House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[Firebringer]

*their

Posts 72 74 and 75 in the Dissenter thread.

sorry this doesn't mean anything to me - i mean at what point / how many pages was the main thread when she did that?

Posts made during Day 1 after king selected, prior to council selected and before Maria shot obvi.

[mastina]

So just after my post in here...?yesterday? (Idk, when literally every method of communicating with the outside world is cut off for a long time, you kinda lose track of time), we got the ultimate wombo combo:

No cell service, presumably due to a cell tower being down. (Until an hour ago or so, it was still down; I'm phoneposting because it thankfully FINALLY came back, since it's been down since like Tuesday night or so, idk time blends when isolated.)

Snowed in, so no ability to go into an area where we can communicate. (We live a 30 minutes drive from the nearest town. No ability to drive due to too much snow = no ability to enter the civilized world AT ALL.)

And then, both our power and internet going out.

Even when one part got fixed, the others remained.
Still got no internet (tjo thankfully, have powers), so literally Ll I can do is phone posting.

I do wanna say tho, stay the fuck away from Johnny Suspicion.

Rhaenyra is town by every metric, including having been the second-hardest pusher of Dwlee. She is legic the ONLY person aside from Dariso who had a real scumread there. She was the only one pushing them outside of Dwlee. She was the only one actively CASING Dwlee.

It wasn't in the main thread because she ran out of posts, but she very much pushed Dwlee HARD--even going

against me

in doing so.
I was defending Dwlee there, Rhaenyra kept pushing Dwlee after I defended Dwlee there--which is all the proof in the world that you need that, no, Rhaenyra was NOT pocketing me.

Loathed as I am to agree with Fire, he's absolutely right in his Rhaentra defense. (Of what he said before I lost connection is what I remember it was, at least.)

[Firebringer]

Mastina are u making shit up.
I don't even remember rhae had a read

[Lady Lambdadelta]

So just after my post in here...?yesterday? (Idk, when literally every method of communicating with the outside world is cut off for a long time, you kinda lose track of time), we got the ultimate wombo combo:

No cell service, presumably due to a cell tower being down. (Until an hour ago or so, it was still down; I'm phoneposting because it thankfully FINALLY came back, since it's been down since like Tuesday night or so, idk time blends when isolated.)

Snowed in, so no ability to go into an area where we can communicate. (We live a 30 minutes drive from the nearest town. No ability to drive due to too much snow = no ability to enter the civilized world AT ALL.)

And then, both our power and internet going out.

Even when one part got fixed, the others remained.
Still got no internet (tjo thankfully, have powers), so literally Ll I can do is phone posting.

I do wanna say tho, stay the fuck away from Johnny Suspicion.

Rhaenyra is town by every metric, including having been the second-hardest pusher of Dwlee. She is legic the ONLY person aside from Dariso who had a real scumread there. She was the only one pushing them outside of Dwlee. She was the only one actively CASING Dwlee.

It wasn't in the main thread because she ran out of posts, but she very much pushed Dwlee HARD--even going

against me

in doing so.
I was defending Dwlee there, Rhaenyra kept pushing Dwlee after I defended Dwlee there--which is all the proof in the world that you need that, no, Rhaenyra was NOT pocketing me.

Loathed as I am to agree with Fire, he's absolutely right in his Rhaentra defense. (Of what he said before I lost connection is what I remember it was, at least.)

So much snow. If you need help LMK

[Firebringer]

Omg 3 posts mastina.
Here are "Rhae hard scum pushed dwlee".
Rhae quoted my post in the PT of me saying dats is king of the north and voting dwlee.
Rhae says "no"
Then she later gets into a small fight with dwlee.
Says 'someone tell me that dwlee 100% can't be scum' this doesn't even look like a scumread it. It literally seems like it stems from her having an argument with dwlee.

come on. this is the SECOND HARDEST PUSHER of dwlee.

