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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:17 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

In post 20, callforjudgement wrote:excessive swing is less fun than an imbalance
how does adding rather powerful roles (like roleblocker or <insert pretty much any unrestricted-via-modifiers role here>) reduce the swing?

theoretically setups should be aiming to have very low power (using modifiers or weaker roles altogether) distributed among more town players (such that any one town player dying isn't going to swing the game massively) and IF scum power is required, use the same principle
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 2:17 pm

Post by zoraster »

It doesn't reduce swing so much as it adds back agency to scum.
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 3:38 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

right, but it looks like callforjudgment was implying that one of the reasons scum gets so much power is because normal reviewers have to deal with swing as well as balance (otherwise, i don't really know what the point of bringing up swing was)

but this doesn't make a lot of sense...

especially in a normal game, if you're looking at town's power and you're worried about the game potentially ending day two then the more sensible approach would be to... reduce or change town's power, not add more scum power

that also solves the other problem he mentions about too much power concentrated in 1-2 players
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 5:35 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

I'm very leery of letting roleblockers into games I review. Preventing swing isn't a good reason to add a scum roleblocker (town roleblockers, sure, but not really scum roleblockers). The main reason to add a scum roleblocker into a game is as a method of preventing the game being broken by massclaim, and even then you need to put in a lot of safeguards to prevent the roleblocker taking over.

I was talking in general terms about the problems that go into reviewing, rather than about any particular problem. As I said, I feel it's quite possible that games are being misreviewed. (When I'm on a review team, it's not always the case, but sometimes I'm doing the lion's share of the reviewing and the other reviewers just do an /approve at the end. This leads to the possibility that some reviews I'm not on have nobody putting in effort, although it might just be that when one reviewer starts taking charge the others sit back, but everyone's willing to step up to the plate if nobody else has yet. I'm going to need to read some reviews for completed that didn't involve me at some point and see what I think of them.)
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 6:07 pm

Post by mastin2 »

This is one reason why I, as a reviewer, tell the mods to keep their setups simple.
Sure, there's nothing stopping them from having six or seven town PRs and then three mafia PRs.
That kind of setup could theoretically be balanced, and there's still vanilla townies in the game, plural!
...It's still not the kind of game you want to run as a Normal.
I'll generally advocate just one scum role, and then three PRs of reasonable strength or four town PRs of moderate strength.
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:02 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I seem to remember all of my games besides my last one saying that I thought it was balanced than the NRG trying to swing it in favour of scum.

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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:32 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 3, Ether wrote:But with that said, I do agree that mods/reviewers are often too quick to nerf things, and everyone forgets that towns are
really really stupid
.
Yeah that point. Most normal setups I think towns should crush, and I think the Matrix6 newbie setup should be ridiculously town-sided (except for the tracker/BP one). Towns just have an incredible tendency to be dumb and/or lazy.
In post 22, Antihero wrote:
In post 20, callforjudgement wrote:For example, excessive swing is less fun than an imbalance, often: if you make a setup where the scum can be effectively defeated by D2 and it actually happens, the scumteam will be very upset.
let 'em be upset

it's not the game designer's duty to protect scum from getting steamrolled when they're playing badly
Also, basically any game with a vig or SK can result in wolves getting destroyed.

That said, a mod who's designed a game where the wolves can get destroyed on D2 (for instance, cop/doc vs RB) has only himself to blame if the RB sucks and gets lynched D1 (/rants against cops).

