PRACTICE: Votecount Analysis

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Irrelephant11
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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 09, 2022 2:33 pm

In post 24, Ausuka wrote:Help and octopus

fully correct! new one tomorrow later

edit: link to game
Last edited by Irrelephant11 on Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:03 pm

Round 4There’s 1 remaining mafia

Spoiler: day 1 early votecount
[3] Bard: Ranger, Warlock, Druid

[2] Druid: Cleric, Bard

[2] Warlock: Paladin, Rogue

[2] Not voting: Fighter, Barbarian

With 9 alive, 5 votes to eliminate

Spoiler: day 1 final votecount
[5] Druid: Cleric, Barbarian, Warlock, Bard, Rogue <--- HAMMER

[3] Warlock: Paladin, Fighter, Druid

[1] Barbarian: Ranger

Not voting: No one

With 9 alive, 5 votes to eliminate

Spoiler: day 2 early votecount
[2] Cleric: Fighter, Ranger

[1] Barbarian: Rogue

[1] Ranger: Barbarian

[1] Rogue: Bard

[2] Not voting: Cleric, Warlock

With 7 alive, 4 votes to eliminate

Spoiler: day 2 final votecount
[4] Warlock: Barbarian, Cleric, Fighter, Bard <--- HAMMER

[2] Rogue: Warlock, Ranger

[1] Barbarian: Rogue

Not voting: No one

With 7 alive, 4 votes to eliminate
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

Datisi
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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:10 pm

Spoiler: official guess
cleric

Spoiler: musings that are probably way off
i feel like it's either cleric if scum is half-decent or bard if they're nooby
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.” ~M

Menalque
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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 1:36 pm

Spoiler:
rogue, if not rogue then ranger
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."

Ausuka
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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 3:14 pm

I'm on team bard

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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 5:57 pm

Spoiler: Analysis
Day 1, I was thinking Barbarian, but had Barbarian left on Day 2, Rogue could have been eliminated instead of Warlock. Cleric, Rogue, and Bard all look like possible answers. Rogue was on Warlock Day 1 until more joined, but that could just be unlucky town. Warlock is on Rogue during Day 2, but Rogue is off. In that situation, it would make sense to bus as Rogue, but this one's hard for sure. I wanna say Rogue is just town.

Cleric and Bard both have chances, but Cleric being earlier on day 2 warlock has me lean Bard for bussing, but in a way where they felt they had to rather than wanted to.


Spoiler: Guess
Bard
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Aristeia
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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:08 pm

Spoiler: Guess
Cleric

MathBlade
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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:59 pm

Spoiler: guess
bard
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:52 am

been sick, will return :]

The right answer was
Spoiler:
cleric
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

NashedPotato
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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 20, 2022 10:38 pm

My guess is
Spoiler:
cleric.


Definitely didn't wait for the right answer wdym
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Datisi
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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:38 pm

hehehehehhehehehehhehe
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.” ~M

Aristeia
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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:18 pm

i totally didn't just sheep Dats ^^

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:10 pm

y'all this is very embarrassing I cannot find the newbie game that the last round was based on

you'll just have to trust me ig
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:22 pm

round the next1 mafia left

Spoiler: day 1 final
Pow (5): Splash, Boom, Crash, Bang, Tink [HAMMERED]
Squeak (1): Blorp
Splash (1): Tink
Crash (1): Pow
Not Voting (1): Squeak

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to reach a majority.


Spoiler: day 2 final
Bang (4): Boom, Splash, Blorp, Tink [HAMMERED]
Tink (1): Bang
Blorp (1): Crash
Not Voting (1): Squeak

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to reach a majority.


Spoiler: day 3 final
Tink (3): Splash, Blorp, Tink [HAMMERED]
Not Voting (2): Squeak, Boom

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to reach a majority.
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

Irrelephant11
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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:23 pm

My takeaway so far is datisi and ausuka are pretty good at this, on average. If they were both in a game and agreed on a vca case on someone, I'd sheep it
Hey all! Excited and nervous to play my first game with you!

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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:24 pm

Spoiler:
im gonna say squeak
Last edited by schadd_ on Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Aristeia
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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:30 pm

Spoiler: guess
Blorp?

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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:59 pm

Spoiler:
boom
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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:59 pm

Spoiler: guess
Squeak looks like lurker scum and Tink had a guilty on them.
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade

skitter30
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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:00 pm

Spoiler:
boom
Squeak would be my second guess
Show

Ausuka
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Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:05 am

Spoiler:
Going with Squeak I guess

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Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:32 am

In post 38, Irrelephant11 wrote:Splash, Boom, Crash, Bang, Tink

the sound of my heart
mnemonic for you: Toni Morrison Made Comprehensive Dialogues Despite Nearby Hordes of Reactionaries that are Verily Contemptible
todays featured user: shaft.ed

this year, i plan to exclusively listen to music released in 2022. send me things that are like that!

Datisi
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Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 23, 2022 5:15 am

guess i'm making before seeing anyone else's:
Spoiler:
i think it's blorp

boom is unlikely due to the fact they were at the front of two misyeet wagons (and scum is generally more self-conscious than that, AND i'm not sure why tink would be hammering if their buddy was driving the wagons), and squeak ending all three days by not voting is odd for a buddy, especially if tink was about to get caught. i feel like squeak!scum would've been pushing other townies on d1 and d2, and be on the front of the bus on d3.

blorp also fits with the above idea - on d1 there was a wagon on a townie, blorp ended the day voting a different townie. and i feel like they'd be trying to earn towncred by bussing on d3.


In post 39, Irrelephant11 wrote:My takeaway so far is datisi and ausuka are pretty good at this, on average. If they were both in a game and agreed on a vca case on someone, I'd sheep it

interestingly enough, i never use vca in games. or rather, never use further than "idk this wagon feels kinda bad". i've rarely actually gotten good results from vca in game.

something that i have been thinking about for a while (which also sorta applies to replacements in a game) is whether it's better to make decisions with limited information than with "all" information available.
I will straight up disregard all reason if you have a PR dream again. You can come back and be like, “I dreamt that Locke is a N2 Bulletproof Multitasking Cop and Self-Targeting Doctor,” and I will go, “Okay, Locke kill it is then.” ~M

Menalque
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Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 23, 2022 7:05 am

Spoiler:
blorp
"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."

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Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Thu Jun 23, 2022 8:56 pm

In post 47, Datisi wrote:guess i'm making before seeing anyone else's:
Spoiler:
i think it's blorp

boom is unlikely due to the fact they were at the front of two misyeet wagons (and scum is generally more self-conscious than that, AND i'm not sure why tink would be hammering if their buddy was driving the wagons), and squeak ending all three days by not voting is odd for a buddy, especially if tink was about to get caught. i feel like squeak!scum would've been pushing other townies on d1 and d2, and be on the front of the bus on d3.

blorp also fits with the above idea - on d1 there was a wagon on a townie, blorp ended the day voting a different townie. and i feel like they'd be trying to earn towncred by bussing on d3.


In post 39, Irrelephant11 wrote:My takeaway so far is datisi and ausuka are pretty good at this, on average. If they were both in a game and agreed on a vca case on someone, I'd sheep it

interestingly enough, i never use vca in games. or rather, never use further than "idk this wagon feels kinda bad". i've rarely actually gotten good results from vca in game.

something that i have been thinking about for a while (which also sorta applies to replacements in a game) is whether it's better to make decisions with limited information than with "all" information available.


This is a good mentality

Votes only act as a history

They can give you an idea to read but aren’t everything
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
GTKAS -- MathBlade

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