Mafia theory
One very notable thing is that townies come into the game burdened with mafia theory. There isn't a single townie in this game who doesn't have an opinion on OMGUS, meta, selfvoting, lurking, etc. Not that these opinions are the same, but when a situation arises which has been debated a lot, you see that usually town gets lost. For example, in case of an early game OMGUS vote, you see that quickly you get a few camps. The one's who think OMGUS is scummy, and who generally tunnel on their target. The one's who say OMGUS is antitown and go for the person who first called out the OMGUS-voter, etc.
Now, as scum, I really loved such things. I was sure not to call out the OMGUS voter first, or at least to be sure not to use the word OMGUS in my argumentation. The same with lurking. Call out for a lurker lynch and that instant town gets divided into camps. Scum can too easily abuse such situations.
If you, as a townie, notice that you are arguing in favor or against a certain tell, you know you are on the losing side. Avoid it, and focus on the actual players.
Standard play
I know a few players who do things “because they always do them”. I have seen players voting in a RVS because “we always do that”. Even when there was talk about a RQS, there was argumentation which showed that the RVS was preferred because “we always did that”.
There is probably one moment in the whole game where scum want to stay out. There is one moment which is usually discarded, but where scum come out the clearest, and that is right after the RVS. I know I hated it, and when rereading, that page or so gives by far the best information. Because that is probably the only moment in the game where scum doesn't know where things are going, and because they can't rely on earlier play which was decent.
Because, people may not notice, but very few decisions are made late in the game. If you play well day one as scum, barring investigation and such stuff, you are settled for at least two more days. But if one post in the phase right after the RVS is off, you know you are going to be wagonned, and although that may not get to a lynch, the following day's will be a struggle.
Personally, the most feared player (which I did kill asap in the game I was in with her), was DGB. You didn't know beforehand which way she was going to move next, but you did know that she was listened to. Even if you were doing well, she would look at a later post and find you out. Most other players simply go on and on. Some even made it their gimmick to tunnel people for day's at end.
I don't know how effective DGB was as a mafia hunter, but I do know I didn't like her unpredictability.
last about day 1
If you agree with me that day one mostly determines the rest of the game, as people settle after the RVS, you'd agree with me that day one is the most important scumhunting wise. I don't have the data yet, but you certainly agree with me that a day one scumlynch makes the game a lot easier. Lynching a townie just because he is a good target, or because he is going to be lynched anyway and that at least makes that “this horrid uneffective day one is over” is horrid townplay. I've seen people do this, discard day one. They actually expected to lynch town, and just wanted to get to day two where they believed the real game would start. Seen as scum wants predictability, that they dislike the randomness at the start of day one, you couldn't do them a bigger favor. After day one, scum sets up their plans for the rest of the game. They see which of their partners is the weakest link, and prepare to bus him. They know who to buddy, and already plan which townies to kill. By giving initiative to the scum, you make sure that they are really confortable in this game.
Theories
and then after a mislynch or two, you get closer to endgame and you have too much information to cope with, generally. You know who is lurking, but lurker lynches aren't too popular, and there is much more scummy stuff about other players. How to make sense of this all?
What you see a lot of players do, is that they make theories. This becomes even more prominent when one scum has been lynched. They theorize what certain players did as scum. “he bussed his buddy there, then started the new day with the obvious mislynch because she wasn't on the scum's wagon etc.”. There is nothing wrong with such stories, though they usually involve a lot of tunneling.
The most interesting it becomes when you analyse one or more of such theories. Because MS absolutely sucks at that. If there are no contestents, usually the likelyness of the theory is overstated. On the argument that “it might have happened that way” people are often (mis)lynched on such theories. These are often mislynches because different theories, which didn't fit in the hunters view were discarded. For example, when that player was just a normal townie who voted scum because he though that player was scum, and then started the day with the person which lurked when the scum was lynched. However, this counter theory is usually not considered, and because of that, no actual scumhunting takes place. There is no analysis.
But if there are different theories, still things might go wrong easily. As a multitude of players aren't very good at estimating chances (humans generally suck at that), they usually estimate that it should be around 50/50, as both players apparently think they are right.
The worst thing about such theories, is that usually it lacks any basis to be used. Because any theory or story needs a lot of actions (he distanced there, but then he voted a lurker and then he bussed his partner anyway, after which he didn't return to his original vote and then claimed doc), it would depend on so many things if someone is scum, that the actual likelyhood of the theory being completely right is very small. It's a conspiracy theory, of a towny (or scum abusing this) who doesn't understand what he is seeing and tries to find proof for his original believe who was scum.
But however weak such theories are, they can cause lynches, even though it might be indirect. As with day one, reputations matter. If you did well before, you aren't going to get lynched in the end. But if someone made such a theory on you... well, your game becomes tougher.
and then, endgame
After so many mistakes, you did surprisingly make it to a three player lylo. You had some luck, there was some decent scumhunting and here you are. You worry, because one vote might lose you the game. You also are afraid that you are here because you tunneled wrong... or is that lurker actually the scum who couldn't do better then keeping you in the game?
However, consider the scum's place. This is it for him too. He's just as nervous, as two players going against him already loses him the game, and he knows that they might not tunnel this day. Townies can't afford to tunnel wrong, and they are going to reconsider everything. For scum too, every post matters.
Now, you read all this, and you aren't going to fall for the trap where you are making only one theory. So, you reread both players, make theories on both of them. But then what? How to choose?
Generally, if you want to analyse such theories, there are two rules:
1. if one step is unlikely, the whole theory is unlikely. If there are more steps unlikely, the whole theory gets very unlikely.
2. The more steps it needs to work, the less likely the theory is right.
So, if you get into lylo with a claimed doc who protected someone day 1 and then stayed alive, bussed both his buddies and kept the one who tunneled on him in the game (you), and a lurker, you know who to vote for.
Too many players see lylo as a lottery. It isn't one. It's your second big chance to win the game, after the RVS. Talk with the players, try to find out why they are nervous, and try not to tunnel. Because tunneling means that you are only taking into account the game as it went from the RVS on, and seen that this is your second big chance to make a change, you want to use it. You won't ever see scum as nervous as they are here, and you should abuse that for some quality scumhunting.
) is also incredibly powerful. It's the middle where I personally find myself to be the weakest, and I've tried and tried to improve this, but it never seems to work.
