I Don't Like a Lot of the Guides

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Killthestory
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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:50 pm

In post 24, Antihero wrote:
In post 21, Killthestory wrote:I'd rather not diss specific guides since I know from experience that can hurt. Especially a guide that has actual hard work put into it.

Just think of the generalizations I've listed.

i think you're complaining about a problem that doesn't really exist. at least not on our wiki or in md.

i'm not familiar w/ other sites and their stuff to be able to say anything intelligent about them.

It exists here. I've read at least one problem already that I've already stated. Specific strategies I've seen also in guides. I haven't necessarily seen the playstyle problem, but I already said (I forgot what it was word by word) that it may or may not be applicable to this site

It's a problem with most sites, if not all. My last forum was the same before a couple of guys started making guides like these.

GreyICE
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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:27 pm

People are predictable. People believe they are unpredictable, but they are wrong. Even when people believe they are acting unpredictably they are usually acting predictably unpredictably - that is to say they are doing something unusual, but they are doing similar unusual things. You don't need to know a player to know how they're thinking.

There are many tells that are good. There are a few tells that are virtually perfect. Human thinking is flawed in extremely simple matters (the 50/50 fallacy is a common one, for instance)
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Killthestory
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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:59 pm

In post 26, GreyICE wrote:People are predictable. People believe they are unpredictable, but they are wrong. Even when people believe they are acting unpredictably they are usually acting predictably unpredictably - that is to say they are doing something unusual, but they are doing similar unusual things. You don't need to know a player to know how they're thinking.

There are many tells that are good. There are a few tells that are virtually perfect. Human thinking is flawed in extremely simple matters (the 50/50 fallacy is a common one, for instance)

edgy bro

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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:15 pm

Ah I can see the level of discussion you're looking for.

What, is this just another "I'm butthurt because I was lynched" thread?
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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:40 pm

In post 28, GreyICE wrote:Ah I can see the level of discussion you're looking for.

What, is this just another "I'm butthurt because I was lynched" thread?

no not really considering I haven't been lynched recently.

anyway people are different. Their tells are different. Sure, you can look at a player and figure out their playstyle and mindset during certain actions, but a tell isn't going to work the same way every time. The whole thing about people being predictable is also pure edge.

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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:42 pm

Meh, I kinda agree with GreyIce.
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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:44 pm

except humans aren't predictable. i mean sure, there's 7. something billion humans, people are bound to act similar. However, no two people are confirmed to act the same way with the same tells. It's possible, but I don't like going into a game with a mindset like that.

also predictable is still really edge.

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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:49 pm

But, each individual has their own playstyle.

So while these "tells" may not work on some people, they do on others. You have to learn how to guage a person's playstyle. I agree -- Humans don't tend to act predictable in the sense they do all the same stuff. Each one has an unique personality and playstyle. Once you learn how they play though, then you should be able to develop ways of telling their alignments.

"One Size Fits All" is never true, so trying to say that the posted scumtells and guides will work on everyone is definitely not true. But hamams ARE predictable in the way they do things, not ain the sense of a group, but as individuals, we are predictable.
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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:55 pm

Also, people tend to do whatever works best for them. The wiki articles, etc. point players in the direction of what tend to be best for *most* players.
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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:55 pm

That which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil

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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Wed Mar 23, 2016 11:28 pm


edgy articles bro.

predictable? maybe. However, that's such an edgy stereotype lmfao. It's like saying all white people are priveleged (thanks bernie). Like, sure, as a whole that can definitely seem the case, but people are unique lol.

anyway ircher just explained the basis of scumreading.

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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:32 am

That which is done out of love always takes place beyond good and evil

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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:21 am

I don't understand why you're being antagonistic to literally everyone who's engaged you on what you're talking about.
Or rather, I understand.
And I'm just pointing it out.

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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:12 am


People are predictable in the mass quantity that you want to demonstrate.

Because you start noticing trends, and patterns, it doesn't mean everyone works in the exact same fashion

You are assuming everyone believes their actions are random, which most know their actions aren't all random. They may do a few "random" actions, but I don't know anyone who thinks most of their actions are random. Or who attempt such. So yes, if target is monitoring your purchasing habits and other data very closely, they may realize something about you that you didn't know.

