STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

[Almost50]

but the other Crystal Gems, especially MoI and

Skybird

deserve the win.

WHO??

[Almost50]

Your plan looks solid. Since any 2-man scum team MUST contain either Grapes or Shiro, you have the order correct. If lynching Shiro doesn't end the game, it clears grapes so releasing him adds one to the conftown which precludes any scum win, unless they can do extra kills.

Tell me again, how lynching Shiro with the game not ending eliminates the possible scum team of your slot with grapes!

In fact, how does it even clear ME from being scum with grapes??

[Almost50]

I'm sorry but actually there is a flaw in the plan. A town!Shiro does NOT clear Grapes fully. It means that if there are two scum it would be Grapes plus one of [Us, A50]. A scum!Shiro flip clears Grapes and if the game continues obviously clears Grapes.

Now that's more like it! So, it's a bad plan because it relies on Shiro flipping Scum (in which case we win), but if he is Town then we have FOUR possibilities:

RR alone.
Almost50 alone.
RR+grapes.
Almost50+grapes.

Which means THREE players are not confirmed while we go into the night, so random will have absolutely no way of deciding whom to bubble because he doesn't even know if we have one or two scumsters alive.

Like, if he bubbles me and it turns out to be you+grapes you win w/o even killing anyone.

If he bubbles you and it's me and grapes .. same thing.

If he bubble grapes again (why release him in the first place if that's an option) he is leaving the scumster in you/me loose, and whomever it is between us two will only shoot in conf!Town and try to wiggle their way out of tomorrow's lynch.

With such uncertainty I don't see how this could be even remotely a solid plan or be considered an option to start with.

Now grapes released with the intention of getting him to use his event EVEN if he does use it on random/Mastina is looking like a bad move too, bc it would lead to only 3 players going into the night (unless you ARE scum in which case we win). If you're TOWN then the living scum in me/Shiro will just shoot the other and win the game.

So, if grapes is released and does that stunt we NO LYNCH. He is confirmed as Scum, but we can guarantee the game doesn't end at night (except if they DO have an extra kill as you proposed).

Now if grapes can returns to the game WITH whomever he "bubbles" it'd be LyLo still, and -even worse- it could be an instant Scum Win if the stress is still at Tragic Destiny (because we can't lynch scum in LyLo @ Tragic Destiny).

If he has the ability to finish them off while bubbled (an ability similar to that of Xk) then it's game over because that's exactly what he will do, so we will not even see the day.

So, thank you for pointing that out, and I will vote NO to releasing grapes to begin with.

I repeat: DO NOT RELEASE GRAPES. In fact, just kill him and let him flip ASAP. If he flips TOWN it clears Shiro. If he flips SCUM it guarantees the game doesn't end tonight.

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm sorry but actually there is a flaw in the plan. A town!Shiro does NOT clear Grapes fully. It means that if there are two scum it would be Grapes plus one of [Us, A50]. A scum!Shiro flip clears Grapes and if the game continues obviously clears Grapes.

Now that's more like it! So, it's a bad plan because it relies on Shiro flipping Scum (in which case we win), but if he is Town then we have FOUR possibilities:

RR alone.
Almost50 alone.
RR+grapes.
Almost50+grapes.

Which means THREE players are not confirmed while we go into the night, so random will have absolutely no way of deciding whom to bubble because he doesn't even know if we have one or two scumsters alive.

Like, if he bubbles me and it turns out to be you+grapes you win w/o even killing anyone.

If he bubbles you and it's me and grapes .. same thing.

If he bubble grapes again (why release him in the first place if that's an option) he is leaving the scumster in you/me loose, and whomever it is between us two will only shoot in conf!Town and try to wiggle their way out of tomorrow's lynch.

With such uncertainty I don't see how this could be even remotely a solid plan or be considered an option to start with.

Now grapes released with the intention of getting him to use his event EVEN if he does use it on random/Mastina is looking like a bad move too, bc it would lead to only 3 players going into the night (unless you ARE scum in which case we win). If you're TOWN then the living scum in me/Shiro will just shoot the other and win the game.

