Shell Game (Day 8)

[Dunnstral]

So morph got a report on Shello as evil? Do we know if there can be a role like Enchanter in the game that makes goods appear as evil?

On this site it would be called lawyer but it is a very rare role to see. Usually you would not ever think about this role being in the game, really.

In this specific game... it could exist; just because the cop sanities from your hood already bring an expectation of this kind of chaos, and this further messes with it.

For morph in particular it is likely that they are not a cop but a different investigative which can get guilties on mafia but can also be tripped up by power roles that town can have as well; it this case a lawyer-type role is pretty much never in effect and instead each role has it's own way of producing false results

For instance a gunsmith gets results on mafia, but also on cops (guns in flavor), vigilante's (which shello is claiming), but not mafia doctors

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: experience

RN I think this is the most likely evil in our group based on chat

Can you share with the rest of us what you are seeing

[Dunnstral]

So clarification. Yesterday we delayed voting in the dethy and I believe the reasoning was so we would have more information to work with today. And today we are not using any of that information.

[Dunnstral]

Also someone sent us fruit last night.

Also someone sent us fruit last night.

You arent the only one who got

VLA until Monday

I was given fruit during the night, but ceph told me I was not allowed to eat it, smh

im confused how did 3 of us get fruit then?

Good question!

[Dunnstral]

MOVING FORWARD. If you get a fruit, shush.

you keep saying its a thief game, is that why you want us to shush?

Yes. And even if it's not, we don't need to know who is receiving fruits anymore

[Dunnstral]

I asked because you literally didn't explain what you meant at first. Now that you did I see you are still wrong but at least I understand why you are saying that stuff. I don't know what to tell you except I asked to make sure we did not kill someone who is good for a bad reason

and then blame someone else who is also good.

I thought you were scumreading us?

That post was pure gimmick with very little real thought behind it

I had you as suspect but the entire hood seemingly being against you made me cautious and I felt like probing your thoughts today to get a better feel for you. Right now I rate you as not a concern though I've not read most of your messages. I thought the way you handled the neighborhood Day 1 was startlingly bad process and my instinct was Klick vs Sunflower was TvT and scum were looking to take advantage of it. However, given the speculation the scum in the inventor neighborhood might be a traitor, I'm not even sure this is telling given that scum would likely have uninformed reads on the group.

shame my cover got blown because I was going to pretend to not know what hydras were and freak out about two people playing on the same account being legal.

FWIW - jupiter had messages in the neighborhood about being behind on the main thread and finding it annoying to keep up with. I have no idea what this means for their alignment. My instinct still was that fire really believed what they were coming after Klick with but I'll hear Spiffeh out on whatever his case is.

So what made you suspect Morph in the first place?

[Dunnstral]

Nevermind that. Reading the post explains the post.

[Dunnstral]

I tune signatures out

[Dunnstral]

wolfbae you thought I was the scum in the hood overnight but you also didn't know who the last person in here was? Is that correct?

Also why

[Dunnstral]

Super secret alt who’s the scum in my hood and why

Who's in your hood again? You/Bingle/Cakeboi/Fire/Dunn/X?

spiffeh

Oh, right. I mean, Spiffeh absolutely bodied Brian Day 1 so I wouldn't re-evaluate that read for a very long time, he presumably dies well before you need to consider if he hard bussed. I had Hermit and Bingle as town overnight before the claim (other inventors can verify).

As of last night I was most suspicious of Dunn, although there were points against both Cakez and Fire and I'd only loosely skimmed. I probably need to re-evaluate given recent data. If you held a gun to my head and forced me to give an answer I'd say Dunn still but only because the way Cakez reacted to me gives me little gut feelies of him being town. FB is, well, I mostly liked him biting back at Shello with the wagon on him.

I honestly do really want to know the alignment of Cakez, though, honestly, because I think being sure of that means we have useful data on the wagons Day 1. If it was scum/scum then this is probably an easy game and the scum are relatively low influence. If Cakez is town you can look at who was trying to drive a kill on him while ignoring or minimizing Brian.

You are suspicious of me why?

[Dunnstral]

I think his play is aimed at not makig waves but doesn't truly show scumhunting intent.

This is super vague and untrue.

The vote on Brian was quite weak and can easily be a bus (statistically in large games scum bus far more often than not on Day 1 scum elims).

Can you explain how my vote is different from Spiffeh, morph, or marci's vote?

I voted for Brian because their vote on SirCakez was super lazy and didn't really make sense from town, plus they were a nonentity in discussions but still present. How is that weak?

[Dunnstral]

Why are you willing to vote outside of the hood when we are on a time limit?

[Dunnstral]

I think it would be Firebringer or Sircakez. Though for SirCakez he was being pushed by Brian yesterday which is the reason Brian got voted.

You are absolutely wrong about everyone dying in that hood being ok. Also I think that is really unlikely

[Dunnstral]

I like 4107 though you do have a thought process here. You were being super vague so it looked like you didn't know.

[Dunnstral]

I don't know how you are looking at my posts and thinking I am avoiding making waves though. I am giving all my opinions.

[Dunnstral]

Have I been wrong though? I don't recall

[Dunnstral]

When I see you put in a lot of effort in a post and theory craft it makes me t hink you are town

[Dunnstral]

Looks like Lukewarm is capable of wall posting as mafia

[Dunnstral]

Yeah i think we should absolutely keep scrutiny on cakez, or maybe Bingle? my ego tells me bingle was somewhat threatened

will wait before voting to let everyone pop in

Can you go into more detail on why you think this

there was a lot of people asking for a bingle case and all, if Brian wasn't so obvious scum and other options could've been brought to consideration, i fully belive bingle could've been a wagon

I want to know why you think we should be pressuring Sircakez and Bingle, I meant.

Also the asking for a Bingle case was more directed at Firebringer.

[Dunnstral]

What do you mean by reminded him of his read?

[Dunnstral]

What part of the claim do you folks find towny from Firebringer?

[Dunnstral]

It's a little annoying that people are using what's happening in the hood to townread him and then not really explain, but talking abt it like it's common knowledge here

Who is doing this?

[Dunnstral]

Weren't you and wolfbae talking about it?

[Dunnstral]

Wolfbae said he thought the claim was townie, i'm saying i'm not in the hood and can't use that

May have skimmed your post and shouldn't be annoyed at it

Right. Well, funny story...

[Dunnstral]

Wolfbae is not in our hood

[Dunnstral]

And Firebringer didn't claim anything out here.

So this part of their post:

Well, if one of your scumreads is firebringer, you're dead wrong given how blatantly he was towntelling last night - think the string of posts + the claim is just, like, always town here.

Is really interesting to me

[Dunnstral]

I wouldn't personally refer to that post where Firebringer says they didn't send in a night action as "the claim"

[Dunnstral]

Yeah

[Dunnstral]

Yeah but I wasn't asking about the string of posts.

To me it looks like you were referring to Firebringer's claim in our hood was towny when that is knowledge you should not be privy to.

And quoting 3747 is just barely passable but I wouldn't call that "the claim".

My thought is that you mixed up what parts are public knowledge, but all Firebringer said was that they wouldn't discuss their claim.

Also this is super nitpicky, but:

Spoiler: you've been warned

If the claim happened first, and the strong of posts happened second, I would refer to it as "the claim + the string of posts", not "the string of posts + the claim"

[Dunnstral]

you’re hiding your abilities to correctly read the game… curious.

- ydra

What does this mean?

[Dunnstral]

town

spiffeh
marci/luke/std
dann
sunflower
wolfbae
shello
firebringer
[rest of playerlist]
cakez
morph
gypyx

nullscum

What do you think about your dethy hood?

[Dunnstral]

Lukewarm I am not confident that they slipped anymore fwiw

[Dunnstral]

town

spiffeh

marci

/luke/

std

dann

sunflower

wolfbae

shello
firebringer
[rest of playerlist]
cakez
morph
gypyx

nullscum

i'm definitely reading somebody in our hood then.
(probably one of sunflower/wolfbae/marci)

You've got marci and save the dragons on the same 'tier' in strength of reads.

When faced with one of your hoodmates being mafia, you decided marci was a contender but save the dragons was not.

