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Post #0 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:24 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
Since I first joined the site I've gotten pretty good at this whole coding thing. A couple times since I've been back I've found it useful to run a simulation to understand something about a setup as it's a lot easier than actually doing math. This includes more difficult EV calculations, but also things like probability of different role combinations in semi open setups.
So, if there is something you want to know about a setup, request a simulation and I will do it for you. I am trusting you all to not break ongoing games rules.
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Post #4 (isolation #2) » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:23 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
Fixed! That does change things a lot, I think because the favoured townie just kind dies sometimes and then town is in something like a 10:3 ratio with no help.
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Post #6 (isolation #3) » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:46 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
What if you remove the roleblock and make it so that a kill leads to no pass? Then town at least isn't randomly unable to pass sometimes, but they are still punished if the favoured is outed. Maybe that is actually worse though?
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Post #8 (isolation #4) » Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:57 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
I think a lot of the time that the favoured is killed they are also RB'd because they were outed during the day. But in the cases where they are randomly killed that is really bad
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Post #14 (isolation #7) » Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:17 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
With this method you end up with 49457/100000 town wins, so an EV of about 49.5%. Not sure if that is too townsided as the favoured townie is also basically getting cop investigations now that are unaccounted for. That is one problem with the bulletproof.
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Post #19 (isolation #9) » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:09 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
It's possible, though probably that's the sort of thing EV/simulations do a bad job of capturing. If it's a closed setup you can send me pm and I'll let you if it seems feasible
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Post #38 (isolation #17) » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:07 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
I will have to think about how to do this one, as it's not clear when the game "ends." There's also a ton of abilities, so I'm not sure if random usage of them will really capture the setup well. But I can give it a shot this weekend.
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Post #43 (isolation #18) » Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:43 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
This is a fun one, I will make a plot. 31-2 is only ~60% town win according to the EV project, which is surprising at first but also makes sense. 98-2 mountainous viable?
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Post #44 (isolation #19) » Wed Nov 18, 2020 11:13 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
The numbers may be hard to see depending on your theme, if so you may need to download the figure. The x axis is the number of town players and the y axis is town win %
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Post #46 (isolation #20) » Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:01 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
I'm sure there is some smart person like implosion or Ircher who knows or could figure out the exact formula. This is the relationship you'd expect though because at very high numbers of townies adding a single townie doesn't really do much to change the odds of hitting scum. Compared to lower numbers where obviously there is a big difference between 7:2 and 9:2.
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Post #53 (isolation #22) » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:37 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
So basically, you prevent the mafia from being able to fake claim to out the cop.
This is an interesting question. Is counter claiming immediately ever actually the best strategy when you could instead just wait and see if the cop claim dies? I wonder if the general strategy in open setups should be to never counterclaim until elo.
pedit yeah I don't think people actually do that though. Also a 1:1 trade is kinda what you hope to get out of a PR (IMO)