PS if 11v2 mountainous is "disastrously scum-sided" then lol towns. 11v2 mountainous should be balanced AT WORST. I'm sorry but it's outright pathetic for towns to get pwned in setups where wolves need FIVE mislynches to just TWO correct lynches to win.
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 7:48 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

the mentality in that last paragraph is why scum keep getting buffs

ps: 11:2 mountainous isn't "disastrously" scum sided; it's just like 60-40

10:3 on the other hand
is
disastrously scum sided in mountainous (like 80-20)
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 8:20 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

In post 32, zMuffinMan wrote:ps: 11:2 mountainous isn't "disastrously" scum sided; it's just like 60-40
In actual games, it's 100-0. That could just be a small sample size, but it's kind-of too large a winrate to ignore.
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:15 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

uh...

sure, but old newbie setups used to be 7:2 mountainous 25% of the time and, while scum almost certainly won those more than town, it wasn't 100% scum wins

11:2 being 100% scum wins is likely for other reasons than it being 11:2
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 9:30 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Hmm, so let's look at some review topics for completed Mini Normals. I'm going to focus on ones I wasn't involved in (both so that I can give an "outside opinion" and to avoid any risk accidentally spoiling an ongoing game due to not realising it's ongoing). Other reviewers and people who chip in, feel free to review mine! It's always worth improving as a reviewer.


This is the most recent such topic (unless I've missed one). The original, mod-suggested setup was Tracker, Doctor, 1-shot BP, 7×VT vs. 1-shot Strongman, 2×Goon. The three reviewers rated that original setup as townsided, highly scumsided, and marginally scumsided but balanced enough to run.

This kind-of shocks me; to me, the setup is scumsided and highly so. (The easiest way to see this is to replace the Tracker with an unlimited Cop; I'd still be far from certain that the result is even townsided, let alone broken in town's favour which is what you'd expect after making that change in a hypothetical balanced setup.) So I agree with one of the reviewers but disagree with the other two. The final version of the setup was Cop, Jailkeeper, 1-shot BP, 7×VT vs. JOAT (watch/track/roleblock), 1-shot Strongman, Goon; this passed with basically no discussion. I'd be staring at that setup for hours trying to work out how balanced it was and probably writing paragraphs of text, asking the other reviewers to check my reasoning; it's not an easy setup to review and I'm glad I didn't have to review it, so I'm surprised at the relative speed of the review.

As it happens, scum won the actual game. Postgame discussion makes it seem as though it's unlikely the setup was responsible, or at least nobody in the game seemed to have problems with the setup (unless I missed something).


Next up is this review. The originally posted setup was Hated JK, Doctor, 7×VT versus 3×Weak Goon, Traitor (as an Open). I assess the setup in question as highly scumsided (being an Open gives town a lot of power but it isn't enough to balance the huge advantages scum have), and the reviewers in the thread agreed with me. So at least there's agreement there :-D The final setup was Weak Bodyguard, 3×Bodyguard, 6×VT vs. Ascetic Traitor, 2×Goon (as an Open). There was a lot of discussion about the setup before the reviewers decided it was balanced, and this is a setup that needs a lot of discussion and that I doubt I can come to a balance conclusion on without spending a lot of time (which probably isn't worth it for writing this post). The game ended in a town win; most of the effort the reviewers went to was ensuring that the game wasn't breakable for town (always a risk in an Open). After the game, one of the reviewers changed their mind about the setup and said that it was too swingy to run (and probably also townsided), and the scum were fairly depressed, although given how unusual the setup is I can't really blame the reviewers for missing the issue. (I'd probably have tried to persuade the mod to get the game reviewed by the community at large, though. There's no reason to keep an Open review secret.)
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:56 pm

Post by BBmolla »

Does weak actually apply to factional abilities
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:58 pm

Post by BBmolla »

my biggest issue with that setup is they got rid of the "kill traitor and you die" mechanic which was the coolest part.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:13 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

wrt balance and some of these formats being "scum sided" (even though they shouldn't be), one of my favorite quotes (from scum chat in my first game as mafia):
Never worry. The town just hasn't figured out how they are going to lose yet. It always happens.
(town won that one though :cry: )
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:02 am

Post by Zachrulez »

