STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[grapes]

And now we're forgetting that the alliance was set up by confirmed town. Not allying was not only not necessary considering skybirds position, but would also be suspect. Along with killing xk. Along with allying elsewhere; it isn't as though people were jumping up and down asking for sky and twin for an alliance.

But like I said; probably not gonna break through here. For fucks sake you're still parked on me from day start.
A50 isn't much better in that regard.

[Reasonably Rational]

The skybird part wasn't set up by anyone else. The TWINWINGS alliance was.

Skybird hopping in was entirely of her own volition .

That's WHY I keep saying the alternatives were "risking Skybird" versus "increasing suspicion on twinwings if anyone cared about the alliance failing(which, based on the games track record, nobody would have cared much about).

-Cerb

[grapes]

I keep getting distracted from this iso-dive.

If we're talking about alliance choices being suspect.

Why isn't it cause for alarm from anyone that cakes made people who he was in a hood with bulletproof and Almost included him in his mass-neighborizor.
I realize that this is watered down given that a50 and cakes just through interactions here have shared more than a game. But much more compelling than "almost would ally with a scumbuddy to give them strongmanz" IMO.

[Reasonably Rational]

Speaking of the vote, it doesn't matter if it's on you or not on anybody(because that's where it would be at this moment, until a sure determination is made what the consensus is. *shrug* it's impossible to lynch you today, so the vote is meaningless.
-Cerb

[grapes]

Doesn't make it any less scratchy.

[mastin2]

By the way, how's this sound for a plan?

Today we lynch one of Fuzzy/RR.
You bubble the other.

Tomorrow, we have either 6p mylo, or 5p lylo depending on the scum killing or not killing.
I think that me allying with grapes is best no matter what (and there is the whole, I might not have a choice, thing, but if I did...), though if you wanted me to not do so, then if RR is lynched and the game continued, I would honor your request.
But! Assuming that I did ally with grapes, there are two outcomes:
-

I was nightkilled:

lynch grapes tomorrow.

If grapes is town...

then Shiro must be town, and you lynch Almost50.

If grapes was scum...

then you make a judgment call between Almost50 and Shiro. Personally given that choice, I'd lynch Shiro in a heartbeat, since the only thing clearing Shiro right now is that Shiro can't be solo-scum.

-

I lived:

we attempt to lynch grapes tomorrow.

If two scum are alive...

then the lynch succeeds, grapes gets lynched, and flips mafia.
In lylo, you make a judgment call, between Shiro and Almost50. Again, given that, I'd lynch Shiro.

If one scum is alive...

then grapes cannot be lynched, and Shiro must be town. As a result, you've got two lynches for two candidates: Almost50 tomorrow, and grapes in the 3p/4p lylo/mylo, who cannot be saved by my ability.

Yes, there is a coinflip involved IF grapes is scum. But let me lay out a concise case for why I don't think grapes is:
-Let's start with what we are assuming here. If there are two scum alive, we are assuming one of them was a leftover who joined the scum faction. We are assuming this player is grapes, as the only viable candidate.
-This means grapes did not start out as scum. Meaning, on D1, grapes was town. This also means on N1, grapes was town, and that the scum really did try to kill grapes N1.
-grapes would therefore have had to, on some later date, taken the option to join the scumteam, having not started with them.
-However, I ask you: thinking of grapes's play, do you think this fits the narrative? grapes drove a scum lynch through D1 HARD. Like, was the main pusher of that scum lynch, hard. He was also killed BY the scum, though he had no way of knowing that until the event Historical Friction demonstrated as much.
So, does this sound like the profile of someone who would willingly join the scumteam? Again. Scum was lynched D1. Scum was lynched D3. Scum was killed D4. Scum was lynched D5. So, what day would grapes have decided to join? From Xkfyu's flip, we know that a leftovers joining scum would likely have a stress requirement.
I'm going to further posit that this stress requirement was negative stress, as a counterpart to Xkfyu's positive stress. But even if that is a faulty assumption. What days could grapes join the scumteam and expect it to be a faster route to winning than just lynching all of the scum? There's D1, but we can safely assume grapes was town then.
There's D2, though that had positive stress. There's D3, though that had neutral stress. Each day after that has progressively less and less incentive for grapes to join the scumteam: Skybird's death is a HUGE deterrent from grapes joining. TWIE's death is a further deterrent from grapes deciding to join. And Shadow_step's death would leave scum with only one member left alive, so grapes definitely wouldn't join at that point.

Think of this logically, from a playpoint perspective.
We know that grapes is either telling the truth and is town,
Or is lying and a leftovers turned scum. (Because if grapes were a third party not turned scum, grapes would just claim as such.)

If the former is the case, then grapes is town and never had a chance to be scum, nor did grapes ever consider it, pushing purely as town the whole game.
If the latter is the case, then grapes chose to side with a team which was continuously on the losing end of plays. We can assume grapes was town D1 easily enough. We can assume then that grapes saw the scumflip of a strong scum role D1. Which makes more sense for grapes to do? Join the team which was just crippled...
...Or fight for the win for the team that is currently ahead? (The town.)

In other words, I don't think we'll ever see a grapes scumflip. From a playpoint perspective--and viewing things from PLAY is a huge fucking thing--it is suboptimal in every way for grapes to side with scum. They have been the losing team since D1.
So I think that following this plan will basically ensure scum cannot win. (I mean, grapes is positing an Almost50-Shiro scumteam which could win, but I'm not willing to entertain that possibility. Almost50 as scum, sure. Shiro as not-solo-scum, sure. But the two together? Nah, I'll eat the loss if I'm wrong there.)

