Newbie Game Player Ratings
- Raskolnikov
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Raskolnikov
- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
It's possible, but I think the big issue is that the sample size is much lower (not all mini normals are 10/3, and they are slower to fill than newbie games) So I could do a separate model there, but I strongly suspect there'd be very few players who have enough data even to hit the 8x town threshold, which means that I'd guess it'd be a lot less interesting.
Also setup meta varies from time to time, and whereas a lot of data exists to demonstrate that matrix6 is pretty blaanced across setups (all are 40-60% town win rate, and few would basically only rand the most favorable or most unfavorable setups), I strongly suspect that there have been a number of mini normal setups that are simply unbalanced, in either direction, which means there's more rand luck in the results.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- Raskolnikov
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Raskolnikov
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
ahh I see
mmm, aren't most of the people in any given newbie unlikely to reach that threshold anyways before they siteflake/move onto other queues? whereas most people in each mini seem to hang around. just speculation though idk
can't argue against the balance concern though (esp all those games i lost of course), and I guess realeo already sorta did it- Ircher
-
Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
- Ircher
He / Him / His- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15190
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
new update, v1.009:
Update for 1792, 1797, 1799, 1800, 1801, 1802, 1803, 1804, 1805:
Spoiler: v1.009 results
Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Interesting changes and other notes:
Not massively (Drixx's scum rating dropped his overall rating a lot, but I think that was fairly predictable from looking at the record pre-update). One interesting thing I've started to play with is potentially breaking games up into which setup was randed; doing so shifts some player ratings around a bit, but few of them really moved that much. Row 2 (cop/doc/rb) is by far the easiest town rating game (duh), but it was interesting that A (jk/bp/rb), 3 (tracker/bp) AND C (tracker/doc) were all rated as being much harder than the other setups. I hadn't really expected setup C to be much closer to A and 3, but that's what early analysis suggests.
Next up on v1.010 will be town!Draynth in all likelihood. There are others who may hop into the 8+ results categories, but no one who necessarily seems imminent (unless I've missed something of course).Last edited by mhsmith0 on Fri Jul 21, 2017 9:43 am, edited 2 times in total.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
More specifics on the setup variations:
1 (jk): -0.139, equivalent to town win probability of 46.5% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 52.2%)
2 (cop/doc/rb): +0.215, equivalent to town win probability of 55.4% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 54.7%)
3 (tracker/bp): -0.544, equivalent to town win probability of 36.7% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 39.2%)
A (jk/bp/rb): -0.474, equivalent to town win probability of 38.4% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 40.0%)
B (cop): -0.175, equivalent to town win probability of 45.6% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 45.6%)
C (tracker/doc): -0.440, equivalent to town win probability of 39.2% given an all "other" group (actual town win rate 43.1%)Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
new update, v1.010:
Update for 1806, 1807, 1809-1820:
Spoiler: v1.010 results
Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Interesting changes and other notes:
town!LicketyQuickety's rating shot up on a relatively small amount of data (a win in 1813). Eyeballing the data, it looks like the other main impact was that 1803 punished his rating a lot less, mainly due to Wheme coming in with a relatively low score.
Fykus's high score given his 4-5 record was a bit surprising, but this seems to be LARGELY driven by the 1787 win (third lowest rated town to win a newbie game) getting an outsize + rating.
Newbie17201820 is actually a pretty decent chance to talk about the ratings and the impacts of "upset" type results. Prior to that game, Draynth and Creature were both rated at about 0.60, which meant that they both took a fairly substantial hit for that single game. Prior to the game result, town was estimated at about a 71% win chance (Draynth and Creature had enough data to be rated, the other 7 slots were all "other"). After the game, it went down to 58%. Especially for players with low sample sizes, the model inherently revises ratings to eliminate "weird" results. In that case, the weird result would be a fairly highly rated town losing (before the game, it would have been about tied for the #5 top rated town to lose; after the ratings revised, they went down to about the #25 rated town to lose, still a notable result but not quite as major an outcome).
Also, since I'm a high ego guy, I'm going to talk about me
I'd say that the 0.24 rating is probably around fair given the methodology. I'll note that I took a fair sized hit for 1756 (town of ThinkBig/Loop/Jae was overall an unusually positive rated town; and I subbed in at 3/2 LYLO with all town PRs dead ), and a somewhat lesser hit for 1691 (a town loss with town!Thor), but I also had some nice positives on other games to help balance that
Right now, there's really no one who jumps out at me as being particularly likely to be hopping onto the 8+ list for whenever this updates next. Jingle is at 7 scum games, so he'll pop onto the list after his next newbie scum game, but it's hard to say when that might be.Last edited by mhsmith0 on Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:36 am, edited 1 time in total.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?-
-
Not Known 15
- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- fferyllt
-
fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 20499
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Location: Left Coast
I thought I might eventually reach 8 scum games in Matrix6. Not going to happen.- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
Just replace into a bunch of slots you think are scum.Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- fferyllt
-
fferyllt Titan of Trajectory
- fferyllt
- Titan of Trajectory
- Titan of Trajectory
- Posts: 20499
- Joined: December 28, 2012
- Location: Left Coast
That's not how it works.- PenguinPower
-
PenguinPower He/Him.peng
- PenguinPower
He/Him- .peng
- .peng
- Posts: 24625
- Joined: June 15, 2016
- Pronoun: He/Him
- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
Well not with THAT attitude anywayIn post 36, fferyllt wrote:That's not how it works.
I think it's 5-1?In post 37, PenguinPower wrote:I thought I was 6-1...damnit.
Who wants to take over as Listmod while I eek out a few more scum wins?
1730 win
1732 win
1739 loss
1740 win
1807 win
1812 win
Am I missing one?Showhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- PenguinPower
-
PenguinPower He/Him.peng
- PenguinPower
He/Him- .peng
- .peng
- Posts: 24625
- Joined: June 15, 2016
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Alisae
-
Alisae lolbalance
- Alisae
- Raskolnikov
-
Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
- Raskolnikov
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 6395
- Joined: November 15, 2015
TFW you really want to play newbies but the list is so long and there's so few newbies to move it along and you don't know what your schedule will be like ~2 months from now when the games fire and heat up- mhsmith0
-
mhsmith0 Balancing Act
- mhsmith0
- Balancing Act
- Balancing Act
- Posts: 10830
- Joined: March 7, 2016
- Location: Phoenix, AZ
That's what replacing in is forShowhttp://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?- LicketyQuickety
-
LicketyQuickety Survivor
- LicketyQuickety
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 12785
- Joined: May 14, 2015
- Location: Where the moon and the sea meet.
- LicketyQuickety
Copyright © MafiaScum. All rights reserved.
- mhsmith0
- Raskolnikov
- PenguinPower
- mhsmith0
- PenguinPower
- fferyllt
- mhsmith0
- fferyllt
- mhsmith0
- mhsmith0
- mhsmith0
- mhsmith0
- Ircher
- Raskolnikov
- mhsmith0