So, if grapes is released and does that stunt we NO LYNCH. He is confirmed as Scum, but we can guarantee the game doesn't end at night (except if they DO have an extra kill as you proposed).

Now if grapes can returns to the game WITH whomever he "bubbles" it'd be LyLo still, and -even worse- it could be an instant Scum Win if the stress is still at Tragic Destiny (because we can't lynch scum in LyLo @ Tragic Destiny).

If he has the ability to finish them off while bubbled (an ability similar to that of Xk) then it's game over because that's exactly what he will do, so we will not even see the day.

So, thank you for pointing that out, and I will vote NO to releasing grapes to begin with.

I repeat: DO NOT RELEASE GRAPES. In fact, just kill him and let him flip ASAP. If he flips TOWN it clears Shiro. If he flips SCUM it guarantees the game doesn't end tonight.

Terrible post A50. It reeks of scum desperation, has several notable scum tells, and you are literally advocating to abandon a plan with a 100% win probability. You should be lynched for your posts today 100% of the time ... except in this PARTICULAR game, there's a plan already to ensure we win and no matter what you post, we're not going to suddenly pick up an idiot ball and deviate from it.

I've pretty much concluded you have to be scum based upon your posts today, with this one being the proverbial nail in the coffin. You're screaming at Random NOT to execute a plan which eliminates ALL possible scum by tonight at the latest. I guess I'm obligated to say good game. You fooled the crap out of us by giving us info and then having your team run into traps you knew about. We've been defending you for days now.


Back to the game at hand, which still needs finishing off, the

only

cogent point you made in the last few posts was that time is running down, but obviously if Grapes is released and stalls that's an indication of guilt and we just lynch him.

Also, your attempt at scare tactics is noticed. Please go read the stress mechanics. The universal loved modifier at Tragic Destiny is NOT in effect in LYLO, so your attempt to scare us away from a guaranteed win is noted.

TL;DR - A50 is so obviously scum at this point that I'm tempted to just say let's lynch him and expect a happily ever after post.

NOT

gonna do that though. Why not? Because we freaking worked out a literal 100% win probability and there's absolutely no reason to deviate and risk it.

Since it is clear that our plan isn't well understood:

1.) Release Grapes and he exits with one suspect. According to MoI, they won't return until the beginning of the next episode (this timing is critical to why the plan is 100% win probability).
1a.) If Grapes goes rogue, there's a fall back for that. There's absolutely no upside to addressing it unless he goes rogue because there's no sense in giving him any way to anticipate what we'll do. Grapes going rogue is the worst case scenario but it doesn't take away the win

unless

scum has extra kills, which is a problem in ALL cases, and CANNOT be accounted for. No sense in spending worry on something we can't do fuck all about.

2.) There will be 2 suspects left. Lynch one of them.
2a.) If the game doesn't end with the win, we know that the remaining suspect is scum. Since any two man scum team must contain Grapes and/or Shiro, we would know for sure who is scum at that point.

3.) Random bubbles the last suspect. This presumably resolves before a scum kill because kills resolve last. At that instant, all possible suspects are considered dead for the purposes of win conditions, and therefore Town win condition triggers and gem win condition triggers.

~Drixx

[Almost50]

OK, let's go over your proposition one more time:

ASSUMING grapes is SCUM (which I am convinced is the case) and he goes rogue and kidnaps Mastina (say). We are left with you, me, Shiro and random in the game for the rest of the day (and all through the night). random is still the ONLY confirmed Town between the four of us.

Now let's say you're Town and we lynch you. Now HOW THE HELL IS random going to know which of myself and Shiro to bubble to ensure the win? If he bubbles the WRONG player it's GAME OVER, because we would have entered the night with 2 Town & 1 Scum and the Scumster is FREE to shoot random himself and end the friggin' game already.