[grapes]

Okay so I just realized that my case on Almost was literally just HALF of his Day 1. : p
I'm gonna take the next hour and just go through the second half.
You guys get a quote-wall this time because fuck all yall. (jk)

Mastina and I both want Cakey. Sheepy?

Let's just wait and see who else is going to join the wagon.

This was where I left off last time for obvious reasons.

^ ^ ^ This is not anything that I've ever seen from A50 before.

Great. Now if you would be so kind as to define what "This" is, I'd be in your owe. Thank you.

Also, what do you mean your vote is not working today? Are you voteless?

Pretty obviously the post she was pointing at.
Looks like a pointless question used as an excuse to role-fish. (like third or forth person he's blatantly fished)

Which, is meh most of the time like I normally hate when people just go "rolefishing" and then plop a vote down but this is the same person who fluffed on and on pregame about how he didn't want people claiming to him in alliances for fear that would make him look bad.

He also asked me to claim when we allied despite this as well.

Simplified version for scumhunting beginners: He's trying to convey one mentality (a lamist I don't need to know yall's claims) while displaying another where he's

very

interested in flipped town's role Pms.

Almost50 would know how I play as scum.

Don't know, now would I?? What do you think?

What? No comment from the wagon-hopping Creature??

And I touched on this earlier but this buddy-buddy bullshit is how scum push soft targets.

new reads

Town: Fire, mastin, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, A50, Seraphim, NC, grapes, Seraphim
Null: Kraskaesque, KTS, Skybird, Random, TWIE, DGB, CoolDog, Klingon
Nullscum: Xkfyu, Snarky, Shiro, Foxbird
Scum: McMenno, Obi, Reasonably Rational

There is one townread I have that might be wrong, but I'm still thinking it over.

Upon some review
Moving CoolDog down to nullscum, Klingon to nullscum, Snarky to null, Xkfyu to scum and Kraska to nulltown
The rest of my nulls have basically nothing

Town: Fire, mastin, farside, Yume
Nulltown: Creature, A50, Seraphim, NC, grapes, Seraphim, Kraskaesque,
Null: KTS, Skybird, Random, TWIE, DGB, Snarky
Nullscum: Shiro, Foxbird, CoolDog, Klingon
Scum: McMenno, Obi, Reasonably Rational, Xkfyu

Posts like these make me think SC is TOWN. I don't care if his reads are accurate or not. It's the fact that he has a DYNAMIC read list that is moving rapidly with every update. To me; scum (and scum!SC to be precise) have an almost static read list and try to move 2-3 names at most just to make it look like they're doing something.

Moving SC up to TOWN (3rd tier on my reads)

I'm convinced at this point that almost probably went all-in on just treating sircakes as town.
There would have been a lot more fallout had he turned around.
There's no compelling reason anywhere for him to have had cakes as a lock townread.

Stuff like this is bad.

All almost has done to "case" me is say that creature distanced me by sheeping me ???

Deja vu! This is the exact SHIT Scum!beeboy was doing in our previous game (Sorry, beeboy, but it WAS some lousy stuff you did in Gistou).

You misrep (or maybe think what you say is true for real) and then you start believing in your own shit and keep on repeating it like a broken record. beeboy overly repeated I was a member of a certain PT when I was not an absolutely nobody else said that I was. You keep repeating that I equated sheeping to distancing and are starting to believe yourself and repeat in anon-stop loop!

Distancing was in INCLUDING YOU in his SHORT SCUM LIST. He then IMMEDIATELY AFTER decided to sheep you on a case on someone that was NOT on his scum list to begin with (me). That shows he was NOT scum reading you for real, but only put you there for distancing (is that close to the rule of 3 Titus has been talking about?).

Anyway, distancing is FoSing your buddy (sometimes supported by an actual vote and sometimes not) just to make it look like you are not of the same team. Sheeping you was the TELL that uncovered the fact this was distancing, not the actual distancing act.

And this is just one example but. All of almost's scumreads day 1 were reactionary up until this point. Later on in the iso they begin to shift from either that or chainsawing for sircakes.

Stuff like this isn't trying to get someone lynched. It's telling someone why their scumread makes sense when you apply 50 different filters to it and is made worse by the person he's explaining that read to

being that read

.

Not that I expect him to answer for anything at this point but yea.

I sincerely do apologize, but I have a deficiency in my own personality (so I acknowledge that it's my own fault and has nothing to do with you). That said deficiency is actually the inability to communicate and construct a fruitful dialogue with people with an IQ below a certain level. Have someone else talk to me about the same issues and I might be inclined to respond more appropriately.

P.S. See? Now THAT is how a true moron should respond, don't you think?? Keep on...

VOTE: Almost50
Not liking the recent changes in tone with Almost and him in the PT.

Another shining start on the rise. Everyone who has previous experience with me should see that I'm being overly obv!towning here (and don't you dare think it's not for a reason). I'd give a semi-pass (not even a full pass) to those who have no prior experience with me (or those who have very little experience, like maybe one game in which one of us died early). But YOU, Sir get NO PASS AT ALL. You know me inside out and have seen me multiple times as both alignments, and even know what I would be doing in a game like this if I was scum.

