In post 226, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Saber
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Ruler,Avenger,Foreigner
Caster,Beast
Berserker
Assassin
Alter Ego
VOTE: Saber
In post 462, Servant Moon Cancer wrote:Archer
Ruler
Beast,Caster,Berserker
Shielder,Lancer,Rider,Avenger,Assassin
Saber
Foreigner
Alter Ego
VOTE: Servant Berserker
It seems like your entire readslist has flipped, can you explain what changed for each of-
Saber, Ruler, Beast, Caster, me, Assassin, and Foreigner?
A night of sleep and a fresh look at my reads.
Servant Ruler gave great reasons for many people. Ruler is terribly wrong on Ego, and the reasons for the reads on Ego, Rider and Lancer are too weak for me.
With these three, Saber, Foreigner and Alter Ego the rest of my reads indeed flipped. My reason to scumread Berserker was not as good as I thought yesterday. Caster looks more and more like a townie stumbling in the dark. Ruler is conditional on Saber and Foreigner being scum, but I believe that the POE of {Alter Ego, Foreigner, Saber} has three scum. That obviously leaves one scum but I am sure we can find that one eventually.
This was the post. notscience didn't think Moon would omit Beast from his response to being asked about reads if they were teammates. But I feel the opposite way. He got asked about Beast and couldn't actually come up with anything to say about him. Like he didn't know how to justify a non-bus read on a teammate. Cabd must have been laughing at us.
In post 2347, Servant Beast wrote:Why would I point out how hard my scum partners were being bussed by my scum partners before anyone else had voiced this concern btw?
I'm genuinely curious why you think I would frame the game that way.
To get ahead of the curve, to look like you were really on top of things? You'd been pushing Foreigner to that point, if the wagon on Moon went through you'd have to explain yourself, you pre-empt it by calling out the bus. I don't know. The question for me isn't "why would you do this as scum?" but "Would a town player think like this?" And the thing, for me anyway, was that you called it a bus but still held on on moving any attention toward Moon Cancer.
In post 2352, Servant Rider wrote:Does anyone believe Moon Cancer would lay out all their scumbuddies in a POE like that?
He kept the three remaining players that could be scum at or near the bottom half of their reads list, with his two other partners near the absolute bottom.
So, yes?
I will take solace in the fact that notscience was able to see the goodness in my posting when many others couldn't see any (although these players couldn't see the evilness in my posts either, so I guess they just don't know how to read me).
Question for Assassin btw.
How do you want to approach the neighborhood at night? I think that regardless of who flips today you can probably confirm another player if you're night killed by giving the player a code to confirm that you neighborhooded with them.
Would that be against the rules?
That should guarantee a win even if I get flipped today.
1. Kill rider.
2. If game doesn't end have Assassin visit me and give me a code.
3. Freak out for awhile and spam 200 pages of solve, paranoia, and role paranoia.
4. Probably kill Alter.
In post 2343, Servant Alter Ego wrote:I also ask at that point in time, in light of notscience's scumread on Beast, whether he outs that clear on Shielder at the moment he did. I felt at that point in time that Shielder was obvious burn-bait if they were town due to their low level of contribution. The fact that it was a hard roleclaim seemed to me like an utterly insane and possibly game-losing gambit for scum to make at the time.
Do you still believe this? Or has your stance on this changed?
In post 1656, Servant Lancer wrote:my ability is conditional on something so I didn't want to risk the condition failing on Berserker, and Ruler seemed like the obvious NK to me. Avenger was the only other person that I could be reasonably sure the condition would work on.
In post 85, Servant Lancer wrote:I feel like I’m being pretty wishy-washy. It’s probably still better if I’m not selected, although I won’t say no if we’re prioritizing trying to hit town. I feel like I’ll be pretty obvtown which is good for that, but also I’ll be obvtown regardless and don’t need the master to confirm me per se.
I feel like you may have alluded to it early on here? Which gives some credibility to your claim for me.
I thought you were probably town anyway.
yes, that's why I didn't care about being master. I knew I could be confirmed anyway.
