Shell Game (Day 4)

[Klick]

Yes

[Klick]

PookyTheMagicalBear
Oblivion
ActionDan
Firebagel

morph the cat (fferyllt & Cabd)
Firebringer
Brian Skies
Dunnstral
Gypyx
Spiffeh
marcistar
Hermit Crab (anonymous hydra)
Save The Dragons
Shello and Goodbye (Ydrasse & skitter30)
Sunflower (JupiterXV & fireisredsir)
SirCakez
Bingle
PenguinPower
Dannflor
Lukewarm
Cat Scratch Fever

[Klick]

VOTE: Lukewarm

[Klick]

PookyTheMagicalBear
Oblivion
ActionDan
Firebagel
Brian Skies
Spiffeh

morph the cat (fferyllt & Cabd)
Firebringer
Dunnstral
Gypyx
marcistar
Save The Dragons
Shello and Goodbye (Ydrasse & skitter30)
Sunflower (JupiterXV & fireisredsir)
SirCakez
Bingle
PenguinPower
Dannflor

Hermit Crab
Cat Scratch Fever
Lukewarm

[Klick]

Klick are you ignoring the neighborhood info and doing your own thing with your read lists?

Yes

My personal opinion aligns with ActionDan. I could entirely see Ceph informing us of a mysterious reason to suspect the hood when in reality it's 5 town. I don't think there'd be more than one scum.

[Klick]

Ydrasse is towny

[Klick]

i think actiondan's jump on marci is the type of jump on i see from scum pretty often when they think a townie has done something objectively scummy

wdym

I think Marci's posts surrounding the hood kind of look scummy at first glance but I think if you dig any deeper it's hard to really keep seeing that

I think scum, especially early on in the game, tend to stop at that first layer when searching for places to vote as long as that first layer looks indefensible. I think town are more likely to go a little deeper. this is regardless of whether ActionDan is familiar with Marcistar or not

I think this is sort of true for the CSF read too. The "permanent FOS" for the Miller claim is kind of devoid of actually trying critically think about the game and reads like slapping a label on a slot because they did something that seems objectively scummy

I find ActionDan is quite first-layer regardless of alignment

[Klick]

morph, do either of you have an opinion on Dannflor yet

[Klick]

morph, do either of you have an opinion on Dannflor yet

I may have missed it if you answered my question. I'm curious about the meaning of your tags in your reads list. what do strikethroughs and bolding denote?

I will answer
Could I ask what your best guess is first?

[Klick]

morph, do either of you have an opinion on Dannflor yet

I may have missed it if you answered my question. I'm curious about the meaning of your tags in your reads list. what do strikethroughs and bolding denote?

I will answer
Could I ask what your best guess is first?

Our best guess is that the strikethroughs mean you've found them town enough for now, and the bolds are your scumreads/concerns.

That's basically accurate

I find value in it being ambiguous. I like to experiment with different methods of expressing my thoughts on the game. I also enjoy extracting information out of how people engage with different levels of ambiguity vs straightforwardness. I often find that some people's assumptions about things like that are pretty closely attached to alignment.

I'll occasionally shift how willing I am to highlight someone in one direction or another just to try it out and see what will happen

[Klick]

Can you explain why Brian Skies is a strikethru?

Yes, but putting kids to bed first

[Klick]

I'm also laughing at the hood and neglecting this thread soz

[Klick]

YALL I FINALLY REALIZED WHAT MY HOODMATES WERE SAYING

THATS SO SLAY.

I think theres exactly 1 scum in my hood.

Cool so who is it? Name your guess.

GTH It's Sunflower

[Klick]

So we should be eliminating outside of that hood today, is what I'm hearing.

I'd rather kill the scum in our hood

[Klick]

Ideally I’d like more players to react to see who is and isn’t aware of what’s going on. This removes the opportunity.

Chuck Rab

On the contrary this has made at least morph incredibly obvious town

[Klick]

Bloop

[Klick]

it's slightly more complicated than what is the obvious assumption

VOTE: Sunflower

[Klick]

Klick, does 49 from Sunflower sway you one way or another?

