Should a vig who shoots N1 be Modkilled?

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Yes or No?

Yes
7
4%
No
165
96%
 
Total votes : 172

zoraster
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Post Post #50  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:44 pm

In post 0, DoomYoshi wrote:For playing against win condtion.
Except in extreme cases, so voting for yes doesn't mean it's automatic. It would still be up to the mod of course.

Some players say no: a player should never be killed for using their role.
So, what if a vig shoot an innocent child?

Vig is already the most anti-town town role (I consider it strictly worse than PGO). Some players say that vig should never shoot at all (I tend to agree in most cases).


My god. How did I get here?
.

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Post Post #51  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:46 pm

In post 48, DoomYoshi wrote:
In post 42, Majiffy wrote:This thread is bad and you should feel bad.
Thanks for posting those stats Llamafluff.

It seems that shooting N1 is the only time a vig should shoot.


Ehhh... stats are limited especially since given small sample its more like 0/8 or so for N2 and 0/4 for N3+ which is why I said they need updating. Its just one of those little stats that shot the only spot you can really try and sell the vig advantage is removing mislynches which shift enough to not be a reliable arguement to me
A child believes a lie because they know no better
A grown adult sees the lie because it fails to line up with experience
In this way a child's story can be so many different experiences
With enough subtext, a thing made for a child becomes an entirely different world to an adult.

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Post Post #52  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:52 pm

In post 43, Llamarble wrote:
In post 40, Yosarian2 wrote:Cop targeting two town >> vig targeting two town

Cop targeting 1 scum and 1 town >> a vig targeting one scum and one town

Cop targeting two scum is probably about the same as a vig targeting two scum. Vig might be slightly better, but town really just wins either way.

1. One of the townies the vig shot is a townie the scum would have gotten to nightkill, but yes, the cop is definitely better here.
2. This is a slight win for the cop. The vig traded a lynch / NK cycle for a dead scum and a dead town. The cop will make sure the same thing happens and have the innocent going forward.
3. With cop the town will need to use 2 lynches on the scum whereas the vig essentially traded 1 lynch / NK cycle for 2 dead scum. Vig clearly wins here.

The cop comes out slightly ahead on these, but vigs are more robust:
If scum shoot a vig, the vig generally still can accomplish something that night.
Vigs are stronger claims since they can prove they did something when nobody else claims the shot.
Cop innocents can get shot before the cop gets to claim them.
A carelessly played cop can die with unclaimed, uncrumbed results.

And when the vig gets a free mylo->lylo shot, that is an enormous win for town.

Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally. Vigs do more damage both for good and for not-so-good, depending on how well they're played. The cop is just a less swingy role.

I think the takeaway here is that people who play cautiously and don't have confidence in their reads like cops more, and people who play strongly and have confidence in their reads like vigs more. Basically, I agree with you. And vigs are more exciting anyway.

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Post Post #53  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 7:39 pm

In post 44, Leafsnail wrote:Vig is better than cop if and only if you can identify scum perfectly without inspections (you should be winning the game anyway then).


Also, this is the best poll in the history of the site.
Retired as of October 2014.

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Post Post #54  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:27 pm

obviously vig is better than cop in terms of raw power/potential but by all practical standards he isnt
watch for the eggshells

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Post Post #55  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:30 pm

one of the biggest and overlooked power that a vigilante has (though not in my setup) is that he can shoot regardless of whether he's been outed or not.
.

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Post Post #56  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:32 pm

In post 52, UberNinja wrote:Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally.


...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

The only way a cop can fail is if the scum kill him early.

Even a vig shooting well above average (say, he shoots 1 scum in 2 nights) is much less effective then a cop picking names out of a hat.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #57  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 9:21 pm

Mr. Flay wrote:
In post 44, Leafsnail wrote:Vig is better than cop if and only if you can identify scum perfectly without inspections (you should be winning the game anyway then).


Also, this is the best poll in the history of the site.


Yay.

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Post Post #58  (ISO)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:33 pm

In post 33, chamber wrote:Highly suspect Vig is not only stronger than cop, but enough stronger that your question isn't actually all that good either.


It's a decent question. Vigs significantly outperform Cops in 3:9 setups, but in 3:10's Cops are slightly outperforming Vigs. I think the larger the game, the more beneficial Cops are, perhaps up until a certain point (20+?) where having a Vig is probably better to cull numbers before people get bored of the game and can't use all the extra information anyway.

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

The only way a cop can fail is if the scum kill him early.


I haven't checked in 13P games, but in 3:9's, the Cop was dying before D3 60% of the time - the time where they could have, at most, 2 possible investigations (barring targets dying, being blocked, getting a wrong result etc). It's extremely unlikely that a Cop, even in a 13P game will ever get three investigations and them all being alive and valid on D4.

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Post Post #59  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 12:20 am

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win,


Not if one of those is a godfather...

Flips are reliable. Cop results aren't.

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Post Post #60  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:43 am

Just policy shoot the worst lurkers and anti-town players, and a vig helps town even if it only has the statistically expected hit rate.

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Post Post #61  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:44 am

In post 60, greenknight wrote:even if it only has the statistically expected hit rate

Problem is, they don't. See above.
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Post Post #62  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:11 am

In post 61, Mr. Flay wrote:
In post 60, greenknight wrote:even if it only has the statistically expected hit rate

Problem is, they don't. See above.


My theory is that's because vigs take too many hero shots and miss

hasdgfas
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Post Post #63  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 10:21 am

In post 36, DoomYoshi wrote:It feels fine. At least I can see the reasons for it.

However, due to the varying opposing positions, there are some logical flaws.

