Could the cult auto-win Minvitational 2?

[Antrax]

Here's the situation. Game starts out with 2 mafias, 1 traitor, 1 doc, 1 cult member, 1 vigilante and 6 townies. The cult members attempt to recruit every night, and can recruit only townies. They win if there are only townies and cult left.

On night 1, the mafia shot the doctor.
On day 1, a bandwagon was formed, and forced the vigilante to come out.
Now, I claim that at this exact point, one of the cultists should've come out (they recruited successfully on night 1), with the following plan:
Lynch the vigilante now. Until the end of the game, if the recruition worked, No Lynch. Otherwise, lynch the failed recruit (mafia). This ensures that in all but the most extreme circumstances, the cult wins.
For this plan, the cult needs the town's support, even before conversion.

I claim that any townie should supoprt the plan, because even though it means he has to lynch the vigilante, it almost ensures mafia extermination, and town win.

mith claims that he'd object to this plan (he was a townie), because it forces him to change his goal from winning to ensuring the cult win, and that the cult is not on the town's side, but rather is a third force. He claims the cult is evil.

We've done about 15k of text in GLC about it, now it's time to bring it out in the open. If you were a townie in that game, and I came out and suggested that plan, would you follow with it?
Antrax

[mith]

For anyone that cares to read the discussion...

Cult Discussion

[cuban smoker]

I think my initial reaction would be to not follow the plan, believing that the cult was evil. What if they never recruited me? I think I would end up officially losing. Half the town would end up losing.

[Antrax]

Incorrect. If they didn't recruit you, you still win once all the mafias die. Nothing about a cult win means town loss.
Antrax

[cuban smoker]

Fuck, that discussion hurts my eyes. No one read it, you'll go blind. I got about a tenth of the way down before wanting to bang my head against a wall.

However, I'm sure the content is very interesting. But again, my one concern is: The part of the town that isn't recruited loses, doesn't it?

[cuban smoker]

Oh... why does mith think the cult is evil then?

[Antrax]

That's the bit I didn't understand. It might be in the discussion somewhere, or he'll post here later and explain it.
Antrax

[cuban smoker]

Allright, I'll wait for that. BUT, here's another point:

as a townie, I have previous exprience with cults. Some cults ARE evil. Notably some are not. But, he comes the kicker: the cult wants to win. This is a sure fire way for the cult to win regardless of whether it is good, or evil. EITHER WAY, they'll tell me, the poor townie, that they're on my side. What if they're not on my side? Then I DO lose.

The alignment of the cult is not known to me until the end of the game, and the only other source of information I have is the cultist who has come out. He's would lie if he was evil!

[Antrax]

to answer the inevitable question, the Cult of Apathy wins only if all living players are members of the Cult, so you can consider them good or evil as you like.

This is from the mod of that game.
Antrax

[cuban smoker]

Was that posted at the beginning, or at the end of the game?

If it was at the beginning of the game, I would then tend to agree with you Antrax.

[quercitron]

Change of rules. If the Cult wins, they decide that the best course of action is to adopt a life of organized crime and become Mafia, spitting on the dead Townspeople's graves and dedicating their future existence to the destruction of organized society, Townspeople with roles, Townspeople without roles, and cute kittens.

A Cult that cannot recruit pro-Town non-Townie roles is not a Mason group. It is a Cult. As long as pro-Town non-Townie roles are alive it cannot win. As long as it is alive pro-Town non-Townie roles cannot win. But never mind this, because the above interpretation should fix it. I mean, if the dead non-Cult Townies count a victory for the Town because the Cult took over and all the Mafia died, we'll just make the Cult the new Mafia. Oops, Mafia didn't die after all.

[/sarcasm]

[cuban smoker]

Well, I guess we know where the mod stands. I stick with my original reaction, and what seems to be the mod's interpretation, and say I would not go with the plan because as I townie, I would lose (or believe I stood a good chance at losing)

[quercitron]

Heh. Would've been somewhat unfortunate for mole if I didn't let him pull tricks. Take this situation:

Sofis (claims Cop)
mith (claims Townie)
mole (claims Cult, attacks mith)
Werebear (claims Vigilante)
IS (Townie)

and pretend you're IS. What do you do?

