Most likely revisiting an old topic: 3 Town Vs. 1 Scum

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Post Post #25 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:15 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 24, Accountant wrote:Have you ever considered that maybe they were simply correcting an error they found in the universe
No.
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Post Post #26 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 2:50 pm

Post by Accountant »

now you have
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Post Post #27 (ISO) » Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:53 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

I think the best way to look at it is in the sense of:

Is there one player, that if they were the one that was NKed, your reads on the remaining players would not change. If there is a player who if they got NKed your pick for scum would not change, then you should not no lynch because they are the most likely player to die and you are in the same position without anyone you are confident in being town.

If you ARE in a situation where your reads could drastically change regardless of who dies, then you should want to no lynch.

Basically its the question of: Does the obvious NK dying change anything?
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Post Post #28 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:15 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 23, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 22, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 21, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 18, Realeo wrote:There is an ongoing game?

NIce. I need to observe it.
It was tongue and cheek.
*tongue in cheek
Do you have something to add to the OP or pertaining to it in some way or are you just trying to discredit me?
yes to the first, no to the second
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Post Post #29 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:04 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 28, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 23, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 22, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 21, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 18, Realeo wrote:There is an ongoing game?

NIce. I need to observe it.
It was tongue and cheek.
*tongue in cheek
Do you have something to add to the OP or pertaining to it in some way or are you just trying to discredit me?
yes to the first, no to the second
K, don't let me hold you back.
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Post Post #30 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:07 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 27, LlamaFluff wrote:I think the best way to look at it is in the sense of:

Is there one player, that if they were the one that was NKed, your reads on the remaining players would not change. If there is a player who if they got NKed your pick for scum would not change, then you should not no lynch because they are the most likely player to die and you are in the same position without anyone you are confident in being town.

If you ARE in a situation where your reads could drastically change regardless of who dies, then you should want to no lynch.

Basically its the question of: Does the obvious NK dying change anything?
This actually does make sense to me since the universally Town read person can act as leader (potentially) and can be a front runner in who to lynch. Not as strong as a cleared or IC, but close enough that it can really change the outcome of the game. Its good to have someone who you can trust to a high degree in those situations.
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Post Post #31 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:48 am

Post by callforjudgement »

I've seen the obvious NK in 3:1 be scum often enough that I think the silent skip should always be attempted unless there's reason to believe that there's more than one nightkill. (If there's an obvious townie, you might want them to give an updated reads list / reasoning before the game ends; still a skip, but less silent.)

Sure, there's WIFOM in who dies, but at least you know for sure that the player who ends up dying was town. (And WIFOM isn't informationless.)
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· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
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Post Post #32 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:23 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 31, callforjudgement wrote:I've seen the obvious NK in 3:1 be scum often enough that I think the silent skip should always be attempted unless there's reason to believe that there's more than one nightkill. (If there's an obvious townie, you might want them to give an updated reads list / reasoning before the game ends; still a skip, but less silent.)

Sure, there's WIFOM in who dies, but at least you know for sure that the player who ends up dying was town. (And WIFOM isn't informationless.)
K, this is also a good perspective. I do have a question though. What if one or two people remaining in the game were/are on a Town block? What would be the difference between one person left on the Town block and two?
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Post Post #33 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:40 am

Post by callforjudgement »

If there's a player who's mechanically confirmed, and no reason to believe that they can be protected, that's a good reason to lynch right away.

If they aren't mechanically confirmed, but just widely townread, make scum kill them. You might be surprised.
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· scam · seam · team · term · tern · torn ·
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Post Post #34 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:22 pm

Post by LlamaFluff »

In post 33, callforjudgement wrote:If there's a player who's mechanically confirmed, and no reason to believe that they can be protected, that's a good reason to lynch right away.

If they aren't mechanically confirmed, but just widely townread, make scum kill them. You might be surprised.
Still depends on some things. If there are two players who fit that bill, its probably bad to no lynch since one would die and it wouldn't have much impact on the game. If town read A is scum they just kill town read B.

If scum has got themselves in the "confirmed" town spot in a final four, it probably depends who else is alive if it actually does anything. If there is a general consensus that Player A is town, Player B is probably town, and players C and D hold scum... not as useful.

If you have three players who are likely to be lynched, then you might move more towards that category. Depending on who the town player who is read as town though is, still might not work. As scum in that situation where I am in the group of 3, if I read that the town player sees me as favorable and there is another player that I view as a threat (right reads, sway with conf-town, strong player, etc) you can argue killing them is right.

Its not set in stone, but I think when there is a consensus town it makes the most sense to just assume they are town. The question is which situation is more likely

1) They are scum and actually get lynched
2) They are town and scum manages to WIFOM town into lynching them in F3

I think outside of a situation where there all other three players could easily be lynched, you just move forward in F4 with a player that the rest of the game is comfortable calling town.
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Post Post #35 (ISO) » Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:32 pm

Post by Accountant »

In post 33, callforjudgement wrote:If there's a player who's mechanically confirmed, and no reason to believe that they can be protected, that's a good reason to lynch right away.

If they aren't mechanically confirmed, but just widely townread, make scum kill them. You might be surprised.
I was the scum once in this situation. I'm so glad they didn't NL.
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Post Post #36 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:51 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

generally lynching is better. unless their is a circumstance meaning that lynching immediately is a better idea, you are mathematically more likely to win in the 2v1
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Post Post #37 (ISO) » Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:26 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 36, Randomnamechange wrote:generally lynching is better. unless their is a circumstance meaning that lynching immediately is a better idea, you are mathematically more likely to win in the 2v1
OMG Titus! is that DA:I talk? gunna have to chat with you about that.
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Post Post #38 (ISO) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:18 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 37, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 36, Randomnamechange wrote:generally lynching is better. unless their is a circumstance meaning that lynching immediately is a better idea, you are mathematically more likely to win in the 2v1
OMG Titus! is that DA:I talk? gunna have to chat with you about that.
?
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Post Post #39 (ISO) » Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:43 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 38, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 37, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 36, Randomnamechange wrote:generally lynching is better. unless their is a circumstance meaning that lynching immediately is a better idea, you are mathematically more likely to win in the 2v1
OMG Titus! is that DA:I talk? gunna have to chat with you about that.
?
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Post Post #40 (ISO) » Sun Jan 15, 2017 2:44 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 39, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 38, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 37, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 36, Randomnamechange wrote:generally lynching is better. unless their is a circumstance meaning that lynching immediately is a better idea, you are mathematically more likely to win in the 2v1
OMG Titus! is that DA:I talk? gunna have to chat with you about that.
?
"Tevinter is an all Town Masonry." That's where I got that from, your sig. Tevinter is a region in the Dragon Age universe, like a kingdom.
Oh that lol forgot about it :P
basically it was a joke from the fact that titus spent the whole game proclaiming a neighbourhood to be a masonry when in fact it wasn't.
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