House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[VP Baltar]

Owen would have clearly been who I suspected. Like without a doubt. That play would be so transparently stupid.

[Firebringer]

i live more in the unowen scum world than
johnny scum world.

If johnny flipped scum im more likely to consider unowen is town here but like this argument of vocalizing push to kill king to me seems at best in favor of the scum team which would net him points and at risky for getthing him focused for trying to actively kill a town king and get him focused next few days and possibly killed by king. So i net it neutrally in terms of alignment.

Like the risk in my mind is not on the success its literally the fact pushing to kill a town king imo is going to raise eyebrows next few days after king dies. Not this 'ohh but Johnny survived' what is going on with that?

[VP Baltar]

I mean, I'll think about it and do some rereading of Owen. I can't really say I'm opposed to that yeet. I do prefer Johnny because I don't find the town Rhae arguments very convincing, but I'm willing to compromise if that's town preference

[Firebringer]

r u always like this is as town to be so willing to compromise.
I find that ur constant acts of like "ohh we can do this but i don't prefer it" or "if the town wants we can do this" extremely alarming. It was how i first got this tinfoil theory on u to begin with how u approached urself as king. Like why would u be opposed to it or net neutral on it. At worst i think town would go "yeah sure lets do it" and i don't strike u as a person who is like "i don't want the responsibility" or "i don't think i would make good picks" u seem to have firm opinions on plenty so the fact u go milquetoast agreeable on a few things that i find so strange when it doesn't seem to connect with ur other strong thoughts so wild.

Its like ur playing two different characters and u switch whenever it suits the time. At one point u go strong here are my arguments and this is why im right and you all should listen to me (normal town behavior), the next you go "well if this is what we do im fine with it but you know its not my first option" and its not like it seems ur frustrated or even truly want a cohesion in the town. It just seems like ur avoiding the spot light or responsibility for these decisions.

Its really been fucking with me thinking about it.

I dont really know ur town game. I don't know what ur doing half the time that makes u switch like this.

[Firebringer]

Sometimes u seem to pro town that i go "this has to be an act" because i don't know many players who play so pro town that they don't let their ego get the best of them and ive yet to see you really fall into what i call a town ego trap. Very weird.

[Firebringer]

Maybe i should just listen to dats. He knows u best here i guess.
ur behavior just seems fishy to me.

[VP Baltar]

The way I play town is push what I think is correct, but I try not to be unwilling to compromise. I still think I'm right, and you can see where my vote is...but I'm just being honest with you about where my Owen feelings are. It wouldn't shock me if Owen was scum and my read is wrong there.

I think you've seen plenty of me this game when I feel strongly about a position and advocate for it. Blind stubbornness isn't useful though.

[VP Baltar]

or even truly want a cohesion in the town. It just seems like ur avoiding the spot light or responsibility for these decisions.

This is the part you're flat wrong about though. Almost everything I do is for town cohesion, including looking for acceptable compromises.

As far as responsibility, I would say I made a hard bet on GL town and dwlee scum this game that was correct and paid off. Had that gone the other way, it's silly to say I wouldn't have had to be responsible for those consequences.

[UNOwen]

Lets get the unowen wagon going if im no one is objecting to it.
I know ive had like 6-7 people who say scum.
Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.
What is going on with people vocal in PTs about unowen scum and no one acts on it.

The frustration of scum not getting traction on what they think should be an easy mislim. My sympathies.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Andante also made a Town Case on Dwlee during early stages of the game before Dwlee’s execution day.

So do you think everyone who didn't want dwlee yeeted is town? I don't understand your thought process at all this game.

What are you asking exactly mate?

Bruh, it ain’t even mathematically probable for all the Dwlee voters to be town.
If that’s what your suggesting.

Nice change of subject.

You said because andante towncased dwlee early, her slot is towny...which doesn't make any fucking sense. I'm asking you how that makes sense to you, because it doesn't make any to me.

I can’t tell if you’re doing miss conception on purpose or not but you said.
“So do you think everyone who didn't want dwlee yeeted is town?”
Which confused me so I responded to it and you shade me for it? Like what? Lol.

Also I did not say the town case makes them Townie or at least not that I remember.
But it’s something to take account and I’m not sure why they would bother to make a case on their partner in our PT, like as strong of a case they did.

