Mafia player rankings

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Mafia player rankings

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:45 pm

Post by Aronis »

Okay, so I was bored and playing around and came up with a points system of sorts for mafia players, bc I thought it'd be cool if there was a ranking system of sorts for mafia. Basically I grade performances based on characteristics I deem necessary for town and mafia. For town: your ability to be townread, read players, and if applicable actions taken as a power role. For scum: how long you can survive, who you nightkill, and if applicable actions taken as a power role. So based strictly upon your night actions, when/if you die, and votecounts, you're given grades for how you do in each category and then average them out to get your overall score.

So based upon games I deemed 'normal' (which includes most approved open setups, actual normal games, and theme games that are pretty basic) that concluded within the
past year
make that the past two years(larger sample size), I made my personal rankings:
NAMEOVRGP
OceanWind752
chamber606
Plotinus599
Untrod Tripod554
Aronis535
hiplop421
Taly416


Town stats
NAMEOVRGPTWNSHGTHGPRP
Aronis593385083--
chamber563566727--
Untrod Tripod5545383170
Plotinus47655500100
Taly3954183330


Scum stats
NAMEOVRGPSVLNKGPRP
OceanWind7521006750
Plotinus7139250--
chamber6335850--
Aronis4624250--
Taly43143----
hiplop421503333



What everything means:
OVR is my overall, 53 is a very average score. 100 would be a perfect player. 0 would be a terrible player.
GP is games played.

Then town stuff:
This ovr is how well I do as town based on my two games. 73 is rlly good.
TWN just stands for town, bc I wasn't sure what to call it exactly. But basically how townread I am based on when I get lynched/vigged, etc. 43 is a slightly below average score. A perfect score would entail you getting nightkilled by mafia every night 1, bc you are obv town. The worst score would be you getting lynched by town every day 1.
SHG is scumhunting, and it basically comes down to how often you are on the wagon lynching scum over how many opportunities you had. So in the two 'normal' games I played this year I was on every scum wagon and therefore have a perfect score.
THG is townhunting, it is just how often you aren't on a wagon that kills town vs. how often you are. So in my two games, I didnt kill a single town player and also have a perfect score with this. Obv me being perfect at this is a misrepresentation pretty much based on the fact that I got lucky and havent played enough as town for it to be more realistic.
PRP is for power role play. This would average out your score as a cop/doc/etc to get your general score. A good score for this would be much lower, due to the fact that you blocking every night kill is unrealistic and even stopping half would be rlly good. I was VT in the two games recorded so this stat doesnt apply to me.

Scum stuff:
So svl is Survival. It comes down to how long you can last and is the key stat for scum, since that's pretty much all they need to do. I got lynched early alot, so have a pretty bad score of 24, which is an average of getting lynched about D2 every game. 100 would be never getting lynched/vigged.
NKG is nightkilling. It's based on how good you are at shooting power roles at night. 50 is a good score, since shooting a power role every other night would be solid play. My overall leans more towards my survival stat since I counted that as being more important when averaging things.
PRP is power role play. Same thing as town. One thing is only power roles that you actually get to target some1 count towards this stat. Bc I was a dolphin in a scumgame, but there's nothing you can do except flip and so there's nothing to rlly grade there.

Note: An average overall is actually about 56, not 50.


If y'all have any feedback on how to make the statistics more accurate or just have any idea to improve them, I'd be happy to listen or if you want me to calculate your mafia statistics, just post and I'd be happy to.
Last edited by Aronis on Thu Nov 26, 2015 5:28 pm, edited 10 times in total.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:30 pm

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

I would just use a variation of the Elo rating system, since it has been tried and tested. Furthermore, it does not assume that there is something like a "perfect" player. It is a relative and self-correcting system.

I also object to giving points for "not getting lynched". Sometimes getting lynched is inevitable, and sometimes it can help you to win the game. Your system is highly biased towards your preferred playing style.

