Vigilante tactics

[Adel]

I love Vigilante discussions. For some reason there's always so much more sketchy pseudo-math involved in the arguments.

I'll address some of them later if I remember. But to clarify:

Pie, I am

not

saying that in general a vig kill is slightly better than a lynch. I am saying that in the specific case of random vig kill vs. random lynches with no power roles it is better.

I am still waiting with

real

anticipation and interest. I hope you find time to write out your analysis.

My read on vigs is- killing more is better, usually. Vigging at random with the game's start is gambling , so it mostly serves to make the game more "swingy" (a term I've grown to love) and each vig has to decide whether she is a gambler or not.
For game balance I mostly consider a Vig to serve as a randomness amplifier.

I suspect that a crunchy mathematically sound analysis that for a "typical" mini normal (day-start. 3 scum, 1 cop, 1 vig) the odds are

slightly

better for the vig if she kills each and every night. Do you my hunch is correct? Do you know how to approach the problem mathematically? I do not, but I would love to try to understand the correct proof.

Obviously I love pseudo-math, but I also really appreciate the accurate flavours of mathematics.

[Adel]

Yes, but the vigilante kill only screws with the element of time negligibly. It's not like every vigilante kill deprives the town of a lynch; in fact, the odds under 1/2 that any given kill will.

Only slightly under 1/2(most games end up with just one killing group) and the expected return of an informed lynch is a hell of a lot higher than the expected return of a random vig kill.

Kindly provide a proof, please. I suspect your claim, sir.

(a sincere request, hidden in a dry joking tone)

[Adel]

I think it would be equally a shame for the vig to die without using its power as it would for a cop to die without using its power.

What is the opposite of "QFT"?

Regardless, I do not agree with Tamuz.

Put almost any player into a game with both vig and cop abilities and the number of times he uuses his cop power will almost always be greater than or equal to the number of times he will choose to use his vg ability. If he could choose one of the two powers at the beginning of the game, cop should be the correct choice.

[Adel]

... but I know that he will do the right thing when he is a vig. Which makes him a good guy.

[Adel]

yeah, beginners dieing quickly in a game they just started playing would be a tragedy. That should not be allowed to happen.