Why?

[Dunnstral]

Lukewarm I am not confident that they slipped anymore fwiw

What do you mean slipped?

What I was talking about with Firebringer's claim

[Dunnstral]

Why are they on the same level as marci in your reads, then?

And why does that make Save the Dragons town?

[Dunnstral]

Can I get a response to 4427 experience. I am trying to understand your thought process.

[Dunnstral]

They are not repeating, actually. I think they are talking about two different posts

[Dunnstral]

Wait, no. They are talking about the same post.

I undnerstood it as talking about a post in the hood and the post in this thread.

[Dunnstral]

That's fair but like can you justify it with the note from the mod in the hood or the way we seem to be inspired by dethy?

This is the post experience is talking about.

Speaking of, why does this make Save The Dragons town? At this point the dethy is common knowledge so pointing that out does not seem towny to me.

[Dunnstral]

If anything it's the opposite. Why would you want to warn a player about that? I would want to get all the extra data out of it that I possibly could before they realized themselves because that timing is also alignment indicative.

R u 4 real

I dunno how I'm supposed to have a conversation about the gamestat3 if I'm waiting for experience to never read a post

This is not meant as shade on you, just trying to understand how experience is forming a read on you from small snippets of posting. For me at least.

[Dunnstral]

on the other hand, i feel slightly better about you (given i've seen you do something similar as town) that maybe you can go in my nulltown pile.

What was your read on Lukewarm before?

[Dunnstral]

I hate mixing secret alts and meta

[Dunnstral]

Insomnia. Keep up with the lore, it was revealed on page number one hundred sixty six.

viewtopic.php?p=14178035#p14178035

[Dunnstral]

this does not read like enthusiatic town happy that they've caught a scum, this is just someone who's out for blood

What's the difference?

[Dunnstral]

Isn't that everyones role in the dethy

i have no clue.

aintnoway that's a real thought experience is having

Actually...

Didn't experience acknowledge a list of where each inventor should be targeting in the hood? How can they think their role is unrevealed still?

[Dunnstral]

So mechanically, should they be giving out more inventions or using the cop shots?

[Dunnstral]

Also relevant oblivion town meta!

Also there's a 5 person hood with 2 town who knows each others alignment and 1 mafia

[Dunnstral]

this does not read like enthusiatic town happy that they've caught a scum, this is just someone who's out for blood

What's the difference?

difference lies in how hard the push happens? Like, you do not just put that and mic drop? especially when the thread starts talking about other things, wolfbae is using very strong words about me while have a pretty weak push in effect

also

VOTE: gypyx

come out and play

Do you really ask this to someone who you belive is about to get confirmed scum soon?

Why wouldn't wolfbae lead the push with that?

[Dunnstral]

If we’re assuming groupscum then yeah.

I might reconsider if people like gypyx start flipping scum though.

-HM

Methinks this leans town on hermit, but it also comes from a place of knowing my own alignement

How is it towny to set up for a push on you?

[Dunnstral]

How is that different from what wolfbae is doing?

[Dunnstral]

What guilt is being deflected?

contrary to saying something like "I think Gypyx is scum who's avoiding playing the game" much more different look

I think they basically said that but worded differently

[Dunnstral]

ok lol maybe dunn is a wolfbae partner lol

just look at how differently he's treating my wolfbae read vs my hermit crab read

What do you mean by this?

[Dunnstral]

I'm not asking you to scumread HC. I want to know why you are coming to the conclusions you are coming to, to see if they are real thoughts. I am wondering how you are townreading that HC post.

[Dunnstral]

To the people in the dethy hood, what was experience' reaction towards the list telling them where they should target?

[Dunnstral]

Uhhh is it weird I think this is town

Not really.

I am more suspicious of experience now as I find it unlikely they navigated through being directed where to use their role without knowing what was happening

[Dunnstral]

this game just ended an hour ago, I think gypyx is kind of just outed mafia

100% agree and the reason why I’ve thought so for awhile.

Based off of this post?

[Dunnstral]

Isn't that everyones role in the dethy

i have no clue.

[Dunnstral]

How can they not know that you all have that role when they participated in planning who targets where?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: experience

[Dunnstral]

I'm inclined to believe the townslip is real, Dunn.

You mean experience or other one?

[Dunnstral]

The other one. I think it'd be a little on the nose to post "wow that looks like a fake townslip" and then immediately attempt to fake a townslip.

I believe that it is something that can be missed if you're not reading everything, too

[Dunnstral]

You provided a list of names for who in the neighborhood should target which player, correct? How did you decide where the inventors whose role you didn't know would go?

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Sunflower

:')

[Dunnstral]

I can totally believe he could have not realized that everyone had the exact same role despite participating in making lists about distributing inventions, if that wasn't specifically mentioned at the same time.

I also find it pretty sus how a

certain someone

is claiming to be massively confused now just

after

experience clarified. Because that was totally a helpful clarification, even I was staring at this claim going "..... ". And I can't even see the hood.

What do you think of Bingle's reaction to this?

[Dunnstral]

Never bet on Lukewarm on poker night

[Dunnstral]

Why is he almost certainly not scum? Is this something you've explained?

[Dunnstral]

Post 4637 is the town slip. Gypyx doesn't know that Hermit has claimed a role that makes them confirmed town*.

My 4751 above is trying to figure out if you had seen the claim or not by asking for your opinion on Bingle. It was in response to the post above it but I quoted your previous post so as to not tip you off that it was related to Gypyx.

So yeah I am trying to figure out how much you know.

[Dunnstral]

Why would you claim that?

[Dunnstral]

Why would you claim that you're totally not acting with your bookie preventing role, I mean.

[Dunnstral]

By the way I think generally the oddskeeper is a better use of the role than the vigilante if you had to pick one to use, even though the vigilante would feel more impactful

[Dunnstral]

Me neither. I'm voting Sunflower because I think everyone else in that group is more likely to be town.

[Dunnstral]

People are saying the Gypyx thing is not a town slip but it does make them more likely to be town, right? Mafia would be talking about the Best Friend Neighbors (the actual role name) in their pt.

[Dunnstral]

Lukewarm stop sliding me down.

[Dunnstral]

I don't feel like that is a fair assessment. I've pushed what I thought were 2 different slips. And tried to figure out several players who didn't realize Hermit Crab was a claimed role without making it too obvious that that was what was happening.

[Dunnstral]

SirCakez should not be on the list.

[Dunnstral]

Out of curiosity, was the masons thing known in your hood last night?

No

[Dunnstral]

Sunflower who do you even think is scum??

[Firebringer, Firebagel, Lukewarm]
[experience, morph the cat, Dunnstral, Gypyx, SirCakez, PenguinPower, Cat Scratch Fever]

here's a lazy poe

Didn't you townread me?

[Dunnstral]

Also morph the cat is at the bottom with their claim?

[Dunnstral]

Gypyx, please don't ignore me!

When did you realize we were masons?

When you told me you were masons lol

Who is "you"? Are you referring to Crab's post claiming to be confirmed town? If so what made you think that was on the level rather than a joke?

oh right um sorry

well, it was way before that, i've seen the whole discussion around me not knowing that potentially being a townslip

So you're saying you saw HC's claim, then forgot about it when you posted about them leaning town? Then have been seeing people call that a potential townslip and not said anything, continuing to let people think you never saw it in the first place with posts implying that such as 4993 and 4996?

VOTE: Gypyx

Yeah um, sure you've caught me whatever

i didn't see HC's claim when i said i was leaning town on them, that much should be obvious

Uh huh, then might I inquire what prompted this post? Because posting in Mafia Discussion bringing up the best friend role sure suggests it was on your mind. Then showing up in game three hours later posting like you don't know HC claimed that role is pretty wtf.

This is a really dumb reach by the way

[Dunnstral]

For the record, our role was explicitly called masons and not best friends or whatever.

Bingle has been calling it best friends:

And... Notty to yell at me for outing the best friends portion of our role:

Yes, Ydra skitter claim as town would satisfy the type of guilty we have. I'm still processing how I feel about the data that hit the thread as to if I believe them.