There are exactly TWO people here whom I would NOT accept being scum read by, and those are firebringer and beeboy, having been scum partners with me previously and knowing exactly how I planned my moves in both incidents. There's also one more person here who should know this is exactly town me being extremely annoyed and losing it altogether, because THEY have been the subject of my wrath once before (I don't mean to bring on bad memories, mate. I'm just spewing junk out of extreme annoyance. SORRY!)

Now you go back to that friggin VT and talk about the subject me, far & SC have been discussing. Let's make a stand and let's TRY to stay united before the Joy Ride quest/adventure/whatever it is we're up to starts. If we're not united and we're not trusting eachother it could backfire if it's anything like the Dungeon Quests in Bloodborne.

Again, firebringer makes the slightest mention of almost being scum and here's almost with a paragraph of tangential self-meta bullshit.

MAGENTA WOLF

HAS REALIZED THAT WHAT WAS WRONG WAS THAT HIS ENTIRE TEXT WAS COLORED.

HE HAS FIXED THE MISTAKE IN THIS POST.

MAGENTA WOLF

would not mind lynching Almost.

See? THAT one is acceptable. Why? Bc I only played with KTS once, and he was annoying and I was hating his play. We eventually lynched him on D1 and he flipped town (and so was I, but the point is he never saw scum!me before, and he never even played long enough with town!me either.)

Continuing the same trend here of reactionary reads.


I mean can you say contrived-overview-of-the-game once with me? All his reads are based on people's reads of him. Other than his unexplained xk, skybird and foxbird townreads.

He doesn't really GIVE any reactionary change to foxbirds fos-y kinds of questions now that I'm thinking about it either.
(and in my previous case you can see that his interactions with foxbird in particular don't look very good first off -- but are in stark contrast to his interactions with others asking him about the same level of questions. Involvement-wise anyway.)

Almost, every time you say you are 'obvtown', i hear 'i know my own scum meta and am acting differently from it'. the fact that you know this means you could replicate it... that defense is meaningless.

Yeah, I know. Well, those who know me know me well, and those who don't won't be able to tell!

Just stay tuned.

Btw, I feel "just a teeny weeny l'il bit" better about NC, so moving it one notch up to Null-Scum.

It's a tad scummy that he just happened to feel a little bit better about NC at the same time he decided to fluff response to NC itself here.

Shiro caught me role fishing
Shiro caught me trying to OUT the Lie Detector.
Shiro considers outing someone's role is BAD and comes from LIKELY SCUM.

Varsoon warns us about outing our FLAVOUR.
Many players have repeatedly explained how OUTING FLAVOUR COULD BE DETRIMENTAL to Town.

Oh you are also potentially town to me, forgot that I took you joining a pt with steven as a huge,

most likely connie

,most likely town.

I'm extremely and utterly impressed!

Almost is just about 50 years old. Do you all think it's a good idea to keep assuming that he doesn't know the difference between haggling for information that's vague or may not have been meant to share vs. stating the obvious?

Come on now guys.

FTR, THAT was a huge part of why I town read you, Sky. You asking me to explain just didn't make any sense though. I could not have gone and said I Town read you bc allying with Steven resulted in you permanently possessing a double-vote, which most likely meant you were Connie.

Okay so the reasoning for the sky townread comes out.
Begs the question why foxbird was in the same tier.

Yo let's lynch cakes guys.

Or not!!!

You see, I'm a bit confpuzzled here. On the one hand, Mastina, Obi, Yume are all conf!Town to me, and grapes is Strong Town, and they're all on Cakez. On the other hand, NC & Shiro are also voting there, and my own read on SC isn't even leaning scum.

Oh, and I STILL don't want to lynch inside my own Joy Trip. It could result in some disaster if it's anything like the Dungeon Quests back in Bloodborne.

@Cakez:

FGS Town it up. Even if you are Scum, please go get lynched when you're NOT in my Event. Better yet, if you're Town give me something conclusive in our own PT to defend you with.

Almost why would you think dungeon quests from another game would be anything like hoods in this one?

It's just silly at this point.

It doesn't make any sense to townread cakes for being in an alliance with him either but that gets more prudent later.

You're acting like multiple people haven't given good reasons why he's scum or something.
If there's scum in your joy trip, I think we should lynch them.

True, but that's a BIG IF. I'm town reading him .. sort of. farside is too. Not sure about FB who is like a hurricane, and CooLDoG is a lurksack in this game.

I see more obvious scum elsewhere and I don't see why I need to lynch someone I'm actually town reading over someone I'm scum reading, and hardly so.

Trying awfully hard to 1) Make me rethink my cakes read. 2) Make others in the hood seem more scummy.

Scummy as fuck and makes no sense considering all I've seen is "I don't want to lynch in my hood".

Btw, I feel "just a teeny weeny l'il bit" better about NC, so moving it one notch up to Null-Scum.

i forgot about this comment.

what changed, Almost? my posting volume went way down around the time before you made this post, and i don't remember doing too much in that timeframe.

Then maybe you should keep it down!

Good question from chara here and almost just -dodges- it.

did you miss where SirCakez posted the first list, and Creature commented "too many null reads"?
i'm fairly certain that was the direct cause of the rapid reads change.

Why do I get the feeling you're underestimating SC? I knoe he's NOT naive by any means. He simply would NOT do THAT!