I think it's pretty obviously softing our role

I also think all five of us have effectively softed the role, and the scum among us was almost certainly informed of what was up before we started

I think it's plausible from either alignment, possibly slightly more likely to come from scum who has more reason to put significant critical thought into how our role/neighbourhood works so early

[Klick]

i wanna explain things but some people don't like that for some reason zzzzzzzzz

I think I kinda want to hear from each of you five, your read list ONLY on the other four, in order.

Right now:

TOWN
STD
marcistar
ActionDan
Sunflower
SCUM

[Klick]

The huge pro to eliming in the hood is if the first hood elim is scum, then the dethy is a 4 player masonry.

This is what's on my mind, yes
I think we can potentially accurately sort a 1-in-5 with our available info

[Klick]

Hello

[Klick]

morph the cat
PookyTheMagicalBear
Spiffeh
marcistar
Hermit Crab
Oblivion
Save The Dragons
ActionDan
Firebagel
Brian Skies
Firebringer

Dunnstral
Gypyx
Shello and Goodbye (Ydrasse & skitter30)
SirCakez
Bingle
PenguinPower
Dannflor

Cat Scratch Fever
Lukewarm

Sunflower[

/b]

[Klick]

Cursed tags

[Klick]

I'm not compelled by arguments related to the Miller claim and I'm kind of ignoring it entirely. Millers can exist, and scum can claim them, and I'm not one to make an accurate assessment of that
But I think CSF is an easy read and I'm waiting for her to show that she's not scum

I'm just kind of not convinced at all by Luke's perspective so far

I believe STD's progression into realisation about the Dethy situation as coming from an uninformed perspective, and I think scum is more likely informed

Firebagel and Oblivion both seemed really obvious town at each other much earlier on

Spiffeh just seems towny to me. I haven't critically analysed my own thought process there, and doing so seems like busywork instead of legitimately helpful when no one is actually voicing a scumread on Spiffeh

Brian Skies' early thoughts seemed genuine to me. I'll go read them again just for you and see if I still think so

[Klick]

Sunflower scum cuz PoE Dethy

[Klick]

I've got townleans of various degrees on Firebagel, Pooky, Sunflower, Dunn, and Spiffeh.

I've got scumleans of various degrees on Shello, STD, Dan, and Morph.

Then we've also got confirmed scum Firepup.

I like Sunflower's entrance vote and early game banter. It feels natural to me.

I also liked the big post that you don't. I had some agreement with some of the reads.

But I can see why you have issue with it.

I thought these posts would be some pretty weird scum posts

Reading it now I'm less convinced. But I'm going to leave them crossed out just for fun

[Klick]

But I think CSF is an easy read and I'm waiting for her to show that she's not scum

I'm just kind of not convinced at all by Luke's perspective so far

This explanation is sort of a non-explanation, as well.

I am aware

[Klick]

Spiffeh just seems towny to me. I haven't critically analysed my own thought process there, and doing so seems like busywork instead of legitimately helpful when no one is actually voicing a scumread on Spiffeh

This is not true. I am scumreading Spiffeh. Morph is scumreading Spiffeh.

I could have sworn I saw something from morph indicating one of them thought Spiffeh-town
But I haven't been very closely following morph's posts since I decided they were town

[Klick]

Can you elaborate more on the Firebagel/Oblivion reads?

I thought Firebagel's write-off of Oblivion as town in 118 felt genuine
Overall my assessment of Firebagel is that she seems comfortable and wants to have fun and solve in a way that matches with a town perspective

[Klick]

VOTE: Klick

Why are you voting for me?

[Klick]

I do not buy your perspective. You are clearing some players too easily and not paying attention to others. I do not think you have believable scumreads, except for Sunflower

What makes you think that I have any scumreads aside from Sunflower?
Who do you think im clearing too easily?

[Klick]

What makes you think that I have any scumreads aside from Sunflower?

In post 371 you agree that strikethroughs are your townreads and bolded names are your scumreads/concerns.

You also clearly split up your list.

Additional context that readers might want to know:

I find value in it being ambiguous. I like to experiment with different methods of expressing my thoughts on the game. I also enjoy extracting information out of how people engage with different levels of ambiguity vs straightforwardness. I often find that some people's assumptions about things like that are pretty closely attached to alignment.