The main reason I said the slot is town is again due to how Dwlee mentioned Andante and Char/Maria in that response I mentioned.

It’s great to wolf read someone mate but it’s like I feel you’re trying to get rid of town spew by calling these wolfy or at least that’s what I’m getting out of this from you.

You before seemed content on Johnny no? So why are you connecting them as well with Andante?
Are you trying to remove players from our PT?
Have members of our PT gone? Why? Do you think our PT contains a majority wolves cause I think the opposite.
Also Andante and Johnny’s slot interactions would be very odd coming as theatre, especially when Dwlee was responding with them.

[ProfessorDrapion]

or even truly want a cohesion in the town. It just seems like ur avoiding the spot light or responsibility for these decisions.

This is the part you're flat wrong about though. Almost everything I do is for town cohesion, including looking for acceptable compromises.

As far as responsibility, I would say I made a hard bet on GL town and dwlee scum this game that was correct and paid off. Had that gone the other way, it's silly to say I wouldn't have had to be responsible for those consequences.

What really bothers me is how you’re so convinced GL is town.
Why are you so convinced and why can’t they be bussing as I explained on how GL switched votes twice day 1.

This is why I have you both as aligned, so if your town sorry but I will probably end up tunnelling you if GL flips red and you never evaluated.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Also I ask people.

I mentioned how Dwlee was a

Planned Buss

Does anyone disagree?
If you do, say you do, explain yourself and then I’ll explain how Dwlee knew he was gonna be executed day 2 without a doubt.
I mean C’mon the dude would have been voted out day 1 if it wasn’t for the king.

[ProfessorDrapion]

Maybe i should just listen to dats. He knows u best here i guess.
ur behavior just seems fishy to me.

Man the dude has been fishy to me all game.
Maybe it’s an opinion based read but I have yet to see a Townie post from this guy.

[GuiltyLion]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

I think we are but with the Johnny wagon. If he's town he's a super easy lim at this point and if there's a scum deepwolf in GL/VPB like some believe, it'd be a good chance for a team with them to get a chance at Prince. So if we're in that world why does the thread seem stalled on a Johnny wagon? Why wouldn't scum vote him by now? He's not even been around to defend himself

[GuiltyLion]

I'm leaning town on UNOwen. When I was looking through my old games i took a glimpse at UNOwen ISO in Situation Room and people were mistakenly scumreading him for similar things as this game (asking questions that don't seem to lead anywhere, somewhat detached/aloof thread presence). I don't think it's alignment indicative for him and i don't think he's done anything this game overtly scummy, so I'm curious what the case on him is here

[GuiltyLion]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

Also how do you know whether scum were hesitant to bus Dwlee?

[GuiltyLion]

Also I ask people.

I mentioned how Dwlee was a

Planned Buss

Does anyone disagree?
If you do, say you do, explain yourself and then I’ll explain how Dwlee knew he was gonna be executed day 2 without a doubt.
I mean C’mon the dude would have been voted out day 1 if it wasn’t for the king.

I think Dwlee knew they were going down on D2 because they almost went down on D1, obviously, but I don't think that means scum planned to bus them at the start of the game. I would look for people who artificially increased in confidence on Dwlee from D1 to D2

[Firebringer]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

Also how do you know whether scum were hesitant to bus Dwlee?

i said this yesterday that there felt like a weird hesitation to vote dwlee.
still think that was hesitant on bussing. Not sure who but yes there was unspoken hesitation i was vibing in the thread at the time that i thought was weird as hell.

[furtiveglance]

Whatever happens today, I want TSQ gone tonight. Whether I'll want to overthrow the monarchy as a whole depends on their pick for Prince of Dragonstone, assuming JF is eliminated.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vote: fireisredsir

The previous slot was scummy, the replace out into a slot who hasn't impressed me is not helping. It's a lot of rapid "insight" to garner some kind of faith/favour but the reads it is producing seem fabricated more by what would assist slotting into the game state without a whole lot of justification beyond surface level.

We should be killing here today, given Dwlee flip and given Andante's defense of them.

[Enchant]

Whatever happens today, I want TSQ gone tonight. Whether I'll want to overthrow the monarchy as a whole depends on their pick for Prince of Dragonstone, assuming JF is eliminated.

