House of the Dragon - Game Over!

[Andresvmb]

I would execute both GL and DW this game. Like for sure. At the very least, GL should not live until Endgame.

But see this is what I’m not understanding. Why would the Scum risk this by shooting Luke? If I’m Scum and I’m GuiltyLion, I would have been so hard against it. All anyone has to do is take a skim through the game and they’ll catch endless posts of you shading the slot aggressively, and then mysteriously shifting your attention onto another slot, with what is the most transparently bad explanation ever haha I mean I’m like convinced it’s a frame it’s so bad.

[Andresvmb]

1161 and 1193 are MORE bad. And then much later in the game, GL drops 2156 which is a total gem. Given the strength of the read expressed consistently when the choice of King was being made, I’m just flabbergasted that this comes out later in the same day. It’s totally unrealistic.

[Andresvmb]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

This can die.

Also, 1734 looks like classic distancing.

[Andresvmb]

But then 1892 is then maybe not SvS? I think we need to execute GL here, and then Johnny should probably die. That’s my take.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway, I’ll finish re-reading at some point today if I can, but I’ve read enough that I’m embarrassed I didn’t side more aggressively with Luke. There’s really no defending GuiltyLion here. I wish I could argue differently, but no chance.

[Titus]

Drap, can you post your team again? I'm still a bit ill, so I had some difficulty finding it in your ISO. I think you're likely wrong on Dwlee but I relate to the energy you have and the gamestate so I'd like to vote somewhere we agree.

[VP Baltar]

1161 and 1193 are MORE bad. And then much later in the game, GL drops 2156 which is a total gem. Given the strength of the read expressed consistently when the choice of King was being made, I’m just flabbergasted that this comes out later in the same day. It’s totally unrealistic.

Your posts made me go back and ISO GL and Luke in the supporters thread because I feel like a lot of their direct interactions were there as well.

I wish I had asked Luke why he got cold feet about GL toward mid-to-end of day. He said it was despite not liking GL's posting about LLD. I had started asking some questions there but it fell off my priority list because it was getting stretched out as a discussion. Kicking myself now.

I mean, maybe you're right on GL looking bad with the Luke interactions, but for me it's almost like "does scum really go THIS hard against a townie D1 and then flip them N1?" That's some very bad scum play if so. That flip made it inevitable that GL faces some level of a serious wagon today.

One other issue that's sticking in the back of my mind is the council questions you raised. Obviously scum want to target town on council so they can try to get their team on there. Luke seems like a weird person to take out if I'm scum thinking about the seats I want. So what's the deal there? Was Luke a safe kill? Maybe. Are scum in a good position in some of the other higher priority seats? That's what I'm being paranoid about.

I don't personally think GL flips scum here and that dwlee would be a much better yeet. I'm starting to think we might have to compromise though because I'm not sure either wagon has enough votes to make it over. I think I'll spend some time at some point this weekend closely reading the GL-Luke interactions to see if it changes anything for me.

[Titus]

I explicitly plan to compare Drap's list to those who elected Shea king and pushed MariaR.

[Titus]

That would be a good compromise as I feel Shea was picked because he was easier to manipulate due to a lack of self confidence.

[Datisi]

drapion's list:

Spoiler:

Alright I think I figured it out and I know who the exact team is.
It’s Unwnd (Johnny), Penguin Powers, Guilty Lion, VP Balter and Andres.

Andresmb

-Picks 2 of their mafia members for king guards that aren’t in the council and leaves the last 1 out of it that happens to be the specific one in my PT.
-I find it odd that this dude accuses me of defending Junko and Firebringer like I would blatantly do that, but thing is, they would and they technically are, everyone in the team is.

Unwnd

-Got bad vibes from them
-distancing from GuiltyLion by voting since VP is defending

PenguinPowers

-Says to vote out Shea and make Johnny the new king in the PT
-As soon as Mastina calls VP and GuiltyLion wolf in the PT, Penguin immediately jumps on them calling Mastina wolf for some reason, and all of a sudden Guilty and VP does the same thing elsewhere.

GuiltyLion

-Wolf read by Maria
-Speed Votes Dwlee to make King execute town.
-Has a weird mention of Penguin Power’s of thinking they can be wolf but I don’t see progression, it’s distancing.
-starts saying there can be wolf in the council due to Luke’s death however this isn’t wrong here they are just trying to redirect attention to Junko and Mastina.

