Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Punreader]

5.02

davesaz (4):

punreader, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kaede Akamatsu

REAL MEN ONLY JUNGLE (2):

davesaz, YT2980

wilky (3):

Dunnstral, Alchemist21, Kokichi Oma

Dunnstral (2):

wilky, Alchemist21

Not Voting:

None

With

10

alive,

6

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-06-26 17:15:26)

MOD: Can the mafia both kill and action?

I can't find that information in the mod's iso, and it's not listed in the mafia's role PMs.

[Punreader]

This game is really not that hard.
If mafia can't both action and kill, JUNGLE becomes conftown. (Sadly, I don't expect this to be the case, but we're in for a VERY pleasant surprise if so.)
Dunnstral is soft-conftown.
Kaede is hard-conftown.
I have hard-townreads on Ankamius and YT.
I know myself to be town.

That narrows the pool down to wilky/Kokichi Oma/Alchemist21/davesaz.

We have four lynches by my math. (1, 10 > 8. 2, 8 > 6. 3, 6 > 4.) We could literally lynch all of them and we would win, not even going into additional reasons for narrowing the pool down further. (Namely, reasonable townread on wilky and soft townread on Kokichi Oma.)

Pagetopping this part because it's important enough to warrant a repeat and not be missed.

Change any player in that list with Dunn and i'll get on board with this. I'll even eat the lynch today as long as Dunn gets swapped into this list. Until then my votes not moving.

You apparently missed the part where Dunnstral is conftown.

To reiterate,

Since we can reasonably infer the pun nightkill N1 was not ManWithNoName, we can reasonably infer the strongman was not utilized N1 (

especially given MariaR claimed to use her action on Dunnstral

). Given this, it is probable that they intended to save the strongman for as long as possible.

MariaR, Kellogg (

Institute 1-shot Bulletproof 1-shot Strongman Reconneusieur

), was lynched Day 4.

Abilities:

• Reconnaissance:
  Whoever your target visits/visits the target will be followed by you.

This is what I'm referring to RE: MariaR on Dunnstral.

Targeting a punbuddy is useless, because all it does is give Voyeur results on them; it'll tell her what actions were used on a punbuddy, but not yield usable information.

Targeting a town player, however, not only tells her what actions were used on that player (not very usable, but potentially useful), but

also

act as a soft-Rolecop, because she

Follows

the target. She'd see a protective action if used; a killing action if used; an investigative action if used. These are valuable things for her to learn about town players.

I thus truthfully believe she targeted Dunnstral N1, and that this makes him town.

This is not in of itself solid evidence, but it corroborates the existing evidence between my analysis on him combined with my own read on his play this game.

MariaR is proven to have had a role which was a combined Follower/Voyeur.
Using this on her punbuddy is useless; she knows the Follower half because she is his punbuddy, and thus reduces it to a mere Voyeur of a punbuddy. Knowing what actions were performed on her punbuddy but not what type is near-useless information.

Using this on a town player is useful; she now gets a pseudo-[post=Rolecop]Rolecop[/post] which gives her the role information of players she doesn't already know, while also allowing her to know what actions were used on that player. Though the second has only marginal use (for instance, telling her if someone investigated/protected Dunnstral can tell her what other players think of Dunnstral), the first cannot be emphasized enough.

She, essentially, rolecopped Dunnstral N1.

You can argue wifom of "she lied", or "she used it on her punbuddy", but both violate occam's razor; the simpler answer is she told the truth and targeted a town player with her action.

This thus clears Dunnstral.

[Ankamius]

I like how alchemist21 is a double voter

[wilky]

Nonsense Dunn is not confirmed town. Nowhere in Maria's role on does it say she has to post in the thread for her target. It was a gambit and now the question is wether the gambit was done on genuine town or a scum partner.

I'll L-1 Dave to get this over and done with but tomorrow we lynch Dunn

VOTE: Dave L-1

[GuyInFreezer]

MOD: Can the mafia both kill and action?

This depends on how I balanced the setup.

[Kokichi Oma]

Eh. I still think Dave's ate was town.