If you however are closely monitoring yourself and trying to control your behavior in certain fashion its very likely Target couldn't find out you were pregnant.

The benfords law isn't great demonstration of this either, I read article, I am an accountant, never heard of it being used in a audit. Looked a little deeper found out its been used as a analytic tool a few times at least. Sometimes when used they found the company had weird expenses which caused the anomaly in the "law" but found these tied to legitimate expenses. It also found that if your company has unusual or irregular events this will also throw off that law. So, may be slightly useful along with other analytic for predetermining a possible fraud, but its definitely not great. Not useless. Don't know how this applies to "humans can't be random" kind of goes with the universe isn't random.

The random number generator, I think I heard once about this, but I am wondering the pool. Just because X is the most popular choice, doesn't mean its the only one chosen. How big of a pool and how widely was it chosen?. Like I said, outliers and other things. You can find patterns in behavior, but that doesn't mean when people genuinely try to play outside the box it won't.

I mean if someone told you, 17 is the most popular number picked between 1-20. Now can you pick a random number right now, that was picked the least! That gets you to think in a different way, and probably makes it harder for a computer to predict. (maybe not over a huge sample of people, but harder than the one with vague information). I mean relating this to mafia, say people know the common strategy is X, they will then thing to do maybe Y, Z or even W instead.


The rock-paper-scissors one is good, I have heard of it. Except if your opponent has heard of it and is aware you are attemping it, it won't work. This is part of the reason why information like this breaks the cycle. Once people know the trick, it starts becoming less of a good method.

The 93% of human behavior is predictable, fine. I think you translating this horribly. We are talking about a game of mafia. Were you are supposed to lie and figure out who is lying. This means that some will attempt to random actions, because it has been shown in game theory to be greatly viable strategy (especially against a better opponent). Yes, on a large scale everyone is probably predictable. In a game where your goal is to be not predictable, yeah I think it can be done.

I don't agree that players are extremely predictable. Trends form over time, but there will always be outliers. Something that won't fit into a model of complete predictability, I mean whats to stop someone from preplanning actions out using a chart like :

I Scenario A do one of the following: 1,2,3,4.
If Scenario B do one of the following: 1,2,3,4

Then using an actual random number generator to determine your action.
How random would you call this? :)
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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 7:00 am

In post 19, Killthestory wrote:You can try to behave completely opposite of how you play now, and I test you to see if you do good for 2-3 games

what does "the opposite of how i play now" even mean (and what makes you think i don't already do this?), and why does it relate to whether or not it's possible to be really good while conforming to a generic guide on how to play?

besides which, even if you explained what you mean and i took up your challenge, it's entirely possible that i could get lucky over 2-3 games, or the opposite, so what would 2-3 games prove? kind of doesn't help your cause if a sample size of 2-3 games would mean you'd change your entire position
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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:49 pm

In post 39, zMuffinMan wrote:
In post 19, Killthestory wrote:You can try to behave completely opposite of how you play now, and I test you to see if you do good for 2-3 games

what does "the opposite of how i play now" even mean (and what makes you think i don't already do this?), and why does it relate to whether or not it's possible to be really good while conforming to a generic guide on how to play?

besides which, even if you explained what you mean and i took up your challenge, it's entirely possible that i could get lucky over 2-3 games, or the opposite, so what would 2-3 games prove? kind of doesn't help your cause if a sample size of 2-3 games would mean you'd change your entire position

just play what best works for you

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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:10 pm

haha i went about this the wrong way, and now only when im tired can i see it.

i have an emotional disorder lads. clearly this was an attention post apparently (i cant tell what the fuck this is.)

however, the best advice you can ever get is. I leave you with this

Play what works best for you

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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Fri Mar 25, 2016 5:45 am

Go easy on the vaccines next time.

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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Fri Mar 25, 2016 6:22 am

In post 34, GreyICE wrote:We are super fucking predictable - http://phys.org/news/2010-02-human-beha ... rcent.html

master scumhunter mislead by a clickbait article about the consistency of travel routines

a few studies on the enron emails are pretty interesting

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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Mon Mar 28, 2016 8:17 am

In post 41, Killthestory wrote:haha i went about this the wrong way, and now only when im tired can i see it.

i have an emotional disorder lads. clearly this was an attention post apparently (i cant tell what the fuck this is.)


Edgy bro
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