I disagree

[Datisi]

Maybe i should just listen to dats. He knows u best here i guess.
ur behavior just seems fishy to me.

baltar still town.

i can see a world where fireisredsir is scum, but that is a very grim world. (still interested in those cases tho firered)

[Datisi]

k i reread the stuff fireisredsir put out in favour of johnny and i am not convinced.

VOTE: johnny

i find it weird that seemingly no consistent counterwagon is happening here again, but uh. the whole game is lurky so idk. this should be y-3. let's actually make something happen. (yes i am aware johnny got prodded. i don't mean kill him right now.)

[Datisi]

Are we doing a repeat of dwlee with hesitation to buss or something.

Also how do you know whether scum were hesitant to bus Dwlee?

i said this yesterday that there felt like a weird hesitation to vote dwlee.
still think that was hesitant on bussing. Not sure who but yes there was unspoken hesitation i was vibing in the thread at the time that i thought was weird as hell.

how does this fit with this:

really any alignment flip on dwlee will likely not change my mind on Shea. Dwlee!scum flip would lead me to believe theres definitely bussers that i will try to evaluate tho

[mastina]

So this was the post I was working on when my internet failed.

Mastina, I was also thinking about our argument re: the odds of Junko/VPB/GL all being scum and all being the most popular wagons for King overnight.

And I remembered reading this article that you wrote a long time ago. I loved this article and I completely agree with it! I think this is an excellent mindset when playing mafia.

I'm having a really hard time squaring the mastina that wrote that article with the mastina playing this game. Again, it's basic mathematical fact that the odds of scum not only pushing three separate team members, and additionally

succeeding

at doing so, is very low. Obviously we know now that Junko was town, but we didn't know that at the time of this argument and I'm really struggling to fathom why you were so hellbent on pushing all three King candidates as scum other than an explanation where all of us were town and you wanted to derail that momentum. Please help me understand why town!mastina pushes such an improbable narrative when we have documented evidence that mastina knows that mafia needs to be played on balance of what is

probable

, not

possible

.

we can discuss this postgame

I feel like bringing it up now.

The article has always remained accurate and continues to remain accurate now.

But you're the one who is in the wrong about what's actually probable.

Not me.

To say that mathematical probability translates directly to the practice of the game just because of theoretical numbers is to be disconnected from reality. I keep on bringing it up because it doesn't cease to be relevant: a miller in theory by the mathematical statistics acts as a negative utility role that gets guiltied by a cop--but if you were to argue possibilities versus probabilities of a miller actually being negative utility in being guiltied by a cop, it would never happen, because players developed the strategy of claiming millers.

That strategy disproportionately impacts the chances, turning what was a statistical plausibility into something that will never happen--ever.

Ergo, if you insist that something that is true by mathematical statistical odds by the theory of the game, is true in the practice of the game while ignoring the human element of the game that changes the theoretical odds, you are not in fact arguing for a probability; you are arguing for a possibility, that a human did not change the expected math in any way shape or form.

Which is, simply put: not the way the game works.

Humans change the math involved.

And many of these changes are mapped out by common factors the scum have control over.

The scum have five unified voices. The scum have information. The scum have communication. The scum have teamwork.

Whereas each town player is an individual. The town has to convince other town players about the alignment of players that the town player does not themselves know. The town do not work as a team from the onset. They have to develop a team (townblocs), whereas scum are given a team from the getgo.

The power of a scum team means that the scum have a force multiplier; the power of lacking a team and being purely as an individual acts as a force divider for town players.

So, in a game with 5 scum against 16 town, it is not the town having the force of 16 players versus the force of 5. If the town and scum were equally powerful, sure--but the town and scum are not equally powerful; the scum are notably MORE powerful. And the ways the scum are more powerful are in by being a team. 5 scum is loosely equal to ~20-25 players, versus the 16 of the town. That's a huge part of why the game is in a vacuum so scumsided: the scum have the power to coordinate, which the town simply lacks.

These patterns are the human aspect of the game--but they are not unchartable just because they are human.
And that's where

actual

possibility versus probability comes in.