[Andante]

LLD: obviously you KNEW…
lmao bruh… I saw 2 challenges, went, “you wanna pick a fight with me? I hope I die lol”

like dude… I was skimming council chat, they were talking about powers, and I was reading that like “what is happening?” and only then realized math died, obviously I’m on top of this, and you read me begging people to unvote Dwlee as “OMG ANDANTE SCUM” instead of looking for their reactions and see who wants to unvote…. whatever I don’t even freaking care

[Firebringer]

dwlee/rhae don't look partnered in the pt.

[ProfessorDrapion]

@Shea

Give power to me so I can die next.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Seems to be a trend.

And we all know what happens when I get tracker ability.
Look what happened to Bella In Lost.

[Enchant]

Why mafia keep killing trackers

It's fucking dumb

[Roden]

Char/Maria, Luke

Was townreading both of them before they flipped, sick zinger tho, you get a point.

Not gonna reply to the rest of your post since it seems like you're more interested in arguing than re-evaluating

Is this a serious post

Literally all of your posts is just telling me you disagree and that I'm wrong, but I've been pretty open to re-evaluating as I gain new info. Several of my reads have shifted over the past few days so I don't know how you could say that and actually mean it.

Actually what is the point of that reply, Roden? If scum me was faking an inaccurate scumread on ChariaR, why did I swap my vote to Dwlee at a crucial juncture of D1??

I think town!you should be a bit more open to re-evaluation when so many of your scum reads/suspected slots died early and flipped town.

Also you explained why you would vote Dwlee earlier? Thread momentum against Dwlee prevailed, didn't it? Or does that only apply when Dwlee was up against your counter wagon?

Spoiler: Big quote

so the fact that you're making such claims feels like... you are guessing what dwlee *should* be thinking, and claiming they're going against that, and i don't see evidence for what made you think that.

Datisi, I don't follow you on the Luke/Dwlee TMI point, specifically I think this claim is where the breakdown is. It's not hard for me to imagine Lukewarm seeing himself as the same level scumread for Dwlee as you based on these posts:

HURT: Lukewarm

Yeah yeah,I read the post, and I can't find the seven days thing

Did someone ask this is the scum pt and you forgot?

I want to say that this is town, because what scum is going to fake this argument

I don't think this is legit

Uh not datisi or lukewarm I got bad vibes when I was here before

hi dwlee why do you have bad vibes from me and lukewarm

You contradicted yourself on a townread on someone else by not townreading me, and I didn't agree with lukewarm calling junko town for making a silly argument

like yes Dwlee never explicitly said "My two (2) biggest scumreads are both Lukewarm and Datisi, at equal strength", but I don't think it's unreasonable for Luke to see how Dwlee has repeatedly scumread/shaded him alongside you and conclude that you're both Dwlee's main scumreads. And then I don't think it's weird for Luke to point out that Dwlee hasn't really mentioned Luke since, it's kinda just a sub-point of your larger point that Dwlee isn't really demonstrating any serious intent to solve.

so I agree with you Dwlee's play is still dodgy here fwiw I just don't see the Luke-Dwlee associative and I think you're kinda tunnel vision there.

@unwnd, am I right in understanding the point of your 1856 is that scum!Dwlee would be leaning harder into their personality/emotions/'quirk' to defuse pressure on themselves, and the fact that they're not doing that is 1) genuine and 2) not-survivalist, therefore town? How many games have you played/specced with Dwlee as scum that gave you this impression? I can see where you're coming from in that maybe Dwlee's play here isn't

scummy

, but I still feel a vortex of a complete absence of towniness from their play/reads, and still think that makes them a good lim since if they continue engaging at this shallow level I'm never gonna be comfortable letting them get close to endgame. and I've definitely had games with town!Dwlee before where I got townvibes and did not feel this way

Also in what universe does scum!GL with scum!Dwlee who wants to push town!Luke, write this post and then NK Luke??

Can you explain the issue here?

You wanted Drap dead early on, and you've shaded and discredited Andres at different points.

