STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER

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Varsoon
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Post Post #12225  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:55 pm

"I've modified them to accommodate less...
...lethal training."
Pearl

"The sharpest weapon is the Mind."
Holo-Pearl, Steven vs Amethyst


VOTECOUNT 10.01

Reasonably Rational (1): Almost50

Not Voting (4): Reasonably Rational, mastin2, randomidget, Shiro

With 5 Alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.
Deadline
: (expired on 2017-01-24 00:00:00)

The Current Stress is +4, TRAGIC DESTINY:
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All players require one extra vote to lynch (except in LYLO) and all protective actions always succeed.

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Post Post #12226  (ISO)  » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:59 pm

.. between random's secret plan and Mastina's declared plan I have nothing to say or do but wait!
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Post Post #12227  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:06 am

In post 12222, Reasonably Rational wrote:Anybody out there?

Random: I'm pretty sure the course of today will be entirely determined by what you/MoI/Grapes have to say about things, so if you could make time sooner rather than later so we can discuss whatever you guys had in mind, that would be great.

-Cerb

on it now.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12228  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:18 am

ok. these are MoI's thoughts.
1. he expected to die last night.
2.this could put us in 5 player LyLo, but 2 man scum team is unlikely
3.lynch RR/Shiro
4. up to me whether to bubble there and risk auto loss to almost/mastin scum (which basically means almost scum), but we win if the scum is in the original two.
5. almost has played a superb scum game if hes WIFOMed his ally choices in regards to season finales

this is all paraphrased from MoI's post.

my thoughts on this: if we follow MoI's plan exactly we should lynch Shiro then bubble RR to cover ourselves from the Shiro/Grapes team. if we do this we win after the lynch if the two man team is correct, win tonight if RR is scum and lose if almost is scum. a better way of doing this may be to not bubble tonight and wait on the next day as we get more discussion, grapes becomes a conf town so we still have the same number and there would be an extra lynch.
HOWEVER I am not convinced that Almost is town. this should be what we try and figure out today. I think Shiro should be the lynch regardless, so the question is whether or not almost or rr is best candidate for solo scum. i don't think two man team is that likely, but it makes sense to cover our bases and use the grapes bubble to its full capacity.
thoughts everyone?
also if i do bubble tonight i wont be announcing it to WIFOM scum.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12229  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:32 pm

I think there's a guaranteed path to a town victory if we take part of Mastin's plan and part of randoms. I need to talk to Cerb and walk him through it and make sure there's no failure points. I also need to know something from you random: Can you release Grapes back into the game today so he can do his claimed event?

Don't just do it if you can. I just want to know if you can and then I need to talk to Cerb when he gets home.

~Drixx
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Post Post #12230  (ISO)  » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:39 pm

OK.. I've come to realize something and I'm not sure if it's spot on, so I'd need Mastina's view on this:

It's a grapes + RR scum team, and it was all a PERFECT scum theater yesterday.

The killing of Moi raised the stress to +4, which was probably what scum had counted on when they triggered their event that lowered the lynch threshold. (aside form the fact they probably expected someone else to be bubbled, and thus we would have been in LyLo anyway, but tactically they considered the case of one of them getting bubbled so the +1 lynch threshold would apply.)

RR now wanting grapes released before they get lynched is to guarantee the game doesn't end, and they are relying heavily on Mastina's blind belief that grapes is Town, AND using the fact Mastina said she would lynch grapes/Shiro if grapes refused to step out of the game along with Shiro to clear themselves.

You see, a Scum team of RR-grapes is now poised to actually WIN the game with either flip, but grapes will most likely refuse to trigger the event, and thus will be lunched. grapes flipping red will automatically get Shiro lynched the next day, and Mastina is the designated NK tonight, while either myself or random getting NK'd on teh following night guarantees RR ends game and is 1 on 1 with the other of Almost/random, i.e. winning the game.

I suggest we either lynch RR now and WITHOUT the release of grapes, or (and this is a better option) release grapes, ask him to do his thing, and when he does refuse we lynch him, but then we lynch RR tomorrow and not Shiro.

The No NK on Season Finale was simply to keep us on an even number not an odd number, which is statistically better for scum almost always.

I -of course- have not gone back a million posts ago and dug up to find links and evidence of what I'm saying, and I frankly am neither willing nor am I even capable of doing that, so I'll leave it to the one who does it best: Mastina.