I'll occasionally shift how willing I am to highlight someone in one direction or another just to try it out and see what will happen

And it's that way in part to avoid people trying to get little gotchas by interpreting things however suits their agenda, instead of trying to understand.

[Klick]

klick has just felt kinda positional play in response to all of this and is just not approaching things in the way i tend to expect him to solve. i think he tends to feel really pretty measured and reasonable and confident in his ability to read people and here he feels put on the back foot and the reads don't feel like they're coming naturally

1. I am always positional
2. I am almost never confident

[Klick]

I'm concerned about Sunflower too. Would very much like to conclude at least one of Klick, Sunflower are town before much longer.

Hello, it's me

I don't understand the scumreads on me further than 'these are things that are surface-level scummy that I also do frequently as town, and people have to tie themselves to what they recognise regardless of context'

Sunflower is actually scum but posts in a less scumread-able way

[Klick]

also we didn't decide it's a dethy we were like "hey this is kinda like dethy". which. it isn't dethy. can we stop pretending it's dethy im so tired

I'm kind of confused. do you not think there's 1 scum in the hood anymore?

i didn't ever think it was a for sure thing. i said it was the most elegant. but i am not particularly willing to take it for granted that we can make assumptions here

What do you think Klick?

I think we are intended to assume the Dethy situation

...though literally right this second it has occurred to me that the 'Shell Game' could be quite literal within the context of the Dethy, and there is no shell

I don't think marci, ActionDan, or STD are scum

[Klick]

I don't know. You'd have to consider whether that's the direction Ceph would take things, and with the advertising of this game I wouldn't rule out 0 scum under the current parameters

I'm not in a particularly rationsl state of mind for that analysis

[Klick]

i think that town!klick is capable of finding scum!me. he did it very well recently

i think regardless of alignment he knows that he doesn't have reason to think im scum here

the difference is that i think if he's town he would also know that if we're both town there's a decent chance we can find each other. the fact that he doesn't have reason to think im scum would make him doubt. im on the other side here, not fully confident that klick is scum, and that makes me question AD and marci

the way that his reads on AD and marci progressed from hesitancy/uncertainty to full-on confidence isn't supported and just isn't really believable to me coming from town!klick

this is what i mean by calling the play positional. i think that those reads became solidified out of necessity and not out of justified reason. and i don't think that's how town!klick plays

The thing I find most concerning about you personally is that your descriptions of my play don't match up with how I think of my own play at all.

Like the thing just now about going from hesitancy/uncertainty to full-on confidence on marci and STD (not ActionDan, I don’t think that matches my progression there?). I... do stuff like that all the time? When I have a reason to think someone is town, I tend towards hard-committal. I think that's one of my defining traits as a player.

My concern is that you're taking uncharitable interpretations of my actions, because pushing me early and getting me out of the way is exactly how I think scum!you would want to approach this situation.

But I am having doubts about you currently, mostly stemming from thinking 0-scum is kind of plausible

[Klick]

Isn't it like a trope amongst Shell Games to take the shell away

[Klick]

So you’re telling us that the mod created 5 players neighborhood with all town with some sort of role with questionable sanity, declared that if the mafia still exists in the neighborhood at a predetermined point mafia will get an advantage, and expect town to not believe it and move on? Especially after throwing in the urgency of time?

Naw

-Herr Mitt

No, I don't expect Ceph expects us to move on from it

The question is whether Ceph would make this game explicitly to punish the dirty setup speccers

[Klick]

I'm going to refresh tonight. I had a really stressful time last night and this morning, and some of that was due to this game, but most of that was external and me projecting that into this.

I'm finding the push on myself overwhelming. I don't particularly like or enjoy playing to expectation. I also dislike the infrequent-but-significant wagon that grows on me early D1 simply for playing the way I play amongst certain groups of players.

If you have a question that you like, really really care about getting answered, ping me and I'll give it some attention before I refresh. But what I'd like to do tonight after the kids are asleep is go through and get a clearer perspective on the game.

I think I'm quite happy with the actual reads I've developed so far, but I'm going to make an effort to be more transparent as to the reasoning behind most of my reads. Some might change with reflection. My concern is that a number of people are going to poke and prod and otherwise invalidate my attempts at showing my work, not due to its actual content or potential accuracy, but simply due to disagreements in process. I'm not interested in getting into lengthy debates about the accuracy of my opinions or process, unless the goal is genuinely to come to a shared understanding on someone's alignment.