Actually also wanted to call out this is just a blatant falsehood, at no point have I wanted Drapion dead or shaded Andres. Like if you think this you're reading a different game than the one we're playing

Uh...gonna just assume you forgot. But this wasn't particularly hard to find.

has left literally no impression on me whatsoever, would lim on that basis

: {Charloux, Drapion, Penguin Power}

like whatever, I heavily suspect Titus/Dwlee/PenguinPower/Charloux/Bellaphant like, there's a solid number of scum in that pool, I am 1000% confident

GL to be honest I really dislike this pool. In a game where the Scum need to come out of their shell and make themselves likeable so that they’re picked for positions of power, all of the people you’re suspecting have not done that. I find that completely implausible.

actually I think it's kinda weird you zeroed in on this post and seemingly missed or didn't want to comment on like... the entire rest of the debate/back and forth I was having with Andante? Did you miss that Andante had said the same sentence just a few posts before about a Datisi/GL/VPB/Dann/UNOwen bloc of players? Did you have thoughts on my more measured and thought out replies to her?

so fmpov, knowing my alignment, after I got the King I voted for, I haven't gotten a council I've wanted, a single flip I've wanted this game, and I'm about to be limmed.

Are you? My assumption is that we're going to end up executing dwlee, unless they become magically obvtown when they next have time to post.

actually yeh I guess not, I thought there were more votes on me and when I saw Andres waffling I misread the momentum. obviously I'd prefer if Dwlee goes

[Roden]

All of that and then bragging for the past few days that you can totally prove my meta assessment of you wrong, and then backing out when I tell you what my meta assessment is, just doesn't come from town IMO. I don't see what you have to lose by linking the kinds of games I'm looking for, I told you multiple times now that I'm open to re-evaluation, and even if you think I'd just tunnel you anyway I don't see how that's a particularly bad thing? If your linked games prove my claims wrong then people will just see it; it's not like I'll be able to form a mob to vote you out either way, but it'll be obvious that I'm not actually open to re-evaluating you if people see that your games blatantly contradict my assessment and I still continue to claim I'm right anyway.

[VP Baltar]

She was the only one actively CASING Dwlee.

lol alright. Keep leaning into the absurd. It's going very well

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Execution Vote Day Three

With seventeen players alive - it will require nine votes to eliminate a player.

JohnnyFarrar [3]:

VP Baltar, GuiltyLion, Unowen,

Roden [2]:

Datisi, Andresvmb,

Unowen [2]:

ProfessorDrapion, Andante

Dannflor [1]:

mastina,

not voting [9]:

JohnnyFarrar, Dannflor, Lady Lambdadelta, Titus, furtiveglance, Firebringer, Roden, Enchant

Execution Deadline: (expired on 2022-12-08 14:58:35)

mod note

Your post counts have been added to this post


to find how many posts you have remaining in the day, simply subtract your d2 post count from your current post count to see how many times you've posted already

[VP Baltar]

Roden, if GL is scum, why are you not voting him? Also, who else is scum? Why are you convinced Johnny is town?

[furtiveglance]

If I'm on the Kingsguard tonight I'm overthrowing the entire Council

[Thestatusquo]

I'm finding this game kind of exhausting to keep up with because of the three threads.

I'll try to be present and caught up tonight.

[GuiltyLion]

I think town!you should be a bit more open to re-evaluation when so many of your scum reads/suspected slots died early and flipped town.

Can you explain the issue here?

But my point (that you've completely missed) is that I

had already re-evaluated

on those slots and was no longer scumreading them by the time they flipped town, and this is clear in my ISO if you are reading it honestly and assessing me with an open mind. The joke/point behind my 2/3 comment was referring to slots that I actively currently seriously wanted to see flipped, Luke & ChariaR do not fall under that category because I

had them as town and no longer wanted them flipped

.

Throughout your time in this game you've framed my Luke scumread as this permanent thing I stuck with all game, when I very clearly worked my way to town Luke by the EOD1. It might not be quite as obvious to you because some of it happened in the supporter PT, but it feels like you're ignoring or missing this point completely in your campaign to paint me scummy for my read & interactions with Luke. so which is it.