Thus, I would only award points for winning the game. However, due to the nature of Mafia (and the many players involved), it will take some time before the rating starts to reflect your skills, so some might even consider a rating system for Mafia inappropriate.
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 10:37 pm

Post by chamber »

I would argue that not getting lynched is the single most important skill a player can posses.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:10 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

not getting lynched is important. i think (perhaps counter-intuitively) not getting killed at all is important, too

i get killed early on a lot when i'm town - it makes any contributions i have towards the game almost moot (at least in large games where people often disregard everything that happened before the last day phase) - i don't feel like, win or lose, i play much part in the game a lot of the time (and more often than not, whether town wins or loses when i'm town has almost nothing to do with me - i don't contribute much to wins a lot of the time and i like to think i don't contribute much to losses either)

ignoring the sheer number of games required for an ELO system to even start coming close to working, ELO is "tried and tested" in games where players more or less have (mostly) full control over wins and losses
spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh spiffeh
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:14 pm

Post by mastin2 »

chamber wrote:I would argue that not getting lynched is the single most important skill a player can posses.
And I would strongly disagree: While getting lynched as scum is generally worse than as town, getting lynched as scum can be a net-benefit if you are in a game where you have a playerlist that is looking for specific markers that you have deliberately manipulated to be misleading.
Getting lynched as town is not as bad as lynched when scum, and while it is still generally not a good thing, if you have the right playerlist, then they may be willing to listen to your reads after you are gone.

It's just highly situation-dependent.

Knowing
when
not to get lynched, though?
That
is a pretty good skill to have.
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:18 pm

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

In post 3, zMuffinMan wrote:ignoring the sheer number of games required for an ELO system to even start coming close to working, ELO is "tried and tested" in games where players more or less have (mostly) full control over wins and losses
True that. But in that case, a rating system may not work at all for Mafia (without bias, that is).
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:21 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

this also probably isn't a good system, anyway

if you have 100 in the TWN category, you're VERY unlikely to rate very highly in scum hunting and scum wagons. even if, say, you managed to lynch scum D1 in 60-75% of your games, you still probably wouldn't have a good picture of the game

now, i don't think anyone actually DOES die N1 every single game theyre town but it very easily illustrates the point

likewise, it's pretty easy to be on every scum wagon if you're the type of player who sheeps everything mindlessly and is unlikely to be NKed (i think everyone can think of a few players who fit this category)

scum is a little more complicated but i don't really have any issues with the metrics there and i think (contrary to anything mastin might suggest), not getting lynched as scum is the single most important thing for any scum player, no matter what. sure, if you do get lynched, it's not the end of the world and you can certainly do some interesting things while getting lynched but no, it's never better to be lynched than not be lynched
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:21 pm

Post by OceanWind »

A lot of the stuff you are using to grade players doesn't affect my perception of their skill level. As mafia, I'd say winrate is the largest indicator of skill. Poor scum players can sometimes win games if carried by their better partners but only good scum players will have a consistently high winrate. Conversely, if you are skilled at playing scum, you should win the majority of your games other than ones you got caught by a cop guilty and such. If you get lynched early as scum, how well you distanced from your partners may influence your win chances and reflect on your skills. If you made your partners look town and townies look like your partners, you are likelier to win and that's fair. So, I'd rank winrate much, much higher than survival rate but I'll also agree with Chamber that ability to not get lynched is an important skill as mafia. But in my opinion, it is secondary to winning.

Town games are a lot more complicated because you not only have to not get lynched, you have to lynch scum in order to win or you get endgamed. I'd say that the best indicator of town skill is how often you are lynching scum. If you get mislynched or endgamed, that's bad. Basically, winrate matters with the exception that if you are nightkilled by mafia early in the game and lose, that shouldn't affect your ELO/rank very much. This is just for VTs. If you are a PR, getting run up to a lynch, claiming, and getting nightkilled early is poor play.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:26 pm