[YT2980]

Call me stubborn, but this one simply has other thoughts; cannot mine the real point out of dave’s role pm reaction as scum, in that it was extreme. It’s easier and more credible to believe he’s town on that alone. I never recall in any of the games I’ve played in as town or scum having seen a scum player want to quote their role pm, but I have seen it multiple times with town.

Has anybody ever seen a scum player threaten to quote their role PM? Seeing it might weaken my townread of dave ever-so-slightly, but I need to see that information firsthand to begin with.

Also, I will officially place punreader in my townpile, which currently consists of Kaede/YT, ankamius, davesaz, dunnstral, and NOW punreader. I just don’t see scumreader (or punreader, going by his terminology) putting in the kind of seriously invested town-looking effort to the analyses that he has provided with possibly only himself left, given that I still believe there is only one scum left and I will until I get an indication otherwise.

so that leaves scum possibilities in alchemist (still a townlean for me), kokichi (idk what to think of his play), wilky (not willing to lynch him today, though) and rmoj (my clear go-to option).

[Dunnstral]

Seriously doubt dave is scum, post 5253 is really bad, Wilky deserves votes

[YT2980]

Seriously doubt dave is scum, post 5253 is really bad, Wilky deserves votes

Upon further review, agree with this wholeheartedly. Lining up lynches doesn’t ever have a good look on town, and his vote on dave has a bandwagon-y look and feel to it.

tempted to put wilky at L-1, but I will first take a look at and review any cases where I feel wilky’s role could be useful in this game moving forward, because an investigative is not something you want to mess around with at L-1 unless you have serious cause to do so.

[YT2980]

so he claims miller slow cop

how does his role work? can someone refer me to how the slow cop ability operates?

[davesaz]

As much as I'd love to just ignore this game completely to save my sanity and physical health, can't resist.
(note, I don't replace out -- it's rude to the mod and the player list, and IMO the only reason for doing so is if you

really

can't get on at all for too long a time)

Slow cop: must investigate same person two nights in a row, gets results after 2nd visit.
Claimed to have been interfered with. OTM (now revealed to be town) is the only blocking role we were aware of that would interrupt it.
I do not remember if Wilky has said who the target was (or if he changed targets for that matter).
I do not remember if any other role has flipped that would interfere with it.

Spoiler: stuff

Oh look at the town guy giving accurate information when he can, and saying when he doesn't know.
<waits for punreader to somehow make this scummy>

<returns to position under rock>

[YT2980]

hmm, thanks dave! he’s claimed to have been interfered with twice, right? and from what i explicitly remember reading, otm claimed to have not targeted him...

i will backtrack and actually say this is a decent lynch option to pursue today because of his investigative abilities being supposedly compromised so far. I would expect that theme to continue since it’s happened twice already, and we have no inication otherwise. Further, provided he is scum, this wouldn’t be the hardest ploy in the world to hide behind... this could all be an act, potentially. moreover, he’s been in my top 2 scumspects for a little while now; looks like both ramcius and i have found him somewhat scummy. And I think he’s more likely to flip scum than the other option, dave.

Plus, if he somehow happens to flip town, I feel his lynch will give us more information regarding the gamestate, and whether scum may actually have something of a roleblocker variant given that no one who is town-aligned from what i’m aware of has claimed to have interfered with either of wilky’s results.

If someone can claim to having interfered with wilky once AND is town, please step up to the plate now!

VOTE: Wilky

L-1

Let’s not hammer him until after he defends himself though, and people have had the time to acknowledge this.

[Kaede Akamatsu]

It's 6 to lynch.

[YT2980]

you’re right kaede,

never mind, l-2 then!

[Alchemist21]

I believe it’s highly plausible scum has something to either block or redirect. I don’t see the point in my party starter item if it was meant as just a bypass to another Town PR. Like why does my role need to exist if the only roleblocker in the game is also Town and there are no redirectors?

[Alchemist21]

Spoiler: WRT OTM/ALCH

@Impossibear,

did Jingle ever give input on the Party Starter?

Everyone else is saying OTM is just stubborn Town but I still have a hard time seeing it.

