The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

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Post Post #175 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:39 pm

Post by Ircher »

And, creating 6 diff. balanced DayTalk setups in this format is a bit tough
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Post Post #176 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:50 pm

Post by Ircher »

Town 3-Shot Cop
Mafia 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Doctor
Town 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Jailkeeper
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Town Friendly Neighbor
Town Tracker


Same rules as before.

How about that?
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Post Post #177 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 2:51 pm

Post by Ether »

It's pointless to give the cop in a 9-player game three shots instead of keeping it infinite. The mafia neighborizer has no incentive here to play as anything but a goon, since confirming its role will just condemn it when a doctor or friendly neighbor flips (or when another player has been targetted by the friendly neighbor). I don't see what this set is really trying to offer.
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Post Post #178 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 2:58 pm

Post by Ircher »

Town 2-Shot Cop
Mafia 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Doctor
Friendly Neighbor
Town Jailkeeper
Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon
Town 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Tracker


Same rules as before.

Trying to offer balanced setups around DayTalk.
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Post Post #179 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 3:03 pm

Post by Ircher »

That Gives:

1. Town 2S Cop, Town Doc, Maf. 1-Shot Neighborizer
2. FN, Town JK, Mafia Goon
3. Town 1-Shot Neighborizer, Town Tracker, Mafia Goon
A: Town 2S Cop, FN, Mafia Goon
B: Town JK, Town 1S Neighborizer, Maf. 1S Neighborizer
C: Town Doc, Town Tracker, Mafia Goon
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Post Post #180 (ISO) » Mon Mar 14, 2016 3:23 pm

Post by Ether »

The scum neighborizer still has no incentive to target anyone unless it already knows that the setup is Column B. If it's playing in Row 1 instead, then it's just confirming itself as scum for no good reason.

EDIT: (And even in Column B, it's picking a 1v1 with a town power role. It's not a strategy that'll get it to the end, it's just something it could do to stop the town neighborizer from being instantly confirmed. But that doesn't make it a good idea.)
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Post Post #181 (ISO) » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:19 pm

Post by Ircher »

Town 2-Shot Cop
Mafia 1-Shot Rolecop
Town Doctor
Friendly Neighbor
Town Jailkeeper
Mafia 1-Shot Watcher
Mafia 1-Shot Roleblocker
Town 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Tracker


Same rules as before.

Trying to offer balanced setups around DayTalk.
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Post Post #182 (ISO) » Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:23 am

Post by Rob14 »

So scum know what setup they're in as soon as a town PR is claimed 100% of the time. I still think 4x4 makes the most sense
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Post Post #183 (ISO) » Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:02 pm

Post by Quaroath »

In post 0, Toomai wrote:Spoiler: Replacement vs. length stats
When 0 slots are replaced all game, games take 29.5 days with standard deviation of 10.80 (15 games)
When 1 slot is replaced all game, games take 36.6 days with standard deviation of 10.89 (48 games)
When 2 slots are replaced all game, games take 36.0 days with standard deviation of 12.82 (62 games)
When 3 slots are replaced all game, games take 39.5 days with standard deviation of 13.71 (62 games)
When 4 slots are replaced all game, games take 45.8 days with standard deviation of 13.96 (61 games)
When 5 slots are replaced all game, games take 47.0 days with standard deviation of 13.17 (36 games)
When 6 slots are replaced all game, games take 48.7 days with standard deviation of 13.89 (10 games)
When 7 slots are replaced all game, games take 61.5 days with standard deviation of 11.55 (3 games)
One game replaced 8 slots; it took 71.5 days
No games have had 9 slots replaced


I know I'm late to this, but I was the Ironman in Newbie 1664 that had eight replacements. That game burnt me on playing for a long while.