@Mastina:

Just humour me, will you. Just try to entertain the idea of a grapes-RR scum duo and see if it has any potential to be the case, and then work from there. It maybe that both myself and yourself have been both right and wrong. I see the possibility now and it's precisely because of that +1 lynch threshold with the flip of MoI, whick leads me to believe a true brilliant tactician was behind both the NK and the Scum Event trigger at this precise time, coupled with my belief grapes IS scum.

Now grapes did NOT act on Season Finale because RR was allied with me, and knew I was going to follow grapes. What does elude me though is why they didn't kill themselves, thus "falsely" confirming grapes to everyone, but -like I said- I find the answer to that question in that hey wanted to keep us on an even number.
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Post Post #12231  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:33 am

mastin's plan won't work. grapes can't use his ability until season finale.
right now we are both thinking that almost is the most likely scum today. he has been extremely opportunistic. gonna look at some bubbling stuff to figure out the best play using his ability. the question is whether we risk the two man scumteam or not. Right now my likelihoods for remaining scum that I want to play around are
almost - right now the scummiest player IMO
Shiro/Grapes - this is the most dangerous combination
RR - don't think this is scum but does need to be considered.
any other teams aren't really worth considering at this point.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12232  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:27 am

I thought the only part of his power that was restricted to season finales was his ability to return if removed? Mastins plan was that YOU release him, as has been done with bubbled slots in the past, and then he can use his ability that willl remove him and one other?

Are you saying you can't release him period, or that his event only works on season finales?
-Cerb
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Post Post #12233  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:01 am

@random:

You better get your head out of that dark hole before it's too late. You should be one of those who CAN read me to a good extent, given this is not our first, second or even third game together, and given that you even have seen Scum!Me before.

Now what makes you think I'm opportunistic? My suggestion that we lynch RR before EITHER yours or Mastina's plan were proposed? Would you have preferred a push on the BUBBLED player? Or should I have pushed the player who CANNOT be lone Scum? The other two options would have been YOU, or CONF!Town Mastina. Now tell me, which of the four would YOU have voted??

Or is it because I agreed that -if applicable- that you should release grapes and let him leave the game along with Shiro using his ability?? I mean, just because I was opposed to Mastina's views yesterday doesn't mean I should pull a "NO to whatever you say". It sounded like a good plan (and it still does, except for you saying it can't be done).

I would very much appreciate you explaining what you perceive to be scummy behaviour from me.
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Post Post #12234  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:53 pm

In post 12230, Almost50 wrote:I'd need Mastina's view on this: It's a grapes + RR scum team, and it was all a PERFECT scum theater yesterday.
It's not impossible. I've explicitly brought it up; it was Magna who refused to think of the possibility, not me. So you don't need to convince me.

I mean, you do need to convince me, because I'm not convinced grapes is scum, but you don't need to convince me that hard.

I really fucking hate the scenario right now, because I was under the apparently-mistaken assumption the gems wouldn't be able to bubble tonight if they bubbled last night. And right now, as one of only two conftown, with MoI having been released in my opinion prematurely, I'm the only 100% reliable source of planning. randomidget is conftown, but no offense random, you're not exactly a gamebreaker. Magna is. I want to develop a 100% foolproof plan, but I know that I am wont to develop plans which have a glaringly obvious hole which I didn't see but someone else is able to exploit.

In this case, I'm pretty sure no matter what plan of the currently...three or four proposed plans, that there's a risk involved regardless, unless I can figure out how to sift through them and make them not have those flaws. It's a lot of pressure on me that I really wasn't looking forward to, especially since if as I suspect no plan is absolutely flawless...I'm left in a situation where I have to actually sift through nearly 500 pages and actually figure out which of the two choices is scum. (We can get it down to a 50/50 no matter which plan we do and no matter what risk we take. It might be a 50/50 today, it might be a 50/50 during the night, it might be a 50/50 tomorrow, but no matter what regardless of a plan, we've got at least a 50/50. It's just that we're trying to make BETTER than 50/50, and I'm not sure we can get that.)