I think they're town, but wouldn't oppose the lim if it came down to it.

My reads this game have been pretty tenuous tbh, and I've had like 0 sync with my best friend.

I do think FB is probably scum.

[Dunnstral]

csf, while i haven't realized it yet, claimed miller,

Wasn't this something that happened on the first few pages of the game

[Dunnstral]

Help how do i open a jar

Put gloves on. It helps, trust

[Dunnstral]

Skitter, I recently saw scum-RH9 massively fuck up on a day one, up close and personal, and I led the D1 elim. That's where this comes from.

It was in ffery's theme. I played as "Lady Terminally Offline":

viewtopic.php?t=92207

If you strip out TL from that hydra's iso, do you think that rh's posts resemble rh's posts here?

What's the point of homework if I give out the answers before the due date?

I did the homework, but I have questions. I read it, and I actually feel like RH looked ~okay~ there, and that it was actually TL that did all the stumbling. So I am curious what you see that made you decide to share it

I had non-activity reasons to scumread the hydra in that game and kept pushing even when their activity dipped in the middle. In this game they were inactive for a long time and then had some weirdness around their claim.

I'm not sure about hydra heads or who exactly was making what post

[Dunnstral]

So as someone in that game they looked worse there. I pointed out why exactly in my iso in that game

[Dunnstral]

Most of us (me, hermit, and fireisredsir) just said that it made you more likely to be town.

But I think that Dunn

might have called it dumb

5311 and 5358 are totally smears, just 'cause there's a townread in there doesn't also make it a smear to go "wow that's so dumb it might be towny"

I didn't say it was scummy. I think the argument is bad but it's the kind of thing I would have pointed out a few years ago, probably.

[Dunnstral]

Firebagel, I don't know that it helps you sort me or me sort you to have a back and forth on what I think you misunderstood in that post, especially because you have already dropped the line of questioning on your own.

I was just trying to make it clear that I was not calling you dumb.

Yes I was talking about the argument.

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral personally if you had a 1x cop shot of unknown sanity, who would you aim it at?

It depends on what we are trying to do with it.

If we're trying to solve the sanities: Target CSF, Bingle, or Hermit Crab

If we're trying to determine somebody else's alignment: I would be looking at PenguinPower, Oblivion, Dannflor, SirCakez, FireBagel, or Firebringer

[Dunnstral]

Maybe not Oblivion.

[Dunnstral]

It's more a hedge than anything, Peta. Take it as your paranoia badge of honor.

I think in 99.99% of worlds it's one of the two.

I am in "will buy a drink when visits" level of sure on Marcitown. (Editor's note: This is not an actual deal or promise Mr. Mod)

And I'm taking the word for it mostly on STD.

That leaves you to figure it out if we hit wrong twice, and course-correct onto either my tiki bar wallet loss, or my smug dead thread told you so to ffery from page ten or so instead of you.

yeah fair enough

I would also be blown away if marci is scum but then be mad at myself for not catching it anyway. I just have a dislike of scenarios where I get slotted as POE in an order people are expectd to sleepwalk through. Been down that path a few too many times.

By the way as a reminder mafia have a bookie so saying let's eliminate these 3 players in this order might backfire on us

[Dunnstral]

is that your personal opinion or what you thinks best for the rest of the town?

...both?

Really though it's just my personal opinion.

[Dunnstral]

Maybe not Oblivion.

Whyd you say oblivion then remove them? do you have a tr there?

i'm slightly conflicted on oblivion rn.

I had a TR but they have fallen off with activity. But upon review maybe I shouldn't base it off of that. And they seemed pretty readable when they were here.

[Dunnstral]

Sorry, It

[Dunnstral]

dunn do you think luke is town?

Yeah I do

[Dunnstral]

I don't think Lukewarm points out that I have historically read them wrong if I am currently reading them wrong. It is something to keep in mind for the future for sure though.

And yes I think Morph is town (pre-claim and post-claim)

[Dunnstral]

I don't think Lukewarm points out that I have historically read them wrong if I am currently reading them wrong. It is something to keep in mind for the future for sure though.

And yes I think Morph is town (pre-claim and post-claim)

i was gonna say that this gives me the ick but looking at the playerlist im no longer sure :/

???

[Dunnstral]

I am eagerly refreshing for this reads list

[Dunnstral]

In that case no pressure, I will go do something else and come back later

[Dunnstral]

I'm going to say I do prefer to eliminate Sunflower over experience. I feel that we talked about ways where their play is either nai or possible disconnected town, but we don't really have a reason to scumread them beyond inactivity and thinking other players are townier. But for me Sunflower doesn't clear that bar of players who are townier, and their posting recently has felt stilted too. (I do believe they had Nai reasons for not posting the past ~2 days)

[Dunnstral]

Who did Experience claim to target with their cop shot? Marci?

[Dunnstral]

If they are mafia you should invent instead of using their cop shot

[Dunnstral]

I had no idea what he meant but we are explicitly listed as masons

The role PM says masons, but the actual role is best friend neighbors.

Best friend is a role where the two players don't share a PT but are informed of each other's alignment. It's obscure, but it is the role we actually have.

Well, you do share a pt

[Dunnstral]

i spent like 100 posts scumcasing morph in the neighborhood last night

After they claimed an investigative role that found a vigilante?

[Dunnstral]

honestly don't get why scum would bother blocking me.

Pet theory that scum's cop inventor doesn't have a sanity and instead always returns no result

why are you choosing to disbelive the masons now?

How did you know that Firebringer received a cop?

[Dunnstral]

What were the dethy hood reactions to the experience flip?

[Dunnstral]

Do we?

[Dunnstral]

We got fruit last night

You are not supposed to claim this

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: Sunflower

[Dunnstral]

I don't understand the marci fruit stealing thing. How does her fruit getting stolen also tell her that invention stuff was stolen? And it wasn't clear whether that was the invention she received or the one she was trying to give out?

I have no intention of voting Sunflower and the amount of people expressing similar opinions now, when morph is gone, bothers me. Y'all are more talkative than me, where was your disagreement yesterday? Same for the newfound willingness to suspect Dragons. Gypyx/Dragons especially, feels really theatery.

Anything else of interest to talk about?

[Dunnstral]

Firebringer did claim in our hood last day phase. They also claimed to receive the cop shot in our hood and I don't think they did so in the main thread. Gypyx' explanation made sense though, they could have assumed no result = cop. Firebringer was actually indicating they'd be using a different ability than the cop (despite my arguing otherwise) but it seems they did try to use the cop (and are claiming roleblocked)

[Dunnstral]

I really thought it could be morph and I didn't have a lot of time to read the scumcase from wolfbae so my thoughts were independent of that

The people who killed morph were people who were obsessed with their towniness and couldn't see what I saw

I think that points towards people like dunn being scum

Really you have no idea why mafia would kill the investigative role? And it's me specifically why?

[Dunnstral]

I don't understand the marci fruit stealing thing. How does her fruit getting stolen also tell her that invention stuff was stolen? And it wasn't clear whether that was the invention she received or the one she was trying to give out?

I have no intention of voting Sunflower and the amount of people expressing similar opinions now, when morph is gone, bothers me. Y'all are more talkative than me, where was your disagreement yesterday? Same for the newfound willingness to suspect Dragons. Gypyx/Dragons especially, feels really theatery.

Anything else of interest to talk about?

What's with all the Spiffeh townreads anyway? I haven't gone back to read all that d1 stuff but it seems like people don't think it's possible for him to have bussed Brian and that seems dangerous to me. Scum can absolutely win games despite losing a member d1 through strong wagon positioning, and this feels very much like a scenario where that could've happened.

Did you receive a cop shot on night 1? If so, who did you target and what was the result?

[Dunnstral]

Well - I chose incorrectly. Sorry morph.

I assumed crab was going to be shot last night instead. I was debating between the two.

You may have been successful in stopping a kill. Remember that the mafia have a bookie in play; they could have been killing both Morph and Hermit Crab last night

[Dunnstral]

Morph was a claimed investigative role, which is likely a large part of why they were killed.

[Dunnstral]

Firebagel what is the benefit to withholding info?

