More Important: Day 2 or Day 3?

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callforjudgement
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Post Post #12 (isolation #0) » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:36 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Thinking back on the games I've played, most of the time I've won as town it was a consequence of what happened on D1 (this isn't to say that you can necessarily figure out a lot about the game
on
D1 – although sometimes you can! – but that the information from D1 is often what goes on to help you solve the game on future days). A few years ago, a long-standing player (I forget which) observed that when Mafiascum towns win, it was typically a consequence of a really high-information D1 elimination which gave a lot of insight into the motivations of the various people on the various wagons (even though much of the time, it was a townie who actually got eliminated).

I think it's worth noting that as the game goes on, optimal town strategy and optimal scum strategy become closer to each other (in an extreme case, imagine a 2:1 ending with one player confirmed: the unconfirmed townie and the scum will be doing everything they can to get each other eliminated, so the townie's play and the scum's play should be indistinguishable by that point because they both have identical motivations and the situation is entirely symmetrical). In fact, you can probably make a reasonable argument that the more information that town has, the harder scumhunting becomes, because one of the main scumhunting tools is trying to work out who has more information than they should.

My gut reaction to the question, though, was "the most important day is the day on which lots of players become claimed and people start to get a good handle on what the setup actually is" (this applies primarily to Closed games, of course). Games where town are forced into claiming early often go south quite quickly, for example. Days like that are also a gold mine for gathering reactions, and days
after
that become much less useful for scumhunting because the optimal strategy for each faction becomes a lot more obvious. And of course, it's also the day when you get your "setup speculation hints" (i.e. players who are highly likely to be town, or scum, on the basis of what people have been claiming; this is pretty much an inevitability in Closed setups, and is something that reviewers take into account when balancing games as part of the town's power budget).
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town
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callforjudgement
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Post Post #13 (isolation #1) » Mon Feb 15, 2021 5:46 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

It's probably also worth posting the following, the strongest town performance I've ever been part of:
In post 2816, Magua wrote:Game breaking: Although I'm obviously biased, I don't believe that the game was broken via the transfers. As I say in the Dead QT, I believe that the Mafia could have won every single auction in the game, and still lost. The plan of transferring would've backfired disastrously if the Mafia had had 2 (or perhaps even 1) person in the "receiving money" column. However, that wasn't the case here. All of the Mafia were identified as not-Town D1, and none of them were ever able to shake that suspicion. That was incredibly surprising to me.

Here's SlumberPartyBois' #696, color coded appropriately.
In post 696, SlumberPartyBois wrote:HERE ARE THE PEOPLE I WANT TO TRANSFER THEIR MONEY TO OTHER PLAYERS:
  • ELMO

    GREYICE

    GUILLE

    VOIDEDMAFIA

    PITTY

    EIDOLIN

    PHILAMMON

    SEANALD
If I did not list you, you are a town read (other than Defender who is dying).

We can force players that are not town reads to transfer their money. If they don't it's a scumclaim. Sure, scum won't have to transfer everything but they will have to transfer the amount that they would have as town, which fucks them over. THIS IS HOW WE BREAK THIS GAME. IF ALL NON-TOWN READS AGREE TO THIS, EVEN IF THEY ARE ACTUALLY TOWN, FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE GROUP, WE WIN.

If I did not list you you are a town read of mine. This includes:
  • BBmolla
    (at least he's not scum)
    Mehdi

    Stefan

    Peregrine

    Tazaro

    greygnarl

    Tammy

    Salamence

    Gentlemen Bastards
Mafia was not helped that callforjudgement was able to completely dismantle the wagon that had been building up on Elmo TeH AzN, but, again I don't think it would've mattered.
It was a 14:6 setup. Day 1, town managed to dayvig one scum, and form a townbloc of 10 (!) of the townies. It was one of my best town games ever, and yet my play was entirely irrelevant; town had figured out so much on D1 (before I even replaced in) that even if I'd outright tried to gamethrow, they would have resoundingly won anyway.

If anyone tries to tell you that it's impossible to form useful reads D1, ignore them. It's definitely doable, and it's definitely happened.
scum
· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
town

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