P.S. I've seen SCUM!Cakez more than I've seen Town!him. *Nods firmly*

So he concedes the point that cakes changed up his reads more than likely for creature pointing out he had too many nulls.
How would that be underestimating sircakes?

Why didn't he take the time to enlighten us about what was dynamic within the readslist (what he townread him for earlier) here? If that was a thing that he believed.

It's almost like reverse-bussing at this point if I had to give it a name. AND IT WORKS HOLY FUCK.

is you claiming to be scum, then getting annoyed when you ARE read as scum!!

That isn't why Farside is reading me as scum and you know it.

Regardless! WHY do you care about the REASON as long as you are SCUM READ?

I don't care if people scumread me based on my stupid joke.

I care when Farside makes up this stupid reason that I am scum. That I am associated with both Snarky and Shiro,

and before we even have one flip of either of them. I am a teammate of them

.

Like fuck off, you don't know shit

Ok, let's make it official: Do you, or don't you want to get lynched in order to win? I'm asking you right here and now in public under everyone's sights. DO YOU WANT TO GET LYNCHED?

[/quote]
This post actually rings kinda town imo.
Like, scum don't blatantly jester-hunt like this because they don't really a need to. But if we assume almost is insane then it's probably null.

--

Gonna break this up into a couple posts and the more meaty stuff to come after I go eat a sandwhich and contemplate why I spend my freetime on this shit.

[mastin2]

Mastin, if you are wrong and I am dead tommorow, will you push a fuzzy lynch to the death ?

Well ideally the gems would take care of that by bubbling Fuzzy, assuming an RR lynch and the game continuing. (I mean. I mean it when I say I just don't see that happening. But humoring you, if it did, this is my stance.)

The gems have been saying that grapes needs to die before they bubble someone--I ask of them, why would that be? They can just bubble one of Fuzzy/RR (the one we don't lynch), who are people whose alignment isn't cleared up by a grapes flip. You're the only player whose alignment gets cleared up in a grapes flip. (At least, a grapes townflip.) So all a grapes lynch does is tell the gems not to rebubble you, which is optimal play anyway. (Assuming one scum left, it is proven you're not it, so just blindly bubbling from the pool of possible scum, the bubble target should be within Almost50/RR/Fuzzy/grapes. grapes is a bad bubble because grapes wouldn't flip, leaving Almost50/RR/Fuzzy. Of them, RR/Fuzzy make the most sense. And we're lynching one today, so the other logically makes the most sense to be bubbled.)

And at this point, my basic request is to say fuck theoretical play, and stick to known variables in play.
For instance, while it is not a proven fact that farside was killed N6, it is a safe assumption, because she was a known claimed ascetic (and thus, scum had no reason to target her), nobody claimed to have targeted her (and thus, the player targeting her must have been scum), she claimed to have gained a point from targeting her (and thus, we know she was targeted), and she was town (and thus, had no reason to lie about having been targeted). Between those factors, the simplest conclusion which fits all the facts is that farside was in fact the N6 kill.

Similarly, while it is not a proven fact that grapes was killed N1, it is a safe assumption, because we know that Not Chara had an alliance-based power which protected grapes from the kill. We know that grapes if scum is a leftover who didn't start with the faction and only joined them later. We know that TWIE claimed to have made Skybird's action the truth. We know that TWIE was not confirmed scum when he submitted this action. We know that the only way for it to have been faked is if Skybird, posthumously, was paying enough attention to the game to submit this action at the request of her scumbuddies. We also know that there was no successful scum kill N1. Between all of these factors, the simplest conclusion which fits all the facts and requires the least explanation is that grapes was indeed the N1 kill.

So. Using known variables in play, e.g. Shiro cannot be solo-scum, farside was killed N6, grapes was killed N1, to go over the game from a play perspective. Not even a mechanical perspective! While mechanics support my argument that grapes isn't leftover-turned-scum, fuck mechanics. Sticking just to these known facts and known variables, read the course of the game and ask:

Who makes the most sense as being scum?
Who makes the least amount of sense as being town?

This is what I ask. I've shown my process here multiple times, why I don't think grapes fits the narrative as leftovers-turned-scum, and for that matter, doesn't fit the narrative as groupscum-from-the-start.
I've shown why I don't think Fuzzy is groupscum. (Not by mechanics, by play.)
I haven't really shown strong evidence for Almost50, admittedly.
But I've shown why I think the narrative of the game fits best with Reasonably Rational as scum calling the shots.

Purely. from. play. Not mechanics, though those have contributed to my assumptions and strengthened them.
Not by roles, though those contribute to my argument.
Not by some theoretical gamebreaking strategy.

By play. Just play. I've shown why I think Reasonably Rational is scum and everyone else is town.

Now, from RR, what I've asked is simple: show me wrong with actions in the NOW.
From others, what I've asked is also simple: show my logic wrong. Show me, off of play, why Reasonably Rational makes less sense as being scum than other players.
Show me, off of play, why your scumspect makes the most sense as being scum out of all the players.
Show me, off of play, why your scumspect doesn't make sense as being town more than any other player.
Show me, off of play, why RR makes sense as being town.

This is all that I have asked. Nothing more.

[mastin2]

And you flat out are coasting on “RR is the last scum”.

You and I have very different definitions of coasting.