[Dunnstral]

I’ve been incredibly low wim this game and haven’t been able to shift that. Is anyone willing to give me a full mech breakdown behind a spoiler for free town points?

Lukes actually already done so in this post!

How am I still falling for this

[Dunnstral]

why not just deadsheep morph?

Didn't they say you were mafia?

[Dunnstral]

I’ve been incredibly low wim this game and haven’t been able to shift that. Is anyone willing to give me a full mech breakdown behind a spoiler for free town points?

Spoiler:

Dethy

MAKING CALIBRATION PROGRESS

Marci's first shot went to sunflower, was used on CSF. Inno result. Naive or inverse.

Wolfbae's first shot went to firebagel. Results unclaimed

NOT MAKING CALIBRATION PROGRESS

sunflower's first shot went to shello. Unused. Also did not give a second one.

STD's first shot went to firebringer. Claiming it failed to work

Experience's first shot went to Marci. Stolen.

Cat Scratch Fever

- Miller

Notty/Bingle

- mason fruit vendors.

Shello

- Oddskeeper (Tries to out guess the bookie) turned off vig.

Firebringer

- fortune teller.

• past - tracker a past night
  
• present - snarglefargle (??)
  
• future - set up a future redirect

Apparently claimed something in their hood, but I don't know what

:

Dunnstral
PenguinPower
Cakez (maybe another fruit vendor based off something hermit said, but unclear)

Unclaimed:

Gypyx
Spiffeh
Oblivion
Lukewarm
Firebagel
Dannflor

It would be concerning if PenguinPower claimed something in their hood

[Dunnstral]

why not just deadsheep morph?

Didn't they say you were mafia?

can you explain what is going on in your brain that makes you think this is a useful question to ask

Going 'why not sheep Morph' when from your pov they should have been wrong on experience and wrong on you seems strange

I do not see why you are saying Morph should be sheeped over Hermit Crab, or rather what the difference really is at this point anyway

[Dunnstral]

marci scum probably means im wrong on the masons

I think there is no correlation at all between these two things

[Dunnstral]

but if there's not a major difference between their reads and luke already said he trusts morph most then i was interested why he chose to say notty instead because i didn't see why he would do that

What do you think of Lukewarm's response?

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler: Updated claims

Dethy

MAKING CALIBRATION PROGRESS

Marci's first shot went to sunflower, was used on CSF. Inno result. Naive or inverse.

Wolfbae's first shot went to firebagel. Results unclaimed

NOT MAKING CALIBRATION PROGRESS

sunflower's first shot went to shello. Unused. Also did not give a second one.

STD's first shot went to firebringer. Claiming it failed to work

Experience's first shot went to Marci. Stolen.

Cat Scratch Fever

- Miller

Notty/Bingle

- mason fruit vendors.

Shello

- Oddskeeper (Tries to out guess the bookie) turned off vig.

Firebringer

- fortune teller. Failed to fire night 1 and 2. Night 1 he forgot to submit an action. Night 2, he chose to use a cop-vention.

• past - tracker a past night
  
• present - snarglefargle (??)
  
• future - set up a future redirect

PenguinPower

- Claimed some kind of role that would want to guess the night kill, but not the specific one. Claimed to target Hermit night 2.

Apparently claimed something in their hood, but I don't know what

:

Dunnstral
Cakez (maybe another fruit vendor based off something hermit said, but unclear)

Unclaimed:

Gypyx
Spiffeh
Oblivion
Lukewarm
Firebagel
Dannflor

Mech wise:

Bingle
HC

CSF
Shello

To varying degrees, I'm taking the four of these as a given that they're town. CSF being miller makes sense in a dethy setup. A dedicated doc to the second scumkill fits well with an ascetic real doc mechwise, and the novelty of oddskeeper with a known backup bookie rings true. If the primary bookie was town they would have claimed by now, because we absolutely could have triggered that ability given a reason to do so. Pengy and Shello are not S/S but I kinda think Pengy is scum from a little bit of awkward feels around the early townread of me. It just seemed weird that he specifically would have that read that early. I think marci being stolen from is significantly scum indicative, actually. Especially in the case that Cakez is scum. Experience was already dead. If scum really wanted to mess with town calibrating cops, they would have been better served stealing a different copshot. I think this is a case where the thief was used to go "Oh, look, I was targeted by scum, I can't be scum myself" instead of an actual attempt to prevent the cops from doing something long term. I actually think Fire's claim is maybe town? Like, I don't know why he doesn't use the future redirect N1 as scum, and that looks like a true claim. I don't think it's impossible for scum to have multiple redirection roles in a 'Shell Game' game, but this is maybe town indicative of FB. I'm straight up not worried about the thief Notty's worried about, so limming outside of copventors doesn't seem interesting to me.

Do you think of the oddskeeper as filling the same niche as a doc?

[Dunnstral]

So mafia have a Bookie, a thief, and a roleblocker. And 1 mafia in the dethy, possibly a traitor but potentially one of the power roles (or their invention doesn't work instead o the roleblocker). Assuming everybody is being truthful with claims

[Dunnstral]

Isn't that already one over what we expected in a game where multitasking is not a thing?

No it just barely fits. Also the inventor shot could feasibly be multitasked with another role IMO

[Dunnstral]

Someone's playing a very convincing scum game

You would totally say this if you were the mafia, right?

[Dunnstral]

How does hiding the result help town?

[Dunnstral]

@STD- Why Bingle? You have him in lean scum in 3478, what changed? Especially when you still had multiple of your lean towns available.

@marci- Why Gypyx? Your last real mentions are 1849 and 1853 and both of those seem in the scum category, which feels weird given who was still on the table?

@sun- I have no questions about yours at this point in time.

Who even decided the lists?

Somebody could have had leftovers, dodgeball style

[Dunnstral]

I am potent

[Dunnstral]

What does potent mean

https:/letmegooglethat.com/?q=potent

[Dunnstral]

Pushes that are quite likely to further the town wincon both by virtue of having good chances to be scum and by being slots that i feel deserve to be put under more scrutiny

OK. Why?

[Dunnstral]

Marci my intentions are pure

[Dunnstral]

I think the information about what Firebringer was planning to do is being misrepresented a bit. Here is how I saw things:

During day 2 Firebringer claims their role. They say they are going to use their ability that they used on wolfbae today on that night. They say they want me to decide the target because I am good with mechanics. I tell them I need to think about it and see what happens. At some point they also claim to have received the cop shot.

So night 2 rolls around and Firebringer again asks me who they should target with the ability they used on wolfbae today. I tell them that they should use the cop shot instead for calibration as I thought their role had a low chance of success and calibration could prove valuable (at this point I thought there was agreement for the dethy hood to use the investigation over vending out new shots, I think it was Morph who said that though and they all distrusted them so I guess they didn't listen. Also Shelly indicated that they would use their cop shot before the day ended.)

Firebringer questions the value of using the cop shot and says it is worthless. I say again that I think they should use the cop but since they don't seem convinced I start going over mech for how they should use their role. I say target outside of the dethy hood, and don't target morph, shello, hermit, or bingle either. I then get more specific and say if they just want a target, choose Dannflor. Firebringer does not respond for the rest of the night phase.

1. It was not clear that Firebringer was going to use the cop shot.

2. They've investigated wolfbae today when I've explained the role should be used outside of the dethy hood. Remember that Firebringer specifically asked me for a target because they said I was good with mechanics.

[Dunnstral]

I received a cop shot N2 and used it last night, should I claim target/result?

Yes.

[Dunnstral]

We also have information on a thief, right?

Confirming their role name is interesting. Assuming it is fortune teller?

[Dunnstral]

So mechanically, should they be giving out more inventions or using the cop shots?

I'd lean investigate over invent.

Marci should investigate if they belive whoever they gave their cop shot to is gonna be able to fire it off prolly

The long answer of course being they should investigate if they think they'll die before the person who invented to them and invent if they think they'll live longer.

[Dunnstral]

If anyone were to think this, I would suggest that since we flipped (now 2) examples of the role, they might want to read it more carefully

We can't see what your role does, just your name.

Sunflower has been thrown off Hell in a Cell and plummeted sixteen feet through an announcer's table.. They were a...

