[proposition] town:scum winrate calculator

[Toto]

Do lylo situations empirically match the theoretical EV? I imagine mafia has a better chance than predicted due to quicklynch mechanichs.

[zoraster]

Well, I've theorized that it might be different:

In 3 person lylo, a town member has a 50/50 shot of placing his vote on mafia. Then he only has a 50/50 shot of the other town person placing his vote on mafia. So as town, voting first leads to a 25% EV win rate, and not a 33% which normal EV analysis would lead you to believe.

If Mafia DOES vote first, then town has a 50/50 shot of winning. The vote target can reflexively vote the mafia player, and the other town decides. The fact that mafia can quick lynch isn't really relevant from a theoretical standpoint, but this is:

mafia theoretically never have to be the first mover

. They can always force town to vote first (unless you're using a non-standard deadline mechanic) because the deadline reached leads to a no lynch.

In reality, not voting as mafia can come at a cost and seem scummy and if the above is acknowledged, voting first can be seen as town.

[Toto]

I did simulation a while back where on every step of a day phase a random player is chosen and votes another random player until a lynch is achieved.

On many simulations the ev matches the naive model. However if we add quicklynch in lylo to mafia (if there is an opportunity to win immediatelly they take it) then the wr for town go down. Note here mafia is not really making desicions when to vote so you cant infer their alignment.

I gues for larger than 3 players lylo it gets more complicated because town can infer someone not quicklynched is porbably mafia.

[zoraster]

I don't see why that'd be the case. I guess there's a theoretical thing where you could say Town A votes Mafia, Mafia votes Town B... and then Town B votes Town A, then Mafia switches to Town A, but that's a pretty silly scenario.

[Toto]

Yeah for 3 man lylo shouldnt change the result assuming every player has same chance of being first voter.