Also, in terms of plans...the mercy option from the scum, and also the common courtesy option from the scum, would be killing me tonight. That would mean it wouldn't be my choice in any theoretical lylo/mylo tomorrow.
I mean. I'm not relying on mercy. The dick move is killing randomidget, ensuring that the gems lose even if the town wins. (I mean, if scum win, gems loses anyway, but killing the gems ensures the gems loses even if the town wins, and that's a dick move because the gems have contributed more to the gamestate allowing for a town victory than anyone else so robbing them of their victory for petty reasons is...like I said, a dick move. And while I'd certainly hope that the last scum wouldn't be a dick, I can't rely on it.)

But ideally, we win today.
If not, we win tonight.
If not, then not my problem.
And if not, if it becomes my problem, we win tomorrow.
Ideally.

I'm basically trying to cover every angle at the moment, and that's a level of computation which...is a bit difficult, so I hope you can bear with me for a bit. I know that I also need time on my side, to do this work quickly yet also thoroughly (which sucks especially since we're losing three days as of now thanks to the weekend), but the thoroughly is more important than the quickly in making sure we don't fuck things up.

It may be possible to ensure that scum can't win no matter what. I need to run the math on this, and be very careful about it. All the while, I need randomidget to ask grapes a bombardment of questions about every myriad of detail about the facets of grapes's role (everything randomidget can think of), and grapes to have done the same to Varsoon to get clarifications. After a few days of this, and randomidget relaying the answers to me, there are some questions I want to ask specifically if they weren't already answered, but which would be a bad idea for me to ask otherwise (because I don't want to give grapes the answer I'm looking for).

Only if a win isn't 100% possible do we enter into the realm of finding the best choices.

And by the way: regardless of autowin or no autowin, lynching RR today is going to be a part of my basic plan here.
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Post Post #12235  (ISO)  » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:29 pm

Ummm... It's not really that hard Mastin. Firstly, the fact that you don't see what's staring you right in the face is troubling (and I'm at the point where I just assume it's personal at this point... maybe we can talk after the game?). But regardless of that, there is almost certainly a guaranteed path to win, based upon what we know from the main thread:

1.) Pretty sure Grapes CAN use his thing today. A finale would give it extra utility, but that is not necessary. Just need Random to answer the question.
1a.) A grapes released who can't do what he claimed to MoI (and MoI outed to the thread) is obvscum and eats rope.

1b.) I'm assuming that if Grapes takes A50 from the game, we'll either have game over and we win or it has to be a Shiro + Grapes OR A50 left. (A50 has basically scum claimed with his posts today; I would have bet you nearly anything yesterday that we wouldn't ever want to lynch him but ... holy shit dat scumplay)

2.) If the game doesn't end when Grapes + A50/Shiro exit the game, lynch the other. That should be GG no matter what.
2a.) Alternatively, if REALLY that paranoid about us, lynch us.

3.) If we were to go into night phase at that point, Random could bubble us or whomever is left, and all threats are accounted for.

4.) If there was a Tomorrow, it would be You OR Random plus a known guilty and a 3rd person to secure the lynch.


This works because at this point any 2-man scum team must contain grapes or Shiro, and the plan handles all other contingencies. There's no way out for anyone, so the only way we lose is the super edge paranoia cases where the gems aren't town compatible after all or you convinced Yume to lie and have been playing the long con all game. Both of those seem so unlikely at this point as to only be mentioned to cover our ass if one of them is the case. We considered them and deemed them implausible.

I'm not sure why you were pretending it was difficult.

~Drixx
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Post Post #12236  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 7:41 am

In post 12234, mastin2 wrote:
In post 12230, Almost50 wrote:I'd need Mastina's view on this: It's a grapes + RR scum team, and it was all a PERFECT scum theater yesterday.
It's not impossible. I've explicitly brought it up; it was Magna who refused to think of the possibility, not me. So you don't need to convince me.

I mean, you do need to convince me, because I'm not convinced grapes is scum, but you don't need to convince me that hard.

I really fucking hate the scenario right now, because I was under the apparently-mistaken assumption the gems wouldn't be able to bubble tonight if they bubbled last night. And right now, as one of only two conftown, with MoI having been released in my opinion prematurely, I'm the only 100% reliable source of planning. randomidget is conftown, but no offense random, you're not exactly a gamebreaker. Magna is. I want to develop a 100% foolproof plan, but I know that I am wont to develop plans which have a glaringly obvious hole which I didn't see but someone else is able to exploit.