Possibility versus probability isn't what is likely to happen when disconnected from all other circumstances.
Possibility versus probability is what is likely to happen

after the human element

.
It is a PROBABILITY that a miller would claim.
And it is a PROBABILITY that scum can use their coordination and teamwork to set a gamestate favorable to them. (Well. Kinda. That's more situational. Bad scum comms are common enough. But in any game with reasonably competent scum that don't have strong disharmony/discord in comms, their communication is likely to help them set a more favorable gamestate. Which is why it's a probability. Bad scumteams are in my experience the exception to the norm.)

It is a probability that scum can talk to each other.
It is a probability that scum can manipulate VCA in ways they believe will be favorable.
It is a probability that scum will attempt to disrupt town coherence.
It is a probability that scum will attempt to avoid chain-scum eliminations.
It is a probability that scum will set up interactions they believe will make at least some of them look good no matter what.
It is a probability that scum will try and get the town to waste power roles.
It is a probability that scum will try and circumvent the restrictions of town power roles. (Notably in this game, that can be done in multiple ways. Being the power role in question, denying it to the town. Influencing the holder of the role and by virtue of the holder, influencing who holds it to act in sub-optimal ways. Or when all else fails, killing the PRs.)
It is a probability that scum will try and get the town to eliminate town.
It is a probability that scum will try and set up TvT fights, not wanting to extended in repeated TvS fights. (Note the word there is 'repeated'.)
It is a probability that scum will use their talk to coordinate manipulations of the gamestate.
It is a probability that scum will use their coordination to offer feedback to each other. "Hey, do this thing." "Hey, don't do this thing." "Hey, I want to make a post with x y z, can you guys give feedback?". Etc.
It is a probability that scum will be actively trying to play to their wincon, and thus, by doing so, be trying to do the above.
And it is a probability that when scum do go down, that the scum tried to position themselves in a way that would make them look good.

Do you disagree with literally any of those probabilities?

'Cause if not (and you absolutely shouldn't if being intellectually honest, since they're self-evidently true), then when you put them all together:
It is not mere possibility that scum controlled the gamestate with the King nominations--it is

probability

.

Yes, one of the King candidates is confirmed as town already. (Junko slot.)
Yes, another of the King candidates is almost certainly town. (Shea himself.)

But the nominees being town does not mean that their wagons did not get strongly pushed and influenced by the scum.

And notably, not all influence comes from being on the wagon.
I pointed out how VP Baltar influenced the Junko wagon without himself being on it.
Same principle applies across them.

The scum don't need to be on a wagon to influence the game. Shutting down other wagons like Andante for instance is a way that increases the odds of a scum-preferred candidate to go through.

Which is why,

Spoiler: (my internet failed before I could quote the post from my iso I wanted, and I don't remember which post(s) it was, but it was among these)

The King is the most important decision in the game, as it sets the entirety of the game to follow.

The King literally gets to dictate

which players in the game are power roles

--don't fucking pretend that's not a huge thing.
The King gets to dictate the first player to die--which can set the tone of the entire rest of the game.

The King basically gets to set the flow for the entire rest of the game. Don't pretend this isn't true, everyone has pretty much argued this exact point in making their King choices from the getgo. A bad King sets a bad flow of the game, and a scum King sets a

scum flow

to the game.

That sounds like incentive to make a scum(-preffered) King to me!

And, yes, that gives scum extra incentive to try and look town. Trying to look town, yet not actually being town, has always been one of the biggest scumtells in existence. (The buzzword these days is LAMIST tho I'm not particularly fond of that term.)

But in this game specifically,

there is extra reason for that tell to apply

.

Because while in a normal game the reward for looking town is simply to avoid being eliminated,
In this game, the reward for looking town is

to become the most important part of the game

, having a high chance of becoming one of the power roles and thus denying town that particular role. It is specifically

trying to force towniness

that is scum--and you, Dannflor, and VP Baltar are all guilty of doing exactly that.
There are other players who

might

be guilty of that sin. (LLD for instance could be.) But you three are the only ones DEFINITELY guilty of it. My scumreads on you, Dannflor, and VP Baltar are because you are all being pro-scum while doing things that try to look town without actually being town.

There is a difference between statistical numbers in theory, And statistical numbers in practice.
In theory, a town miller is negative utility for a town, giving a cop a false guilty. In practice, millers just claim D1.