Because contrary to RR's claims.
This isn't a tunnel.
Like. My process REVOLVES. It fucking REVOLVES. Around being shown wrong. Around showing WHY I have come to the conclusions I have. And demonstrating knowledge of the other theories and WHY I don't feel they are true. And then asking others to show WHERE I went wrong in those. I ask, I demand, to be shown wrong. I plead, I beg, to be given reason to believe I am going down the wrong track.

I have done nothing but show, reason after reason, every damn day, every new reflection I have had. Every new thought. Every reason why I feel the way I do. Fuck buzzwords about confirmation bias. Confirmation bias implies bias. It implies that I hold conviction. It implies that I feel like I couldn't possibly be wrong, yet that's the furthest possible thing from the truth. Confirmation bias is warping the facts to fit the conclusion.

But I'm not doing that. I'm giving you the facts I've research, and asked you to give me a conclusion off of them, indicating exactly why I came to my conclusion off of those facts. When you question those facts' validity, I point out why I think those facts hold. This isn't confirmation bias. This isn't tunneling. This is having a read and explaining it. And when questioned on the read, elaborating. And when questioned on the reasoning, explaining. All the while, waiting NOT for an argument about whether these things are true or false. Waiting for an argument about what these things mean.

Mind you: "they mean nothing" is a valid point of view. But when you raise that argument, I will explain why I feel they mean something...
...And then you don't go to respond and explain why you feel they mean nothing. Instead you just write it off as confirmation bias.

I can't engage in a conversation when YOU are the one shutting it down.
I've asked, time and time again. For one fucking simple thing. One damn thing! One simple request! To be shown that I am wrong.
To be shown my points aren't valid.
To be shown my reads are wrong.
To be shown that my scumhunting has pursued the wrong path.
I've asked to be shown why grapes is scum.
I've asked to be shown why RR is town.

You haven't given me that.
Instead YOU are writing my read off as being something it isn't. YOU are the one assuming that I am a lost cause. YOU are the one who keeps on going, "lolmastina" (well, no, actually, you go 'lolmastin' and consistently misgender me when it's right in my fucking profile that I'm a she), and refusing to engage me.

I am, consistently. Engaging you. Consistently. I am talking to you. Consistently. I am pointing out why I disagree with your reasoning. Consistently, when you ask a question, I provide an answer. Consistently, when you ask for something, I have provided it. ("Show me why Fuzzy is town aside from role speculation", being just one instance.) Consistently, when you give a challenge, I either answer it in detail, or explain why I choose not to answer it, in detail. Because I am engaging you. I am listening to you. I see your points, and talk to you about why I don't understand them. Or why I don't agree with them. When you make an argument that doesn't resonate with me, I not only explain why it doesn't resonate with me, but ALSO tell you exactly what kind of argument I AM looking for having, and ask you to reframe your reasoning within that new argument. (Namely, fuck theoretical gamebreaking and talk to me in terms of play.)

That is literally ALL I have been doing this whole fucking phase. Engaging you. And asking for something simple in return: to be engaged.
And yet you refuse to do so.

The point of Mafia is not to see if Mastin is wrong or not. It’s to win the game.

Exactly. Which is why I am advocating for lynching Reasonably Rational. That wins the game. If we assume you have told the truth about your wincon (which I am), I do mean it. 97% chance, RR is just solo scum here. So lynching them ends the fucking game. It wins the town, and the gems, the game, right here, right now, today rather than some future day. Rather than tomorrow. Or in mylo/lylo. Or during the night. The point of mafia is to win as fast as possible.

And the way to win as fast as possible is by fucking lynching Reasonably Rational.

[Varsoon]

@Varsoon: when Skybird was removed from the game by a trap for clods, was she still considered in an alliance? In addition, did her protection also protect her from events?

Players removed from the game are not considered to be a part of any alliance.
Skybird's protection only specifies 'abilities'--Events, notably, bypass this protection.

[grapes]

By the way, how's this sound for a plan?

Today we lynch one of Fuzzy/RR.
You bubble the other.

Tomorrow, we have either 6p mylo, or 5p lylo depending on the scum killing or not killing.
I think that me allying with grapes is best no matter what (and there is the whole, I might not have a choice, thing, but if I did...), though if you wanted me to not do so, then if RR is lynched and the game continued, I would honor your request.
But! Assuming that I did ally with grapes, there are two outcomes:
-I was nightkilled: lynch grapes tomorrow.
If grapes is town... then Shiro must be town, and you lynch Almost50.
If grapes was scum... then you make a judgment call between Almost50 and Shiro. Personally given that choice,

I'd lynch Shiro in a heartbeat, since the only thing clearing Shiro right now is that Shiro can't be solo-scum.

You realize the bolded makes no sense when if it's just shiro and almost left alive then shiro is confirmed town anyway if the game's not over.
Your townread on almost extends to confirmation-bias levels in outer fucking space.

Why is the conversation for you always RR or Grapes. And not RR or Almost. When your reasons for townreading me are vastly more compelling that your reasons for townreading almost?

[mastin2]

Thefuzzylogic99 (2):

randomidget, MagnaofIllusion

unvote

Vote Fuzzy

I would like to point out: ANY two-man scumteam could have hammered Fuzzy in this timeframe.

Literally ANY scumteam. (Well, aside from ones including Fuzzy.)
Almost50-Shiro.
Almost50-grapes.
Almost50-RR.
grapes-Shiro.
grapes-RR.
Shiro-RR.