P-edit: Now that I can agree with. :/

My drunk post ate my input. Sorry.

Town OTM and town you is possible if we make the additional assumption of Scum JK/Busdriver. Preliminary setup spec says that the odds of one of those two is near 100%, because there's no scum motivation to give US specifically the Party Starter and OTM has been playing to their town meta. There is no way your role and OTM's are both town without another role affected by your role. And, having made that bit of theory leap, your role is almost outed already, so I'm just going to stop talking in riddles about this particular piece of information.

Alchemist gave us a Party Starter last night. I confirmed this to him via crumb early today and he responded in kind, so I'm 100% sure it came from him. The party starter makes us strong willed.

There is no scum motivation to giving the vig the Party Starter if the vig is hard townreading you (we were, fairly obviously). There is no scum motivation in NOT giving the strong willed modifier to your partner if there is a town RB. OTM claimed yesterday. The paranoia wrt to OTM makes perfect sense from someone who isn't nuts in the exact same way as me

This doesn't discount the OTM is town argument, however. I don't see OTM as a player reacting to the hebi situation the same way as scum. The dave target N1 was an objectively good RB target for town. It was an objectively terrible target for scum, and claiming it when you didn't target dave under no pressure makes no sense at all unless we assume hebi is either A. an idiot or B. suicidal. The dave retarget makes sense from the POV of someone absolutely convinced that dave is scum, which fits OTM's play to a T. Compounding that, every word of pun's wall about OTM rings true to my knowledge of them as a player. TBF, I have seen scum OTM much less frequently than town OTM, but this? This is town OTM. This is genuine frustration that people are playing "wrong" not cackling with glee as people play "wrong" and tear themselves apart.

I just don’t think that is a thing. It’s more likely a fruit vendor than a new type of action.

You're looking at this wrong, btw. Someone came up with the new type of action. The question is, was it GiF or Jungle. Given the rest of the setup so far, my bet is heavily on GiF. The reason (THE ONLY REASON) I doubt the claim and think it might be a public fruit vendor is because of the way Jungle approached the quest. Specifically, he did not claim any additional input was necessary from him at the time of the original claim to the best of my knowledge, nor did he object when I claimed my plan to quickhammer any wagon that hit L-1, which apparently would have fucked up his action.

Objectively speaking, Jungle is neither locktown nor confscum. If we lynch him, it's a policy lynch. (A policy lynch I passively support, but ETL thinks he's town so a bad one nonetheless, when we have legitimately scummy players to sort.)

Alch and OTM are both locktown, though not conftown. Jungle is null from a mechanical standpoint, but I could endorse a policy lynch if ETL wasn't townreading the slot independently. Objectively speaking, knowing me/RC are both town, Jungle putting himself in the middle of that fight to calm us both down took balls of steel if he's scum. If I'm wrong about his identity, he's 100% town for it. I find this very unlikely. Either way, thanks for doing so, friend.

Pun is solidly town atm, both because the wall post is exactly what I expect from town pun at this point in the game, AND because of RC's setup spec D2. I can find and link if anyone needs that explained. There are, however, several points that needs be addressed.

Spoiler: Pun Response

GIF already answered your mod question. The player flips with whatever role they died with, and the swap could be used ad nauseam. As such, we know that Vent was a roleswapper when he died, but not what role he entered the game with, suggesting that the rest of the scumteam has an incredible amount of power, but probably not a godfather.

Your Maria read is based partially on an inconsistency in claims. This is not the case. AFAICR, there is nothing suggesting that Maria has an investigative independent of her shared investigative with RC. However, the rest of your analysis of her play rings true and I support the scumread there.

With that said, I'm going to drop an action plan for Maria shortly to hopefully turn her and her neighbor into a mason pair, so it's a bad lynch today anyway.

I remain unsure we were the nightkill N1. I also maintain that it really doesn't matter, from a guilty/inno on dave perspective. We simply don't know enough to know if there is another hidden action manipulating things, and I find it likely there is.

I don't think you should telegraph your hide tonight because:

Spoiler: There's probably a busdriver

So, I mentioned earlier that there being a busdriver necessarily means that OTM/Alch could both be town. Here's why it's probably that specific role, or at least a role in that family.

