The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)
- Cheery Dog
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Cheery Dog Kayak
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I think as a whole we catch more experienced scum, because those players would normally be early nightkills, although this is pretty much a random guess as to a reason.
New scum are either a hit or miss depending on how much experience they've had before and their understanding of the game.Holder of the Longest Continuous Weekly Mafiascum Post Record. 1 July 2012 - 16 Feb 2023
*It may be held by someone else if you discount the major downtime in 2012 and 2014, I'm not doing the research.- Faraday
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Faraday ...should I be here?
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- TierShift
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TierShift Jack of All Trades
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- Faraday
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Faraday ...should I be here?
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- quadz08
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quadz08 Jack of All Trades
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- Zachrulez
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
- Zachrulez
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In post 129, quadz08 wrote:I do want to point out that once broken out into newbie/se/ic configurations, most of the subtypes have fairly small sample sizes (<20 total games).
To get reasonable sample sizes for some of the subtypes, you would have to play an incredibly large number of newbie games under the setup due to the unlikelihood of some of the draws happening randomly. At some point you do need to theorize over having hard data because it's not feasable you'll ever have hard data on some of it.
Anyway because I'm somewhat bored and because I do believe that players will approach experience vs newbies in a different way, I think it's worthwhile to point out based on the data available that at least one IC or SE drew scum in the 3 SE, 1 IC setup approx 71.5% of the time. With 2 SE, 1 IC, the draw for at least one was approx 62.6%. I'm sure there's a way to figure out the mathematical probability, but that's for someone way more crazy into the math than I am.
Anyway, if I'm one of the SEs or ICs and I happen to draw town, I'm sure a compelling argument can be made toward lynching one of the more experienced players based entirely on the probability of one of them being scum alone. (I just pick the least likely to be town and invent some reason to lynch them.)
I'm sure the validity of that approach could be called into question, but my thought is to whether or not those kind of factors should be mitigated by reducing the presence of experience vs newbies in a newbie game. My thought is there should be just enough to teach the newbies how to play and no more.
Maybe 2 ICs is not sustainable, but would the notion of going 1 SE, 1 IC be a totally ludicrous idea to consider? That would actually bring us pretty close to the 2 IC ideal we had way back when, but with 1 IC actively expected to teach the game and 1 SE to offer alternative advice or to call out the SE if they're scum bsing? Is it important to have a third experience role? Does one of them have to be guaranteed to be town? (In 1 SE, 1 IC they could both be scum, but it would be rare.)- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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Assuming pure randomness, the odds of any particular type of scumteam are:In post 130, Zachrulez wrote:I'm sure there's a way to figure out the mathematical probability- 5Nb-3SE-1IC
- Nb-Nb: 20/72 (~27.8%)
- Nb-SE: 30/72 (~41.7%)
- Nb-IC: 10/72 (~13.9%)
- SE-SE: 6/72 (~8.3%)
- SE-IC: 6/72 (~8.3%)
- 6Nb-2SE-1IC
- Nb-Nb: 30/72 (~41.7%)
- Nb-SE: 24/72 (~33.3%)
- Nb-IC: 12/72 (~16.7%)
- SE-SE: 2/72 (~2.8%)
- SE-IC: 4/72 (~5.6%)
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- Cogito Ergo Sum
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Cogito Ergo Sum YARR!
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In post 130, Zachrulez wrote:Anyway, if I'm one of the SEs or ICs and I happen to draw town, I'm sure a compelling argument can be made toward lynching one of the more experienced players based entirely on the probability of one of them being scum alone. (I just pick the least likely to be town and invent some reason to lynch them.)
The odds of there being scum among the other non-newbies is literally the same odds as the odds of there being scum among any group of players in that game of the same size. There's no substance to this argument.Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~- Zachrulez
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Zachrulez Jack of All Trades
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In post 132, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:In post 130, Zachrulez wrote:Anyway, if I'm one of the SEs or ICs and I happen to draw town, I'm sure a compelling argument can be made toward lynching one of the more experienced players based entirely on the probability of one of them being scum alone. (I just pick the least likely to be town and invent some reason to lynch them.)
The odds of there being scum among the other non-newbies is literally the same odds as the odds of there being scum among any group of players in that game of the same size. There's no substance to this argument.