At least I won.
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Post Post #184 (ISO) » Sat May 07, 2016 4:54 am

Post by Toomai »

A few people have PMed me about this so I'll answer here:

I haven't been updating the first post lately because I've decided to wait for all the newbie daytalk games to finish (which at this point is just 1688). Once that's done and I've outed the results, I'll begin updating this topic again.
This should be required reading for...everyone for anything, really.
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Post Post #185 (ISO) » Sat May 07, 2016 7:50 am

Post by Davsto »

In post 181, Ircher wrote:
Town 2-Shot Cop
Mafia 1-Shot Rolecop
Town Doctor
Friendly Neighbor
Town Jailkeeper
Mafia 1-Shot Watcher
Mafia 1-Shot Roleblocker
Town 1-Shot Neighborizer
Town Tracker


Same rules as before.

Trying to offer balanced setups around DayTalk.
And now the neighbouriser is conftown

Honestly I feel like you're overcomplicating a setup which is designed to be an easy first setup to play in for the site. If I came to the site a complete newbie (as in not having played mafia ever before), having this be listed as the "newbie" setup and therefore logically one of the simpler setups onsite, this could potentially have turned me off from joining a game.
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Post Post #186 (ISO) » Sun May 08, 2016 1:23 pm

Post by Ether »

To be fair, there's nothing wrong with a neighborizer being confirmed town. (But the rest I agree with, this just looks like a bunch of roles haphazardly thrown together.)

1688 is done. So not counting 1664, which ended prematurely, mafia won 17/19 of the first twenty games of the trial, and the second half was a perfect 50/50 split between mafia and town. I have no idea what the hell just happened.
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Post Post #187 (ISO) » Sat Jun 18, 2016 6:01 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

It's still interesting how flagrantly different rows 2 and 3 are from the rest, with setup A barely balanced as well. I wonder...

Could the RB and cop BOTH change to 2-shot? In setup B, the cop is often ID'd and dead by N3, so the third shot shouldn't really matter. But in setup 2, the cop's shots could last longer (presuming that a blocked check doesn't cost a shot).

And on the mafia side, you start to have a real decision to make whether to use the RB shots early, since JK is pretty OP in a small game (and RB pretty OP as a counter), while the cop is very dangerous to a mafia team if left unblocked early.

PS As discussed on the daytalk thread, I think that subbing UB for BP could help balance things out, since BP is basically useless (other than as a clear claim) on row 3 (since stopping just one shot doens't really mean anything anyway), and low usefulness on column A as well. OTOH subbing in a UB for BP probably means that the RB should NOT be a limited shot role, since then town gets kinda OP on setup A with JK/UB.
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Post Post #188 (ISO) » Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:21 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Anyone interested in resurrecting the discussion over whether we should replace the 1-shot BP with a universal backup? Stats are pretty clear that the two BP setups (3 and A) have the lowest town win rates by a decent margin, and I suspect it's at least in part because:

1-shot BP claims can't do anything useful after being claimed, and especially after JK/tracker dies
people are policy lynching them because they can't do anything useful and are easy fake claims

If there's interest in getting town's win rate closer to 50%, then I think that boosting 3/A setups is worthwhile, and I'd think that subbing UB for the 1-shot BP is the best way to do it, especially in the tracker setup, where the BP really sticks out as not being useful excepting for a bit of WIFOM on whether or not there's a doc or a BP.
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Post Post #189 (ISO) » Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:22 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Specifically, current stats, with the two BP setups bolded/enlarged for emphasis:

Setup Town Wins Scum Wins T%
1 (J) 29 33 46.8%
2 (RCD) 36 31 53.7%
3 (BT) 26 39 40.0%
A (JRB) 26 35 42.6%

B (C) 30 31 49.2%
C (DT) 28 35 44.4%
Total 175 204 46.2%
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Post Post #190 (ISO) » Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:50 am

Post by ironstove »

Seems like bulletproof is a -EV power for town. I'm really not sure why this setup hasn't been updated or changed when these stats are available and showing what a terrible PR BP is.

If you want to boost the win rate of the BP setups (which are both hovering around 40%, grossly in mafia favor), I would suggest switching BP for a better PR or removing BP altogether and making it a VT slot. It seems like people try to make some big plays with BP which more times than not ends up benefiting mafia because it happens in newbies, or new players aren't sure of how to correctly play BP which requires strong reads of the game.

