Mini Normal Stats - 10v3 Games

mhsmith0 · Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:11 pm

Neapolitan can also HARD clear vts, which is pretty useful since those are the primarily lynchable slots.

ironstove · Post Post #26 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:47 pm

Where are you getting all of these stats?

ironstove · Post Post #27 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:48 pm

Let me rephrase, how can I also get a copy of these stats to run my own analysis?

mhsmith0 · Post Post #28 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:57 pm

I get data feeds from the mini normal archive, which I then analyze in excel. Note that in the data stream posts I've made, I've actually edited / standardized naming conventions (alignment then role except for vt; "One-Shot" instead of "1-shot", etc). See post #1 for edited data stream.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #29 (ISO) » Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:00 pm

Fwiw the prevalence of godfather games in the early part of the data kinda messes with the validity of what we see (notably godfather nerds the hell out of cop, which is no longer the case). There are also a few setups that are simply very non standard balance wise (such as a couple that only had two town PRs).

mhsmith0 · Post Post #30 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:43 pm

data from previous run

Overall (all 10v3 mini normal games that I was able to count... possibly excluding a few)
50 - 76, 40%
(note that those are town W/L and win %)

Games with a Mafia Traitor
(I break this out explicitly because they're structurally different, since traitor [presuming it's a role that can't be recruited and that does get endgamed if teammates die] is like half a mafia member)
6 - 4, 60%

Spoiler: Games with a Town or Mafia member with a common modifier

Spoiler: Games with common town power roles

Spoiler: Games with common mafia power roles

mhsmith0 · Post Post #31 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:51 pm

updated data

Overall (all 10v3 mini normal games that I was able to count... possibly excluding a few)
55 - 82, 40%
(note that those are town W/L and win %)

Games with a Mafia Traitor
(I break this out explicitly because they're structurally different, since traitor [presuming it's a role that can't be recruited and that does get endgamed if teammates die] is like half a mafia member)
6 - 4, 60%

Spoiler: Games with a Town or Mafia member with a common modifier

Spoiler: Games with common town power roles

Spoiler: Games with common mafia power roles

callforjudgement · Post Post #32 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:31 pm

Are the Mafia power role sections showing Town winrates or Mafia winrates?

Either way, though, Mafia Roleblocker seems closer to balanced than previous statistics have implied, so maybe reviewers are doing a better job now of judging its power.
I fear that much of the results here are dominated by noise, though. I'd say that the most concerning stat is the Town Jailkeeper one; it's a commonly used role, and yet it seems like it's being consistently overestimated. (This is possibly due to mods judging it against Newbies? It's in the Newbie rotation, so many players will be familiar with it from there, but it becomes substantially more powerful the smaller the game is, so if you put it in a Mini it won't have quite the same impact.)

The Miller results are even more extreme, but I find them unsurprising; many of the mods who place Millers are either trying to give counters to town power (that rarely ends well), or trying to do something too clever/cute with their setups (likewise).

mhsmith0 · Post Post #33 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:04 pm

Mafia powers show town win rates, I.e. Town wins >50% in mafia Roleblocker games, which may suggest we're balancing out Roleblocker power TOO much.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #34 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 1:47 pm

updated data

Overall (all 10v3 mini normal games that I was able to count... possibly excluding a few)
56 - 87, 39%
(note that those are town W/L and win %)

Games with a Mafia Traitor
(I break this out explicitly because they're structurally different, since traitor [presuming it's a role that can't be recruited and that does get endgamed if teammates die] is like half a mafia member)
6 - 4, 60%

Spoiler: Games with a Town or Mafia member with a common modifier

Spoiler: Games with common town power roles

Spoiler: Games with common mafia power roles

Ranmaru · Post Post #35 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 3:10 pm

In post 7, Firebringer wrote:I looked at this, then saw how common it was to put masons in games and i cried a little inside.
Such a terrible role.

No. It's the best.

Oversoul · Post Post #36 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 11:22 pm

I had a feeling we were not properly balancing Mini Normals. Mainly from seeing the recent prevalence of One-shot Bulletproof. That seems like an awful role.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #37 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 4:43 am

one shot bp is fine as a role, it just very much can't carry a town. i think part of it is that the nerfing that comes from gating a role (especially x shot instead of odd/even night) is generally underestimated.