In post 32, zMuffinMan wrote:the mentality in that last paragraph is why scum keep getting buffs

ps: 11:2 mountainous isn't "disastrously" scum sided; it's just like 60-40

10:3 on the other hand
is
disastrously scum sided in mountainous (like 80-20)
You're actually quite a bit off. 11:2 is less than 30%. Don't know the actual numbers, because the wiki page on mafia theory doesn't list a town winrate for odds until 15p at 30.5% but it seems to be somewhere in the high 20s.
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:37 am

Post by zoraster »

In post 31, mhsmith0 wrote:PS if 11v2 mountainous is "disastrously scum-sided" then lol towns. 11v2 mountainous should be balanced AT WORST. I'm sorry but it's outright pathetic for towns to get pwned in setups where wolves need FIVE mislynches to just TWO correct lynches to win.
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We come to this point often in discussions about balance. People make claims about what town SHOULD be able to do, with nothing but their intuition to back it up. But mods should be working in the real world, and even if you say that town is universally "dumb" (a premise that I don't necessarily agree with), you should be balancing the game to account for that. Balancing toward some ideal in your head that's never going to exist is not balancing at all.
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Post Post #41 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:54 am

Post by mith »

In post 39, Zachrulez wrote:
In post 32, zMuffinMan wrote:the mentality in that last paragraph is why scum keep getting buffs

ps: 11:2 mountainous isn't "disastrously" scum sided; it's just like 60-40

10:3 on the other hand
is
disastrously scum sided in mountainous (like 80-20)
You're actually quite a bit off. 11:2 is less than 30%. Don't know the actual numbers, because the wiki page on mafia theory doesn't list a town winrate for odds until 15p at 30.5% but it seems to be somewhere in the high 20s.
EV for 11:2 is 39.49% (1186/3003). EV for 9:2 is 35.21%. EV for 10:3 is 20.78%.

The wiki page for Mountainous has the wrong numbers (and even those aren't under 30%). It's correct on the EV Project page, and I've started a new EV thread here with even more detail. I'm hoping to make an effort on updating and creating a bunch of pages for Vanilla Variants as part of this.

Personally, I would love to see a large number of 11:2 (or whatever) games run just to see how the town actually does with a large sample size.
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Post Post #42 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:56 am

Post by zoraster »

Personally, I'm a fan of White Flag as an alternative to mountainous. To balance mountainous requires kind of a dull amount of time. And when you talk about EV, a big portion of the town's win rate is built into the later lynches anyway, so the larger you make a game to account for balance, the less town win rate you're getting from each additional townie (or more properly: sets of two townies)
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Post Post #43 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 4:58 am

Post by Ircher »

I considered running 13:2 mountainous in the Large Normal queue (closed) to see how people react, but then reconsidered since it had to pass balance reviews amongst other things.
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Post Post #44 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:02 am

Post by mith »

Maybe I'll run a Vanilla tournament. And say "Vanilla" so many times that people stop using the M word just to get me to stop.

(FWIW, I agree that White Flag is more interesting, as are some other Vanilla Variants. I might be slightly biased though. The really nice thing about White Flag conceptually is that it preserves one of the fundamental design tenants throughout the game - just as in Vanilla the town is always an uninformed
majority
until they lose, in White Flag the scum are always a
group
until they lose.)
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Post Post #45 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:09 am

Post by Zachrulez »

In post 41, mith wrote:
In post 39, Zachrulez wrote:
In post 32, zMuffinMan wrote:the mentality in that last paragraph is why scum keep getting buffs

ps: 11:2 mountainous isn't "disastrously" scum sided; it's just like 60-40

10:3 on the other hand
is
disastrously scum sided in mountainous (like 80-20)
You're actually quite a bit off. 11:2 is less than 30%. Don't know the actual numbers, because the wiki page on mafia theory doesn't list a town winrate for odds until 15p at 30.5% but it seems to be somewhere in the high 20s.
EV for 11:2 is 39.49% (1186/3003). EV for 9:2 is 35.21%. EV for 10:3 is 20.78%.

