The Big Bang Effect

[zMuffinMan]

there is a difference between trying to jam pieces of a puzzle into place and taking pieces and seeing if they fit

maybe they do, maybe they don't, but saying "well the last X times i picked up two pieces of this puzzle they didn't fit" doesn't mean a lot

[St Constantine the Hermit]

(c) have given scum free wins because you don't consider the possibility that the big bang might just have happened...

I remember one of the early definitions for a theory being an "unproven explanation."

The Big Bang Effect happens when someone creates a theory to justify a prior belief that was brought into question, which is often acted out of stubbornness.

Even in the case of the Big Bang Theory, Einstein modified the original after he was confronted that the original assumptions of it were faulty. Famous scientists today are calling the improved assumptions under Einstein to be faulty as well. Now there are literally two dozen different independent schools of thought just regarding how the Big Bang happened. Hence, the Big Bang Effect.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

there is a difference between trying to jam pieces of a puzzle into place and taking pieces and seeing if they fit

maybe they do, maybe they don't, but saying "well the last X times i picked up two pieces of this puzzle they didn't fit" doesn't mean a lot

It only works with nightkills. As soon as you start getting into the psychology of what scum were thinking, you enter risky territory. When you reach the point where assumptions begin relying on other assumptions (the big bang theory requires the use of secondary theories to justify), you know you have reached insanity.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

*Correction: It only works with night action speculation. Such as powerroles, actions, and nightkills

[ika]

The Big Bang theory is the prevailing cosmological model for the Universe from the earliest known periods through its subsequent large-scale evolution. The model accounts for the fact that the Universe expanded from a very high density and high temperature state, and offers a comprehensive explanation for a broad range of phenomena, including the abundance of light elements, the cosmic microwave background, large scale structure and Hubble's Law. If the known laws of physics are extrapolated beyond where they are valid, there is a singularity. Modern measurements place this moment at approximately 13.8 billion years ago, which is thus considered the age of the Universe. After the initial expansion, the Universe cooled sufficiently to allow the formation of subatomic particles, and later simple atoms. Giant clouds of these primordial elements later coalesced through gravity to form stars and galaxies.

[Vonythan]

He's either trolling and you should ignore him or he's really dumb and who cares what he thinks and you should ignore him.

[zMuffinMan]

When you reach the point where assumptions begin relying on other assumptions, you know you have reached insanity.

i agree that making assumptions based on other assumptions is just dumb

for example, it would be silly to assume you're safe in the company of friends because you assume that none of your friends are serial killers who get off on killing people close to them

i'm glad i'm not stupid enough to make assumptions based on assumptions. that's why i never leave my plastic bubble

[wgeurts]

St Constantine, you do know that the Emperical method isn't the only means of getting knowledge? Muffin is doing a great job pointing that out.
Mafia isn't a testable and tangible thing, we can't setup an experiment to test a hypothesis whether someone's scum that abides inside the rules of the game. It's not possible.
So just like in a court case we gather evidence and make theories. Of cause there's always a margin of error and nobody will ever reach perfection. Theories are our best means of playing the game besides random chance. We need to make theories as to why certain behaviour is likely to come from certain alignments and yes they will never be infallible.
However they do increase our chances of winning as does this method in court cases. We cannot ever "prove" someone is guilty of murder, however we can be certain that someone is guilty of murder with a very low chance of us being wrong. Call it assumptions on assumptions, it's the best way we have.

[AlwaysInnocent]

I agree that theories should be kept as simple as possible, but the Big Bang Theory is a bad example, since it is actually supported by evidence. A better example would be string theory, which does assume a lot for mathematical consistency, e.g., assuming the existence of extra dimensions.

Why not call them "bloated theories" or something?

[AlwaysInnocent]

By the way, sometimes it is useful to assume things. For example, you could consider two or more possible worlds (each determined by some assumptions) and compare them to determine the world to be the most plausible. If the situation is simple enough, this can even be exhaustive.

[Vonythan]

I think a better example of a bloated theory would be

any theory anyone has ever had about Mafia.

[Radical Rat]

Forgive me, I'm new around here, but.........

Is this NOT just Ockham's Razor?

[Kublai Khan]

I just want to note here that zMuffinMan is awesome in this thread.

[St Constantine the Hermit]

Is this NOT just Ockham's Razor?

Actually yes, why didn't I think of just saying that?

Basically the message I am trying to get across here is for people to stop trying to make these damn complex theories!

[Dwlee99]

i agree that people should stop having theories in mafia games

nobody should be lynched ever unless there is cold, hard evidence that they're scum (like via them posting their role PM)

You need to gauge how many assumptions are being made. A reasonable argument in mafia is "*insert person* did *insert tell* which makes me think they are scum."

Here is an example of what I am talking about...

"Okay, so *insert person* was CC'd by *insert person*. That doesn't mean they necessarily aren't both mafia like I originally thought. My theory is that the counterclaiming was actually planned by both of them in order to make town worrisome about lynching either person, but it backfired."

Tbh I've wanted to do this before where I would tell a mafia partner of mine that was gonna get lynched to claim something so I could counter it. On my way to conf town boiz.

[Aeronaut]

I have two arms, therefor i am real [/philo]