Spoiler:

Town Inventor of Cops of Unknown Reliability Neighbor

It is now Night 3. 48 hours!

experience has won a Darwin Award. They were a...

Spoiler:

Town Inventor of Cops of Unknown Reliability Neighbor

It is now Night 2. 48 hours!

[Dunnstral]

At the end of the day I was actively seeking other's takes on Sunflowers because I got a town ping from them right before the end and nobody would even talk to me.

I don't think this is at all an accurate description of what you were doing.

Here is what you posted:

does my posting look like i've given up to you?

you're saying the only possible elimination today is you so yes it does look you've given up

ok first i do owe StD a post talking about my reasons for finding sunflower scummy before today

Spoiler: cakez talks about sunflower

AMA

can you elaborate more on the csf + hermit + morph + sunflower ones?

also did you wolfread morph at all before the luke case or did you read it and then apply it back if that makes sense?

- ydra

-snip-
Sunflower has some individual posts that pinged me, a lot of which were already called out in thread. 116 feels weirdly overwritten and not like real thoughts. 222 sounds kinda fake to me. 1226 gives me the same vibes as 116, idk if I'm just misreading the tone? like these reads feel very noncomittal and like they aren't backed up by anything. hmmm I will say after finishing the ISO re-read it wasn't as bad as I remembered, their posts have improved recently. i would probably put them in scummish instead of bottom scum on reevaluation.
-snip-

Sunflower has also gone quiet
I want to explore wagoning both of these slots tomorrow

im doing this for my firebuddy

town:
[hermit crab]
[oblivion, dunnstral, dannflor]
[shello&goodbye, lukewarm]

lean town:
[save the dragons]
[firebagel, bingle]

nulltown:
[gypyx, penguin]

conflicted:
[marci, sircakez, spiffeh, pooky, marci]

lean scum:
[morph the cat, actiondan, klick, firebringer, CSF]

scum:
[brian skies]

this readlist sucks im townreading too many people and i don't even really believe in my leanscums. something is wrong

ActionDan hasn't been in the game for a while now, and you just made this readslist?

I have some issues with Sunflower's response to Spiffeh's case in 4254

-In general I agree with Spiffeh's overall assessment that the entire defense is basically self-metaing that they wouldn't play this way as scum. The problem with that for me is Spiffeh's arguments aren't really related to meta at all. So I don't really find "oh I wouldn't play like this as scum" to be a compelling argument.

-Some of the thoughts stated in the post don't seem real to me. For example, Sunflower claims that they were playing pro-town by being inactive day 1 because of how many posts the game was getting. But as a townie, I think it's clearly most important to have your voice heard in thread and to engage others. I don't think townies strategize this way - intentionally posting less to help town?? That just doesn't seem like a legit defense at all. Another point I disliked was the argument that only town would have crumbed in this situation. I find that to be obviously not true across Mafia as a whole, but even specifically to this game, Sunflower's stated awareness of this argument essentially renders it mute because they can twist their own meta to fit the defense.

-I am also not a fan of their defense against Spiffeh's (and mine and some other people's too I think) argument that their vote on Brian was bussing. Saying there was no credit to be gained in voting Brian is not true because there has already been discussion about who was pushing Brian vs who was pushing me, and when I am inevitably eliminated or vigged this game Day One is going to come under a lot of scrutiny as to who was trying to save Brian by pushing me. Sunflower would have looked even worse if they had continued to sit on their vote on me instead of moving to Brian. So maybe there wasn't a ton of towncred to be grabbed from this situation but there certainly is scum motivation for this kind of vote maneuvering.

Sunflower who do you even think is scum??

Sunflower who do you even think is scum??

[Firebringer, Firebagel, Lukewarm]
[experience, morph the cat, Dunnstral, Gypyx, SirCakez, PenguinPower, Cat Scratch Fever]

here's a lazy poe

You are one of the popular elimination candidates today, which is coming in roughly 72 hours, and the best you can offer is a lazy poe?

Like Sunflower's recent posts have also given me the checked out vibes, but it feels like the Brian kind of checked out where they are scum caught in the headlights, I don't feel any sort of town passion or emotion there

the tl;dr is
all game sunflower's posts to me have not felt like they come from a townie's POV. they feel very weirdly written to not rock the boat and to make it very easy for them to change positions based on movements in thread read trajectory. look at the readslist i pointed to day one, they had actiondan on there and he had been replaced for a while at that point. that doesn't look to me like a town going through their reads on the playerlist and making a list, because you would notice stuff like that. i don't understand how they have been unable to offer any real scumreads or pushes well into day three at this point. even before their self-proclaimed inevitable elimination today they hardly had any scumreads they were pushing.
i also found it suspicious that they were mostly absent at the EoD Day 1 when Brian was getting yeeted, they basically only showed up to drop a vote on him and dip. spiffeh has talked about this a lot already.

[Dunnstral]

Firebringer questions the value of using the cop shot and says it is worthless. I say again that I think they should use the cop but since they don't seem convinced I start going over mech for how they should use their role. I say target outside of the dethy hood, and don't target morph, shello, hermit, or bingle either. I then get more specific and say if they just want a target, choose Dannflor. Firebringer does not respond for the rest of the night phase.

i swear you said i should cop someone like Bingle and i did target bingle for cop.
I don't remember if you said i should use my actual role outside of dethy tbh but that makes sense. I thought targetting wolf last night was a good idea for some reason that i don't remember

Yes I did say you should target one of the masons or miller I believe. I don't think you made it clear that you were going to follow that.

This isn't a dig at you, I am clearing up how it would have looked for anybody wanting to roleblock you.

[Dunnstral]

so is anyone but me going to point out the fact we at day 4 when the masons revealed day 2 and the masons are both still alive.

or should i come back on day 5 to repeat how sus this is

Mafia have killed claimed power roles both nights so no I don't think this is cause for concern

[Dunnstral]

Actually I am looking back in our hood and SirCakez had a completely different explanation over the night compared to 6709. They said that people were TMI on Sunflower being town the last day. They didn't even accuse me at all in the hood over night. In fact I talked about how I felt there were weird scumreads on me and SirCakez responded saying people were looking for places to pull scumreads out of. Not 100% on what that means but it doesn't seem to be suspicion.

VOTE: SirCakez

[Dunnstral]

so is anyone but me going to point out the fact we at day 4 when the masons revealed day 2 and the masons are both still alive.

or should i come back on day 5 to repeat how sus this is

Mafia have killed claimed power roles both nights so no I don't think this is cause for concern

pooky claimed ascetic. Thats hardly something i would focus on night 1, but it being pooky it made sense. Morph makes sense just on thread control and pr. I think u overvalue scum deciding kills by power roles.

But then I underestimate power role utility when i make night kill decisions myself soprobably at an impasse

I meant Morph and Shello actually.

[Dunnstral]

Firebringer, what sort of info was your role supposed to give you with that action?

i just gave u the info i got from my action.

Yeah but that's not what I asked. Were you expecting to get what's basically an announcing tracker action when you sent that action in?

It was for the previous night's action.

[Dunnstral]

Keep coping catboi

[Dunnstral]

Like really I can't fathom a possible town mindset that decides the appropriate response to me here is to be inflammatory. If your goal is to get me riled up to attempt to discredit me, well good on you, but I'm not taking the bait.

Alright that wasn't fair I don't have time to read the case right now. I saw a large post about me and that was my response. My role is provable today and tonight and I don't mind claiming if it comes down to it.

[Dunnstral]

Huh I didn't see the latter half of 6496.

Casing Oblivion means what though?

[Dunnstral]

kind of surprised dunnstral wasn't pressing firebagel to do this too

I was doing this yesterday, yeah

[Dunnstral]

Gypyx do you really think spiffeh!scum hard busses his partner yesterday? It feels like youre throwing shit out there just to lessen how many townreads there are.

I could see experience not knowing we're all cop inventors as legit but tbh i just kinda think hes scum ajyways.