In this case, I'm pretty sure no matter what plan of the currently...three or four proposed plans, that there's a risk involved regardless, unless I can figure out how to sift through them and make them not have those flaws. It's a lot of pressure on me that I really wasn't looking forward to, especially since if as I suspect no plan is absolutely flawless...I'm left in a situation where I have to actually sift through nearly 500 pages and actually figure out which of the two choices is scum. (We can get it down to a 50/50 no matter which plan we do and no matter what risk we take. It might be a 50/50 today, it might be a 50/50 during the night, it might be a 50/50 tomorrow, but no matter what regardless of a plan, we've got at least a 50/50. It's just that we're trying to make BETTER than 50/50, and I'm not sure we can get that.)

Also, in terms of plans...the mercy option from the scum, and also the common courtesy option from the scum, would be killing me tonight. That would mean it wouldn't be my choice in any theoretical lylo/mylo tomorrow.
I mean. I'm not relying on mercy. The dick move is killing randomidget, ensuring that the gems lose even if the town wins. (I mean, if scum win, gems loses anyway, but killing the gems ensures the gems loses even if the town wins, and that's a dick move because the gems have contributed more to the gamestate allowing for a town victory than anyone else so robbing them of their victory for petty reasons is...like I said, a dick move. And while I'd certainly hope that the last scum wouldn't be a dick, I can't rely on it.)

But ideally, we win today.
If not, we win tonight.
If not, then not my problem.
And if not, if it becomes my problem, we win tomorrow.
Ideally.

I'm basically trying to cover every angle at the moment, and that's a level of computation which...is a bit difficult, so I hope you can bear with me for a bit. I know that I also need time on my side, to do this work quickly yet also thoroughly (which sucks especially since we're losing three days as of now thanks to the weekend), but the thoroughly is more important than the quickly in making sure we don't fuck things up.

It may be possible to ensure that scum can't win no matter what. I need to run the math on this, and be very careful about it. All the while, I need randomidget to ask grapes a bombardment of questions about every myriad of detail about the facets of grapes's role (everything randomidget can think of), and grapes to have done the same to Varsoon to get clarifications. After a few days of this, and randomidget relaying the answers to me, there are some questions I want to ask specifically if they weren't already answered, but which would be a bad idea for me to ask otherwise (because I don't want to give grapes the answer I'm looking for).

Only if a win isn't 100% possible do we enter into the realm of finding the best choices.

And by the way: regardless of autowin or no autowin, lynching RR today is going to be a part of my basic plan here.

like, if you could read my posts, that would be great. my plan was made by moi.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12237  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:47 pm

In post 12234, mastin2 wrote:In this case, I'm pretty sure no matter what plan of the currently...three or four proposed plans, that there's a risk involved regardless, unless I can figure out how to sift through them and make them not have those flaws.


I do have a plan that works fine with me, but maybe not for you and certainly not for random.

If we lynch RR & random finishes off grapes we either win outright or we enter the night with a 3 v 1 setup and Shiro is confirmed Scum (again; this is from where I stand. I know my own alignment, and I know you're Town and random is a gem, so there's absolutely no flaw in this plan from my PoV).

Now here's the problem (or problems):

1- This plan guarantees a TOWN win, but if random is NK'd the Gems also lose along with Scum.
2- Although I know my own alignment, neither you nor random do for certain. I'm willing to bet you may take it on faith and put your money on me being Town still, but it looks like random is too skeptical still that he might not go down that road, and we do need his support because we can't lynch RR w/o his vote and he is the one who is supposed to eliminate grapes.
3- If Shiro is Town he may have some reservations, but if he is Scum he certainly won't go along with the proposed plan.

In other words, my plan is PERFECT, but also cannot be applied!!!

Now the alternative would be to lynch Shiro and finish off grapes, leaving RR for the 'morro. If RR are Town they'd go along with this and we will win tonight. If they're Scum they'd be opposed to it and -once again- there's not much we can do here.

The third option is we No Lynch and we execute grapes. The obvious flaw here is -although unlikely- if it's a Shiro+RR duo, in which case we lose instantly.