In post 1672, Servant Lancer wrote:Why would your area of doubt be on me naming my ability and not on, say, whether Avenger is lying?
I don't really understand this question.
If you hadn't outright claimed your ability, I would question it more. And I outright even said I don't think this setup is capable of producing that many clears, or at least not as easily as some would like to believe.
However, you did outright claim your ability, and it seems to make sense with your early play. And I felt like you were likely to be town even without this ability.
Avenger isn't really in a position to lie about your ability, even if he were scum. However, there is plenty for him to gain for him by telling the truth, especially since he was probably already in the hot seat as it were.
As far as the setup goes, we have:
-Potential to modconfirm a townie with a mechanic that definitely leans more toward the town (see: Berserker)
-A claimed Friendly Neighbor (that seems to be gated in some way)
-A super-cop-like NP that Assassin is claiming to have
-An informed townie that knows another player has to be town
Not to mention what else could be in this setup.
Considering the stomp of a game that was the previous FGO, do you really think Cabd feels like town needs all this basically free help to overpower and beat the scumteam?
Of the three I bolded, two of them also seem to require the town to be able to earn with decent play in some way. The last one was claimed by Beast, and I still think he's lying about it.
the only way you think I might not actually be confirmed town is if you think Avenger and I are scum together, as this game is explicitly not bastard. It shouldn't matter what my ability is or isn't.
my being conftown shouldn't depend on my ability, it should depend on whether or not you think Avenger is lying. it doesn't matter if it's my ability or if it's a random person's ability
In post 1695, Servant Archer wrote:imo, Lancer is confirmed town in every scenario, unless the team is exactly Avenger+Lancer, which seems like too silly of an idea to entertain, even if Avenger does flip scum.
right. it literally doesn't matter what my ability is or what ability caused Avenger to receive the message. unless you think Avenger is lying about receiving the message (and that Avenger and I are scum together), I should be confirmed town. that's why it's weird to me that Rider is talking about believing my ability being the reason to think I'm town. it just straight up should not matter.
When I was looking back at other posts, I remembered this interaction with Lancer and how it rubbed me the wrong way at the time.
I felt like Lancer was mostly just interested in being treated as confirmed town rather than letting others understand where it was coming from. Obviously, I don't hold his ability in as high regard as the other "clears", and have stated so, and a lot of it has to do with his attitude around it.
Specifically the part about how Lancer kept trying to shut down me questioning the source of why Avenger thought they were town. The basic argument was "well if Avenger is town, then I must be as well, nothing else should matter" and I still find it incredibly grating.
In post 2157, Servant Lancer wrote:yep, his defense of foreigner and insistence on scum!avenger is I think the most suspicious out of the players remaining. I agree with rider next
I don’t think caster and assassin are 100% cleared either - given avenger’s flip, it’s possible that scum also have abilities that fool detectives or whatever beast is, or used an ability on assassin that prevented him from being blocked. I also don’t put a ton of stock in caster saying beast is town because “why would scum!beast clear players,” because on D2 he did attempt to clear foreigner. (actually, because beast said he had cleared foreigner, I assumed that there were only two scum left, not three, otherwise how would beast know that foreigner was 100% cleared from his action? But there were actually three scum left at that time, so foreigner should not have been cleared at that time just based on the action. I think this is somewhat scum-indicative for beast?)
Of course it’s possible that alter is deepwolfing, but I think that’s unlikely given he had the same reaction as me to avenger in real time?
And then in twilight, Lancer completely shuts down Caster and Assassin as potential clears, but based on the way they speak, seems to think they should still be treated as confirmed town.
And then Lancer also finds a way to shade pretty much every other player as a potential locktown in the span of the same post.
Berserker dying after Lancer sets up Rider + Beast eliminations is something I also find particularly disconcerting. Especially considering it feels like Lancer is content to phone it in as Alter, Beast, and I argue it out (although earlier it was mostly just me and Beast).
Funny enough, the comment about Beast is incorrect as there were two scum left when Beast claimed their result on Foreigner.
