The Big Bang Effect

[St Constantine the Hermit]

Big Bang Effect

When people are so eager to prove that their position is correct, that they legitimize a theory that brings up more questions than it answers. Like the Big Bang Theory, something that is in many people's opinions, built on more assumption than evidence.

What I am talking about here, is when you have a game where some townie creates a crazy theory that continues to justify their scumread, and other townies that shared the scumread are unwilling to look beyond the fact that this new theory creates more questions than it answers, and provides more assumptions than it does evidence.

Like I said, the Big Bang Effect happens out of stubbornness. Everytime I have been in a town which is keen on doing this, the theory ended up being wrong. Everytime I have done this myself, the theory ended up being wrong.

Solution:

Stop making elaborate theories to justify your scumreads!

[St Constantine the Hermit]

Is this whole thing just a means to casually float pseudoscience?

No, but relying on empirical evidence is much better than relying on assumption in all cases of life. Mafia too, where empirical evidence is stuff you can actually see in the thread; using this as opposed to some crazy theory built on a thousand assumptions.

It is something that town does that is seriously annoying, because they are acting so incredibly stubborn that you cannot possibly appeal to them to look for a more common sense solution, or to at least stop overthinking everything. I used to do it more than anyone, but I learned from my mistakes.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

Are you real.

Let's not get too philosophical about this. If I were to go into that territory, I would say yes, because...

1) I think I am real
2) I can observe myself

That is going to into it though. I am just not liking how much town will overthink things, or will be so incredibly stubborn that they will create an elaborate theory for why they are still correct.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

*Sigh*

This thread got derailed fast. If you want to promote Epicureanism, go do that in the general discussion subforum.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

*On Topic*

This is why town should never be very confident. (Which, I can't really talk at times, tbh) But I always tell myself this and try to keep myself open to possibilities in a game rather than go straight first on what I think is definite - when there aren't guarantees.

*On Topic*

This is why town should never be very confident. (Which, I can't really talk at times, tbh) But I always tell myself this and try to keep myself open to possibilities in a game rather than go straight first on what I think is definite - when there aren't guarantees.

Confidence is imperative if you are a VT, since your death doesn't hurt the town's chances of winning setup-wise. If you aren't confident, feign it. It's not just for pushing read strength, either. If you can show through your posts that you are confident in your ability to solve the game, you will suddenly find that you never live past night three unless you get apathetic and wait until LyLo to start getting serious and then end up not doing so anyway.

This isn't based on experience.

Town should always be confident, even if they are pushing moonlogic. It's better than them being apathetic sheep. It still makes things happen and elicits reactions. And it's the job of the rest of the town to help the moon walkers see where they're wrong.

There is a fine line between being confident and being stubborn. You are absolutely useless when you push people on the off chance that scum made some elaborate plot to fool the whole town.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

i agree that people should stop having theories in mafia games

nobody should be lynched ever unless there is cold, hard evidence that they're scum (like via them posting their role PM)

You need to gauge how many assumptions are being made. A reasonable argument in mafia is "*insert person* did *insert tell* which makes me think they are scum."

Here is an example of what I am talking about...

"Okay, so *insert person* was CC'd by *insert person*. That doesn't mean they necessarily aren't both mafia like I originally thought. My theory is that the counterclaiming was actually planned by both of them in order to make town worrisome about lynching either person, but it backfired."

[St Constantine the Hermit]

^ Not a real example btw

[St Constantine the Hermit]

you said these theories are the sort of thing you've never seen happen in a game? you either (a) haven't played enough, (b) haven't played against any competent scum players or (c) have given scum free wins because you don't consider the possibility that the big bang might just have happened...

No, I didn't say that. They do sometimes happen, but 95% of the time people are just overthinking things. I can't begin to tell you how many mislynches I was apart of because I could not get this concept through my head.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

(c) have given scum free wins because you don't consider the possibility that the big bang might just have happened...

I remember one of the early definitions for a theory being an "unproven explanation."

The Big Bang Effect happens when someone creates a theory to justify a prior belief that was brought into question, which is often acted out of stubbornness.

Even in the case of the Big Bang Theory, Einstein modified the original after he was confronted that the original assumptions of it were faulty. Famous scientists today are calling the improved assumptions under Einstein to be faulty as well. Now there are literally two dozen different independent schools of thought just regarding how the Big Bang happened. Hence, the Big Bang Effect.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

there is a difference between trying to jam pieces of a puzzle into place and taking pieces and seeing if they fit

maybe they do, maybe they don't, but saying "well the last X times i picked up two pieces of this puzzle they didn't fit" doesn't mean a lot

It only works with nightkills. As soon as you start getting into the psychology of what scum were thinking, you enter risky territory. When you reach the point where assumptions begin relying on other assumptions (the big bang theory requires the use of secondary theories to justify), you know you have reached insanity.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

*Correction: It only works with night action speculation. Such as powerroles, actions, and nightkills

[St Constantine the Hermit]

Is this NOT just Ockham's Razor?

Actually yes, why didn't I think of just saying that?

Basically the message I am trying to get across here is for people to stop trying to make these damn complex theories!