I have a theory that no BP is better than BP because you can look and compare the stats:

BP games have the lowest winrate
Other games with the PR mix i.e. jailer and tracker, both have a respective win rate that is higher without BP.

What would be a good suggestion for a PR?

My idea is to add oracle to the list of possible PRs on mafia scum i.e. you target a player at night, and if you are killed by mafia, you end up revealing the role of your target to the entire game.

Some people might argue this is too overpowered, but I think a strong PR is necessary to fix a setup that has such a horrible skew towards one side.

Another PR suggestion if we're picking from the normal pool would be watcher, gunsmith, innocent child, and/or 1-shot vigi.
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Post Post #191 (ISO) » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:05 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Universal Backup is good
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Post Post #192 (ISO) » Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:46 pm

Post by Toomai »

In post 190, ironstove wrote:Seems like bulletproof is a -EV power for town. I'm really not sure why this setup hasn't been updated or changed when these stats are available and showing what a terrible PR BP is.
There's been a lot of discussion over the BP, though for different reasons - a claim strategy was invented that was purported to break the game. But after the strategy was tried and it doesn't appear to have stuck, the imputus to change the role/setup has died somewhat.

It may be true that the two BP setups have the lowest town winrates. It's not ideal, but this doesn't mean it's inherently a bad thing that must be changed. The overall town winrate in the setup is still 45.9%; it's hard to do much better than that. So as long as no subsetup gets too much past 60%/40% (setup 3 is hovering at 39.7% right now), I think it's fine how it is.
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Post Post #193 (ISO) » Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:23 am

Post by Ircher »

In post 0, Toomai wrote:Town ICs 10.4% 11.3%
Scum ICs 16.5% 16.5%
This feels like a possible issue -- the scum IC replace out rate is much higher (?) than the town IC replace-out rate.
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Post Post #194 (ISO) » Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:21 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

The scum replace out rate for I think all positions is much higher than the town rate. That said, an IC replace out rate of even 10% is incredibly disappointing.
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Post Post #195 (ISO) » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:46 pm

Post by Toomai »

In post 193, Ircher wrote:
In post 0, Toomai wrote:Town ICs 10.4% 11.3%
Scum ICs 16.5% 16.5%
This feels like a possible issue -- the scum IC replace out rate is much higher (?) than the town IC replace-out rate.
Z=-1.3832 and p=0.16758, so this isn't actually a statistically significant difference.
In post 194, mhsmith0 wrote:That said, an IC replace out rate of even 10% is incredibly disappointing.
I don't have a stat for this, but an eye test suggests that IC replaces come in waves; we get stretches of 20-30 games with none, than a bunch of 20 games with 3 or 4.
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Post Post #196 (ISO) » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:49 pm

Post by chamber »

In post 195, Toomai wrote:I don't have a stat for this, but an eye test suggests that IC replaces come in waves; we get stretches of 20-30 games with none, than a bunch of 20 games with 3 or 4.
Can you even think of a mechanism that would cause this? Might just be pattern matching noise.
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Post Post #197 (ISO) » Fri Jul 21, 2017 3:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'd bet that new ics replace out at a MUCH higher rate than experienced ones, so I'd guess it's related to new ics sometimes being approved in batches.
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Post Post #198 (ISO) » Fri Jul 21, 2017 8:44 am

Post by Cabd »

Meta-related to my thread about IC replace outs. It's just too damn high.

Hopefully a new skittle will be able to wrangle that in a bit.
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Post Post #199 (ISO) » Sun Feb 04, 2018 5:55 am

Post by Toomai »

It's over. The last Matrix6 game ended a few days ago, and the stats are now complete.

Overall? The setup was good. The faction winrate was 46:54, and each individual player coming in had a 47.7% chance to win. Sure, the isolated subsetups are less than ideal, and the BP was widely determined to be a problem. But as a coherent whole, it's hard to do much better than that.

I'll be putting up the 2d3 stats thread once it has 10 completed games.
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