Shiro was online between Fuzzy's vote and here.
Almost50 was online between Fuzzy's vote and here.
grapes was online between Fuzzy's vote and here.
Reasonably Rational was online between Fuzzy's vote and here.

What does this tell us?

Either a two-man scumteam deliberately chose not to lynch Fuzzy when given the chance...
...OR, Fuzzy is scum (with or without a scumbuddy)...
...OR, we don't fucking have a two-man scumteam.

One guess as to which I feel makes the most sense.

Also, question I'd like to ask:

Varsoon: (In general if nothing else,) When a scum player dies in your games, do they retain access to the mafia thread?

[grapes]

Like I was gonna continue with reading through almost50 posts. But of all the good points I brought up in the last wall this one really bears repeating.

Almost50 had a tiered readslist. Foxbird and Skybird were in the same tier.
He dodges questions pertaining to his read on both of them.
Later once skybird was confirmed as connie he reveals that for being his reason for townreading her.

But Foxbird was the same level of town. And Almost was -literally- only townreading sky off of role.
What reason could he possibly have to townread them both equally as strong, considering Foxbird had done essentially nothing?

Simple answer here is contrived reads.

Vote for Almost50.

[grapes]

Please.

[grapes]

Actually new game:

Everyone's next post needs to be either this;

Code: Select all

[v]Almost50[/v]

Or;

Explaining how 12137 isn't a smoking gun.

Let's play.
I've got about an hour.

[mastin2]

I think grapes stands a better than likely chance of being Leftover Scum joining Lapis.

Then show me why.

I've shown you why, on every level, I feel that to not be the case.
By grapes's play.
By the gamestate.
By mechanics.
By setup balance.
Literally every fucking way, I've demonstrated why I feel grapes doesn't make sense as leftovers joining with scum.

You've not once demonstrated why you think grapes does fit.
This has been a consistent trend in our arguments. I raise about ten points. You address maybe three of them. I respond to your addressing, and then I ask for counterpoints showing the opposite.
...I receive silence.

If you want me to work with you, all it takes is actually engaging me.
This?

This aint engaging me.

You can’t prove people are Town via anything short of IC status confirmed by the mod and asking for that as evidence is stupid.

I didn't ask for proof! I didn't ask for some locked, definitive, absolute evidence!

I asked to be SHOWN.
Just fucking shown!

Is it that fucking hard to just fucking show me something?

If so, maybe that says something about what it is you're trying to show!

Because I'm not asking for proof. I'm asking for just being shown. And you're stubbornly refusing to do even that.

Now the fact that he has suddenly “come alive” after it is clear that he’s realistically a lynch candidate and only got saved by your Alliance ability fits very well with scum (in this case Leftover Joiner variety) who got an early Town read and has been cruising along on that just looking for endgame.

Except grapes didn't come alive just today. grapes started coming alive after the kraska lynch. kraska was a consistent scumread of grapes. She flipped town. Instantly, something grapes had been assuming for many day phases to be true was proven to be not true. And instantly after that, there was a change in tune from grapes. Compare the third page of grapes's iso pre-kraska and post-kraska. The post-kraska starts at 10881. Instantly, we go from basically a one-track mind (lynch kraska) to engaging everyone and talking about everything. grapes went from sitting back to actively talking.

There was no pressure on grapes at the time. The pressure on grapes didn't start until, what, yesterday? Even yesterday it wasn't a large focus; the only two really pushing grapes were Almost50 and Reasonably Rational. And in the case of RR, they adamantly denied that they were pushing grapes. (Well at the least, denied that grapes was someone they were advocating being vigged, which I can give them. But they definitely were pushing grapes.)

Name one other person on D7 who was pushing grapes.
That'd be 3/5 votes for a lynch so much as today, yet alone two days ago when the lynch majority was higher.
Just one.
You get the point. grapes was under no pressure D7. Yet grapes went around and increased his activity anyway. Why? Because grapes randomly thought, "might as well regain some lost towncred"? Because grapes feared nonexistent pressure? Or, how about--radical idea here, I know--grapes just had his major scumread flip town and started to reevaluate off of it?

Gee I wonder.

Grapes starts the day with a farside vote at 6628 after saying that both DGB and farside are good votes in 6613. In that reads post he also puts Shadow as a secondary scum read with Kraska and RR. 6792 again shows soft suspicion of Shadow (asking his favorite kind of rope). And then we get a soft “Skybird might be scum” at 6963.

Are you trying to prove grapes is town?

Because, um.
Yeah.
That...is pretty much what you're doing with those points.
You're asking me to believe that grapes, freshly joining the scumteam, valued the life of a traitor, and proceeded to soft-bus basically the rest of the scumteam. After having already hard-pushed SirCakez on Day One.

Your whole idea of grapes coasting on the towncred from day one falls apart based on that alone. If grapes truly were coasting on the D1 towncred, then the soft-bussing becomes absolutely unnecessary and actually hinders grapes.

You're not making sense here at all with your argument. It's contradictory at a fundamental basis.

Grapes is acting contrary to his stated reads (moving from a dominant wagon on one of his top scum reads and ignoring his other top scum read that was the next most viable wagon) and simply joining a vanity wagon on Town.