Now say we NO LYNCH to avoid that. It does NOT work. Why? Because while we are entering the night as THREE Town and one Scum it is still a hell of a guess for random to make the right bubble. If he misses, the loose Scumster can shoot either random (a guaranteed to shot) or gamble on a shot on the other Townie that wasn't bubbled (only he they will also have to guess which one that is) and if they do they win instantly.

Now let's assume the remaining Scumster does NOT shoot at night (or shoots at the bubbled player which results in a NO KILL). However, grapes is Scum and has an ability similar to that of Xk, meaning he could kill Mastina and return to game alone. GAME OVER (because grapes returning to game makes it 2 vs 2 before the Townie random bubbled is back in game).

If YOU can't see those wholes in that pan and are advocating for MY lynch the I can't help but reverse my read on you as well, because THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL you're BOTH going to miss that. ABSOLUTELY NO WAY!

[Almost50]

In fact:

@random:

KILL grapes NOW. I WILL EAT ROPE WILLINGLY if you do that. I'd DEAD SERIOUS.

[Almost50]

I'll even better my offer right now:

VOTE: Almost50

Just kill grapes and then come vote me, random.

[Almost50]

Now, THINK about it random. Even if I try to backtrack and remove my own vote off myself after you kill grapes, it'd be obvious for all 4 of you who IS scum and you could still lynch me w/o my own vote. I'm your GUARANTEED lynch of the day if only you finished grapes off NOW.

However, I URGE you to lynch RR tomorrow with no hesitation. Their proposition of grapes "possibly" going rogue is actually them TELLING grapes what to do. grapes is BUBBLED and thus CANNOT talk to RR in the Scum PT (I suspect he doesn't even have access to it while being bubbled). RR are worried grapes might be released while they're not online and thus might not know what to do or how to get out of the situation, so they're giving him the instructions under our noses.. right here in the game thread!!

[Reasonably Rational]

Grapes leaving with a conftown has an obvious counter A50. It's only a loss condition if scum can get an extra kill in. Straw man arguments are futile, becuase it's easy enough for everyone to see that I already acknowledge that Grapes going rogue is the worst branch of the plan, but it is NOT as bad as you are saying because you're overlooking one crucial data point.

Apart from that, your responses appear to me to be AtE (with the self-voting and such) and flailing. Given that I'm like 99.9% sure you snowballed us, are scum and for some reason lost your cool today (perhaps you thought you could mislynch us with that vote right at the day start?), it's whatever. On the 0.01% chance that I'm totally misreading your play today, you need to calm down and stop flailing around. We are in an unassailable position to win

UNLESS

we do something foolish. It logically follows that we should remain calm and finish this off.

~Drixx

[Almost50]

@Shiro:

If you were still not fully convinced random was conf!Town, here's your proof:

IF random is scum with grapes = he would NOT have bubbled him in the first place. Not even at the price of confirming this was LyLo/MyLo because lynching grapes and random killing me/you at night leads to RR lynch tomorrow (courtesy of Mastina being still alive) and then random can shoot the other and win it for Scum. EVEN if it was done as a highly sophisticated distancing move, he would have released him by now and grapes would fully agree to take you out of the game and we lynch RR and I die at night and it's a Scum win.

IF random is scum with RR, then he would have finished off grapes already. RR gets lynched, one of us (you or me) dies at night and Mastina will still lynch the other = Scum Win.

If random is Scum with you .. with grapes gone and RR lynched you win instantly.

If random is Scum with me .. same as with you.

If random is lonely Scum he still would have executed gapes already by now, and we still lynch RR and he kills either of us and then he & Mastina will lynch the other.

So, there is NOT A SINGLE SCENARIO of SCUM!random that makes ANY sense with his play today (I'm specifying today bc you obviously had some reservations on his play on former days, and I don't want to argue much about it).

So, random IS CONFIRMED TOWN, and Mastina IS CONFIRMED TOWN. That leaves you, me, RR & grapes.

