http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=62458
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=62466
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=62533
Analysis:
Is 6 players balanced?
I would say Yes as the end game was a 1/2, 1/3 guess for the assassin in all 3 games. Results I found, agree with Magua's mathWas wifom used?
In game 1 there was a moderate amount. In game 2 there was too much. In game 3 there was practically none. Game 3 was the most devoid of wifom and discussion of any "In the Palace" game I have ever seen!Why did kingdom win only game 1?
Game 2 had lots of bad wifom despite the speedy day 1 lynch. Game 3 had almost no wifom, but it took them longest to reach a lynch. 2/5 town players were put at L-1 in game 3 before a lynch occured. One town player also self voted in game 3. So voting made it 1/2 for assassin before day 1 was even over. Game 1 had only 1 player get to L-1 which was the same player lynched day 1. Discussion and WIFOM in that game didn't point toward who was or was not king. It pointed toward who was or was not assassin. This type of WIFOM is not great, but its better than the who is king WIFOM. Also this WIFOM was not used by all players and did not encompass all players. Some players were not used in it or did not use the WIFOM at all. All players using it can effect the game outcome both ways for good or bad pending how each use it. But using all players in it, is what I think guarantees an Assassin Victory. If each player is talked about for being scummy or townie or guard or king or assassin, then discovering who is towniest and king can be very easy for an assassin.Can WIFOM better a players odds of wining in "In The Palace" games?
in theory yes, but getting every player in a game to use it correctly and the same way is harder to organize than the optimal pro strategy in AITP. It will always be easier for 1 player to formulate a plan for 1 player (assassin) than for 1-X players to formulate a plan for X players (Kingdom). Thus I think the "everybody stay silent and just lynch someone immediately strategy" is always going to be the better strategy in "In the palace" games. Lynching someone immediately is the most important part of that strategy as it aids the cutting down of discussion and WIFOM part. Its the first piece of the puzzle. And without pieces you will never complete the puzzle. "In The Palace" games are more like puzzles than mafia games especially since its informed majority vs uninformed minority. Is provable randomness the way to go in "In The Palace"?
Technically its not possible because town won't be random while they have something to protect like a king, BUT the closest thing to it (which is the optimal town strategy) is the best way to go. Its not the only way to go, but its the better way to go vs crazy WIFOM, especially in CITP and AITP"Only you can protect Forest Fires" is practically an AITP game, but as its got a HERO role that can't vote, multiple assassins that can't vote, 1 king that can't vote, and night kills, in theory the same optimal town strategy should be ideal. But the other roles and night kills made it hard to organize, and it can be interrupted by the scum. So an "In The Palace" setup that has more than just 1 king and 1 assassin is a better setup against provable randomness. This same theory also applies to WITP where I imagine its impossible to use these strategies as there is no town. There are multiple factions, but no true town. WITP is likely the furthest from mafia than all the others.
What does this have to do with provable randomness and actual Mafia?
As long as town has something to protect, I don't think you will be able to organize it. Town wants to preserve its power roles and catch scum the hunting way as it cuts down on loosing power roles and in theory could get the scum without casualty to the town. The town has roles it needs to protect. Through in game discussion votes are given direction. The same can be said about power roles. The more direction you have for power roles, the greater they succeed
What if the town didn't have something to protect, no power roles? If the game was nightless and or mountainous I think a provable random strategy could be easily organized by the town. And I think it would be very powerful for town there because it would be an true battle of who's side can absorb lynches the best. When you mix in power roles and nights, things become a battle of
which roles survive the longest
and not which faction can survive the longest
. The swingier the game is the less likely you can use provable randomness. And the less likely it will be successful and unaffected by power roles. The more power roles (things you need to protect) effect the randomness, the less successful and controllable the strategy becomes.