In theory, the mathematical odds mean that scum are less likely to be (in control of) the majority by sheer raw statistical chance.
But in practice, the scum being the informed minority means that they can

bend the stats

. Then can artificially shift the curve. They can manipulate the odds in their favor. By sheer raw math, the scum might have not as much influence, but by virtue of their information, that counterbalances the statistical disadvantage of numbers. The scum's information has

always

been more of an advantage than the scum's smaller size. Because scum know who the scum are and who the town are, scum get to control how they influence the game.
Scum get to control the direction they try to push the town in. Scum get to set the flow of things, or at least attempt to.

The game is not a game of pure math. The game is a game of human psychology. Which is where actual

real

possibilities versus probabilities come in. Mathematically speaking from a pure statistical mathematical perspective that is just theory, yes it is more probable for town to be voted up in this game, and less possible for the wagons to all be on scum.
But from the perspective of

practice

, of reality, the scum are

actively trying to avert the statistical outcome

. If scum fail to, they literally lose the game. It's their fucking job to make sure that town aren't elected into every position of power.
So the REAL probability versus possibility is quite simply:
Which is more likely? That the scum didn't influence the town at all, with the town having influenced the votes on town with all candidates as town...
...Or that the scum did influence the town, with the choices having at least some being pro-scum?
The latter is far more likely than the former. And my reads support that.

just feels tremendously fake to me, because objectively it just

is

unlikely, and I feel like mastina

has to

understand that?

It's not objectively unlikely. It is from a

statistical

viewpoint, a

theoretical

viewpoint, unlikely. The two should NOT be confused. Yes, by sheer raw statistical math, it is unlikely for three scum to be voted up. But

the game is not sheer raw statistical math

.
And the scum's wincon this game

actively incentivizes them avoiding the statistically likely outcome

. In this game, there's a 16:5 odds of town being elected King, and each position has a 15:5 odd of going to town.

Statistically speaking, that gives from a theory perspective a 16/21 odds of getting a town King, and a 15/20 odds of one town power role, and after that a 14/19 odds of a second town power role, and a 13/18 odds of a third town power role, and a 12/17 odds of a fourth town power role, and a 11/16 odds of a fifth town power role, and a 11/16 odds of a sixth town power role.

Put together, that's 81/111 chance: 73% chance of all town King+PRs. From a statistical viewpoint, just in theory, the town has a 73% chance of that many town. But the game isn't based on statistical theoretics. It's a core fundamental of the NRG to keep in mind the difference between raw theory and actual practice. (Miller to a Cop as the easiest go-to example of this.)

And by

actual practice

, scum by being their informed minority are

using their information to change the odds

. They are using their status of being the informed minority to shift the chances.

Scum don't want the statistically most likely outcome in theory to happen.

Ergo, playing

from actual practice

, in the reality of the game: Scum are going to try and look more town than normal, And to also prevent town from looking as town as they are.

Scum want to look more town, and to make town look less credible

. And by actual PRACTICE, the scum doing that isn't a possibility--it's a probability. Trying to argue that there isn't a difference between statistical theory, and pragmatic reality, is scummy as fuck and if GuiltyLion were actually town he would know about this divide.

Are you going to try and argue that the scum's only way of influencing the votes is with their own votes? 'Cause I don't fucking think I need to explain why that is fallacious as fuck.
Scum have more tools than just their vote to influence the game. Which MY argument accounts for.

Your posts are more than just votes. And don't fucking pretend that you having discredited town players has no influence on the vote--everyone thinks Andante is town, yet nobody is voting her outside of me pretty much.
And that is largely due to the narrative of "Andante is a wildcard". Which players are pushing that narrative? That's right! You are!

all these talented townies in Datisi, TSQ, LLD, Andres just twiddling their thumbs and getting hoodwinked by the masterful deception powers of Dann and GL as we ensure JunkoChan gets wagoned by a bunch of low volume and/or meme posters without even ever arguing for it?

Not by that wording, but basically?

Yes!

I believe that the town lacks cohesion. All of those players have individually given their suspicion on the likes of {GL, Dann, VP Baltar, Junko}.
Individually, pretty much none of them think all four of those names are town.
Individually, pretty much all of them think that grouping has a scum.