If grapes is gone and I'm lynched it would be either you or RR (you decide on that one ) but you should NOT be voting random or Mastina come tomorrow.

P.S. I'm addressing you in specific bc IF you're Town then you'd be the only one I'm worried about making the wrong decision. I have no doubt Mastina's going to get it right, and random (after seeing both mine and grapes' flips) will too. I mean, I hope for your sake grapes flips green (can't see it though, but I'll keep the dream alive). If he is, and with me also flipping green it would mean YOU are confirmed as well (the game not ending means there's only one scumster alive and that can't be you because you were bubbled earlier).

If grapes flips red though, and with myself flipping green it'd be between you and RR and you do need to support the RR lynch either way, but if you do have a green PM I can see you stuttering and going back and forth between RR & random, so please do trust me after you see my flip. OK?

[Reasonably Rational]

Grapes leaving with a conftown has an obvious counter A50. It's only a loss condition if scum can get an extra kill in. Straw man arguments are futile, becuase it's easy enough for everyone to see that I already acknowledge that Grapes going rogue is the worst branch of the plan, but it is NOT as bad as you are saying because you're overlooking one crucial data point.

Apart from that, your responses appear to me to be AtE (with the self-voting and such) and flailing. Given that I'm like 99.9% sure you snowballed us, are scum and for some reason lost your cool today (perhaps you thought you could mislynch us with that vote right at the day start?), it's whatever. On the 0.01% chance that I'm totally misreading your play today, you need to calm down and stop flailing around. We are in an unassailable position to win

UNLESS

we do something foolish. It logically follows that we should remain calm and finish this off.

~Drixx

An addendum to this for A50: The idea that we're telling grapes what to do because we can't tell him it in the scum pt is fundamentally flawed. In the scenario you're positing, there would be nothing preventing us from simply leaving him a message in the scum pt, which he could read no matter when he was returned to the game. This does lead to an interesting question: why are you assuming a scum member who has been bubbled isn't able to read the scum pt? I could understand not being allowed to post in them, and it makes some sense, but there's no actual evidence to assume that's the case. The closest thing to this which I have knowledge of is when Shiro was removed and the PT we had with him was closed, however...we could still look at the pt even after it was closed.

-Cerb

[Almost50]

Grapes leaving with a conftown has an obvious counter A50. It's only a loss condition if scum can get an extra kill in.

What "extra" kill?? He's out with "someone". You eat rope, If you're Town only THREE players enter the night phase, one of which IS scum. He needs only ONE kill to get the job done. That's it.

You are already trying to wiggle your way out of the lynch by redirecting it to Shiro after grapes triggers his event and kidnaps conf!Town, but I will still give you the benefit of doubt and "assume" you "might" be Town. I'll even give you a card to play with and let you assume that

I

am scum.

Now, let's do this again: grapes takes Mastina out of the game. You or Shiro get lynched. We go into the night with myself and the one who didn't get lynched along with random, and random is supposed to bubble the one who didn't get lynched in you/Shiro. I win because I will shoot random, OR "we" win (myself and grapes) at the start of the day if he can kill Mastina (AND WE HAVE SEEN A SIMILAR ABILITY ALREADY IN HIS GAME AND BY A LEFTOVER AS WELL) and returns to the game alone. At the start of the day it will be myself and grapes vs random and either you or Shiro AT BEST. Now it could be that I would win the game as Scum already once random bubbles his target in you/Shiro bc -technically according to what you all have been saying- it would be me vs random at tha point and even before my presumed kill resolves.

The solution would be for random to bubble ME instead, but that leaves the door wide open to the EXACT SAME SCENARIO, only with my name and yours/Shiro's switched.

There is NO WAY that "all suspects" will be removed from the game if grape is Scum. ABSOLUTELY NO WAY.

