A Mid-Scummer Night's Dream - D.S. al Fine

[Regfan]

This is the gold mine I think. I think the answers are going to be in day two end of day.

Yeah, mentioned it a few times but I think you reading through D1 and EOD2 is what's badly needed, not "Vote counts" and "VCA" stuff but instead peoples posting throughout that period and motivations behind their posts. The one thing I will agree with though is that the only world where I really think Ceph is ever scum is with the Syrana slot, the "strong meta town read" on him that he stated earlier and how that went around would make sense as a defense of a partner.

But I really really don't see your Ceph scum read, like treat me like a toddler and run me through exactly why you think he's mafia because I think there's a decent chance I just get shot tonight and he gets mslynched tomorrow if he's actually town here since mafia know I'm one of the few that'll actually defend him here. So lets talk this read over a little more before the day ends, right now if I'm lynching to hit scum he's like 5th on my list so him being your first is ??? for me.

[Regfan]

my only concern with voting lld is that if shes scum i dont know what the point of the global roleblock was.

but like.

on the other hand.

i dont know what the point of her role is if shes claiming that shes a commuter with a downside either.

i just dont understand where the town power is in this setup at all.

Can you elaborate on your reads/thoughts a little more for me?

Need you to do two things for me;

1) Put role claims and setup speculation to the side for a second. Who here do you think is town, who here you do you think is mafia via play and why?
2) Run me through what world you think is the most likely if LLD is town here and the world you think is most likely if she's scum and again why?

Like I've just gone over your ISO and there's not a lot of actual stances taken and reads put forward, there's commentary on ;things; but that's it.

[Regfan]

Math isn't wrong if we're no lynching 100% cannot hide.

Now: Assume the chosen dream is a PR. Who would you give it to in my shoes and why?

Don't think anyone answering this or you hinting towards who you would/wouldn't is a good idea at all.

[serrapaladin]

@Reg: assuming LLD is scum, do you think it's more likely she's buddying town!Hebi or planning to strongly support scum!Hebi?

Also can you see a coherent state of affairs in which LLD is town?

[serrapaladin]

I find Hebi's stance towards LLD a bit strange. For one he comments that he has such trouble properly sorting her, but then never really second guesses the claim, and also comes up with posts like these:

Hey remember a few pages back people thought LLD might be mason, because she never hard claimed?

She still never claimed cop. I don't get why NMS and D have been acting like she has.

If LLD was worried about Mastina's claim, she wouldn't have killed the slot last night, I can actually say that.

Other random posts of interest

Spoiler:

Funny you got a wheel of time character when you talk about that so much.

Yes desperado, we have an obvious plan to buddy each other as scum and when one of us flips scum we....just die?

I wish there was a larger eye roll emote because I think I need it.

All you need to do is flip me, lld then mari and you win scum the game for them.

I can explain why she targeted me, we live together and she likes me better than everyone else here .

[serrapaladin]

lynch hebi today

lynch LLD tomorrow

resume scumhunting based on the unfoldings of that

lmfao what

I have a really weird brain and I see avenues and angles to gamesolving that are really hard for me to describe/explain

I'm pretty concerned that drealm is using this "herp derp I'm just weird" angle to cover for scumslips. I just don't see a way that town thinks things through and comes to the conclusion that we should lynch hebi before LLD.

That coupled with the last pages really has me thinking it's LLD+drealm+ either twie or reg

[Regfan]

@Reg: assuming LLD is scum, do you think it's more likely she's buddying town!Hebi or planning to strongly support scum!Hebi

Think with how the games played particularly with how Hebichans read on LLD has been throughout the game, most notably at the time of the Desperado lynch and how it's evolved afterwards (completely inorganically in that she's treating LLD as town with confidence in some posts and scum with confidence in others and not moving from one to the other with any form of reasoning, her "I guess you could call LLD a town read" to "If Desp flips town we lynch LLD" is something I just really think makes a lot of sense as distancing) I think they're much more likely together than not right now. Wouldn't put it past LLD to be just hard defend a partner like Hebichan and plan on winning with both alive there and at several points it looks like them tag-teaming players.

Also can you see a coherent state of affairs in which LLD is town?

Outside of there being some sort of false-positive type thing being in the game (Hebi!Scum & LLD!Town -- although admittedly if this is the case scums night kills make a decent amount of sense) or having a seriously wrong read somewhere, not really, no.

[Regfan]

I'm pretty concerned that drealm is using this "herp derp I'm just weird" angle to cover for scumslips. I just don't see a way that town thinks things through and comes to the conclusion that we should lynch hebi before LLD.

Eh, we've had this conversation a few times if you're talking about way back on D2/D3, probably a ~10 page version of it with Me/Brian/Dreamlz where both Brian and myself found a huge issue with that from him but it's not been the only time I've been ????????? with how he's thinking this game and I can say it now that the game's well and truly over, I felt the same about him when I was spec'ing Deddedded and he was town there so I think it's plausibly a case of us just approaching games in very different avenues. If he's stated it more recently than that (ie. today) then I've missed it at some point but if he did I have less of an issue with that now since "order" is really irrelevant now, it's just about hitting every time. I'm more at a LLD+Hebi+ 1 of Dreamlz/TWIE spot right now which isn't hugely different from where you are but other than "Thinking LLD was buddying Hebichan" what's your read on Hebi here?

