VCA Stats

[Lowercase]

If you do the calculations, 92% is only 3% higher than the expected percentage of town lynches with scum on them. Even if this were significant, the difference is far too small to be useful in scumhunting.

However, in the scum lynches, the first two slots were always town. Though the sample size in this case is only 16, this is still about 92% significant and common sense would imply that the trend is real. About 44% of these lynches had scum on them, which is close to what is expected if scum avoid the first two slots but have no preference otherwise. This probably isn't much use since after a correct day one lynch, town PR's tend to clean up anyway.

Do you have any stats for stuff like counter wagons, OMGUS, not voting, or self-voting?

[Lowercase]

33% of town lynches have both mafia on the wagon.

Unless I messed up, the expected value for random voting (assuming no self-votes) is that about 35% of town wagons have both scum on them. The take away here seems to be that wagon analysis on town lynches in newbies on D1 is completely uninformative if you only consider wagon participation.

[Lowercase]

My calculations for at least 1 scum on wagon is (6*5*4 + 3*6*5*2)/(8*7*6) = .89. Slightly more significant, but even if it were exact it is too weak to draw a meaningful conclusion in-game.
p-edit: I actually counted myself, though I could be wrong. Looked like 50 town lynches with 6 no-mafia town lynches. Either way, it is incredibly close to random. Also, the random chance of lynching scum is about 22% compared to this sample which has about 24% scum lynches. I'm forced to conclude that everyone sucks at mafia and we should just be rolling dice and discussing whose number is better.
edit: Oh yeah, 6/50 = .12. So the real percentage for >1 mafia on wagon is 88%.

[Lowercase]

If the relative replacement frequencies for scum vs town hold for just day one (they probably don't), a PL on a newbie replacement has about a 28% chance to hit scum. I don't know whether it's worse to replace early or late, but it does seem you would probably be better off if you PL'd newb replaces.

There's also the added bonus that you are unlikely to lynch a cop, tracker or BP.

[Lowercase]

On an unrelated note, I'm surprised how often BP's get lynched. Seems like it would never be a good idea to lynch a BP without a counter.

[Lowercase]

Sure, but these were day one. 75% of the time a BP-fakeclaim is counterable even in a goons setup. While it's possible for it to be a fakeclaim, you are more likely to lynch correctly if you target someone else.

A cop might not counter, in this case; but assuming he claims before lylo, the BP-claimer is a dead man walking.

edit: Actually now that I think of it, I guess the BP is more likely to be scum than a random lynch if mafia always fake-claims BP in a goons setup.

[Lowercase]

I cannot find the total number of town lynches or the percentage of town lynches and I took a wrong percentage instead.

I count 50 town lynches and 6 without scum on them. So 88% of town lynches have at least one scum vs 89% expected by chance.

[Lowercase]

I guess, but the statistics we have imply that a day one wagon on town in matrix6 is not informative. There may be a relation on later days, i.e. scum are more likely to be on/off wagon both times or sth; but I doubt that is the case and even if it is informative it's not clear how informative it is.

If the D2 wagon is similarly random, then VCA is basically just making arbitrary groupings and divining scum from it.

In larger games there may be some basis to VCA, but I'm not sure why that would be the case.

[Lowercase]

Well sure, the manner in which someone votes is definitely relevant. I was thinking stuff like the scumputer, and methods that take into account mostly wagon participation.

p-edit: What it means is that if I say {A,B,X,Y,Z} were on the wagon so one is probably scum, that is no more useful than saying {A,B,C,D,E} are the first players alphabetically so one is probably scum. Sure, I''d be right most of the time, but I'd just be hiding a meaningless statement behind a veneer of statistical insight.

Btw, I will not lynch outside of {A,B} today; let's not have another day 1.