[Reasonably Rational]

@Shiro:

If you were still not fully convinced random was conf!Town, here's your proof:

IF random is scum with grapes = he would NOT have bubbled him in the first place. Not even at the price of confirming this was LyLo/MyLo because lynching grapes and random killing me/you at night leads to RR lynch tomorrow (courtesy of Mastina being still alive) and then random can shoot the other and win it for Scum. EVEN if it was done as a highly sophisticated distancing move, he would have released him by now and grapes would fully agree to take you out of the game and we lynch RR and I die at night and it's a Scum win.

IF random is scum with RR, then he would have finished off grapes already. RR gets lynched, one of us (you or me) dies at night and Mastina will still lynch the other = Scum Win.

If random is Scum with you .. with grapes gone and RR lynched you win instantly.

If random is Scum with me .. same as with you.

If random is lonely Scum he still would have executed gapes already by now, and we still lynch RR and he kills either of us and then he & Mastina will lynch the other.

So, there is NOT A SINGLE SCENARIO of SCUM!random that makes ANY sense with his play today (I'm specifying today bc you obviously had some reservations on his play on former days, and I don't want to argue much about it).

So, random IS CONFIRMED TOWN, and Mastina IS CONFIRMED TOWN. That leaves you, me, RR & grapes.

If grapes is gone and I'm lynched it would be either you or RR (you decide on that one ) but you should NOT be voting random or Mastina come tomorrow.

P.S. I'm addressing you in specific bc IF you're Town then you'd be the only one I'm worried about making the wrong decision. I have no doubt Mastina's going to get it right, and random (after seeing both mine and grapes' flips) will too. I mean, I hope for your sake grapes flips green (can't see it though, but I'll keep the dream alive). If he is, and with me also flipping green it would mean YOU are confirmed as well (the game not ending means there's only one scumster alive and that can't be you because you were bubbled earlier).

If grapes flips red though, and with myself flipping green it'd be between you and RR and you do need to support the RR lynch either way, but if you do have a green PM I can see you stuttering and going back and forth between RR & random, so please do trust me after you see my flip. OK?

This is accurate enough. We're essentially at a stage in the game where our only hope of victory is taking the benevolent third party nature of the gems for granted. We lose, simply put, if they are malevolent.

-Cerb

pedit: A50, Drixx wasn't saying that the win was still 100% if grapes was scum and removed a conftown. He was saying that it was only an autoloss IF they have an extra kill. If they don't have an extra kill, it's counterable.

[Reasonably Rational]

I believe I'm actually the first person who brought up the fact that scum!grapes can go rogue and will obviously not remove his partner OR a potential mislynch from the playing field. You know me. It should be quite clear to you that I've ran through those scenarios and know EXACTLY how we avoid an autoloss in that situation. This means there is no additional risk going that route over others, and there is the additional benefit of a town!grapes resulting in a guaranteed victory.

-Cerb

[Almost50]

@Cerb:

That's bc it was CLOSED. You can look at any CLOSED thread, bc -obviously- there can't be anything NEW added to it, whereas you could still add content to your PT with grapes which means he could be "tutored" to what he could/should say while being bubbled, which means nothing any bubbled player could have any credibility until they are flipped.

P-edit:

And I'm proposing an even better scenario that ensures both myself and grapes are removed from the game permanently right now, so there should be no doubt about mine of his alignment anymore.

[Reasonably Rational]

I believe I'm actually the first person who brought up the fact that scum!grapes can go rogue and will obviously not remove his partner OR a potential mislynch from the playing field. You know me. It should be quite clear to you that I've ran through those scenarios and know EXACTLY how we avoid an autoloss in that situation. This means there is no additional risk going that route over others, and there is the additional benefit of a town!grapes resulting in a guaranteed victory.

-Cerb

Please run through these scenarios yourself A50, and don't just blurt out the lines scum can take. i already fucked up by even suggesting the idea in the game thread out of my sheer frustration at Mastin for her stubbornness, so let's not exacerbate my mistake.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Cerb:

That's bc it was CLOSED. You can look at any CLOSED thread, bc -obviously- there can't be anything NEW added to it, whereas you could still add content to your PT with grapes which means he could be "tutored" to what he could/should say while being bubbled, which means nothing any bubbled player could have any credibility until they are flipped.