[Antrax]

Quer, the game had a whopping total of 2 non-townie good roles. I'd go on a limb and say I'd support the plan if I had been the vigilante myself! Sacrificing my life to ensure my side the win (Vigilante wins if all mafia are eliminated) is a fair trade.
Antrax

[mith]

The cult was a third side. The townie goal is *not* just the elimination of the Mafia, but the elimination of all other sides. You used Bladerunner as an example, but believe it or not, I was playing Bladerunner like I would have played Cult/Mafia. I wanted the elimination of *both* other sides in the game (I knew one was likely "good", but had no way of knowing for sure which). In this case, I knew one for sure was bad, but had no way of knowing what the other was. Thus, as long as I am a Townie, I play for the elimination of Mafia *and* Cult.

Anyway, given that I wouldn't have gone along with it, the numbers, even if they are as weighted in favor of the cult as you seem to think, are less in favor of the cult now, just because one townie didn't agree. If two didn't, it's probably doom for the Cult.

[Antrax]

The cult was a third side.

That's what you say. But why? What makes it different than a mason group that can recruit?
Antrax

[jeep]

I would have believed the cult to be a third side unless quercitron had said something different. Which means, I would not have followed the plan unless I was recruited. Of course, Werebear made sure I didn't need to even think of it.

-JEEP

[casinopete]

ahh, look at me arrogantly stating my opinion in a discussion in which i was not a participant, and for which i have not the proper background of experience to draw upon for an informed opinion. . .

and further, in a discussion that is more than three weeks out of date. . .

ah, well; i'm simply impatient to get into the game.

i think the key to deciding whether the cult is a third group, as opposed to souped up masons, is whether the townie winning condition is satisfied when there are both and only cult and townie-not-yet-cult roles left.
(aka: is a cult win automatically a townie loss? (i don't know that this can be assumed either way))

if this breakdown would end the game in a townie/cult co-victory, then clearly the two groups are not at cross-purposes and are allies, and i (pure townie) should embrace the cult's noble plan.

if the win wouldn't occur at that moment, then it will end up a cult win, and

not

a townie win, and i (still pure townie) should denounce the cult's fiendish plot.

to do otherwise will be shooting for survival (a win for myself), instead of a win for my group (the townies), which i would consider a betrayal of my role.

in the particular game, not counting a direct explanation from the mod, i don't think i would have been convinced by any cult argument that they were on our side; or, i may have been convinced, but would still find it irresponsible for me to embrace their plan, as they may or may not be working for the town.

basically, i just spent quite a few words to say: "there's no way for me to know whether the cult is on my side, so i must play it safe and assume they are against me."

i think it's possible that the only difference between the cult and recruiting-mason-group is that one is named a cult, which seems to be an implication from the mod that they are not out for townie good.

[Antrax]

History teaches us it's possible to persuade people of the purity of your intentions, even if the mod doesn't

i think the key to deciding whether the cult is a third group, as opposed to souped up masons, is whether the townie winning condition is satisfied when there are both and only cult and townie-not-yet-cult roles left.

If there's only cult and townies left, townies/cult win. If there's cult, townie and a pro-town role, I don't think the town wins outright, because they need to eliminate either the non-townie pro-town roles, or the cultists, for the game to end.
Antrax

[quercitron]

If there's only Cult and Townies left, game continues until there are no Cult or no Townies.

[casinopete]

If there's cult, townie and a pro-town role, I don't think the town wins outright, because they need to eliminate either the non-townie pro-town roles, or the cultists, for the game to end.

exactly. the game hasn't ended when there are only cult and townie, therefore they are not on the same side.

to exaggerate things a bit to highlight that point: say there are a cultist, four townies, and a cop left in the game, and the cultist comes forth and describes his plan. the townies must choose between killing the cultist and killing their cop. they should kill the cultist and save their cop, because it follows the intent of the game that townies stick together.

(obviously if there are two cultists they have won the game anyway, but you can't trust the revealed cultist that there are two until the game continues an extra day past the revealed player's lynching - but this is immaterial to the point)