Oversoul · Post Post #38 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 5:41 am

Which games featured the various one-shot BP? I think it is a functionally useless role. Entirely dependent on the player. I think of it as similar to an innocent child.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #39 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 5:50 am

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=29549

Spoiler: Game # List

Oversoul · Post Post #40 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 2:47 pm

Game Winner
1499 Mafi - end gamed, not shot
1509 Mafi - lynched, not shot
1521 Mafi - end games, not shot
1540 Town - end gamed, shot by Vig
1575 Town - lynched, not shot
1658 Mafi - end gamed, not shot
1666 Mafi - killed during night, shot by Vig AND Mafia
1689 Town - end gamed, not shot
1719 Mafi - end gamed, not shot
1720 Town - end gamed, shot by Mafia night 1
1725 Mafi - killed during night, shot by Mafia two nights in a row
1741 Town - end gamed, shot by mafia
1749 Mafi - killed during night, shot by mafia*
1796 Mafi - lynched, not shot
1805 Mafi - lynched, not shot
1836 Town - end gamed, shot by mafia
1841 Mafi - end gamed, not shot
1865 Mafi - lynched, not shot
1875 Town - end gamed, not shot

---

Of the 19 games cataloged her, 12 of the bulletproof townies did not get shot.
The 3 bulletproof townies that were outright killed during the night were, interestingly enough, all mafia wins.
I put the asterisk on 1749 because it was a One-shot BP Bodyguard which is why it died.

I guess I am not as mad about it as I was this afternoon. I just hate how it becomes an IC of sorts that almost always goes to endgame. I just don't like the role from a design standpoint because it encourages bad behavior via a fakeclaim to draw the kill. If multiple killing roles exist, sure, the existence of the BP is justified. Solely against a mafia team, though? Probably not justified.

It wins only 37% of the time? With town only winning 39% I guess that is reasonable.

callforjudgement · Post Post #41 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 2:52 pm

The normal balance reason behind a town BP is if you think there's a decent chance the game will end up on evens; it gives town another chance to buy a mislynch. (Typically these games would have a Doctor in as well.) However, it doesn't really work in anything but the smallest games, as otherwise the scum kill is too likely to just always aim elsewhere.

implosion · Post Post #42 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 2:55 pm

In post 40, Oversoul wrote:I just don't like the role from a design standpoint because it encourages bad behavior via a fakeclaim to draw the kill.

I'd argue it encourages good town play, so as to draw the nightkill naturally. I don't think it's good play to fakeclaim as a 1-shot bulletproof in a mini normal; you risk drawing a counterclaim, you risk the town not believing your claim and going after you, you risk the town not believing your bulletproof claim once you come clean.

Even if you get shot it still doesn't necessarily act as a pseudo-IC either, unless you were an obvious target for a nightkill in which case you were already townread. There might be other town protective/blocking roles. The mafia might fakeclaim a protective/blocking role. etc.

cfj wrote:(Typically these games would have a Doctor in as well.)

Makes even more sense with a vig, especially a 1-shot vig, which sort of requires multiple ways to restore parity to make any sense as a role in an odd-sized game.

Oversoul · Post Post #43 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 2:56 pm

I think Bp is a poor design choice if worried about ending up even. You should add another player, if anything, when you are worried about ending up on evens.

The town win rate is really sad though. Have towns just gotten worse?

implosion · Post Post #44 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 2:58 pm

Towns have probably gotten a bit worse, but people have always been terrible at judging the balance of mafia setups in the first place. IIRC, there's always been a skew, and that skew went down by like 5-10 percentage points when Hoopla pointed out that capping mini games at 12 players was dumb because 3:9 setups were horrible and scumsided, but it was still a skew.

Oversoul · Post Post #45 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 3:03 pm

Hmm... I think after getting shot, a BP becomes an IC essentially.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #46 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 3:09 pm

Bp gives town extra kill stopping power. It can do reasonably well alongside some combo of vig, doc, jailkeeper, Roleblocker. It also CAN be used as more or less a named townie in a more investigative enact setup, tho that's probably more unusual.

It's a role that is ok to toss in as a supporting cast type of role. If you intend it to really carry, your design is probably busted tho.

Oversoul · Post Post #47 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 3:09 pm

I will have to check the composition of those games to see if they had any additional protective roles.

mhsmith0 · Post Post #48 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 3:11 pm

I've had them in 10v3 mini normals I designed twice

1) vig
Doc
Tracker
Bp
Vs
Encryptor
One shot strongman
Goon

2)
Jailkeeper
Roleblocker
Bp
Fruit vendor
Vs goons

Scum won both, but each was fairly close.

Oversoul · Post Post #49 (ISO) » Wed May 17, 2017 11:58 pm

In post 46, mhsmith0 wrote:Bp gives town extra kill stopping power. It can do reasonably well alongside some combo of vig, doc, jailkeeper, Roleblocker. It also CAN be used as more or less a named townie in a more investigative enact setup, tho that's probably more unusual.

It's a role that is ok to toss in as a supporting cast type of role. If you intend it to really carry, your design is probably busted tho.

That's fair. If there are other killstppping powers it seems ok. But right now it gives town extra kill stopping power when 63% of the time, it never gets shot?