Im curious where cakez and oblivion went off to, no presense and nobodies susing them! I would LOVE to vote there today as well

I mean, yeah, i do think it's possible that someone bussed Brian given how hard he rolled over the floor lol, my other theory would be that cakez was another scum power role but basically there kind of has to be a reason for Brian giving up so hard

[Dunnstral]

So it wasn't a real thought then

[Dunnstral]

shocking news, i don't spend 10 minutes pondering every single one of my posts

You shouldn't need to if you are town. You seem to hold different stances on the brian wagon depending on who you are talking about, and it seems that you are simply saying they could have bussed when you are proclaiming a scumread, and being on the wagon is towny when you are proclaiming a townread.

[Dunnstral]

shocking news, i don't spend 10 minutes pondering every single one of my posts

You shouldn't need to if you are town. You seem to hold different stances on the brian wagon depending on who you are talking about, and it seems that you are simply saying they could have bussed when you are proclaiming a scumread, and being on the wagon is towny when you are proclaiming a townread.

What’s the conclusion here, Dunn?

They hold inconsistent opinions, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are mafia.

I do think they felt a bit too defensive when they said they don't spend 10 minutes writing their posts.

So a bit concerned now when before I had them as lean town

[Dunnstral]

I think that mafia will sometimes look at a slot that is not being suspected and come to the conclusion that they are obvious town because to them they are skipping the steps of suspicion and just see the consensus. Their justification for CSF being town included reasoning they argued against in the past. I hardly think CSF needs to be a "mastermind" to bus - and they wouldn't really be orchestrating anything. When I said it doesn't make them mafia it is because I believe they could also be applying this faulty reasoning as town

[Dunnstral]

It received a fruit last night. Not certain that matters or not but for the sake of targets it is claiming

You have been told not once, not twice, but

five times

not to claim this information.

[Dunnstral]

Who are the egos running the game?

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral what do your reads look like atm

Hermit Crab
Bingle
Marci

DragonEater
Csf
Spiffeh
Gypyx

Oblivion
Penguinpower
Firebringer
Firebagel

Dannflor
Save the Dragons
Wolfbae

SirCakez

Something like this

[Dunnstral]

Why is gypyx so high and Dann so low?

Gypyx is high because of the confusion with the masons earlier and some hood speculation. Dann is low because they feel strangely low impact and I am not getting town feelings from them.

[Dunnstral]

Yes

[Dunnstral]

What do you mean 'why'?

I'm pretty sure you do things as town. I've seen you post good content.

[Dunnstral]

What do you mean 'why'?

I'm pretty sure you do things as town. I've seen you post good content.

you’ve seen me do these things as scum too, no?

I don't remember every game we've played but looking back at Toriel's Patience where you were mafia it seems I called you out for having weak content early on before erroneously sheeping other people

[Dunnstral]

6982 i kinda like lowkey? But dunnstral why are wolfbae and savethedragons on the same tier?

I believe that one of them is mafia. I know it is not both of them. I don't think it is you because frankly I think you are easy to spot when you are mafia (no offense) and I'm not seeing it this game. Plus the claim that you were stolen from really lines up with you having both an invention and a fruit (both claimed). But between Save the Dragons and Wolfbae I'm not sure right now.

[Dunnstral]

I didn't say that.

[Dunnstral]

I think the way they angled to suspecting you after your posts was a bad look for them.

[Dunnstral]

ngl im so confused now

I was thinking about spiffehs question and almost just now walked back and say "wolfbae x dunnstral lol" but that sort of makes me rhink u guys arent scum together

Huh

[Dunnstral]

Wolfbae is absolutely HOWLING these past few pages and it's inspiring me to dig into their progression this game with a new mindset. They are the wolf in the dethy and they are not being subtle about it anymore, they are trying to jam through one last miselimination before the walls close in around them.

As I have already stated, marci was repping a scumread on Dunnstral in the hood last night. Now that I am casing him and voted him, she switched to defending him. In and of itself, this is not necessarily scummy - if she's super convinced I am scum, it is natural to not want to vote with me on a wagon.

The problem is that her defense of him is a demonstrable

lie

.

Go back and look at that statement - Dunnstral is an "easy" push who is "getting poed by many".

Is that actually true?

It certainly doesn't seem that way to me. I have gotten almost no support on this vote. The claim of "by many" is vague and has no evidence behind it. Let's go down the living playerlist and look at how they are reading Dunnstral:

Firebringer - is townreading Dunnstral
Dunnstral - is Dunnstral
Gypyx - is scumreading Dunnstral
Spiffeh - is townreading Dunnstral
marcistar - is defending Dunnstral
Oblivion - suspected Dunn Day 1, but hasn't commented on him since
Hermit Crab - is townreading Dunnstral
Save The Dragons - did not express a read on Dunnstral but has stronger scumreads besides him
SirCakez - is scumreading Dunnstral
wolfbae - is scumreading Dunnstral
Bingle - is townreading Dunnstral
PenguinPower - hasn't said anything about Dunnstral
Dannflor - has said Dunn is possible scum
DragonEater70 - just replaced into the game, has not said anything about Dunnstral
Firebagel - hasn't made a comment on Dunn's alignment in ages, I'm not sure how she is reading him
Cat Scratch Fever - is townreading dunnstral


That's 4 people total who have expressed scumreads of Dunnstral or had him in a POE, and one of them is me. So this is a statement that has

absolutely no bearing in reality

. Is it likely marci just misread the thread and perceived him to be more scumread than he actually is? Or did she just not bother to actually check?

OK so does a town Wolfbae

really

expect Marci to be checking every single player for their read on me and making a list like they've done here? Several voices have been floating my name around. This is such a gotcha and Wolfbae trying to be "technically correct" but going through every person's read like this is just not something even I would do unless prompted for some reason. Wolfbae is trying to spin this as Marci maliciously lying.

---

Alright so here is what is going on here. The walls are closing in around the dethy. Wolfbae does not have a long lifespan in this game. They are not trying to live to the end of the game like you would expect from mafia, they are now kicking up a fuss and trying to get one last miselimination through before the walls fully close in and they get taken out. Their read on me seems to ebb and flow as well depending on how viable I look - now that some voices have said they townread me they have backed off and switched targets.

And let's look at what they've been doing for the previous eliminations as well. When we eliminated Brian their slot was fully missing from the game yet they are accusing other players of bussing. When experience was up for elimination they passively agreed with that elimination. When Sunflower was the elimination they kicked up a bit of a fuss but ultimately as the elimination progressed they fell back and let it run its course.

And I think Wolfbae was one of the players who was upset with the mechanics of the game that focus on the dethy, yet today they are the one trying to draw us back into it - and this is totally not something Wolfbae does as town. Town Wolfbae is more than happy to ignore the dethy and focus elsewhere. Wolf Wolfbae wants to guide the elimination to people who will be clear before they flip.

Their SirCakez defense makes no sense. They have 0 progression on SirCakez this whole game. When they first replaced in they called SirCakez "kind of bad" and then never really went anywhere with that. Today they are willing to make wallpost after wallpost to defend SirCakez when they are afk and not posting in thread. Uh...

---

i can lean into emotions as scum but it's driven largely out of a sense of survival where here it's not necessary and going nuclear on a clear probably hurts the perception of me, but i'm fed up and done playing nice

as scum i would just ignore marci because i know she cannot case me remotely effectively - here i am seizing on what i feel is an inconsistency in her reasoning/approach to the thread. i have to...actually figure out her alignment because i am town.

This is disingenuous. Wolfbae is not in a position to survive to the end of the game and by going after Marci they can get an elimination they won't get if they go down first. I think similar reasoning can be applied to their push on me: they were pushing me earlier so might as well test the waters again.

Think about this. Would Wolfbae really be ignoring Marci as mafia here? No... this is exactly where wolf Wolfbae wants to be aiming.

---

Wolfbae's posts today are dripping with scum intent. I no longer have any doubts on the dethy situation. I think this defense of SirCakez is very pairing, too; Wolfbae actively does not want SirCakez to go down. I need to think on this last point about SirCakez maybe. Wolfbae is just openly playing to a Wolf win condition.

VOTE: wolfbae

[Dunnstral]

this is fucking me up because I'm getting paranoid on wolfbae but I also strongly think he is dead on about Dunnstral

May i interest u in a wolfbae wagon

not interested rn

Mostly because wolfbaes pushing him yes.