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

but no, it's never better to be lynched than not be lynched
Again, this depends on the situation. In order to remove bias, we can only look at wins and losses.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Wed Nov 25, 2015 11:43 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

it never depends on the situation

in almost any situation where you could be lynched as scum, it is because you did something wrong (with the only exception being when your teammate does something incredibly risky/stupid that ties you to them, though i've so far not had that happen to me or role stuff that can't be prevented)

and in every situation, it is better to be alive than dead - if you cannot spin the same tale whilst you are alive that you think you can spin going down, then you're either very, very bad or you're lying to yourself

EDIT: actually, the only exception would be role reasons like if you have bro's role in imperishable night but that is a rarity
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:02 am

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

I have had some successes with the strategy. In the games I played, it became so successful, that at some point it was
expected
that scum sacrificed other scum (of course, always with the consent of fellow scum; often I would volunteer myself to make my scum buddies look trustworthy). Of course, it can also backfire, but it cannot be excluded that it may help you win in the end.

So, while I agree that it is probably best not to be lynched, it is impossible to say that it is never better to be lynched. So we simply cannot use this for ranking players.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:03 am

Post by mastin2 »

In post 9, zMuffinMan wrote:EDIT: actually, the only exception would be role reasons like if you have bro's role in imperishable night but that is a rarity
If by role reasons you mean things like "you have a cop guilty" on you, then yeah. There are situations where you can be lynched as scum for factors outside your control.

It is in exactly those situations where I advocate manipulating markers such that your death still serves to be a net-benefit for your team rather than a hindrance.
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:06 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

In post 10, AlwaysInnocent wrote:In the games I played, it became so successful, that at some point it was expected that scum sacrificed other scum

the only reason scum would ever need to "sacrifice" themselves is if at least one of them is playing badly, which leads back to my point - one of you must have done something wrong if you feel compelled to bus (even if that is just absence of doing right things)

In post 11, mastin2 wrote:If by role reasons you mean things like "you have a cop guilty" on you, then yeah. There are situations where you can be lynched as scum for factors outside your control.

no i mean like when you're an unrequited lover or when you're some other role that reeks havoc in death, then it is justifiable to get yourself killed at some point (though still probably less optimal than a perfect game)
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:10 am

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

We just bussed because it was fun. You can call it poor play, but if it wins the game, then does it really matter what your preferences are? A win is a win.

This is why I say that ranking should be based on wins/losses, not individual preferences about what constitutes a good game.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:43 am

Post by chamber »

In post 4, mastin2 wrote:
chamber wrote:I would argue that not getting lynched is the single most important skill a player can posses.
And I would strongly disagree: While getting lynched as scum is generally worse than as town, getting lynched as scum can be a net-benefit if you are in a game where you have a playerlist that is looking for specific markers that you have deliberately manipulated to be misleading.
Getting lynched as town is not as bad as lynched when scum, and while it is still generally not a good thing, if you have the right playerlist, then they may be willing to listen to your reads after you are gone.

It's just highly situation-dependent.

Knowing
when
not to get lynched, though?
That
is a pretty good skill to have.


No, it's just always bad. It might be less bad in some situations, or the best of plausible options you have open to you, but that's probably because of a lack of skill to open other better options.
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:46 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

In post 13, AlwaysInnocent wrote:We just bussed because it was fun. You can call it poor play, but if it wins the game, then does it really matter what your preferences are? A win is a win.

This is why I say that ranking should be based on wins/losses, not individual preferences about what constitutes a good game.

you realise if youre the one who is lynched there, and your team goes on to win because of it, it means you were literally replaceable by any player who isn't so incompetent that they can mess up being lynched

which means your argument for individual performance based on whether you win or lose falls flat on its face; you weren't even necessary to a win
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 2:56 am

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

In post 15, zMuffinMan wrote:you realise if youre the one who is lynched there, and your team goes on to win because of it, it means you were literally replaceable by any player who isn't so incompetent that they can mess up being lynched
Unless that lynch caused people to trust the bussers.