And there are many players who are underperforming this game in particular. Maybe the posting restriction is playing part, rl stuff can also play a part, personal struggles in getting this specific playerlist more locked down can also play a part, and overall game activity can play a part, with them wanting more players to be active so that they can get a better view of everyone.

As they are town, as they are an individual, the only way for them to get backing is to convince another individual whose alignment they do not know, to go along with them. Which they are usually pretty good at, but not flawlessly so.

The town have

argued

for different names to be elected.

But they don't have the same influence scum have.

you completely ignore the fact that town is also trying to influence the outcome, and they far outnumber the scum team. Like town has three times the voting power

This is again theoretically true by statistics but ignores the base fundamental powers of town versus scum.

Town players do not know which other players are town.
Scum players do.

Each town player is a bloc of one. One, and only one. Because the only player whose alignment they know is their own, they have incredibly limited scope in individual power. They need to convince the players whose alignment they don't even know, to follow them in voting on a player whose alignment they don't know, and who the people they're trying to convince don't know the alignment of, when those players also don't know the alignment of the person making the argument. That's FIVE levels of unknown.
The unknown of the player being voted for by the player campaigning.
The unknown of the alignment the player doing the campaigning has.
The unknown of the alignment of the player being asked to vote.
And the interaction between those three.

Meanwhile, scum know

exactly

what the alignment of every player in that equation is. And, additionally, instead of being a bloc of one, they are a bloc of five. They know precisely which players are making which campaigns for which alignments, and have five times the collective weight of any individual town player.

You're not so fucking stupid as to not know this, GL.

Arguing that the uninformed majority just by virtue of being the majority,
Has more influence inherently off of that numeric superiority,
Is fallacious as fuck because it discards the scum's advantage of being the

informed

.

Each individual town player is an individual;
Each individual scum player is

not an individual

.

If five scum were truly synchronized together, then they effectively have 5 * 4 = 20 voices. (That is, at the highest possible peak performance of sucm, where each scum member was actively contributing to each scum member to make all 5 be at top form and making the best possible posting, then each scum would be more than the sum of their parts and be boosted by their teammates. Obviously, in reality, this is lower, but at their highest theoretical value, that's what they get.)
Whereas town are 16 * 1.

The scum have a far, FAR greater ability to influence the game by leveraging their information to influence the viewpoints of other players, and networking their own posts in the scum PT to provide constant feedback to signal boost their strength.
Not all players are created equal--do you think a town-Not_Mafia provides the same value to town voices as a town-Ellibereth does? Obviously not.
That's obviously true about scum players as well, but scum players have something town players do not. A town-Not_Mafia will always be set in value. He cannot become stronger, because he is alone.
A scum player can become more, because they are

not alone

.

You are by arguing that town majority = scum have less influence than town.
When that's not reflective of reality--that's reflective of theoretical truth via raw statistics, but it is NOT reflective of reality when given the lens of scum's most basic power of information, paired with their oft-overlooked secondary power of

communication

.
There was a time when daytalk was considered so strong for a scum faction

it was valued as strongly as having an extra scum member

.
That three scum with daytalk was effectively four scum without daytalk. The ability for the

informed

to have open

communication

allows them to make a more collective push. They have a stronger collective power than any single town player to influence the game.

Because each town player is an individual, each town player lacks that collective strength. And because each scum player is part of a team, each scum player has the collective strength of that team to back them.

to me it feels obvious and indisputable.

Sure is, from a mathematical perspective reliant entirely on theory.

Sure isn't, based on actual practice accounting for the scum tools in the game versus the town's restrictions/limitations based on the weaknesses of the town that act as force dividers and the strengths of the scum that act as force multipliers.

(I don't remember my train of thought, I don't remember what exactly I wanted to quote from my iso and what my point precisely was, but the basic of it is that I AM arguing for probabilities.

Probabilities do not rely on sheer statistical math that is

disconnected from the practice of the game

--those are not probabilities. Those are just theories. Probability relies on

what is likely in a given situation

, something requiring to account for the human aspect. I don't remember my exact wording, my exact argument, where I was going with exactly because my internet failed, but I wasn't gonna let a half-finished post be discarded altogether.)