You're asking me to buy that grapes didn't think kraska was as scum as DGB?
Sorry, no.

kraska had been one of grapes's scumreads since Day One. That scumread never went away. Grapes voted kraska basically every single day phase. Almost without exception. And I do mean almost every day phase. You know WHY grapes voted kraska almost every day phase? Which is simpler to you: grapes as leftovers-turned-scum decided to pursue a vanity vote for the whole game while soft-bussing his entire scumteam...
...OR, get this. grapes as town had kraska as a larger scumread than the scum?

The latter is far easier for me to digest. Because I absolutely don't see grapes's attempts at lynching kraska being vanity, either. Grapes was pushing kraska hard at many points in the game. Literally every day phase, I can point to places where grapes pushes for a kraska lynch. That's not grapes wasting for the whole game. That's grapes trying to get a lynch the whole game. And was a kraska lynch even worth it? Not really, no.

Farside22 (8): Titus, SnarkySnowman, MagnaofIllusion, TheWayItEnds, DrippingGoofball, Skybird, Yume, Xkfyu
DrippingGoofball (6): Shiro, Thefuzzylogic99, Not Chara, McMenno, Creature, Farside22
Kraskaesque (3): mastin2, grapes, Shadow_Step

Three flipped scum fueling Farside and another scum on kraska with grapes.

And who's grapes's scumbuddy, MoI?
Shiro? On the DGB wagon. Fuzzy? On the DGB wagon. Almost50? Not on those wagons. RR? Not on those wagons.
If you think grapes is scum with a scumbuddy, either you posit that the scumbuddy was voting DGB in a bus, or you posit that the scum is...Almost50 or Reasonably Rational.
In which case...you lynch RR.

First mention at all of DGB after the initial “Hey, they are a great vote” is 8319 basically downplaying interaction reading since DGB is a traitor.

...So?
I took the exact fucking same stance.
Like, you'd have better luck arguing that grapes was mirroring my stances as scum deliberately to hide.
Because I said the exact same things.
DGB is a traitor, interactions likely useless. DGB is a good lynch, but I'd prefer to lynch elsewhere. Fuck, as you yourself acknowledge, I went after kraska. You're painting these things as only being indicative of scum, when I know for a fact, having fucking DONE them IN THIS GAME at the EXACT TIME YOU ARE ACCUSING GRAPES that there was in fact a very town reason to have taken that stance: I was under the impression that the scum didn't know DGB was for sure a traitor (even though there was no reason to believe otherwise). I was under the impression that if DGB was in fact a traitor she didn't know her scumteam. (Because she wouldn't have outed herself to KC otherwise.) In other words, DGB interactions would be...useless. grapes taking this stance is nothing condemning in the least.

Then at 8490 grapes hops on the DGB wagon with narry a comment why.

You're missing something important which happened:
Yume was killed, and votes were reset.

That SnarkySnowman wagon?
Vanished.
The DGB wagon?

Didn't.

So grapes wasn't switching wagons.
grapes was casting an initial vote on a wagon.

Timeline is important. And it was literally his second post (the first being an acknowledgment of the event) after this had happened.
So it's a matter of luck of the draw in timing, really. Had grapes been online earlier, the vote would have been cast earlier. As a result, grapes's positioning would have been earlier.

Opens with a farside vote at 9138.

Yes, because grapes was specifically asked to vote farside by Reasonably Rational. That's an important detail you're forgetting. The vote grapes was casting? It wasn't valid. It was a proof of his inability to vote. You remember that whole fucking thing about that being the day of not being able to vote; you said it yourself. Grapes's

actual

first vote that day phase?

9975, a vote for TheWayItEnds.
No seriously go check the fucking votecounts if you don't believe me. The 9138 vote for farside didn't count because grapes had no alliance. Grapes did not cast a vote after that until 9975, which was on TWIE.

So TWIE is the leading wagon but grapes isn’t voting one of his top suspects at this stage.

Yeah, but grapes wasn't voting

anyone

at that stage. Not even his favorite wagon, kraska.

TWIE gets lynched this day and grapes ends up on the kraska vanity wagon at Vote Count 5.06.

So I ask you this:
TWIE was the given lynch for the day.
This is a fact.
grapes was voting TWIE.
grapes hopped OFF of TWIE, the given lynch.
grapes didn't go to a viable counterwagon. grapes went to a vanity wagon.

What the fuck do you see there that is scum-motivated?
Because I'll tell you what grapes as scum would do: not unvote TWIE. Stay on the wagon for the towncred it'd offer. TWIE was getting lynched. That wagon didn't need grapes to go through. So grapes being on the wagon makes grapes as scum look good. grapes hopping off the wagon does nothing but make grapes look bad--the polar opposite of cruising, as you are presenting the grapes narrative as being.

Sure, scumhunting 101 tells you "oh if someone hops off the wagon of scum it must be a scumbuddy trying to save the scum!".
But you're not a fucking amateur.
You should know better than to buy into that bullshit.

grapes hopping off the lynch of TWIE has no scum motive: TWIE was an inevitable lynch. Staying on the lynch gave town credit. Hopping off would draw attention to grapes once TWIE flipped scum.
grapes hopping off the lynch of TWIE has town motive: grapes, not knowing who the scum are, wouldn't know TWIE was for sure scum.

Your narrative just simply doesn't fit the facts.

And the rest of your case is basically gibberish. Was there a point to it? Because all I saw was words describing grapes's action, where grapes renewed the Shadow_step suspicion. And cast a vote on Shadow_step, when before grapes was...not voting. That, again, is an important distinction to make: huge fucking difference between voting and switching, and not voting and casting an initial vote. And for someone so fond of VCA, you seem to discard the fact that Shadow_step? Contrary to your claims, not a safe wagon.

