marci feel that different from Cakez's pushes on marci that you thought could be bussing?

also, can you walk me through what you were thinking when you made this post?

I think it was this post that your comment on gorilla/marci not be paired together reminded me of

1) the start of d2 push on gorilla. its already been pointed out how strange it was, saying that gorilla looks paired with marci and then voting gorilla. but with marci flipping scum i think it might just straight up be tmi. newer scum have that issue a lot i think, where they look for fake associatives with their scum partners in order to tie them together but do it before the partner even flips. the reasoning in 1365 for why she's going after gorilla instead of marci is p weak and her whole response to the pushback on it kind of feels like she realizes she messed up and is going into damage control mode.

It felt weird that you'd make that argument for Meuh being potentially scum for tmi, and then if she turned out to be right on BOTH of them being scum instead of just one then your argument for Meuh being scum for wouldn't be valid anymore.
The 2nd part of my post (whether that potential tmi felt similar to Cakez's) was as I said 90% annoyance that you were wrong on Cakez when I spent a good chunk of day 3 arguing that I could see Cakez being town, and wanting to know why/if you thought your argument for Meuh potentially tmi'ing previously was valid and still worth listening to/being confident in when I felt that most of the arguments for Cakez scum were similar "tmi" type arguments that he pushed too hard without reasoning and you were dead wrong on that.