In post 2279, Servant Lancer wrote:the mod tells a person I’m town. how is that weaker mechanically than investigative clears which can be bypassed with abilities? Unless this game is bastard, a friendly neighbor, equivalent to an IC >>>>>>>>> any other clear
I'm still not huge on this as I feel like there are other roles that can replicate a message being sent to another player. But seeing as how Lancer kept shutting down the discussion surrounding it, and seemed fairly sensitive to it, it's hard to know.
In post 2186, Servant Lancer wrote:I mean you were basically the only person trying to prevent Foreigner from being wagoned D2 and insisted that Avenger was scum, which in retrospect seems like the most obvious scum motivation to me since Avenger was town
While Lancer is right that I was very much in favor of eliminating Avenger, and against a wagon on Foreigner for wagon dynamics, I feel like this comment is very disingenuous after looking back through their iso.
I think foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming counterwagons to moon cancer is probably town-indicative for them and scum-indicative for moon cancer, on average. (although saber could still be scum, I think moon cancer is most likely of the 3 to be scum regardless of saber's alignment). I thought saber's NP stuff was a bit oblivious and have no idea whether that's intentional or not, but on second thought I don't think I think it's inherently scummy.
In post 1035, Servant Lancer wrote:Pretty much everyone has Avenger in their nullscum tiers (except for like, Saber, which I feel like could be partner-indicative for Avenger & Saber) and yet no one has voted him. So I'm fine voting there too.
Saber also had some fencesitting hesitation over voting moon cancer so I could easily see that be a bussing vote.
In post 1040, Servant Alter Ego wrote:I'm not interested in moving off Saber when they haven't really responded to the votes on them or being wagoned at all. Also, the narrative of them being a "counterwagon" to Moon Cancer doesn't really track - 3 of the voters on Saber were common ith the ones on Moon Cancer - Me, Lancer, and Rider.
In post 1041, Servant Alter Ego wrote:It is, however, notably ironic that I'm apparently Moon Cancer's biggest scumread but they have no probably sheeping me on both Berserker and Saber.
ah, I didn’t look at wagon comp at all.
I’m fine with yeeting any of my bottom 4 reads, I don’t have that strong of a preference for moon caster. I just feel like that slot has done nothing town at all and deserves more pressure at least.
In post 1136, Servant Lancer wrote:Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.
This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.
In post 1136, Servant Lancer wrote:Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.
This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.
I want to point out here that Berzerker is mentioned when giving the read on foreigner because they are confirmed town, correct?
Meaning that that view is genuine and there for should be listened to.
So if I am to flip town, where does this leave the read in your view? Given that my thoughts are equally as geniuen.
I mentioned Berserker because you took an action that explicitly undermined his views as town leader for what seems like a bad reason compared to the opportunity you had to gladiate saber who should be near-confirmed scum to you. I also trust his reads, but the main point here is that this action is inherently anti-town for opposing the town leader and forcing the elim like this.
I am still pretty sure Foreigner is town. I don't really think your alignment impacts my read. My scumread on you is entirely independent of your target.
In post 1220, Servant Lancer wrote:Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?
In post 1240, Servant Lancer wrote:like I said, I was super confused but I didn't really care about your claim enough to figure out what you were actually saying. because my plan, and berserker's plan, and literally the whole townbloc's plan, was to solve in moon cancer/saber.
In post 1220, Servant Lancer wrote:Now when you say moon cancer's posts are not scummy, can you explain specifically why you don't think moon cancer's read on alter is scummy?
Because there's nothing for me to really go by on it.
I just don't read Moon as scummy though.
I want you to comment on moon's read on alter. And why you don't think it's scummy.
I don't understand the read. Why would that make it scummy?
Be it, Moon is probably right with the read.
Moon cancer voted alter because he was getting "too townread" and then when asked for more reasons, referred everyone to their ISO, which only contained "Alter thinks too much and their reads have too much uncertainty" which is very much not how I would characterize Alter's posts. Explain why you think this is not scum-indicative.
Well it starts saying that Ego has too much uncertainty. That's different to just town read.