Creature (LYNCH!):

Shiro, Almost50, Shadow_Step, mastin2, Reasonably Rational, MagnaofIllusion

Shadow_Step (4):

Farside22, Creature, Thefuzzylogic99,

grapes

Not Voting (1):

randomidget

With 11 Alive, it takes 6 to Lynch.

Grapes's vote?
Was the FOURTH of SIX NEEDED.
grapes put Shadow_step at L-2.
Lynch, minus two votes.

That's not a safe vote.
No matter how you fucking slice it. Especially if, say, randomidget cast an L-1 vote on Shadow_step, and/or you did.

Your narrative just doesn't hold up.

...But having said that.
Thank you for at least giving me this much.

I do expect a response to all of this though. You've given your reasons. I'm giving why I don't feel those reasons are valid. You have only yourself to blame if you don't give me more.

[mastin2]

Also, unfortunately, I've spent the last two hours (no seriously, TWO HOURS) in this game, and it's 6. I was supposed to start getting ready to leave 15 minutes ago, so I'm not getting caught up on the rest of the thread right now, sorry. You'll have to wait until I get back.

[Varsoon]

Varsoon: (In general if nothing else,) When a scum player dies in your games, do they retain access to the mafia thread?

In general, that is the case.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

I am total okay with dying/getting bubbled this episode///////////////////


Random prob is town and I am just being paranoid...however that's no reason to give a free pass and ,,,I don't know why everyone is okay with this. Say what you will about MOI atleast he trying to scum hunt and help. I am not even talking about the number of post
but whatever I will be put out of my misery soon enough.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

There is so many things that just doesn't make sense this game,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Mastin
I think you being a bit egotistical. There are several players trying hard to figure this game out,

Vote RR

have stupidly been following town why stop now. Maybe I get lucky and end up following a townie that's right

Shadow tried to manipulate me.......that's why he tried to buddy me so he could control my vig or atleast try..Maybe RR succeeded where S_S failed.
Anyways I have nothing to lose at this point bc I am going to die or get bubbled and the game will go on.

Should be fun..hopefully I will see yall after a town win bc I do not see me being unbubled.....to be fair I am still uncertain.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

if Reason//grapes/ almost is scum than town has this game won........I really hope that it is that easy and the last scum is cornered like a rat

[Reasonably Rational]

We're down to 18 hours.

Grapes, A50 is not an option. Even if you convince me, I don't believe it's possible for you to get three more votes on him.
Grapes isn't an option today.
Obviously it's between TFL and myself.

Grapes, A50, Shiro, need you guys to make a choice one way or the other.

VOTE: TFL

-Cerb

[Almost50]

If Sky was the one "set to endgame" there's no way in hell where the "Masters of Deceit and Tactical Maneuvers" would have let her go there even if they thought it was only a 10% chance she'd get lynched.

You say this, and I fail to understand why. Skybird, when allied with Xkfyu, would be completely immune to all actions.

ALL ACTIONS. (Not just night actions. ALL. actions. Including kills.)
Now.

When the information was relayed...did you have any reason to believe Xkfyu's kill could trump a bulletproof? (Which is what that was: effectively a super fucking bulletproof.)

Because if Skybird thought SHE WAS A FUCKING BULLETPROOF, and that Xkfyu's kill power COULD NOT KILL HER...then why the fuck wouldn't Skybird be sent in place of Shadow_step? Her being sent would save her scumbuddy. The event used to kill her would fail. More than that it was a bulletproof ascetic of sorts. She couldn't die. She couldn't be targeted. Or so she thought. So how the fuck doesn't that fit with a scum mastermind? It's right in their alley!

Now, they can make a miscalculation! Assume that Skybird's immunity trumps Xkfyu's kill, and be shocked (and horrified) when it turns out, whoops! Nope it didn't. But tell me. Did you, or did you not, know that Xkfyu's kill could bypass kill immunity?
If you did not, any argument for RR not being scum instantly goes out the window.

The following is the relevant part of Xk's "detailed confession" to me:

Event action: +2 Stress minimum. Exposition phase only. I may end my alliance with all players I'm allied with, and they will be publicly removed from the game for an entire episode (something like this appears to have happened to FB). Upon doing so, I can privately decide to kill one of the removed players. This is essentially a DayVig that I can only use against someone who I'm aligned with, and only at +2 Stress or higher.

You judge for yourself if that should bypass BP.

As for me, YES.. I believed ANYONE who was allied with Xk COULD end up bubbled AND could be executed.

[TheFuzzylogic99]

thought before I die..bc at this point I feel like my lynch is unavoidable

I really really hope RR is scum but I honestly fear that the town is getting played like a violin. I hope this is just my paranoia .

[Almost50]

Tell me, Almost50. What EXACTLY did you tell RR?

here's what I told RR about it, word-for-word, letter-for-letter:

He has TWO events, both requiring a minimum or +2 stress. The exposition event: he may end allinces with all of his allies, and they will all be removed from the game for an entire episode. He suspected that to have happened to FB before FB reappeared in the game. Xk can also decide to kill one of the removed players at his discretion, and privately. So; that is a DayVig that only works on his allies and only at +2 stress or higher.