Vote Change Frequency Theory

[Firebringer]

So, I have semi working theory lately, and its mostly something I noticed in my observations of players and vote changes. Forewarning ahead of time, I don't believe this is telling for all players, but I think it can be for some.

Now this can be maybe subsection if guess of vote count analysis but its really just tracking the specific vote changes of a player. Who they voted/unvoted and how often they would vote change over a game/time span.

I have noticed some players can widely change this behavior between alignments. I have seen some who go massive conservative with vote changes in scum but very liberal in it as town. Sometimes its true of the inverse, but that I think I have only seen once.

So this is kind of general question with me already giving you thoughts on subject.

How much do you think you change your vote during a game depending on alignment as the only variable? [This is ignoring reads/situations/all else]

[mastina]

When I cast a vote, short of using the bold tag, I've no intention of removing it any time soon.
If I happen to move it, well, circumstances change, and that new person is who I will instead vote.
These apply regardless of alignment because it's common sense to me: voting is one of the two tools you have, so not using it is a waste. Throwing it around on every player willy nilly devalues the vote. So I only move when it means something.

If any pattern exists at all, it's that if I remain in the Not Voting category, lynch me; I'm scum.

[callforjudgement]

Sometimes as scum I badly need to keep my options open for theory reasons. This tends to cause me to be even more cautious to vote in lylo/mylo than I normally would. (However, I'm also pretty cautious in this respect as town, so I think it's hard to scumhunt me this way. Additionally, I would totally break this scum meta intentionally if I had a good opportunity, i.e. if there's no theory reason to wait; this is the same with all my scum metas I'm aware of, for obvious reasons.)

In terms of keeping a vote out generally, I'm a believer that I should always vote for my strongest scumread unless there's a theory reason to do something else (e.g. compromising on a lynch near deadline). Early in the game, when there isn't much evidence in the thread, my strongest scumread tends to change repeatedly as more data comes in. Later in the game, it's more stable (to the point of tunnelling sometimes, which is a habit I really need to get out of). One of the purposes of this is to make me easier to read when I'm town (although I'm not all that bad at faking it when I'm scum, so it's only partially helpful).

[BrainpanSonata]

I'm usually loathe to start/join a vote unless I have strong enough tells/case against the player in question, so once I've hit upon a likely suspect, I tend to dig in my heels until contradictory evidence comes into play. Even with a vote that I feel strongly confident about, I tend to keep up a dialogue with the votee and with other players to get more tells that will possibly confirm or disprove my suspicions.

Since my scumplay isn't always as strong as my townplay, I suppose struggling to maintain a flimsy case could be a scumtell for me.

[mykonian]

So, I have semi working theory lately, and its mostly something I noticed in my observations of players and vote changes. Forewarning ahead of time, I don't believe this is telling for all players, but I think it can be for some.

Now this can be maybe subsection if guess of vote count analysis but its really just tracking the specific vote changes of a player. Who they voted/unvoted and how often they would vote change over a game/time span.

I have noticed some players can widely change this behavior between alignments. I have seen some who go massive conservative with vote changes in scum but very liberal in it as town. Sometimes its true of the inverse, but that I think I have only seen once.

So this is kind of general question with me already giving you thoughts on subject.

How much do you think you change your vote during a game depending on alignment as the only variable? [This is ignoring reads/situations/all else]

I'm pretty sure this used to be a tell, or at least a lot of older players covered for it in some way. It was one of the things I used to be careful about as scum, making sure it moved around enough, which tended to get me one or two esspecially old players to townread me. Similarly active as town, but then I don't have to think about it.

You can somewhat refine the tell, imo, which means you go away from simple counting and move to a bit more reading, if you look at particular wagons. Everybody looks how wagons form, but if votes are moving less as you say, what's interesting is who remains after the wagon fails, taking their time for the next vote. This time is quite related to how active their vote is, but is more specific as it's on a critical person and time.