[GuiltyLion]

for the second half of your post.... are you serous?

having Drapion in a null tier of slots I would lim is a far cry from "wanting him dead". That single reads post is not "wanting Drapion dead". At no point did I vote Drapion, at no point did I case Drapion, as soon as Drapion started posting & engaging more (because he hadn't played the game at all at the time of my readslist post), I sorted him town. It's a huge misreppy reach to see that single reads post and call that me "wanting Drapion dead".

and neither of those posts are discrediting or shading Andres? 1778 is a genuine attempt to engage with Andres, those questions are for me to understand him better and it actually did become clear from his reply that he missed the Andante post I was making fun of, thus clearing up a misconception. The second post, what are you even talking about? are you understanding that post correctly? My point in that post was I saw Andres waffling on his read on me and considering eliminating me, that's not shade or discredit at all, that's exactly why I felt like my lim was likely to happen, because I think Andres is town and was being swayed to vote me.

I'm seriously having a hard time thinking you actually believe your argument here, because it feels like a hugely intentional misrepresentation. Your initial claim that I was scumreading/OMGUSing these slots because they suspected me. Nothing in those posts is me scumreading/OMGUSing those slots, and the posts you quoted as "evidence" are all either a) not me suspecting them at all (1778, 2716), and/or b) from before they indicated any suspicion on me (1085 with Drapion as a null slot, 1778). And the whole thing is disregarding a mountain of context of me actively townreading those players throughout the entirety of my ISO.

are you serious here?

[GuiltyLion]

All of that and then bragging for the past few days that you can totally prove my meta assessment of you wrong, and then backing out when I tell you what my meta assessment is, just doesn't come from town IMO. I don't see what you have to lose by linking the kinds of games I'm looking for, I told you multiple times now that I'm open to re-evaluation, and even if you think I'd just tunnel you anyway I don't see how that's a particularly bad thing? If your linked games prove my claims wrong then people will just see it; it's not like I'll be able to form a mob to vote you out either way, but it'll be obvious that I'm not actually open to re-evaluating you if people see that your games blatantly contradict my assessment and I still continue to claim I'm right anyway.

alright, this was the post I was waiting to see if you'd make, bet. I didn't want to do it because I don't think you've been very clear on what it is you think is not characteristic of my townplay beyond "AtE" and "scumreading your whole wagon" (which I didn't do this game, so already kind of a difficult criteria), but I am pretty sure if I spend an hour or so today I can at least dig up some similar instances of times of me getting angry that I'm being cased/voted for bullshit and yelling at people about my reads because I think I'm about to die and be ignored. And for a fun bonus I'll grab some times I've color coded in similar ways before too.

it is going to take me some time though so after I do this you better drop your push on me entirely and start actually pushing scum, or else I'm gonna just vote park you after we get Johnny flipped

[Dannflor]

Hear ye, hear ye! Gather round my faithful friends and traitorous backstabbers. Let me spin the story of this game. And the story of how those vile of heart seek to overthrow our righteous king and seed themselves into a place of power.

Act I: A Game of (a) Throne

Throughout the course of our dealings and arguings, we see

five

vying candidates for the throne. Among them:
★ The fair Lady Lambdadelta
★ The calculating Lord VP Baltar
★ The dashing Lord Dannflor
★ The wise Lord GuiltyLion
★ The late Lady Junkochan

Yet, none of these candidates were chosen. Instead, support and momentum was rapidly gained for the handsome Lord Shea, and he was seated upon the throne, ending the day's discussions.

What does this story tell us? Firstly, we must take note of the fact that the support of Lord Shea was unlike any other wagon, in that it grew out of very rapid momentum instead of building up slowly over the course of fortnights. As we can see by the papyrus below, myself, Lord GuiltyLion, and Lady JunkoChan were largely responsible for this shift in the crowd's favor, with Lord UNOwen and Lord VP Baltar adding their voices to the Will of the People shortly after.

Thestatusquo [6]: Bellaphant, Dannflor, GuiltyLion, Junkochan, Unowen, VP Baltar

If we examine the virtuousness of this support, I must conclude that it is quite virtuous indeed. Forsooth, when I look inside my own heart, I see only green. The late Junkochan has already made her heart of hearts vastly known. In my soul searching I have found Lord GuiltyLion, Lord UNOwen, and Lord VP Baltar to be quite virtuous in their own rights as well. Thusly, we can conclude that the support for Lord Shea as King of these lands was pure. The momentum built too quickly for the traitors among us to interfere with, they couldn't possibly have had the chance to. Thus, the crowning of King Shea was a decision made by those with the best intentions. Does this information alone lead us to conclude that King Shea is pure of heart himself? Not necessarily, but it does beckon the question, why significant support built for King Shea before this time?

