Charisma Model of EV Calculation

[RadiantCowbells]

Credit to my conversation with RadiantCowbells for inspiring this methodology.

I feel like you're undercrediting me here, particularly given that you said that you're proposing and demonstrating.

[RadiantCowbells]

Like others can weigh in, maybe I'm overly touchy, but it's not at all the impression I think that I would get reading it that you're presenting to the general public something I made years ago and have been using for years.
The phrasing "inspiring this methodology" implies that I like said something that helped you along the way as opposed to it literally being something I told you about.

[RadiantCowbells]

Step 2 for setups like lovers nightless requires actually sorting out individual players willingness to vote and realizing that every single player has to vote scum together to win. Same reason that naively LyLo EV in 3 way should be closer to 1/4 than 1/3; the scum who is willing to instahammer anyone has higher odds of getting the win because both of the other townies have to be right to win whereas only one has to be wrong for him to win.

These voting mechanics matter significantly more with larger town to scum ratio such as lylo whereas they don't really influence the early game.

[RadiantCowbells]

i do feel like the model is flawed in games where scum have specific motivations to defend each other like that that put all of scum's performances a little closer to the mean

[RadiantCowbells]

People have a strange tendency, no matter how poor their read record, to consider their own read on a player to be the single most important tool to determine whether to vote them or not