which means your argument for individual performance based on whether you win or lose falls flat on its face; you weren't even necessary to a win
See above. Also, suppose that I was not necessary for a win. Hell, let's say that my team was better off with another more competent player. Then it is likely that I will negatively contribute to other games in the future, which causes me to lose more often than someone who positively contributes, so that the rating of that player becomes higher than mine.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:24 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

ooh ooh do me next
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:34 am

Post by chamber »

In post 16, AlwaysInnocent wrote:
In post 15, zMuffinMan wrote:you realise if youre the one who is lynched there, and your team goes on to win because of it, it means you were literally replaceable by any player who isn't so incompetent that they can mess up being lynched
Unless that lynch caused people to trust the bussers.

which means your argument for individual performance based on whether you win or lose falls flat on its face; you weren't even necessary to a win
See above. Also, suppose that I was not necessary for a win. Hell, let's say that my team was better off with another more competent player. Then it is likely that I will negatively contribute to other games in the future, which causes me to lose more often than someone who positively contributes, so that the rating of that player becomes higher than mine.


Mafia has a lot of noise compared to many games that I know that use ELO. It could work in a format where way more games get played (I've played somewhere in the thousands for chat games for instance), but I'm not sure you'd ever hit a meaningful sample size in forum games.

(You are still wrong about getting lynched but it is a separate argument from why ELO has issues when applied to forum mafia).
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 3:44 am

Post by AlwaysInnocent »

In post 18, chamber wrote:Mafia has a lot of noise compared to many games that I know that use ELO. It could work in a format where way more games get played (I've played somewhere in the thousands for chat games for instance), but I'm not sure you'd ever hit a meaningful sample size in forum games.
Yep. That is probably true.

(You are still wrong about getting lynched but it is a separate argument from why ELO has issues when applied to forum mafia).
Yes, it is a different argument. In the majority of games, it is probably a bad strategy. But even if it works in just 1% of the games, then it would still be wrong to decrease the rating when it affected the game outcome positively. Suppose that no mafioso gets lynched beyond me getting bussed, because the town trusted them for lynching me, then it would be clear that it was a positive contribution (even if it fails in 99% of the other cases).
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:00 am

Post by Taly »

I don't necessarily believe being good scum is to avoid being lynched

My first (and so far only) scum game on this site - my scumteam won because they bussed me mid-game and got towncred that could ride them to the end.

It was planned.


So I don't think survival means everything for scum. However; I do tend to survive in a game much longer than what most people suspect (especially as SK ;3) - mostly as town.

Scum try to ring my mislynch a lot. :/ I fight back because I am usually correct.

>>>>


If I went off of my overall wins and losses as town/scum.

Town = 60%
Scum = 100%
3P = 100%

Though.... I rarely ever fucking flip scum, so winning my first mafia and anti-town game probably isn't a major merit. lol
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:03 am

Post by Taly »

I think a lot of being a good mafia player either as town or scum - is your influence. Your ability to understand and connect the dots in a game, whether it helps you catch scum - or keeps you from being caught - while killing off town.

In this respect - as I've said, I've been in a lot of games as town where people try to set-up my mislynch since I can be quite vocal and authentic as town.

But even then, there have been moments where I've had a huge case on someone - with a lot of growing velocity in my influence - and I partially changed the course of the game by catching scum when my mislynch was on the horizon.

Conversely, I've been perfectly correct about one thing - but then horribly wrong about the next as town and vice versa. So meh :P
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:22 am

Post by Wisdom »

I agree that winrate is the only metric that matters. There are a lot of ways to get to a win that might score less or more in those other metrics, but those won't accurately reflect skill. Winrate over a large enough sample should be the closest thing that can do it.
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:35 am

Post by chamber »

People don't have a large enough sample.
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Thu Nov 26, 2015 4:53 am

Post by Shadoweh »

zMuffinman's winrate is probably horrible. Not because of anything he did, but because what happens after he's dead isn't under his control. The thing about using straight winrate is Mafia is a team game and a lot of the time weak towns get carried by the strong ones. Or town/scumsided setups. coughteammafiacough
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