FTR, I do mean N1, not N0, but N0 is another interesting choice.

In post 24, Bella wrote:You are effectively making the argument that including a vig is a mod error, and are thusly encouraging the mod to make up for his or her error by killing the innocent player.

It's not necessarily a mod error. However, unless there is some pretty damning D1 evidence (CC in an open game), a single shmuck with reads should not be deciding the fate of another player.

Fully disagree with this. If I'm a vig, I prefer my reads to the reads of the town as a whole



In post 35, Demon Core wrote:I seriously do support N0 vigging.


Here it seems that many people think that are thinking a mod should allow a player to kill an innocent player instead of a mod.

Strawman.

In post 25, Demon Core wrote: How often do you get the opportunity to be a vig?


Mafia Goon is indistinguishable from Vig, so it's not that uncommon.

...
jdodge1019: hasjghsalghsakljghs is from vermont
jdodge1019: vermont is made of liberal freaks and cows
jdodge1019: he's not a liberal
jdodge1019: thus he is a cow

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Post Post #64  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:45 am

In post 58, Hoopla wrote:
In post 33, chamber wrote:Highly suspect Vig is not only stronger than cop, but enough stronger that your question isn't actually all that good either.


It's a decent question. Vigs significantly outperform Cops in 3:9 setups, but in 3:10's Cops are slightly outperforming Vigs. I think the larger the game, the more beneficial Cops are, perhaps up until a certain point (20+?) where having a Vig is probably better to cull numbers before people get bored of the game and can't use all the extra information anyway.


Odds vs evens. The vig in the 12p game gets what is effectively a free shot, and so at worst can confirm himself without costing the town a lynch. Since town only gets three mislynches, the one extra town kill is worth a lot more. The vig in the 13p game costs a lynch with the very first shot.

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Post Post #65  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:49 am

In post 40, Yosarian2 wrote:Er; I can't agree with that. Cop is so much stronger then a vig. If a cop investigates two innocent people and then claims, he's already increase the town's chances of lynching correctly on every susequent day by somewhere between by, what, 30% and 100%. If a cop targets a scum, it's even better.


Look at how often this actually happens out side of very large games (almost never).
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Post Post #66  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 12:57 pm

In post 62, greenknight wrote:My theory is that's because vigs take too many hero shots and miss

That sounds about right. If vig falls into the hands of a poor player it may actually have a worse than random hit rate because they'll go after their incorrect suspicions that the town doesn't agree with them on.

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Post Post #67  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 1:43 pm

Did doomyoshi draw vig and end up misvigging every night? Is that why he has a bad attitude toward the role?

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Post Post #68  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 1:52 pm

I feel like it's more likely that that happened in a game he was in and he wasn't the vig.
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Post Post #69  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:25 pm

In post 67, Demon Core wrote:Did doomyoshi draw vig and end up misvigging every night? Is that why he has a bad attitude toward the role?


Or he could be like me and just realizes a "small chance high upside - medium chance high downside" role shouldnt be used.

Leafsnail wrote:
In post 62, greenknight wrote:My theory is that's because vigs take too many hero shots and miss

That sounds about right. If vig falls into the hands of a poor player it may actually have a worse than random hit rate because they'll go after their incorrect suspicions that the town doesn't agree with them on.


That wouldnt explain my data though. Its far more common than not for the vig to be worse than random, so claiming this means you claim that the average player is worse than random. Hero vigs are an issue, but the bigger issue is that you are skipping a few major aspects of the lynch that make it better than a vig kill. There is no claim, no wagon, no tells during votes... I think we all have wagoned someone and then suddenly went "oh yeah they are town" due to something that happens. Vig removes any chance of that.

I would bet vig actually hits PRs at same rate as scum. Even if you want to be nice and say "choose one setup"

Setup A: 10x VT, 1x Named Townie, 2x Goon
Setup B: 10x VT, 1x Named Townie, 2x Goon - One player a night randomly dies, 80% chance this player is town, NT cant die

Which would you rather have
A child believes a lie because they know no better
A grown adult sees the lie because it fails to line up with experience
In this way a child's story can be so many different experiences
With enough subtext, a thing made for a child becomes an entirely different world to an adult.

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Post Post #70  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:38 pm

If all the randomly dying players in setup B were bad players/ players agreed to be scummy then setup B.

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Post Post #71  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:46 pm

In post 46, LlamaFluff wrote:I found some of the old data, think this was the first 100 or so MN games after we started checking them, it needs an update which I will do eventually. A good vig may help the town, but I think more often then not the vig ends up doing more harm than good.

N1 vigs Shoot Scum 12.5% of time
N1 random vig is 25.9%

N2 vigs shoot scum 0% of time
N2 random vig is 27.9%

N3 vig shoots scum 0% of time
N3 random vig is 16.7% of time

Total vig hits scum 7.1% of time
At random it should be 26.2% of time

What are the stats for lynching scum the day after a vig shot instead of after a night without one?

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Post Post #72  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 2:58 pm

In post 68, borkjerfkin wrote:I feel like it's more likely that that happened in a game he was in and he wasn't the vig.


That would've been my second guess. He was misvigged himself.

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Post Post #73  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 3:29 pm

In post 70, Leafsnail wrote:If all the randomly dying players in setup B were bad players/ players agreed to be scummy then setup B.

In post 71, Axxle wrote:What are the stats for lynching scum the day after a vig shot instead of after a night without one?


These are both goodposts
Current Avatar: Kronk. Duh.

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Post Post #74  (ISO)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 3:31 pm

Neither of those things have ever happened, as far as I can remember.

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