If wolfbae wasnt obvscum i would prob be voting dunnstral rn.

Just vote Dunn or Penguin, Wolfbae is not happening today. If he's scum it'll become more apparent down the line.

Really pairing posts

[Dunnstral]

If he's scum it'll become more apparent down the line.

Interesting, SirCakez had a very different opinion on the last 2 dethy eliminations

[Dunnstral]

Keep coping catboi

such a garbage response

VOTE: Dunnstral

I really doubt this is the real reason SirCakez placed their vote on me. They saw that I was pushing them.

[Dunnstral]

Actually I am looking back in our hood and SirCakez had a completely different explanation over the night compared to 6709. They said that people were TMI on Sunflower being town the last day. They didn't even accuse me at all in the hood over night. In fact I talked about how I felt there were weird scumreads on me and SirCakez responded saying people were looking for places to pull scumreads out of. Not 100% on what that means but it doesn't seem to be suspicion.

VOTE: SirCakez

the very simple answer to this is Sunflower flipped town. a lot of my takes changed overnight because of that obviously. I didn't see any reason to bring this specific SR up in the hood overnight, I wanted the discourse to be here

There was no discourse. They just threw me in a pool of three players and left the thread. They were not looking for a discussion. This is fake reasoning.

[Dunnstral]

Also Cakez's vote is atrocious.

[Dunnstral]

This was probably too curt and dismissive, so let me revisit this

I doubt I have perfect reads on the game, maybe you're right about someone I'm wrong on

the thing is I pretty well doubt cakez and dann are teammates. If they are they're committed to doing almost nothing but bussing each other all game which is pretty weird and doesn't feel like a coherent strategy, at least not from dann

in fact it's kind of hard to see who cakez would have as potential teammates, at east from my POV

sure, you could argue with it being one of me or marci, but who outside of that?

I don't think he's ever scum with the Lukewarm slot or Oblivion. Probably not scum with Dunnstral either.

That leaves...Gypyx/Spiffeh/Penguin/Firebagel/CSF as possibe teammates. IDK, I guess I can't rule out teammates in there so I can't clear him off that, none of them are impossible off memory/based on brief ISO skims. (although CSF i still think is town ofc)

Speaking from experience, this kind of "who are their teammates" thing comes from scum talking about other scum as a way to defend them. They don't have to actually engage with their partner's posts, it's easy to do.

[Dunnstral]

One last thing that was on my mind but I forgot to write about. At one point Wolfbae made a large case in their dethy neighborhood that Morph was mafia. Morph then died that same night. Some people called Wolfbae town for that. What we have thus far failed to consider is that if Wolfbae were to be a traitor, he would not be privy to the information that Morph was dying that night. Their case on Morph now looks pretty scummy under that light IMO.

[Dunnstral]

especially with how easily people are getting back to "kill in the hood" mindset

Is it easy? Is it

really

easy?

Further, I posted an entire motherfucking

case

detailing all my issues, it's not like this is

for no reason at all

. This is based on what I believe to be strong evidence.

At least try to pretend like you read it?

I feel like dunn made a very covincing point about wolfbae that really puts into words a lot of feelings i never would've been able to express, what do you think about it

Happy cake day btw !

well that's because you suck at mafia gypyx

Did

you

even read my post before ad hom attacking Gypyx right after saying they didn't read a post?

[Dunnstral]

masons (?)

[Dunnstral]

a terrible case on me that played into pre-existing biases owing to me scumreading you ages ago.

I didn't mention or reference Gypyx at all

[Dunnstral]

a terrible case on me that played into pre-existing biases owing to me scumreading you ages ago.

I didn't mention or reference Gypyx at all

not my point

my point is gypyx was predisposed to not lie me because I called her scum back on Day 2

A quick look at Gypyx iso makes me think that it is not true that they have been predisposed to scumread you.

[Dunnstral]

I attempted to play this way in the disastrous Prism v. 1L Year, a game where I got so tilted I swore I was quitting the site. (This held for a 8 months or so, making it one of the more successful quits in my career). Trying to pay passively didn't work and got me scumread for being weird. I had good reads that game, and no attempt at explaining them was remotely effective. Bad habits returned, and I ragequit the game and the site from there. If you're wondering why I was harsh toward Lukewarm here, this game is why. I think he has a massively outsized ego relative to his actual skill at the game, given he more or less hard scumsided that game. (This does not mean any part of my read on him was a grudge. I thought his play this game was legitimately scummy and I would hope the actual explanations I gave would make it clear this was not a petty thing).

Hey I was in this game. I was mafia. Looking over my iso for a refresher and I was calling you town in this game and trying to .. appeal? Or work with you. I don't think I was specifically targeting you really, I was just floating by and trying to look town while being amicable. I don't really have a point here I guess.

[Dunnstral]

Happy birthday Save the Dragons!

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral's case is a little bit of taking the weakest of wolfbae's case and using it to push him instead of talking about the more meaty parts of the case

I actually agree if wolfbae is scum here, the rest of his post probably accurately describes his agenda, but that part doesn't sit right

What parts do you feel I haven't addressed?

I pointed to what I felt was scummy.

[Dunnstral]

If he's scum it'll become more apparent down the line.

Interesting, SirCakez had a very different opinion on the last 2 dethy eliminations

I didn't understand this
(The link to the original quotedidn't get copied)

Well SirCakez wasn't pushing experience but they were pushing people to choose within the dethy and to pick between experience or Sunflower (though they were pushing for sunflower specifically). On day 2 they wanted the vote to be in the dethy as can be seen here:

VOTE: wolfbae

the intrusive thoughts

they are strong

No chance this is happening today, pick Sunflower or Experience (but really just Sunflower)

(And looking back at this they were against a vote on Wolfbae too, which kind of hurts the dethy point but bolsters the scum pairing I guess)

On day 3 they pushed Sunflower with a lot of Gusto and talked about looking at the experience wagon.

Now on day 4? Wolfbae will make their alignment clear eventually.

Heck, SirCakez says "Wolfbae is not happening today" on both day 2 and day 4. SirCakez must be really patient!

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

this is fucking me up because I'm getting paranoid on wolfbae but I also strongly think he is dead on about Dunnstral

May i interest u in a wolfbae wagon

not interested rn

Mostly because wolfbaes pushing him yes.

If wolfbae wasnt obvscum i would prob be voting dunnstral rn.

Just vote Dunn or Penguin, Wolfbae is not happening today. If he's scum it'll become more apparent down the line.

Really pairing posts

For CSF, the quote was also in my post above here (And it happens 3 times)

[Dunnstral]

If peta is scum i almost think he wants to hand me a scum on a silver platter right now.

Do you think there are 2 mafia in the dethy?

[Dunnstral]

Dunnstral's case is a little bit of taking the weakest of wolfbae's case and using it to push him instead of talking about the more meaty parts of the case

I actually agree if wolfbae is scum here, the rest of his post probably accurately describes his agenda, but that part doesn't sit right

What parts do you feel I haven't addressed?

I pointed to what I felt was scummy.

I feel like the listing out the number of people scumreading you was only a secondary point in the case. The primary point was that she should care more about defending Cakez over you because cakes is under much more pressure, which I think is definitely true given how this day has played out

Since you didn't say anything about it, it makes me think you didn't take issue with the highlight of the case

Yeah I don't have much thought on that. I don't really know how marci is at "SirCakez top town" right now. (Marci you should look at the pairing posts between SirCakez and Wolfbae).

[Dunnstral]

If peta is scum i almost think he wants to hand me a scum on a silver platter right now.

Do you think there are 2 mafia in the dethy?

i think its possible

I don't think it is likely at all

[Dunnstral]

Do u think its peta and he is trying to diverge us away from cakez?

Well as a matter of fact, I made a large post saying this, yes.

cause i think peta scum just lets scum cakez die right here.

Wolfbae is not in a position to carry this game because they are in the dethy hood, so I do not believe this to be true in this case.

[Dunnstral]

The walls are closing in around the dethy. Wolfbae does not have a long lifespan in this game. They are not trying to live to the end of the game like you would expect from mafia, they are now kicking up a fuss and trying to get one last miselimination through before the walls fully close in and they get taken out.