P-edit:

And I'm proposing an even better scenario that ensures both myself and grapes are removed from the game permanently right now, so there should be no doubt about mine of his alignment anymore.

Sure, your scenario is good, however...I don't believe it's possible. Maybe it is, but it seems improbable that the gems have a supervig(because that's what the bubbling essentially is, if it allows them to kill the bubbled individual) which, at the bare minimum, started off with 2 shots and regained one on season finales, and which they would have been able to use at least 3 times before all the gems were removed, in the best case scenario.

If he can do it, it should be done. I simply don't believe it can be done.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Let me rephrase this:

It is improbable that a benevolent gem faction, which is the universe WE MUST live in(otherwise our only course of action is to lynch a scumspect and hope random gets shot tonight and we see tomorrow to lynch another scumspect and win), has said supervig.

It would make sense for a malevolent gem faction, and would explain a lot of stuff, but the issues regarding balance and scum v town numbers that mastin mentioned earlier still weigh against the gems being malevolent...so as I said, we have benevolent gems, and therefore they almost certainly can't do as you want them to.
-Cerb

[Almost50]

@Cerb:

I do know you and I would have sheeped you blindly if I was 100% sure you're Town at this point.

The fact the game didn't end as of yet means we either have a scum team of Shiro + grapes (thus the game not ending when either of them was bubbled), or either or them with you (self explanatory) OR JUST YOU (again, self explanatory).

Also, I'm -once again- speaking from where I stand bc I know only I have access to my own PM at this time, so pardon me for dismissing any case of me being scum, bu you are welcome to do the math on that if you like.

I won't risk a situation where there are 2 scum alive come the night phase, so I'm offering my own in exchange of another of them suspects (and one whom I strongly believe to be scum). This leaves you and Shiro, and ONLY you and Shiro, and it has just ONE flaw: The case of you being Scum WITH Shiro.

Now that I very much doubt to be the case. Maybe I'm blind but I just can't see it, so I'm playing it extra safe and it will be up to you to lynch Shiro next if you are Town.

P-edit:

Then the alternative is to keep grapes bubbled and lynch ME. How does that sound then?

[Reasonably Rational]

@Cerb:

That's bc it was CLOSED. You can look at any CLOSED thread, bc -obviously- there can't be anything NEW added to it, whereas you could still add content to your PT with grapes which means he could be "tutored" to what he could/should say while being bubbled, which means nothing any bubbled player could have any credibility until they are flipped.

P-edit:

And I'm proposing an even better scenario that ensures both myself and grapes are removed from the game permanently right now, so there should be no doubt about mine of his alignment anymore.

...

Also...why would any bubbled player have any credibility until they flipped? Just because someone isn't being coached doesn't mean they can't just lie on their own? I mean, this isn't the point.

My point is that there is no mechanical reason to make the assumption you're making, and until there IS mechanical reason to make that assumption, we should assume that if grapes is scum, he can read the scum PT. It's simply safer that way...plus, again, the entire idea that his partner couldn't just leave directions in the pt for when he returns is myopic.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Cerb:

I do know you and I would have sheeped you blindly if I was 100% sure you're Town at this point.

The fact the game didn't end as of yet means we either have a scum team of Shiro + grapes (thus the game not ending when either of them was bubbled), or either or them with you (self explanatory) OR JUST YOU (again, self explanatory).

Also, I'm -once again- speaking from where I stand bc I know only I have access to my own PM at this time, so pardon me for dismissing any case of me being scum, bu you are welcome to do the math on that if you like.

I won't risk a situation where there are 2 scum alive come the night phase, so I'm offering my own in exchange of another of them suspects (and one whom I strongly believe to be scum). This leaves you and Shiro, and ONLY you and Shiro, and it has just ONE flaw: The case of you being Scum WITH Shiro.

