3 Player AIM Mafia: Sign up for BB version (1/3)

[Maverick]

Well that link doesn't work..... Sorry.

*Maverick*

[bloojay]

then get the compy checked!

[Stewie]

yay, I got fricking AIM! Now how do you start a game with a stranger?

[bloojay]

hmm...try going to a chatroom or something, theres pleanty

[Stewie]

hmm...try going to a chatroom or something, theres pleanty

how do you get to a chatroom? Can you tell me how to get to a mafia Chatroom?

[bloojay]

under the "people" menu

[gslamm]

I've given this puzzle WAY too much thought lately.

Let's alter that. Everyone knows who's wearing which shirt. I figure (with perfect play) the mafia has a >50% chance.

Who wants to run a test game here?

[shadyforce]

I'll play on these boards.

[Stewie]

pick me! /in, regardless if it's on the boards or on aim.

[mith]

Let's see...

I think the best the town can do is to come up with a random way to decide who reveals their results first/second/third. If the Mafia reveals first, there's a 50% chance he loses immediately, and a 50% chance that they're all different. If he goes second, he'll know whether the first is sane or not, and thus what the other will be, so he can force all different again; same if he goes last. I think it is then in the town's favor to lynch second or third revealer, since it's less likely the Mafia is first if they go all different; whichever of those they pick, they should have about a 40% chance of getting the scum, based on partial probabilities. So, Mafia has a 60% * 5/6 chance of winning; exactly 50%.

[gslamm]

We worked the problem a little different. Let the players decide pseudo- randomly who reveals 1st. If the Mafia is chosen to reveal 1st he has a 50/50 chance of guessing the sane shirt color, making everyone point at someone different. If a townie goes 1st the mafia can force this situation. So 1/6th of the time the mafia will trip themselves (by pointing at the insane shirt). In the stalemate situation the town can still win 1/4th of the time by BOTH townies guessing correctly.

16.6666 + 20.8333 = 37.1666 town (62.8334 mafia)

margin for error = influence of pseudo-random choice of who reveals 1st and how long it's been since I had a statistics and probability class

[gslamm]

update: New improved numbers

correction: In the post above , 2nd sentence should be "insane shirt" and later reversed again

Stalemate = all players pointing at different suspects. <1/6 50/50 8.3%
Collision = 2 players pointing at the same suspect >5/6 33/66 27.8

Allow that in 2nd or 3rd claim spot the mafia "could" choose to force a collision instead of a stalemate, even though this is sub-optimal for him in this position. A collision does not necessarily mean the mafia was the prior claimant. -Else- the mafia could always get a townie lynch when in 2nd or 3rd spot.

Allow that in a Stalemate the 1st claimant is -slightly- less likely to be the mafia.

Allow that the mod is a disinterested party and will randomly assign colors and roles.

Best townie tactic is: Always claim in alphabetic order by shirt color (or simular pre-determined order). In a collision have the remaining player choose who to lynch biased towards the 1st claimant 50% of 1/6th.

In a Standoff have the 1st claimant choose randomly who to lynch 33% of 5/6th. This is an improvement over both townies having to guess correctly (25% of 5/6th.) This gives 8.3% + 27.8% = 36.1% townie win.

Slightly better than predetermining to lynch the 1st shirt color alphabetically . (33%)

Disclaimer: I'm sure there is a math error in there somewhere. Your welcome to find it.

[Darkblade]

Since some of you want to run a test game on the boards, I'll run one (to add to the gigantic number of games I'm already modding).

Sign up below!

[Stewie]

just to add to the gigantic number of games im playing, /in

[Stewie]

by the way, people still didn't tell me how to get into a mafia AIM chatroom!!!

[Darkblade is lazy]

There is no preset Mafia chatrooms in AIM. What normally happens is a player creates a private chatroom and invites people to the room. So if you want to play AIM mafia just get our AIM addresses from the site and IM an invitation to a mafia game to the people you'd like to play.

[Stewie]

for some reason you can't see the thread in the frum, just checking if I post, we'll be able to see this again.

EDIT: yup, can see it now

[Darkblade]

A "Mafia chatroom" is just a private chatroom. If you want to play AIM mafia, just create a private chatroom, get our AIM addresses off of the site and invite us.

[Stewie]

I'll do that then... after. We are so close to starting, we need 2 more.