What the hell were u even talking about here. Half the playerlist has been saying not to kill in the dehty right now to avoid a possible mislim. This is such a strange view of current events. From ur argument its like one of the dethy is gonna have to die but its more like none of them are on the chopping block but ur seeing peta trying to get one more mislim in here.

Wolfbae is not going to be able to endgame because the dethy will eventually be solved, even if that is not right this moment

Wolfbae is not going to be playing like mafia who is trying to endgame.

[Dunnstral]

He doesn't need SirCakez to endgame. He just needs to disrupt things so it's not SirCakez now, and then looking at SirCakez iso and seeing SirCakez soft defending Wolfbae all game. Which leads to an elimination of Wolfbae as well.

But even if it didn't lead to an elimination on Wolfbae, just disrupting town from getting that mafia elimination here is useful. Even if SirCakez is eliminated later... I don't think Wolfbae would be bussing or even passive about a mafia going down

[Dunnstral]

You are claiming that mafia want each other to be eliminated which is a wild opinion to have

This is a really weird angle for a defense

[Dunnstral]

OK Firebringer. I think that there is an advantage for Wolfbae to be defending other mafia players as mafia. You think Wolfbae would let them die. I disagree.

[Dunnstral]

I didn't "come into this game day" with this. This is all in response to Wolfbae's posts today which casued me to reevaluate. I didn't say scum were in a tight spot, I said the walls are closing in around Wolfbae to explain their play.

[Dunnstral]

when all we have done is mislim townies for now 2 days, and are likely on track to elim another.

Haven't you voted for both SirCakez and Marci today? Who are you talking about?

[Dunnstral]

Your link is an error Marci

[Dunnstral]

I dunno, I’m back and forth. I really think peta is town so I’ll probably just end up sheeping, but I do think it’s weird that we’re shifting the public eye back into the dethy when it’s gone *so* well for us so far?

I feel like theres an angle dunn didn’t mention (note I am not saying I believe this angle) in that scum is in a rough position outside of Peta so he’s trying to squeeze that extra miselim out of the hood. This would tie in with that benefit scum most likely got.

There’s also an angle where scum did just get an incentive, and it is on marci and Dunn wants to protect both her and the incentive. I’m just confused why the incentive wasn’t factored in it this equation?

I don't think it is relevant to my point since SirCakez was the lead wagon, not Wolfbae.

Also I think you are confused here. I don't think it was stated that the incentive is attached to the scum in the dethy which you are assuming and that is a big assumption.

[Dunnstral]

Also I totally mentioned that angle in the middle

[Dunnstral]

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... mber-Party

Does copying that in work

Yes. It is 178 pages though, and each page is 50 posts so would be 356 on this site

[Dunnstral]

When I try to go to 2nd and 3rd page of your iso there I get an error

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: SirCakez

This seems more realistic and might prompt reevaluation on Wolfbae

[Dunnstral]

actually its sort of inappropriate are u sure u wanna hear it...

[Dunnstral]

In truth I’ve only read like the previous 15ish pages and that’s all I’m likely to do. wolfbae is almost certainly never scum here and I think he’s approach pocketing me differently if he were.

VOTE: marci

So... there's 3 people in the dethy

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: std

And this is the only time you have mentioned Save the Dragons all game

[Dunnstral]

I promise to provide a read on Marci/Wolfbae situation in the next 5 hours but opening this game thread and reading all the really good points and well thought-out posts from a bunch of people who are currently on opposite sides of the game board, and having to decide which side is right and which is wrong, is making me want to go back to sleep.

OK so here is what mech information we have:

Mafia have a bookie because Shello was an oddskeeper and Brian was a backup bookie

Mafia have a thief because the 3 compulsive fruit vendors are claiming their role hints at it by having their fruit give power to mafia when it gets stolen. In addition this game is full of dethy cop shots and other inventions for mafia to swipe away

Mafia have a roleblocker because Firebringer claimed roleblocked on night 2

And 1 mafia flipped backup bookie/bus driver. It can be assumed but is not confirmed that mafia inside the dethy is a traitor.

---

Here is what else we can infer:

The mafia in the dethy is either multitasking or has none of the above powers, because cop inventions

have

been handed out by everybody

The roleblocker has access to the Night Market neighborhood: Which is Bingle, Hermit, Me, Spiffeh, Firebringer, SirCakez. We can infer this because Firebringer only claimed the cop in the neighborhood, while other players (like Shello) claimed it in the main thread and yet were not blocked

The thief on Marci was real. Hermit talked about this earlier, Marci apparently knew things about how the theft worked that would have been difficult to fake. In addition, Marci had both a fruit and a cop invention on her person (both claimed), and the cop invention was from the dead town, so we were prevented from getting any info on what their invention sanity is.

It is possible that Marci is a traitor and the mafia team still stole from her without knowing... or for like, wifom I guess, but that seems unlikely to me.

---

Several slots have claimed to receive fruit this game, including yours. The masons are claiming they are compulsive, and they can't use inventions (I asked about this in the hood).

Heck I was able to guess that they were compulsive before they had even claimed that part. That's post 367 in the night market for those following along, followed by 370 me asking if you could use inventions.

SirCakez is a Compulsive Fruit vendor... this seems like the easiest mafia role to be multitasking with one of those other mafia powers. Actually we don't even have confirmation that they've actually been vending fruit, nobody is claiming anything so I can't tell if all the claims past day 1 are from the masons or no. But let's assume that they have sent out fruit every night - They could still also be... a bookie, a roleblocker, even a thief. I have to assume that a mafia would not just be a compulsive fruit vendor in this setup, though it is a great claim to pair up with the 2 masons (or to cause confusion)

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: marci

Yeah, fair enough STD.

I'm taking this as permission to pursue my marci scumread.

Also, for what it's worth "marci is town because marci was hesitant about revealing the dethy" is fucking bullshit because scum is usually ALSO INCREDIBLY HESITANT ABOUT OUTING ROLES.

Wasn't it the other way around? People were townreading marci for blurting stuff about it out? None of these townreads of her have ever quite clicked in my head including the stuff about her being town because of fruit being stolen (I asked for clarification on that and I never got any and you guys seem to be walking that back?)

Yeah I'm not sure why they are walking back on this now. Well that's true, I do know why: They are paranoid of me and are actively working against me instead of asking for my full claim or anything.

Here is what they posted about Marci:

wait why

Town invention receivers are not supposed to know that their invention can be stolen. I’m town and I give fruit that explicitly let someone know if their fruits get stolen. This implies that thief role is scum. So either Marci faked their stuff being stolen on purpose for some whatever reason while knowing all this, or Marci is just town.

-HM

wait why

Town invention receivers are not supposed to know that their invention can be stolen. I’m town and I give fruit that explicitly let someone know if their fruits get stolen. This implies that thief role is scum. So either Marci faked their stuff being stolen on purpose for some whatever reason while knowing all this, or Marci is just town.

-HM

On top of this, no offense but I don’t think Marci is mech player, nor the most people in this playerlist, to even try to attempt things like this. If anyone would come up with this as scum, I think it would be Dunn. So aside from Marci-Dunn scum, I think this just makes marci town.

-HM

I did say that the thief stolen thing needs to be confirmed.

We never disclosed exactly how our fruits could be manipulated, so nobody but the vendors should’ve known that stealing fruits alerts them. Given that the inventors not knowing that their inventions can be stolen and scum most likely being one of the inventors, the chance is that our roles are supposed to fuck them over somehow if caught in action and that scum probably don’t know about what fruit does, unless Cakez is scum.

-HM

Wait it alerts the fruit vendor when it gets stolen?

No it alerts the fruit holder.
The sole reason why marci knew that her things got stolen in the first place.

-HM

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: marci

Yeah, fair enough STD.

I'm taking this as permission to pursue my marci scumread.

Also, for what it's worth "marci is town because marci was hesitant about revealing the dethy" is fucking bullshit because scum is usually ALSO INCREDIBLY HESITANT ABOUT OUTING ROLES.

And no this was never a reason used by anybody