Follow an old man's whimsy for a moment, if you will, imagine this: A band of traitors wishes to infiltrate our fair government and poison our lands. The King is the most powerful position in these lands. They will assuredly be throwing support behind at least one of their kind, whether directly or indirectly, no? A potential band of traitors would also desire to place a person strong in deception in the crown position, for it is a seat that will forever change the fate of the nation if held onto for an extended length of time. But this person was not Lord Shea, despite his skills in diplomacy making him a strong candidate if he were ill of heart.

Act II: A Traitorous Candidate

Thusly, I stand tall and accuse Lady Lambdadelta of being a traitor in our midst.

I find it not just unlikely but high improbably that the traitors, regardless of their composition, would not deign to attempt a wagon on one of their own early in the course of our proceedings. Do I agree with the virtuous Lady Mastina that it is likely that several candidates for the Throne were ill of heart? No. I think that's bullshit.

Okay this schtick was really fun and got me reading and thinking about the game again but it's taking far too long to type and I'm worried some clarity will be lost. Basically, I think when you look at what scum actually tend to do in games, they like to minimize associatives (especially in such easily trackable ways as voting together) and I think scum would be especially tentative to try and wagon multiple scum members for the King position. Also... just logistically, 5 people is not enough to really boost 3 people significantly enough for that to be likely. What I think is much more likely, is that the scum team decided early on one person on their team who was positioned best and also maybe a more experienced "high profile" player to try and subtly wagon to the King position. I happen to think this slot is most likely to be Lady Lambdadelta.

I know I'm town. Also, my wagon was an RVS wagon but I'm including it here anyways. JunkoChan/Mathblade is confirmed town. GuiltyLion is my strongest town read in the game I think? Which I can explain later. And VP Baltar is probably town not for the sheer effort or the crackpot strategies or the sheer amount of people town reading him but for a combination of all those things and more. I can explain this too but I haven't put as much effort into this read because it seems fairly consensus and if Baltar is a deepwolf I don't think now is the time to catch him.

This leaves Lady Lambdadelta, who I think my gut instinct on D1 was correct. I think her mechanical focus on the game especially in 256 is... more LAMIST than anything else. Like, of course, people are going to want to avoid putting scum in the King Seat. I thought at the time that LLD's reaction and focus was disproportionate to what was actually happening in the thread, and I think it's because she was the one on the mafia team specifically angling to be King (or Queen in this case).

This is reinforced by the fact that she promotes UNOwen as her candidate for King. The thing is, I think UNOwen is town, but Lady Lambdadelta never spent any effort trying to *convince* anyone of that opinion. Despite the fact that promoting someone town to King is the most important thing in LLD's eyes, she doesn't spend any time actually advocating for UNOwen. To me, UNOwen strikes me as a choice who is never actually going to get promoted without someone like LLD putting in effort to case it. This is not meant to offend UNOwen, but I think there was a certain type of player that was being considered as King early on in the game and I don't think UNOwen fits that stereotype. UNOwen also definitely wasn't getting widely town read without help. I feel like this was an intentional choice so people could be like "oh look how towny LLD is being trying to promote someone else we should promote her instead" by not letting her push actually get any traction.

Lady Lambdadelta [4]:

mastina

,

Charloux

, Titus, Rhaenyra,

Anyways, the height of LLD's wagon. She never actually got a lot of traction. And I mean, I wouldn't expect the whole scum team to actually rally behind someone here, that would be too obvious. I also think, given what I think the composition of the scum team might be, they might not have felt very comfortable given how D1 played out. But I do think both Titus and Rhae have high partner equity with LLD.

Titus votes LLD for supposedly NAI reasons but later justifies a soft town read of LLD in 769

Rhae ALSO votes LLD for supposedly NAI reasons "to break the tie" (despite campaigning hard for mastina all of D1) and later slide LLD into her second choice for King/Queen in 1241 without prior explanation.