[callforjudgement]

Well, that's related to the "I've stopped scumreading person X but am still voting for them" tell. That's one of the strongest objective scumtells I know; most scum don't fall for it nowadays, but it's very rare for a townie to not move their vote when their reads change, whereas scum often seem to forget for some reason.

[Zachrulez]

I'm sure I have tended to be way more conservative with my vote, but if this was the only tell someone was chasing in a case against me I'm sure I could manipulate it.

[Postie]

Well, that's related to the "I've stopped scumreading person X but am still voting for them" tell. That's one of the strongest objective scumtells I know; most scum don't fall for it nowadays, but it's very rare for a townie to not move their vote when their reads change, whereas scum often seem to forget for some reason.

Dammit I totally do this.

[Cheery Dog]

Well, that's related to the "I've stopped scumreading person X but am still voting for them" tell. That's one of the strongest objective scumtells I know; most scum don't fall for it nowadays, but it's very rare for a townie to not move their vote when their reads change, whereas scum often seem to forget for some reason.

I left my vote on a someone that became a town-read of mine shortly after I'd placed it as town for the remainder of the day. Of course I was aware they weren't actually getting lynched, but I don't find that to be very good tell for that reason.

More to do with disinterest in the game than any alignment tells. Which i suppose mafia members might care less about the day play

[Realeo]

How much do you think you change your vote during a game depending on alignment as the only variable? [This is ignoring reads/situations/all else]

My only voting tell is how quick do I make my first vote. After that, I am a liberal voter regardless of my alignment.

[kuribo]

I have a quote I like to use when people ask me why I have or haven't voted a certain way:

"I'll change my vote whenever I damn well please and not a moment until." I will even keep my vote on someone out of stubbornness just to not give someone the satisfaction of seeing me unvote after they mention it.

This applies regardless of alignment because as town, I refuse to take orders from someone whose alignment I don't know.

And as scum, I believe I should be allowed to do whatever I want, whenever I want, and without repercussions.

[callforjudgement]

I guess we'd get on well; if someone fails to change their vote in a way that almost certainly implies they're scum, I tend to just keep giving small hints and see how long it takes them to notice. (Then lynch them, if I can.)

[Ranmaru]

When I am town I go with the flow and vote freely. As scum I vote with an agenda so to switch I need to plan it ahead of time.

[Skybird]

I'm very conservative with my vote as either alignment.

[rb]

it's more important why the votes happened or didn't happen or changed

[DarkInnocence]

I move my vote a lot as either alignment.

[Psyche]

So, I have semi working theory lately, and its mostly something I noticed in my observations of players and vote changes. Forewarning ahead of time, I don't believe this is telling for all players, but I think it can be for some.

Now this can be maybe subsection if guess of vote count analysis but its really just tracking the specific vote changes of a player. Who they voted/unvoted and how often they would vote change over a game/time span.

I have noticed some players can widely change this behavior between alignments. I have seen some who go massive conservative with vote changes in scum but very liberal in it as town. Sometimes its true of the inverse, but that I think I have only seen once.

So this is kind of general question with me already giving you thoughts on subject.

How much do you think you change your vote during a game depending on alignment as the only variable? [This is ignoring reads/situations/all else]

I never thought about this.
If the Great VCA ever happens, I'll test your theory.

[Psyche]

You can somewhat refine the tell, imo, which means you go away from simple counting and move to a bit more reading, if you look at particular wagons. Everybody looks how wagons form, but if votes are moving less as you say, what's interesting is who remains after the wagon fails, taking their time for the next vote. This time is quite related to how active their vote is, but is more specific as it's on a critical person and time.

dis too

[Gamma Emerald]

I move my vote a lot as either alignment.

what

[callforjudgement]

Well, if you move it a lot as town, and are aware of that, you'd have to move it a lot as scum too in order to not stand out.

[Gamma Emerald]

BTW DI is a hydra so I don't know why they are posting here.

[callforjudgement]

It's possible that a hydra changes votes more than either head would individually (e.g. because they disagree with each other and prefer to argue in-thread).

[Gamma Emerald]

Hydra dissonance talk is fun yo