VPBalter

-Got Bad Vibes from the dude since the start
-Wolf read by Maria and also Enchant has been pushing there as well
-Defends Guilty Lion
-Speed Votes Dwleee to make King execute town.


Does anyone remember if Luke Wolfread either Unwnd or Andres???

Here’s the plan, vote out Andres, vote me in as the new King Guards Leader and then vote Johnny out afterwards and vote in Furtive as the new prince and if I die tonight vote in Enchant as King Guard Leader instead of me.

VOTE: Andres

titus, i'm interested in what your stance on the game is right now. especially considering your characterization of gl/vp from earlier is like, very wrong

[Titus]

Thanks. My stance on the game is something I am developing now looking at the data plus what I know of personalities. Shea is not a hero type personality, yet he kingmakes an elimination from someone at L minus 1 despite claiming he's not good at town early.

This leaves two likely possibilities:

1) Shea and Dwlee are scum together and Shea uses his attitude to hide this fact. Unlikely but possible.

2) Shea is being pumped up to make hero shots. This benefits scum regardless of Dwlee's alignment. If Dwlee is town, they've saved a miselimination for later. If he's scum, they protect him. Shea would be targeted due to his low self confidence post in this scenario.

Now time to check votes.

[Titus]

*two most likely possibilities

[Andresvmb]

1161 and 1193 are MORE bad. And then much later in the game, GL drops 2156 which is a total gem. Given the strength of the read expressed consistently when the choice of King was being made, I’m just flabbergasted that this comes out later in the same day. It’s totally unrealistic.

Your posts made me go back and ISO GL and Luke in the supporters thread because I feel like a lot of their direct interactions were there as well.

I wish I had asked Luke why he got cold feet about GL toward mid-to-end of day. He said it was despite not liking GL's posting about LLD. I had started asking some questions there but it fell off my priority list because it was getting stretched out as a discussion. Kicking myself now.

I mean, maybe you're right on GL looking bad with the Luke interactions, but for me it's almost like "does scum really go THIS hard against a townie D1 and then flip them N1?" That's some very bad scum play if so. That flip made it inevitable that GL faces some level of a serious wagon today.

One other issue that's sticking in the back of my mind is the council questions you raised. Obviously scum want to target town on council so they can try to get their team on there. Luke seems like a weird person to take out if I'm scum thinking about the seats I want. So what's the deal there? Was Luke a safe kill? Maybe. Are scum in a good position in some of the other higher priority seats? That's what I'm being paranoid about.

I don't personally think GL flips scum here and that dwlee would be a much better yeet. I'm starting to think we might have to compromise though because I'm not sure either wagon has enough votes to make it over. I think I'll spend some time at some point this weekend closely reading the GL-Luke interactions to see if it changes anything for me.

Honestly, that’s where I’m getting stuck. I never would have executed Lukewarm if I’m GL and I’m Scum. But if you think Luke overall will become more influential over time, and they have good views, maybe you do it? It’s just an almost blatant frame job but I can’t say that I love GL’s takes either I mean haha there’s so much there to criticize. It’s not just the take on Luke. Though it did evolve. Look if the day had ended around post ~1,600, I would say kill GL with prejudice. But it didn’t, and GL did shift their read there. I remember reading the explanation once and thinking c’mon now. But I will have to keep reading.

I’ll switch back for now.

VOTE: DW

[Titus]

GuiltyLion and VP being targeted for elimination when they were two other king choices is also telling which suggests scum don't want vocal voices to change directions.

[Titus]

Thestatusquo [7]: Bellaphant, Dannflor, GuiltyLion, Junkochan, Unowen, VP Baltar, Andresvmb

These were the Shea voters. According to the VCs, only Unowen and VP were on MariaR. Given gamestate, my second choice is Unowen.

[Titus]

Out of Drap's list, I could vote Andres or unwnd. PP's trajectory (assuming he has it right) doesn't match with what I feel scum's motivation is. GL and VP are out. So yeah...Andres or unwnd.