I'm not arguing that it's optimal play necessarily, just pointing out that those kind of stats can have power in an environment where experienced players can be seen as bigger potential threats.- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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For the record, the one remaining scum of Newbie 1574 conceded the game. To keep the stats functional, I have recorded this as a lynch on the offending scumbum.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- goodmorning
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goodmorning AnySurvivor
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Dammit, that's going to bother mine.EFFORT IS NOT INDICATIVE OF ALIGNMENTLA during normal working and sleeping hours EST
Get to know a very pleasant AM.- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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Okay this is officially ridiculous.
The slot replacement rate for newbie scum slots is now 87.5%, and the player replacement rate is now 110.6%.
In other words, newbie scum slots have a 7/8 chance of seeing at least one replacement, with an average replacements-per-game of 1.1.
And because I don't count most pregame replacements, nor replacements that are another person's fault, this is a lower bound.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- BBmolla
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BBmolla Open Book
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- Cheery Dog
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Cheery Dog Kayak
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- ~Jordan`
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~Jordan` Goon
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- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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...get replaced less than half as often. (42% of them saw at least one replacement, average of 0.515 replacements per game)In post 137, BBmolla wrote:Newbie town slots?
This is true, but scum already has a winning percentage advantage, and it's not necessarily representative of the site as a whole.In post 138, Cheery Dog wrote:If we gave scum daytalk, I think that would help decrease the amount of newbie scum replacements.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- Oversoul
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Oversoul
- Not_Mafia
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Not_Mafia Smash Hit
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So any newbie slot with a replacement has ~37% of being scum, which is 68% more accurate than random lynching, not ideal but it doesn't seem too bad, at least not as bad as the 87.5% looks initallyAlso, what is NM doing? Worst play I’ve ever seen.I can't remember the last N_M post that wasn't bland, unimaginative and lame. Some shitposters are at least somewhat funny. You are the epitomy of the type of poster that nobody would miss if you were to suddenly disappear. You never add anything of value.I'm guessing you haven't read the game and probably never will? Why even sign up to play?- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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Okay this is gonna make me look stupid but here it is.
I found a major bug in the replacements pivot tables. Basically, all slots in all games since 1531 were being counted as both town and scum for the question of "how many times did this slot get replaced". I don't have a clue how it happened, nor why Excel didn't pop up one of its "these adjacent formulas don't match" boxes to tell me.
So expect some major changes to the replacement stats in the next little bit. I suspect things will look far less ridiculous once it's all corrected.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- goodmorning
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goodmorning AnySurvivor
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That explains a lot.EFFORT IS NOT INDICATIVE OF ALIGNMENTLA during normal working and sleeping hours EST
Get to know a very pleasant AM.- JeanDarc
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JeanDarc Goon
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I feel that the forum titles should have some dark humour.
1. anoints the newbies who replace OUT of their first two games or two games in a row (prior to completion of any of their games) with the title: Weasel; or Ferret
2. commend other players who replace INTO x games in a row and stick to end of game/death with the title: Tree Stump; or better yet, Master Disguiser.
I wonder how many games would suffice for the honourable title of a Tree Stump, but I think 10 is a good start.- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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Okay so this is somewhat interesting: setup A (JK+RB+BP) has gone on a town win streak lately and is now above 40% like all the other subsetups. It remains the lest-common setup too, so there's still room to improve as well.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- Runner
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Runner Goon
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Wow these stats are very... thorough. Somewhat painful to read how one game lasted nearly 3 months, and how one game had 11 players replace out.
Thanks for putting in the time to do this stuff Toomai. Do you think the below average winrate for setup A will rise once the number of games completed for that setup rises more in line with the rest?- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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30 samples is traditionally where statisticians put the "minimum" mark for a binary collection. Since all the subsetups have now passed that, I don't expect the winrates to change too much from now on unless one faction's meta gets a power boost.In post 147, Runner wrote:Do you think the below average winrate for setup A will rise once the number of games completed for that setup rises more in line with the rest?This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.- Toomai
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Toomai Goon
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I have begun to add the stats for the ongoing daytalk experiment to the first post. With only 2 completed games so far, there's nothing important to say about it so far other than it's there.This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really. - Toomai
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- Toomai
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