With that out of the way, see you all in like 3ish hours maybe

[Klick]

I do have a question for you. You were told that there were 4 sanities of cop that exist in this game, or something similar, correct? And yet there are 5 players claiming cop inventor in your neighborhood. How do you then believe that there could be 0 mafia in your neighborhood?

I think it's most likely that even if there is Mafia, they have the Inventor role
Otherwise we could just out them by... seeing who doesn't successfully send an Invention to their target

There are four sanities, but five Inventors
This is most likely true regardless of alignments

[Klick]

I'm going to refresh tonight. I had a really stressful time last night and this morning, and some of that was due to this game, but most of that was external and me projecting that into this.

I'm finding the push on myself overwhelming. I don't particularly like or enjoy playing to expectation. I also dislike the infrequent-but-significant wagon that grows on me early D1 simply for playing the way I play amongst certain groups of players.

If you have a question that you like, really really care about getting answered, ping me and I'll give it some attention before I refresh. But what I'd like to do tonight after the kids are asleep is go through and get a clearer perspective on the game.

I think I'm quite happy with the actual reads I've developed so far, but I'm going to make an effort to be more transparent as to the reasoning behind most of my reads. Some might change with reflection. My concern is that a number of people are going to poke and prod and otherwise invalidate my attempts at showing my work, not due to its actual content or potential accuracy, but simply due to disagreements in process. I'm not interested in getting into lengthy debates about the accuracy of my opinions or process, unless the goal is genuinely to come to a shared understanding on someone's alignment.


With that out of the way, see you all in like 3ish hours maybe

Can you go into how your reads of Cat Scratch Fever, Hermit Crab, and Lukewarm formed?

How they formed? I can try
I feel like I've already sufficiently done this for CSF. CSF was a person of interest because I didn't feel like she came very close to clearing the level of towniness that she usually has as town. I've kinda liked some of her recent posts I think. But CSF has a pretty clear range

Hermit Crab seemed a bit high potential for scum but then started engaging with the main events and became obvtown

I remain unconvinced that Lukewarm is doing anything aside from posturing

[Klick]

I sat down and fell asleep in 5 minutes. I needed it

Tonight, then

[Klick]

Sad spiral dampening an otherwise very frustrating week.

I am here and ready as I'll ever be to catch up right now. I've got hours. Can't promise I will have my focus on this for all of them, but I'll at least get somewhere.

[Klick]

I've done quite a bit of reading, I'm trying not to post snippets because if I do I will make at least two pages of posts in a row

But I just wanted to say that I've ISO'd CSF and she is a lot more obvtown than I remember, even earlier on

[Klick]

my only superpower in mafia si being able to somewhat reliably identify if people are town while other people think they are not town. this does not mean i stop their eliminations

This is hilariously relatable

[Klick]

Hood tracker :

Hood 1
Marci / klick / sunflower / actiondan / save the dragon

this hood gets info if there are no scums in it by a certain point in time

I don't know why Gypyx is being voted in Current Time

But this misunderstanding just looks like a straight-up townslip to me?

[Klick]

I tried showing my work in the moment as I was noticing things and got absolutely bored out of my mind. I am happy to try to describe how I came about reading people the way I read them to the best of my ability, but the only way I'm getting to a place where I viably care about this game and have something worthwhile to say about it is if I value obtaining a more solid overall perspective for now. I know this kind of runs counter to what I said before, but I just want to have fun in a Mafia game lmao.

---

I think my old reads were hot garbage so far. I think particularly my Pooky and morph townreads were quite lazy and I don't immediately see them on a second read-through. This is where I'm at from quite early on

TOWN

Cat Scratch Fever
Hermit Crab

PROBABLY TOWN

Dannflor
Oblivion
Firebagel
Shello and Goodbye

LEANING TOWN

ActionDan
marcistar
Gypyx
Lukewarm

LEFT

PookyTheMagicalBear
morph the cat
Firebringer
Brian Skies
Dunnstral
Spiffeh
Save The Dragons
Sunflower
SirCakez
Bingle
PenguinPower