NewbScum Greeting Tell

[Ramcius]

I'll teach you math - 20/46 is ~43%. Is it really a scumtell?

[Ramcius]

If it's significantly different from town %, yes.

Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players

[Ramcius]

If it's significantly different from town %, yes.

Sure, it's simple math, 57% of greetings came from town players

Bayesian:

P(X is scum | X did a greet) = P(X did a greet | X is scum) * P(X is scum) / P(X did a greet)

= (20 / 35) * (2 / 9) / (46 / 135)

~= 37%, compared to a baseline 2/9 of ~22%. (I'm not sure where TTTT's 71%/28% is coming from?)

Most scumtells are going to come more often from town players than scum players, due to a combination of their not-100% reliability and the fact that most players are simply town; it can still be a valid scumtell.

What this formula shows?

TTTT is bad at math, it supposed to be 22 and 78 I guess

[Ramcius]

Does that mean that there's 37% chance for greeting to come from scum?

And if yes, can I see formula for town? It should be 63% then

If no, then what this 37% indicates?

[Ramcius]

Does that mean that there's 37% chance for greeting to come from scum?

It means that if someone makes a greeting, and you have no other information (other than that they're playing a 2:7 game with randomly assigned roles), they have a 37% chance of being scum and a 63% chance of being town.

(26/100)*(7/9)/(46/135) gives me 59%, not 63%

Why X/(X+Y) is wrong? Where X is scum greetings and Y is town greetings

[Ramcius]

Hm, good point about newbies scum percentage, I believe Implosions formula is incomplete then, it doesn't take into consideration SE slots and possibly replacements

Also, am I only one, who had hard time with probabilities in school?

[Ramcius]

Even RC was nice and innocent eons ago, wow

[Ramcius]

PS a "true" bayesian analysis would involve both a prior and a posterior distribution getting some kind of semi-arbitrary mutual weighting. Presumably the prior would be 2/9 = 22.2% (odds of a player randing wolf, also essentially the null hypothesis of the tell being meaningless), and then the weighting is based on w/e you think is appropriate, and I'm much, much, MUCH too lazy to even attempt to lay out the logic involved in that decision making process
(but tldr the "true" answer is "something less than 43.5%, and it's somewhat arbitrary exactly how much closer you get to 22.% vs 43.5%")

Percentage being much higher than 22% makes sense, if you consider psychological aspect - scum players are under much more pressure and first impression is important. Therefore coming in with a greeting is less hostile and more likely to earn some sympathy. On other hand town want jump in and hunt scum, so they often skip greeting