[serrapaladin]

if there were people here with more experience with me they'd tell you I wouldn't make that shitpost as scum, I'm sure

that's me just being craptown

You shit post in memory nice try

I mean making really bad nonsense posts that "whoops I forgot" the facts

and if your argument is "you could have actually forgotten about the BP vest confirmation as scum" - that's never something I'd do as scum I don't think, forget something that meaningful and obvious, I don't even know how I could forget that if I were scum, unless I suckbad as scum, which I don't, which is where my point on this started from

@reg this recent stuff got me thinking about that earlier bit with brain again. I'll have a look at that game tonight when I'm on a PC. But basically some recent stuff I would interpret as scum drealmerz7 failing to emulate the right level of knowledge town should have. But perhaps that's reconcilable with his other weirdness.

For hebi, some of the quotes I posted seem pretty bold for buddies, but I suppose given the context of them living together I could see them just deciding to go hard on lld protecting hebi and using the 'would we really do that as scum' wifom.

[Cephrir]

dang vca got me again

and mathblade's sick meta of having played with me twice is just too strong! darn

[Cephrir]

ill get you next time, brilliant detective mathblade! NEXT TIIIIIIME!

[MathBlade]

dang vca got me again

and mathblade's sick meta of having played with me twice is just too strong! darn

Gay Mafia, Gistou, Magical Girls Mafia try thrice. Only two times with you as scum.

Hell I figured out you were scum and coached you and RAM on how to use the reflector so I could do what I wanted.

Regfan I like just don't see LLD or hebichan scum here. I just don't. Please do the same with me.

In regards to Cephrir: Always put pressure on him early

Town Cephrir Scum Me: viewtopic.php?p=8208247#p8208247
Tells me to pay attention. He doesn't attack me or my skill he attacks the argument and says to pay attention

Town me Scum Cephrir: viewtopic.php?p=9119047#p9119047
Makes a "joke" about how NOT worried he is that I suspect him. [4509 this game matches]

Scum Cephrir Scum me (diff teams multiball Cephrir townread me):
viewtopic.php?p=8111008#p8111008
Much more calmer about thinks. He also attacks the skill of those who scumread him a lot.

His reactions got me started to scumread him. Will explain the rest after work.

[Cephrir]

oh, THREE!!!! ok you know everything there is to know about me then

[drealmerz7]

Ugh...Like Cephrir reads like he knows people are town and drealmerz being a gambiter doesn't consider other people are gambiters? (See In Memory)

I'm not a gambiter AS TOWN

this is about not considering LLD is lying AS TOWN

UGHHHHHHHHHH wow....This is horrible. Being willing to hammer Cephrir after his claim without knowing what it is?

no, I'm not going to hammer if the claim convinces me otherwise
I didn't say "will hammer regardless of what the claim is", just making it clear that I won't hammer until there is a claim

[Cephrir]

@math

has it occurred to you that perhaps there are other reasons for that change? such as making charitable assumptions about you at first, and then changing them as a result of further information?

i attacked the skill of you when you were scumreading me because you didn't make any bloody sense. as you can see from me continuing to claim as such in this game, clearly i honestly believe you didn't make any sense and randonly happened to get it right in that one.

Much more calmer about thinks.

do i seem calm to you today? i'm very much not.

[drealmerz7]

But basically some recent stuff I would interpret as scum drealmerz7 failing to emulate the right level of knowledge town should have. But perhaps that's reconcilable with his other weirdness.

seriously, I have no issue emulating the right level knowledge as scum
this is just me being mehtown

go look at a couple of my scumgames, and while I still argue all of the time that past history isn't something you can predict me on (I change up quite a bit), you can still tell my cunning ability as scum and how I'm not at all being cunning here, I think?

[Cephrir]

it's pretty neat how bad my scum game is that i decided to antagonize someone when i was sitting pretty! boy, it sure makes sense that scum me would be sooooo worried about this one vote!!!

oh right, no it fucking doesn't whoa

[Cephrir]

if i'm scum here and reg is town and so is lld i probably feel pretty confident here about getting him to vote her

do i seem confident?

[Cephrir]

can i perhaps persuade you to withhold your vote tomorrow long enough for me to prove to you that your view of the gamestate is wrong? i believe other votes coming down will likely do that.

or lld is just town and ill misvote and lose, but since you believe i'm scum that shouldn't worry you

[drealmerz7]

meanwhile

LLD, hebichan, and TWIE continue to do ABSOUTELY NOTHING

no lynch makes no GD sense when we've got 3 uberlurkers in MYLO

pick the most likely one to be scum and lynch it, if it is town and we lose, rip them a new asshole for being terrible town lurksacks that lost us the game

[drealmerz7]

that's LLD, fyi

[Cephrir]

Yeah, they might as well lurk it out at this point, they have a secure mislynch. math will scumread anyone who disagrees with them, so why post?

[morph the cat]

Happy Scumday, Cephrir!

[drealmerz7]

Yeah, they might as well lurk it out at this point, they have a secure mislynch. math will scumread anyone who disagrees with them, so why post?

well they were lurking well before math replaced in, it's just intensified because math's doing their song and dance

[Cephrir]

Happy Scumday, Cephrir!

It's really not, but I appreciate the sentiment.