I'm not sure why I'd directly find this scummy rather than Null?
Just because someone has a reason which isn't great doesn't mean it's scummy. Otherwise foreigner's original scum read on me should be one the favoured. But yet, we're here.
so why is foreigner scummy but moon cancer isn't?
In post 1255, Servant Lancer wrote:I mean, you've gladiated foreigner and diverted an elim away from moon cancer so it stands to reason that you think moon cancer isn't scummy. You also literally said you're not scumreading moon cancer. So I'm asking you what the difference is between the two that leads to scumreading foreigner but not moon cancer. how is that a loaded question?
why is moon cancer elimbait but foreigner isn't?
do you think moon cancer's wagon was scum-driven or that there were 2 or more scum on it?
scum bus each other all the time. are you saying you'd never willingly vote with the bus on scum?
With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.
Foreigner (4): Avenger, Beast, Ruler, Moon Cancer
Saber (4): Alter Ego, Rider, Lancer, Archer
Moon Cancer (2): Foreigner, Saber
Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)
Page Usage: 7/42
foreigner seems to be the pretty clearly designated counterwagon to moon cancer (formed before the saber wagon)
saber's wagon should be all town here. moon cancer and shielder joined later.
In post 1599, Servant Lancer wrote:I'm not super confident that saber will flip scum either, but I highly prefer saber elim over foreigner. Foreigner appeared to be the designated scum counterwagon, and shouldn't be on the table after moon cancer scumflip.
In post 1608, Servant Beast wrote:As for foreigner, I've just looked at their posts and I find it odd how evenly distributed their addresses to other players are, the general lack of nuance and a confidence that doesn't make sense to me.
This is the only thing you've said that actually describes why you scumread Foreigner
In post 1616, Servant Lancer wrote:a large part of it is foreigner being wagoned as moon cancer was getting wagoned
the ISO is honestly not as towny as I thought, but I still think that foreigner being the counterwagon to moon cancer means it's unlikely that foreigner also flips scum. I don't really think it makes much sense for moon cancer to jump onto a scum!foreigner counterwagon to themselves. Avenger and foreigner are 99.9999% not scum together, and Avenger voting foreigner while the moon cancer wagon was building and then gladiating foreigner when the moon cancer was building the second time is scum-indicative for avenger in my opinion. Foreigner was also low enough in the general readslists that I don't think he would be the designated deepwolf and decide to hardbus a scumbuddy who seems to be pretty powerful. On review I don't think this means Foreigner is 100% town, but I think I feel more comfortable eliminating saber. idk.
can you explain what you mean by timing and arguments after the flip? which infractions did you make that they didn't comment on, and why do you think that's AI?
I didn't quote every relevant post as I feel like people can just read through Lancer's iso if they're interested. But as far as I could tell, they were against both Saber and Foreigner wagons (or at the very least not very interested in them) after the Moon Cancer elimination, so I'm not a huge fan of their reasoning for suspecting me here.
I do think it's funny that Lancer calls the Saber wagon a counterwagon to Moon Cancer despite being one of the three players that moved off Moon Cancer to start the flashwagon. It kind of begs the question as to what was going through their mind when they voted Saber there in the first place.
In post 1656, Servant Lancer wrote:that was me. my ability is conditional on something so I didn't want to risk the condition failing on Berserker, and Ruler seemed like the obvious NK to me. Avenger was the only other person that I could be reasonably sure the condition would work on.
presumably the setup is balanced to account for clears.
literally zero votes on saber... why are you so worked up over people supposedly scumreading saber when there is no wagon?
In post 1480, Servant Lancer wrote:if you want me to try to explain how I read people, I will, but it sounds like you're going to tell me my methods are wrong so I don't think it's going to be very productive.
I've already mentioned my experience with mastina is very limited.
I saw several people voting avenger for "bad play" and " sub optimal plat" and nothing on how the gladiate choice was actually scum motivated away from trading 1 for 1 scum which is dumb play
why me and alter specifically out of those people?
we already talked about this when the gladiate happened. it occurred right as moon cancer was about to be eliminated so it looked like he was trying to save moon cancer, who we now know flipped scum.