Now that I very much doubt to be the case. Maybe I'm blind but I just can't see it, so I'm playing it extra safe and it will be up to you to lynch Shiro next if you are Town.

P-edit:

Then the alternative is to keep grapes bubbled and lynch ME. How does that sound then?

You missed one thing. Nobody currently "in game" can be scum with anyone else currently "in game" otherwise we would be guaranteed to be in MYLO and the universal loved modifier of tragic destiny would not be in effect.

I understand your position. I assure you, there is absolutely no chance that a rogue grapes will result in us going to night in a situation that will result in the scum team achieving their win condition, unless the scum team has additional kills(which is, as Drixx said, a universal flaw that we can't account for).It is, as a I said, better to NOT walk through this in case it does happen, because grapes could still make a mistake regarding his actions, and thus we shouldn't inform him anymore than we need to.

-Cerb

[Almost50]

You missed one thing. Nobody currently "in game" can be scum with anyone else currently "in game" otherwise we would be guaranteed to be in MYLO and the universal loved modifier of tragic destiny would not be in effect.

Hmm.. so.. if the universal loved modifier won't work in MyLo then we can tell grapes' alignment the minute he gets released (if the modifier is still on then grapes is Town AND there's only one scumster left alive. I it's gone the grapes is confirmed Scum rgardless of his next move). Am I correct in this??

[Almost50]

If that was true, then we release grapes and if he is Town that's great and he an take someone out safely and we NO LYNCH and random does NOT bubble anyone either to make sure we are no less than 4 at night, thus no less than 3 at the start of the day and then grapes returning as conf!Town with another conf!town (because we had agreed that there's only one scum left).

If he is Scum we have no control on whom he takes out, but we also know he will take out someone conf!town and our bet move would be sill a No LYNCH (but this time it is still a risky move because if grapes can kill his subject and return to game alone they win). We presumably go into the night as 4 and someone gets NK'd thus we return as 2 vs 1 pending the grapes return to game. If he does return WITH his subject they'd still remain conf!Town and we lynch grapes and still play the guessing game on the next day.

The alternative to the above proposition (with grapes still being Scum) is we attempt to lynch his partner and end the game on spot. If we succeed the Town wins, but if we mislynch we lose instantly. Well, not instantly but it will be random's call and he MUST bubble and CORRECTLY to bring the win home.

[Reasonably Rational]

You missed one thing. Nobody currently "in game" can be scum with anyone else currently "in game" otherwise we would be guaranteed to be in MYLO and the universal loved modifier of tragic destiny would not be in effect.

Hmm.. so.. if the universal loved modifier won't work in MyLo then we can tell grapes' alignment the minute he gets released (if the modifier is still on then grapes is Town AND there's only one scumster left alive. I it's gone the grapes is confirmed Scum rgardless of his next move). Am I correct in this??

I mean to say LYLO, not MYLO. MYLO is a lot more fluid when we KNOW we have access to a functional kill town can use tonight, I don't believe Varsoon could even tell us when "standard" MYLO was in effect...sorta makes me wonder about why Mastin's power functions in MYLO actually, lol.

Anyways, the point is that there can't be TWO scum among the five of us. There is at most 1. IF these 5 specific slots are alive, a mislynch can not immediately result in a loss, because if it could, then Tragic Destiny would not be in effect.

-Cerb

[Almost50]

We now agree that a mislynch cannot "immediately" result in a loss, but it could still result in a loss anyway.

IF grapes is Town, even if he does take out a Town player thus leaving 4 of us and then we mislynch and we enter the night as 2 vs 1. Scum successfully kill = Town Loss, but that could be dealt with by random's bubble.

If he is Scum though, and he takes out Town (and he WILL in this case) then we still lose if he can kill his subject, and it seems to me that THAT is the pivotal point of argument between you and me right now. Whether or not Scum!Grapes can kill his bubbled target. If he can't; we win. If he can; we lose. Plain and simple.