I think this is exactly what scum supporting a potential scum candidate for the throne would look like. Soft enough to have plausible deniability but still trying to convince others that she is a viable candidate.

Act III: The Conspirator's Demise

I don't think Rhae campaigning so hard for mastina is town indicative. I think it's more likely that Rhae would campaign that openly for a townie she can TMI and pocket as scum. Largely though, I hate unwnd's interaction with Dwlee and I feel like the way he was hardcore pushing other wagons but simultaneously sussing/sorting Dwlee felt... not very genuine. Like he wanted to kill in Charloux (town) or Enchant, which were both very similar slots to Dwlee, but town read Dwlee on meta reasons, but also seemed very confused by Dwlee's play like in posts 2086 and 2105. It doesn't really feel like real progression or interaction on either side. To me, it reads like someone who was hyper aware of dwlee's alignment and whose first priority was to setup as natural looking of interactions as possible.

Titus, like I don't know, this is my least strong scum read out of the three, but she's done nothing. I know this is rich coming from me, but even when Titus has been here and posting she has been self admittedly coasting.

I absolutely think Dwlee was bussed. There is no way they weren't bussed by at least one maybe two scum members. But probably only after momentum built on them. Titus fits the MO of hopping on the wagon and *hard bussing* dwlee through D1 in 2361 despite trying to push alternate wagons for VCA purposes a few hundred posts earlier. I think it's likely the scum changed tune and started hard bussing Dwlee only when it looked like momentum wasn't swinging off of Dwlee (which I think could be fair to suspect given the way momentum originally grew on Dwlee). Titus fits this spot.

Who else is scum? My hip shoot is the Roden/Penguin Power slot because they also fit a similar slot as Titus in only really committing to bussing after the momentum was there to stay. Professor Drapion I had a weird reachy town read on D1 and I kinda want to hold on to that. furtiveglance/enchant I don't town read.

=================

tiers unordered

[guiltylion, datisi, vpbaltar, unowen, shea]

[andres, adante, professor draopion?, firebringer]

<if there's a deepwolf or shallowolf I'm missing I most probably think it's in this tier

[furtiveglance, enchant]

[roden, titus]

[Lady LLD, Johnny]

VOTE: LLD

I feel very most strongly about my GuiltyLion, Shea, and Lady LLD reads and I also expect those to be somewhat controversial so I'll spend more time talking about those in detail soon but not now because my fingers hurt and I need to work

[Dannflor]

I am fine with the Johnny wagon too obviously but I feel like slightly more confident on LLD and I'll explain why tonight

[Dannflor]

overall I do kinda subscribe to the theory that this scum team is largely composed out of beaten down or demotivated slots (but not me lol)

this game is hard to keep up with as a townie and I imagine the cognitive load is even higher for scum

so largely I think the consensus reads are moving in the right direction and we just need to shore up some of the bad blood between who I think are townies

[Lady Lambdadelta]

That is quite possibly the worst case I've ever read, it contains quite literally nothing but conjecture about the shape of the game based on unflipped associative reads and wagonomics, and the wagonomics aren't even done correctly given that the majority of that 4 vote wagon you pointed out is town, and the person pushing hardest for me to be queen (Mastina) is CONFIRMED town.

It also does not escape my notice that you are shooting this shot only after I've attempted to re-engage with this game, and that instead of looking for associatives with the FLIPPED SCUM YOU ELIMININATED yesterday you are attempting to lead down a different path.

Now, there's some bias here know I'm town, but, given that and given your case uses a lot of words and flash and pomp and circumstance without actually saying anything, this reads to me a little more like you decided to scumread me and came up with reasons why as opposed to the inverse, though you sure tried hard with listing all the people who were theoretically vying for the throne.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hear ye, hear ye! Gather round my faithful friends and traitorous backstabbers. Let me spin the story of this game. And the story of how those vile of heart seek to overthrow our righteous king and seed themselves into a place of power.