In post 1136, Servant Lancer wrote:Foreigner is town. Berserker had them as town. Berserker had just announced that moon cancer was going to be his chosen first elim.
This gladiate is either the most anti-town shit you could have pulled, or just scum.
I want to point out here that Berzerker is mentioned when giving the read on foreigner because they are confirmed town, correct?
Meaning that that view is genuine and there for should be listened to.
So if I am to flip town, where does this leave the read in your view? Given that my thoughts are equally as geniuen.
I mentioned Berserker because you took an action that explicitly undermined his views as town leader for what seems like a bad reason compared to the opportunity you had to gladiate saber who should be near-confirmed scum to you. I also trust his reads, but the main point here is that this action is inherently anti-town for opposing the town leader and forcing the elim like this.
I am still pretty sure Foreigner is town. I don't really think your alignment impacts my read. My scumread on you is entirely independent of your target.
I also talked about how I could see avenger being town but wasn't going to vote for foreigner so my vote was going to avenger instead, because he (at the time) refused to remove the gladiate.
But its enough for you to figure out she was the one behind the slot?
I don't need to have played mafia games with her to recognize her writing style.
how do you believe this line of questioning and resulting information will be useful to you in figuring out my alignment? because right now it seems like you are pursuing this as if you're trying to "gotcha" me.
In post 1502, Servant Lancer wrote:right. would you like to explain how your scumread on me fits with me being the person to swing the wagon back to moon cancer?
mastina's writing style is incredibly distinctive. I've read a bunch of her posts in discussion and really don't need to have played mafia with her to recognize it.
But its enough for you to figure out she was the one behind the slot?
From her firsr post while I'm at it
Er, what? How is recognizing someone's posting style supposed to be scummy?
He’s trying to play the “gotcha” game as if I’ve been caught out in a lie because I said I haven’t played much with mastina but
somehow
recognized her writing immediately. His other reasons for scumreading me are voting avenger (which I’ve already attempted to engage him about and he ignored), and brings up my “positioning around alter” which does not make any sense (I also asked about this and was ignored).
Ruler slot has consistently had takes that I cannot wrap my head around - takes that are so wildly off from where I am. Their view of the game does not make sense to me. Usually when someone is town and I disagree with them, I can at least understand why they are taking the stances they are and where they’re coming from. One example is that Ruler saw Saber’s reasoning for master bid and then was like “yeah this makes sense why Saber wanted NP and why he said he wanted to use it immediately and that it was stronger than a full cop shot,” which is so so so far from where I am in the universe. It would be one thing if Ruler simply said something I disagreed with, but his stances are consistently so far out of the realm of logic to me that I don’t believe it’s town. Scumreading alter and me for pushing avenger, who clearly made a super anti-town play if he was town and derailed a wagon on literally flipped scum, and ignoring everything else about our play, and then adding “alter might just be someone I disagree with” but then “I dislike lancer’s position around alter” does not seem like it can come from town. What’s the difference between me and alter, other than that I’ve been pushing and questioning Ruler? Why is alter someone he “just disagrees with me” but I’m the one positioning around Alter? (Highly disagree with that characterization by the way! Alter called me town first, I do not have any “positioning” around him.)
Finally, when I suspected the slot was mastina, I was okay with not being able to vibe with any of her takes because that’s kind of par for the course on my reading her posts anyway. A second person in the same slot who makes actually no sense to me and whose thoughts I can’t see coming from town has to be more than just coincidence.
Looking back at the end of Day 1, Lancer seemed to at least think Ruler was suspicious enough to vote. However, they also claim they didn't pick Ruler because they seemed like the obvious NK, which doesn't really make much sense to me contextually, and I don't know how much I really believe that.
This isn't a slamdunk scumread or anything. I've just been having second doubts based on a lot of the content being posted on Page 94.
Nothing points to Avenger reading the message they received incorrectly. This is extraneous information and doesn't change the core of Lancer clearing themselves. That a confirmed town member received a message that confirmed that Lancer was town by the mod.