When I said that the Party Starter made us strongwilled, that was a slight lie. GiF didn't use that modifier, he spelled out what that modifier does. This is evidence that GiF is unaware of the modifier's existence, but also weak evidence that there is both a blocking and redirecting role in the setup.

Busdriver interacts favorably with vigs, hiders, slowcops, and Jungle's role. It significantly reduces the amount of power available to us by making it so that if we choose predictable targets, scum can turn our kill into a second scumkill. It gives scum a chance to fuck with the hider role in a way that makes the modification to the hider role important. It can't give fake guilties, real guilties, and can be an extra scumkill if used poorly. The slowcop interaction is almost as strong as a roleblocker, but not quite. See, with a redirector/busdriver, wilky has a chance to hit the player he was redirected to the next night.

The NAR portion of OTM's role also suggests that this kind of role exists. Basically, from what I can glean OTM is motivated (They act first). This resolves the potential action interaction annoyance of having multiple blocking/redirecting roles in the same setup. This means town has a way of making the scum kill not a functional strongman (should scum choose to use their busdriver that way).

Jungle's role also interacts favorably with a busdriver. The public portion of the quest tells him immediately if he's redirected, and if his role is town he can now inform us that the role exists and he was redirected.

And finally:

Spoiler: @ Maria

Lynching Maria today is DUMB.

Lynching Dunn is interesting, in that if he has an active power that's basically a hard guilty on Maria, but I don't really want to consider or the implications thereof atm.

Here's how we deal with the Maria sitch:

1. Maria outs neighborhood partner. Said partner corroborates or CC's all information received from Maria today.
2. Maria confirms with GIF that they still have access to the group track.
3. Maria tells us whether they have/had daytalk.
4. Maria confirms with GIF whether a roleblock on a member of the neighborhood will stop the track, or whether every member of the neighborhood needs to be roleblocked to stop the track.
5. Maria targets us or OTM tonight (Or Kaede). If they receive a result, they become a pair of masons. If they don't, then there is confirmed a scum in the grouping. Yes, I am confirming we will use our murderlating powers tonight.
6. Maria tells us whether she was recruited to the neighborhood thread overnight or at Daystart.

Clearly I'm making some assumptions about how the role works here, but I think I covered all the relevant questions that neighborhood members need to ask.

Impossibear had a lot to say on the subject.

[Kokichi Oma]

VOTE: wilky

[Kokichi Oma]

Was I already voting him? I don't remember. Anyway, Kaede vote wilky for me.

[Ankamius]

Assume for a moment that davesaz is town, you need to ensure we eventually lynch scum by avoiding lynching town.

you're town
wilky is town
punreader is town (I know who pun is and I know enough about how they play to be able to state confidently that they don't have the reads they do here as scum, I'd rather not go further into this if I don't absolutely have to)

yt looks a lot better (the question to him was a test, he reacted the way I would've expected town to)
alchemist21 is a stale townread

realmen idk, the confidentish townread on me really bugs me because this game is within my scumrange
kokichi idk, I don't even remember why I was townreading that slot anymore
dunnstral idk, all I remember about this slot is that I could see it being scum with Vent back on day one

davesaz is strong scum

yeah let's lynch wilky

better yet, let's follow up by killing punreader tomorrow

then let's do yt

finally alchemist

easy town win, easy

[Kaede Akamatsu]

Was I already voting him?

yes

[wilky]

Go ahead lynch me just lynch Dunn afterwards.

Miller Slow Cop - Nick Valentine

N1+2 - Maria No Result
N3+4 - Ram/YT No Result

[Kokichi Oma]

okay

[Ankamius]

davesaz (4):

punreader, Ankamius, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, Kaede Akamatsu

wilky (4):

Dunnstral, Alchemist21, Kokichi Oma, YT2980

one of these wagons is more trustworthy than the other

[Ankamius]

when pun and I are both synced for independent reasons, there's a very high chance we're right

[Ankamius]

every other slot in the game has ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh reasons to be scum, if any

davesaz makes perfect sense as scum