Act I: A Game of (a) Throne

Throughout the course of our dealings and arguings, we see

five

vying candidates for the throne. Among them:
★ The fair Lady Lambdadelta
★ The calculating Lord VP Baltar
★ The dashing Lord Dannflor
★ The wise Lord GuiltyLion
★ The late Lady Junkochan

Yet, none of these candidates were chosen. Instead, support and momentum was rapidly gained for the handsome Lord Shea, and he was seated upon the throne, ending the day's discussions.

What does this story tell us? Firstly, we must take note of the fact that the support of Lord Shea was unlike any other wagon, in that it grew out of very rapid momentum instead of building up slowly over the course of fortnights. As we can see by the papyrus below, myself, Lord GuiltyLion, and Lady JunkoChan were largely responsible for this shift in the crowd's favor, with Lord UNOwen and Lord VP Baltar adding their voices to the Will of the People shortly after.

Thestatusquo [6]: Bellaphant, Dannflor, GuiltyLion, Junkochan, Unowen, VP Baltar

If we examine the virtuousness of this support, I must conclude that it is quite virtuous indeed.

Forsooth, when I look inside my own heart, I see only green. The late Junkochan has already made her heart of hearts vastly known. In my soul searching I have found Lord GuiltyLion, Lord UNOwen, and Lord VP Baltar to be quite virtuous in their own rights as well. Thusly, we can conclude that the support for Lord Shea as King of these lands was pure.

The momentum built too quickly for the traitors among us to interfere with, they couldn't possibly have had the chance to. Thus, the crowning of King Shea was a decision made by those with the best intentions. Does this information alone lead us to conclude that King Shea is pure of heart himself? Not necessarily, but it does beckon the question, why significant support built for King Shea before this time?

Follow an old man's whimsy for a moment, if you will, imagine this: A band of traitors wishes to infiltrate our fair government and poison our lands. The King is the most powerful position in these lands. They will assuredly be throwing support behind at least one of their kind, whether directly or indirectly, no? A potential band of traitors would also desire to place a person strong in deception in the crown position, for it is a seat that will forever change the fate of the nation if held onto for an extended length of time. But this person was not Lord Shea, despite his skills in diplomacy making him a strong candidate if he were ill of heart.

Act II: A Traitorous Candidate

Thusly, I stand tall and accuse Lady Lambdadelta of being a traitor in our midst.

I find it not just unlikely but high improbably that the traitors, regardless of their composition, would not deign to attempt a wagon on one of their own early in the course of our proceedings.

Do I agree with the virtuous Lady Mastina that it is likely that several candidates for the Throne were ill of heart? No. I think that's bullshit.

Okay this schtick was really fun and got me reading and thinking about the game again but it's taking far too long to type and I'm worried some clarity will be lost. Basically, I think when you look at what scum actually tend to do in games, they like to minimize associatives (especially in such easily trackable ways as voting together) and I think scum would be especially tentative to try and wagon multiple scum members for the King position. Also... just logistically, 5 people is not enough to really boost 3 people significantly enough for that to be likely. What I think is much more likely, is that the scum team decided early on one person on their team who was positioned best and also maybe a more experienced "high profile" player to try and subtly wagon to the King position. I happen to think this slot is most likely to be Lady Lambdadelta.

I know I'm town. Also, my wagon was an RVS wagon but I'm including it here anyways. JunkoChan/Mathblade is confirmed town. GuiltyLion is my strongest town read in the game I think? Which I can explain later. And VP Baltar is probably town not for the sheer effort or the crackpot strategies or the sheer amount of people town reading him but for a combination of all those things and more. I can explain this too but I haven't put as much effort into this read because it seems fairly consensus and if Baltar is a deepwolf I don't think now is the time to catch him.

This leaves Lady Lambdadelta, who I think my gut instinct on D1 was correct.

I think her mechanical focus on the game especially in 256 is... more LAMIST than anything else.

Like, of course, people are going to want to avoid putting scum in the King Seat. I thought at the time that LLD's reaction and focus was disproportionate to what was actually happening in the thread, and I think it's because she was the one on the mafia team specifically angling to be King (or Queen in this case).

