The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Wed Nov 11, 2015 5:22 pm

Post by Apricity »

I was scum in the first Daytalk game. Daytalk didn't really matter here since my partner was pretty inactive/lurky, but I feel it could be significant if both scum are active and coordinate well.
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Tue Dec 15, 2015 9:26 am

Post by tn5421 »

Newbie 1658 was, in my opinion, a good example of how daytalk can really swing things.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=63709
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:15 am

Post by PokerFace »

An IC and SE were in that game as scum. Neither of you would I consider newbs so I don't think daytalk effected how newbs replaced in or out
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Fri Dec 18, 2015 9:10 am

Post by Plotinus »

it didn't affect the replacements. it did affect our win. tn was confscum in mylo and we lynched town
anyway
and daytalk helped tremendously.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:50 pm

Post by Jackal711 »

1671 shows what can happen when daytalk isn't utilized, and when it is.

The initial team was a newbie and an SE. The SE later flaked, resulting in the newbie also replacing out.

The replacements proceeded to make pretty good use of their thread, and the game ended with both scum alive in a day 3 scum victory.

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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:37 am

Post by Quilford »

Playing around with the current Newbie setup:

Vanilla TownieMafia GoonVanilla Townie
Town CopTown Jailkeeper
Town DoctorMafia RoleblockerTown Tracker


Pick any corner and then add the roles in the adjacent cells, one Mafia Goon and five VTs.

Preserves the three most balanced setups from Matrix6 (JK; Cop; Cop, Doc, RB) and gives Town a better PR for the setup which they lose more frequently in Matrix6 (JK, BP, RB becomes JK, Tracker, RB). Downside(?) is 4 setups instead of 6.
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:02 am

Post by Quilford »

Or if you were willing to trade a more convoluted formulation for more setups:

Vanilla TownieMafia GoonVanilla Townie
Town CopTown 1-Shot BP*Town Jailkeeper
Town DoctorMafia RoleblockerTown Tracker
*or any other weak Town PR

Pick either long diagonal. Then pick the three roles either: along the diagonal, above the diagonal, or below the diagonal and add VTs and Goons for 2:7.

Can also be reformulated as

Vanilla Townie
Town CopMafia Goon
Town DoctorTown 1-Shot BPVanilla Townie
Mafia RoleblockerTown Jailkeeper
Town Tracker

Pick the three roles in either the two top rows, the two bottom rows, the two leftmost columns, the two rightmost columns, the single central row or the single central column and add VTs and Goons for 2:7.

Not sure if that particularly helps tho.
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:10 am

Post by Ircher »

@Quil -- That last diagram confuses me. I don't think it would be a good idea to have confusing and intricate diagrams just for role setups.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:19 am

Post by Quilford »

Well, I've just realised it's unnecessarily complicated anyway: it's equivalent to the following Matrix6 table:

Town CopVanilla TownieMafia Goon
Town DoctorTown 1-Shot BPVanilla Townie
Mafia RoleblockerTown TrackerTown Jailkeeper
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:29 am

Post by Quilford »

The BP is too weak in that formulation though and should be swapped out with a stronger role. But there's no shortage of candidates.
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:32 am

Post by Quilford »

Or you could do away with it entirely and restrict the choices to either of two columns or rows, which produces the first setup I came up with tonight. Heh. Yay for accidentally making things needlessly complicated.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:47 am

Post by Ether »

I don't think taking the most balanced setups without daytalk is actually going to help much. Honestly, I think just abandoning daytalk is the best thing we can do here.
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:51 am

Post by Quilford »

I have no dog in the daytalk fight, I'm just trying to modify Matrix6 so that all its subsetups are as close to 50% winrate as possible, and also maybe to freshen things up for players and mods >300 games in.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:10 am

Post by Quilford »

Just to summarise, my proposal is that we change the current Matrix6 role table with this one:

Town CopVanilla TownieMafia Goon
Town DoctorTown RoleblockerVanilla Townie
Mafia RoleblockerTown TrackerTown Jailkeeper

- preserves JK setup (current Town winrate 50.9%)
- preserves Cop setup (winrate 47.9%)
- preserves RB, Cop, Doc setup (55.8%)
- keeps the power balance mostly the same / potentially slightly increases Town's power by swapping Roleblocker in for Tracker in Doc, Tracker setup (43.8%)
- gives Town more power by swapping Tracker in for BP in JK, RB, BP setup (38.6%)
- gives Town more power by swapping Roleblocker in for BP in BP, Tracker setup (38.0%)
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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:22 am

Post by Toomai »

I think there's a high chance of unintended consequences with your methodology. Possible example: since the Jailkeeper know knows he no longer has a potential BP clogging up the works, he can be much more confident in his actions in both setups, therefore raising the town winrate in both.
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:06 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I feel like though, and this may just be me, that 60% town winrate is perfectly acceptable while 60% scum winrate isn't.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 8:36 am

Post by Cogito Ergo Sum »

Townie-Roleblocker-Tracker and MafiaRB-Tracker-Jailkeeper both suffer from having two roles that become significantly more powerful when one mafia dies - that's too swingy. In addition, the latter set-up raises the question of what result a Tracker receives if the RB and JK target each other.
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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:08 am

Post by goodmorning »

I think if any change is made it definitely needs to include no setups with both JK and RB.
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:52 am

Post by Bullish »

The most important stat I see is that random lynching is better than non-random lynching.
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2016 4:55 am

Post by Toomai »

In post 168, Bullish wrote:The most important stat I see is that random lynching is better than non-random lynching.
If this is a blanket statement, I don't think you're reading it right. There are specific ratios where random lynching and directed lynching are basically equal at catching scum, but the majority of the time, directed lynching kills less town and more scum than random lynching would.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:39 pm

Post by Bullish »

In post 169, Toomai wrote:
In post 168, Bullish wrote:The most important stat I see is that random lynching is better than non-random lynching.
If this is a blanket statement, I don't think you're reading it right. There are specific ratios where random lynching and directed lynching are basically equal at catching scum, but the majority of the time, directed lynching kills less town and more scum than random lynching would.

I meant for DP1 specifically, when no NK or wagon analysis are possible. It was 226/62 (directed) vs 230/66 (random), which is in favor of random lynching.

Also, I wrote a program that specifically runs through set up B. I ran it 1 000 000 000 times. The result was town win 53.4%, which is higher than the current 47.9%, and presumably statistically significant.
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Sun Feb 07, 2016 1:23 pm

Post by hiplop »

please no JK/Rb setups
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:28 pm

Post by Ircher »

Mountainous 9p,2s has a Town win rate of ~30%.

So, with that being said, here's my suggestion for a new newbie setup that might make the best of both worlds:

Town 3-Shot Cop
Mafia Encryptor
Town Doctor
Vanilla Townie
Town Tracker
Mafia 1-Shot Neighborizer
Mafia Goon
Town Friendly Neighbor
Town 1-Shot Neighborizer


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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:36 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Right column looks terrible for town. Top row looks terrible for scum (do we have stats for that one from 2of4?). Also, with Encryptor being included, does that mean that only 2 of the 6 setups have daytalk? That seems to rather defeat the purpose of daytalk. Central row is almost strictly worse for town than left column.
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:38 pm

Post by Ircher »

How bout switch the Cop & Tracker?
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