[Andresvmb]

Out of Drap's list, I could vote Andres or unwnd. PP's trajectory (assuming he has it right) doesn't match with what I feel scum's motivation is. GL and VP are out. So yeah...Andres or unwnd.

Titus this I think is like the third consecutive game in a row where you’ve read me wrong, though in one you were Scum so you had reason to read me wrong. What is it that I’m doing that is constantly leading us here? Because if I’m not wrong, we’ve played together multiple times and each time, I was Town.

[Andresvmb]

Like I want to understand what it is that always leads to here. What are you interested in me answering directly that you think could help you get a sense for what my alignment is?

[Titus]

If you consistently play in a manner that leads you to help scum, I'll SR you. I'm not perfect in that regard as it does lead to a bit of omgus or scumreading a townbeard. I'm not as invested yet (illness and holidays) so my individual reads aren't as strong.

[ProfessorDrapion]

A few other takes - Titus is Town. They had a lot of good early takes. My view was silly.

Firebringer should certainly be scrutinized for 1244, 1253 (which I wrote was entirely silly), 1255, 1363. Lukewarm flipping Town doesn’t just make GuiltyLion look bad.

Rhaenyra’s early collection of takes (see 969) I’m almost sure is way off, and makes me truly question my read of that slot. I didn’t find unwnd upon re-read to be Towny, so I’m almost sure the Council has been way infiltrated. I don’t know for certain, but I would be AMAZED if the Council was pure.

Oh and furtiveglance is Town. Almost sure of that one.

Bro I swear to god if you are wolf are just planning to steal my town reads and night kill me?
I swear like if you also say Enchant is town that’s all my 3. (Furtive, Enchant and Titus.)

VOTE: GuiltyLion

This can die.

Also, 1734 looks like classic distancing.

Don’t clear this if Dwlee is Town and GL is Wolf.
This can be a Buss if the above is correct.

[ProfessorDrapion]

GuiltyLion and VP being targeted for elimination when they were two other king choices is also telling which suggests scum don't want vocal voices to change directions.

Out of Drap's list, I could vote Andres or unwnd. PP's trajectory (assuming he has it right) doesn't match with what I feel scum's motivation is. GL and VP are out. So yeah...Andres or unwnd.

GuiltyLion and VP being targeted for elimination when they were two other king choices is also telling which suggests scum don't want vocal voices to change directions.

Or wolves were gonna get king but we prevented it.

If you look at the Junko Slot the wagon ended fairly quickly which theoretically can point to them being more town compared to any of the other king wagons.
However, Junko Slot is town for varies of other reasons.

GuiltyLion and VP being targeted for elimination when they were two other king choices is also telling which suggests scum don't want vocal voices to change directions.

Out of Drap's list, I could vote Andres or unwnd. PP's trajectory (assuming he has it right) doesn't match with what I feel scum's motivation is. GL and VP are out. So yeah...Andres or unwnd.

See you seem to be on similar level to that of Datisi.
They also townread both VP and GL and in full honesty I’m not completely sure why they so confidently townread them so could you do what I did and use pinpoints to explain why you read them the way you do?

[Andresvmb]

You as Scum in Datisi’s Café: viewtopic.php?p=13503594#p13503594
You as Scum in Flash Games (I was replaced for inactivity so maybe easy to hide behind): viewtopic.php?p=13371251#p13371251
You as Town in kTaNe: viewtopic.php?p=13311467#p13311467
You as Town in 2238: viewtopic.php?p=13023714#p13023714

I was Town in all those games. Like you have a permanent Scum Read of my slot. And it’s bizarre.

[Andresvmb]

If you consistently play in a manner that leads you to help scum, I'll SR you. I'm not perfect in that regard as it does lead to a bit of omgus or scumreading a townbeard. I'm not as invested yet (illness and holidays) so my individual reads aren't as strong.

Okay I mean if this is going to be your argument, then I don’t know what to tell you. If you’re going to argue well Andrés you’re a bad player so I always SR you, then I’m not sure what it is you want me to say. I don’t agree that I’m a terrible player. And if you’re going to hide behind that, then I suggest that everyone just ignore your read because you SR me regardless of alignment and don’t seem to care to get me right.

[Andresvmb]

I’ll leave to others to conclude whether I constantly play in ways that help Scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

i'm sick =(