This is reinforced by the fact that she promotes UNOwen as her candidate for King. The thing is, I think UNOwen is town, but

Lady Lambdadelta never spent any effort trying to *convince* anyone of that opinion.

Despite the fact that promoting someone town to King is the most important thing in LLD's eyes, she doesn't spend any time actually advocating for UNOwen. To me, UNOwen strikes me as a choice who is never actually going to get promoted without someone like LLD putting in effort to case it. This is not meant to offend UNOwen, but I think there was a certain type of player that was being considered as King early on in the game and I don't think UNOwen fits that stereotype. UNOwen also definitely wasn't getting widely town read without help. I feel like this was an intentional choice so people could be like "oh look how towny LLD is being trying to promote someone else we should promote her instead" by not letting her push actually get any traction.

Lady Lambdadelta [4]:

mastina

,

Charloux

, Titus, Rhaenyra,

Anyways, the height of LLD's wagon. She never actually got a lot of traction. And I mean, I wouldn't expect the whole scum team to actually rally behind someone here, that would be too obvious. I also think, given what I think the composition of the scum team might be, they might not have felt very comfortable given how D1 played out. But I do think both Titus and Rhae have high partner equity with LLD.

Titus votes LLD for supposedly NAI reasons but later justifies a soft town read of LLD in 769

Rhae ALSO votes LLD for supposedly NAI reasons "to break the tie" (despite campaigning hard for mastina all of D1) and later slide LLD into her second choice for King/Queen in 1241 without prior explanation.

I think this is exactly what scum supporting a potential scum candidate for the throne would look like. Soft enough to have plausible deniability but still trying to convince others that she is a viable candidate.

Act III: The Conspirator's Demise

I don't think Rhae campaigning so hard for mastina is town indicative. I think it's more likely that Rhae would campaign that openly for a townie she can TMI and pocket as scum. Largely though, I hate unwnd's interaction with Dwlee and I feel like the way he was hardcore pushing other wagons but simultaneously sussing/sorting Dwlee felt... not very genuine. Like he wanted to kill in Charloux (town) or Enchant, which were both very similar slots to Dwlee, but town read Dwlee on meta reasons, but also seemed very confused by Dwlee's play like in posts 2086 and 2105. It doesn't really feel like real progression or interaction on either side. To me, it reads like someone who was hyper aware of dwlee's alignment and whose first priority was to setup as natural looking of interactions as possible.

Titus, like I don't know, this is my least strong scum read out of the three, but she's done nothing. I know this is rich coming from me, but even when Titus has been here and posting she has been self admittedly coasting.

I absolutely think Dwlee was bussed. There is no way they weren't bussed by at least one maybe two scum members. But probably only after momentum built on them. Titus fits the MO of hopping on the wagon and *hard bussing* dwlee through D1 in 2361 despite trying to push alternate wagons for VCA purposes a few hundred posts earlier. I think it's likely the scum changed tune and started hard bussing Dwlee only when it looked like momentum wasn't swinging off of Dwlee (which I think could be fair to suspect given the way momentum originally grew on Dwlee). Titus fits this spot.

Who else is scum? My hip shoot is the Roden/Penguin Power slot because they also fit a similar slot as Titus in only really committing to bussing after the momentum was there to stay. Professor Drapion I had a weird reachy town read on D1 and I kinda want to hold on to that. furtiveglance/enchant I don't town read.

=================

tiers unordered

[guiltylion, datisi, vpbaltar, unowen, shea]

[andres, adante, professor draopion?, firebringer]

<if there's a deepwolf or shallowolf I'm missing I most probably think it's in this tier

[furtiveglance, enchant]

[roden, titus]

[Lady LLD, Johnny]

VOTE: LLD

I feel very most strongly about my GuiltyLion, Shea, and Lady LLD reads and I also expect those to be somewhat controversial so I'll spend more time talking about those in detail soon but not now because my fingers hurt and I need to work

Like I encourage every townie to read through this case, ignore the pomp and cirucmstance of the flavour and flash Dannflor is using, and read the points Dannflor is trying to make. I'll help you above by highlighting any lines that contain actual thoughts or summations of Dannflor's points.