Just like the simulations

[Isis]

Can you do this one? I have a little trouble visualizing it because of the weirdness with the factional NK rolestopping and the roleblock also rolestopping, by the way the fae-pass ability is defined. So I'm not sure what the EV is.

[Isis]

45% would be pretty ok.
"If the favoured townie is outed, they will always be roleblocked and scum will never miss a kill": the Favoured player has eliminationproof, not bulletproof, did you sim it with bulletproof? That might change the EV a lot. Eliminationproof naturally doesn't change the EV at all, it's just a quality of life thing.
Giving the fae player bulletproof is something I thought about but I think it might skew the dayplay an awful lot in town's favour.

[Isis]

Fixed! That does change things a lot, I think because the favoured townie just kind dies sometimes and then town is in something like a 10:3 ratio with no help.

It only becomes 10:3 mountainous if the mafia perfectly kills the Fae-touched player N2 and roleblocks the player that they attempted to pass the faeries to. Simply killing the player holding the faeries doesn't stop the chain of conftown.

Well if the faerie player is forced to claim D2 they can roleblock the faerie player and kill them (or if they have a really confident read on it and do that in the night). But that's still not 10:3 mountainous it's 10:3 with 1 activated IC at least.

35% might be a smidge low D:

[Isis]

That would just make the chance of mountainous higher, right?

[Isis]

I appreciate the sim I think it tells me the setup has a problem

[Isis]

Actually maybe I should just use the BP version since it is 45%?

Can you sim it with BP and the roleblock has no rolestopping effect (but the kill does)?

[Isis]

It was both in one ^^

[Isis]

I suspect that's too high of an EV. But I very much appreciate this

[Isis]

Ok there's a dumb showerthought I was having today

In a setup like Goon Goon Doctor VTx6 you definitely ask for claims at E-1 and if someone claims Doctor and there's no counterclaim then you vote elsewhere.

At what point does the power role becomes powerful enough that it's no longer correct to ask for a claim, because it's not worth it to ask for a counterclaim either, because the role is so powerful if it stays hidden?

So like
3 Mafia Goon
1 Publishing Cop
9 VT

For both strategies: the PR crumbs results each day, claims role and all results at ELo -1 when it can't be counterclaimed.
For strategy A: When someone is run up to E1, on Day 1 only, that player claims if they are a cop, then nobody counterclaims, someone else is eliminated, they are NKed that night and only get one result out. If that player is mafia, the claim, the real cop counterclaims, and the mafia is eliminated and the cop gets NKed.
For strategy B: When someone is run up to E1 on Day1 they lay down and die.

Follow up question, does this vary with the number of VTs, can strategy A dominate when the expected number of publishes gets lower, but strategy B dominate when there are more players and it's more likely that the cop can do more work if they don't have to out themselves counterclaiming.

[Isis]

maybe this is a dumb question because it's a false dilemma because you can get a claim D1 and just decide you're not sure if it's true and handle it later, neither eliminating it nor polling for a counterclaim for it.

my understanding of PR setups is consistently weak

[Isis]

I think I got caught in a false dilemma, and the idea of not collecting the counterclaim is the stronger possible thought, and while the counterclaim is pending you do have some degrees of freedom to just vote outside of the player who claimed.