I have now come to drop all reads and rely solely on mechanics with all probabilities equal, meaning there are only 3 clears from my PoV (You as confirmed by Yume and reconfirmed via the message Varsoon relayed to me, random as confirmed Gem and alignment by MoI and previously other Gems, and myself because I have the PM telling me I'm Cool Kid Buck Dewey aligned with Earth). So, I'm considering 3 single scum options and 3 "tag team" possibilities, mounting up to 6 possibilities in all, and examining the best way to guarantee they can't achieve majority.

All I can tell you now is whatever route we decide to walk; a grapes execution is key to the Town win, unless you want to take it all on faith.. blind faith that is.
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Post Post #12238  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:19 pm

In post 12235, Reasonably Rational wrote:(A50 has basically scum claimed with his posts today; I would have bet you nearly anything yesterday that we wouldn't ever want to lynch him but ... holy shit dat scumplay)


Mate, IF your slot is Town, please do consult with Cerb before you post anything about my play. Trust me, you do NOT know my Scum play. ;)
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Post Post #12239  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:25 pm

In post 12235, Reasonably Rational wrote:or you convinced Yume to lie


This CANNOT be the case. It has been <OD CONFIRMED TO ME that Yume DID GET A CONFIRMATION on Mastina's alignment. Yume would NOT have lied about SCUM telling us they were TOWN!!

My previous suspicion would have been that Yume "assumed" Mastina was Town but had no mod confirmation of it, but that was clearly a bad assumption because Yume DID GET MOD CONFIRMATION f Mastina's alignment and I got MOD CONFIRMATION that she did.
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Post Post #12240  (ISO)  » Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:31 pm

To reiterate, I have been receiving night messages from Mastina. hose messages are MOD CONFIRMED to be true. One of the messages to me Yume got mod confirmation of Mastina's alignment, and Varsoon guarantees the content of those messages to be true as long as they don't have direct alignment info. Now "Yume knows Mastina's alignment" isn't in itself considered alignment info, is it? The fact Yume told us what she knew to be true has nothing to do with the content of the message I received. So, "Yume knew Mastina's alignment" is the mod confirmed part to me, not that "Mastina is Town". However, with the first part confirmed the 2nd becomed confirmed because there's no way Yume would have covered for Scum whom she knew was Scum, or she would be playing against her win con outright. It's either Mastina is Town or VARSOON told Yume an outright lie. You take your pick.
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Post Post #12241  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 15, 2017 8:26 am

damn this is hard. I'm seriously trying to figure out who is scum and i really don't know :/
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Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
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Post Post #12242  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:04 pm

Random, umm...can you please directly respond to what Drixx and I are saying about how we believe grapes should be able to use his event today, based on what MoI shared with us about it at least? Right now, we believe we have a guaranteed win and are just waiting for other people to take the necessary steps. If something about our fundamental assumptions is incorrect, please tell us so we can work on figuring out alternatives.

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Post Post #12243  (ISO)  » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:48 pm

oh sorry did i not respond to that? mb
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12244  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:24 am

In post 12243, randomidget wrote:oh sorry did i not respond to that? mb


You do know that's not an actual answer right? :p

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Post Post #12245  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:38 pm

yeah, im just getting my thoughts into order right now. I've figured out an autowin plan is my understanding is correct.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12246  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:41 pm

it accounts for the scumteams: RR; grapes and shiro; almost
however, im not sure if it will work. it would involve lynching shiro today if it does work, and either conf towns grapes, leading to two conf towns and one scum regardless tomorrow or confirms him as scum.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

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Post Post #12247  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:36 pm

By all means go into detail Random. I put ours up because we couldn't find any flaw in it and I don't think anyone else could either, or else they would have spoken up by now. If yours is better in some way, let's see it. It's time to bring this puppy home to bed mate.

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Post Post #12248  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:24 pm

I'll double check with grapes if yours works. i dont think mine does, but otherwise i think yours is most effective.
"Lynch this with fire.
Lynch this with pyonium.
Lynch this with whatever the **** you can get your alien-hunting hands on!" - Alchemist21
"Tevinter is an all town masonry" - Titus

Almost50
Jack of All Trades
 
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Joined: November 13, 2015
Location: Right here.
Pronoun: He

Post Post #12249  (ISO)  » Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:53 pm

I'm starting to really get irritated by the stagnant status of this game.
Cop: Baka-dized Townsperson (Kaleg) :giggle:
Records: W/L
Town: 10/12, Mafia: 3/2, 3P: 0/1

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