The wiki page for Mountainous has the wrong numbers (and even those aren't under 30%). It's correct on the EV Project page, and I've started a new EV thread here with even more detail. I'm hoping to make an effort on updating and creating a bunch of pages for Vanilla Variants as part of this.

Personally, I would love to see a large number of 11:2 (or whatever) games run just to see how the town actually does with a large sample size.
Might be worthwhile to replace or eliminate the incorrect entry, as that's been my reference point for mountainous for some time. Wasn't even aware that there was a corrected page.
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Post Post #46 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:44 am

Post by implosion »

In post 40, zoraster wrote:
In post 31, mhsmith0 wrote:PS if 11v2 mountainous is "disastrously scum-sided" then lol towns. 11v2 mountainous should be balanced AT WORST. I'm sorry but it's outright pathetic for towns to get pwned in setups where wolves need FIVE mislynches to just TWO correct lynches to win.
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We come to this point often in discussions about balance. People make claims about what town SHOULD be able to do, with nothing but their intuition to back it up. But mods should be working in the real world, and even if you say that town is universally "dumb" (a premise that I don't necessarily agree with), you should be balancing the game to account for that. Balancing toward some ideal in your head that's never going to exist is not balancing at all.
Bless this post.

Mafia is a damn hard game. We all know that EVs don't actually equate to real-world win rates, but I've always sort of looked at them as balanced out by two competing forces: the scum advantage and the town advantage. The scum have plenty of advantages: they have numbers that they can rely on, so that they can push lynches through; they have the luxury of being able to push whoever they want, etc. The town's only advantage over the winrate that they would get by actioning randomly and following EVs is scumhunting. And scumhunting, while the core of mafia, is really, really hard. Especially so on, of all settings, a forum. I think forum mafia, and even MORE especially forum mafia in the context of very long deadlines, is probably the most difficult medium to find scum in. In face to face, you can see gestures, you can see facial expressions and body language, you can see immediate reactions to things. In IRC-based media you don't have access to all of that but you can still see people immediately reacting to things. Everything happens quickly enough that everything is fresh in peoples' minds. On a forum, while the town also gets to reason out whatever they want, the scum have the luxury of all the time in the world that they want to consider exactly how they can approach a game to look as town as possible. Criticizing towns for winning below EV with all of those scum advantages is, like zoraster said, just playing up an ideal that has no grounding in reality, specifically the ideal that scumhunting isn't
that
hard to get right. Of course 90% of this paragraph is speculation so /rant.
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Post Post #47 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:50 am

Post by callforjudgement »

For what it's worth, even though I love White Flag as a setup and think we should keep running them, I
also
think it's scumsided in practice (although possibly not as scumsided as the results on the wiki page make it look).

But then, I also feel that (in practice; obviously not in theory) 2:9 is more townsided than 2:11 (because in 2:11 scum have more time to NK competent scumhunters before the game gets into the low numbers where scum are easier to identify). So I guess my balance opinion on vanilla games is quite a way off where the public opinion is.
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Post Post #48 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:23 am

Post by mith »

In post 47, callforjudgement wrote:(although possibly not as scumsided as the results on the wiki page make it look)
2 wins out of 7 is not anywhere close to a statistically significant result on the "actual" balance (never mind that only 5 are actually listed on the page, and one of those was 11p).

I think the actual results are skewed a bit by the fact that town has fallen multiple times for the gambit play; over the long run, and as players become more aware of the possibility of that gambit, I would expect win percentage to trend back toward EV, if not even a bit on the town side of the EV. Regardless, there is not enough data to suggest that the win percentage of a large sample would be significantly different from the EV anyway.
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Post Post #49 (ISO) » Fri Jul 08, 2016 7:32 am

Post by mith »

(If someone wants to compile a list of Vanilla games with counts and results, I'll be happy to do some statistics on those as well. The wiki is not at all thorough with game records.)
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