Newbie Game Player Ratings

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Newbie Game Player Ratings

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:34 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I've decided to pull this away form what realeo is doing in his ELO thread, since they're related but not really the same.

v1.010:

Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
RadiantCowbells 0.34 -1.30 1.64 22-24 8-1 30-25
GuyInFreezer 1.63 1.63 12-3 1-2 13-5
Thor665 0.37 -0.69 1.06 12-13 6-3 18-16
fferyllt 1.03 1.03 13-4 4-1 17-5
Micc 0.98 0.98 6-3 2-1 8-4
LicketyQuickety 0.88 0.88 6-3 1-2 7-5
Malakittens 0.70 0.70 17-11 4-3 21-14
T S O 0.60 0.60 7-5 2-2 9-7
Loopdan 0.55 0.55 8-6 2-0 10-6
Xayzeck 0.52 0.52 7-4 1-4 8-8
Huntress 0.42 0.42 8-7 1-4 9-11
JaeReed 0.41 0.41 6-6 0-0 6-6
PenguinPower 0.37 0.37 5-5 5-1 10-6
Fykus 0.36 0.36 4-5 0-0 4-5
Draynth 0.35 0.35 5-5 2-1 7-6
Creature 0.30 0.30 4-4 3-0 7-4
Guyett 0.27 0.27 7-7 2-2 9-9
Bulbazak 0.26 0.26 5-4 2-2 7-6
Raskolnikov 0.25 0.25 5-6 1-2 6-8
singersigner 0.25 0.25 6-5 2-0 8-5
mhsmith0 0.23 0.23 4-4 1-0 5-4
House 0.21 0.21 6-6 2-0 8-6
jmo16mla 0.13 0.13 5-5 0-0 5-5
Hopkirk 0.09 0.09 5-4 2-0 7-4
Nobody Special 0.04 0.04 7-7 1-2 8-9
Wisdom -0.03 0.03 3-4 6-4 9-8
hayatoBL 0.02 0.02 5-6 3-1 8-7
tojam2 -0.08 -0.08 3-5 0-1 3-6
BlueBloodedToffee 0.09 0.17 -0.09 11-16 6-5 17-21
innocentvillager -0.10 -0.10 5-8 4-2 9-10
goodmorning -0.18 -0.05 -0.13 15-22 7-5 22-27
Nachomamma8 0.57 0.72 -0.15 17-12 5-12 22-24
TheIrishPope -0.16 -0.16 4-5 1-3 5-8
Jake from State Farm -0.19 -0.19 4-8 1-3 5-11
Cabd -0.21 -0.21 8-8 0-0 8-8
RachMarie -0.22 -0.22 11-18 2-2 13-20
Sakura Hana -0.24 -0.24 5-6 3-3 8-9
JasonWazza -0.26 -0.26 4-5 3-3 7-8
Dierfire -0.27 -0.27 6-10 2-2 8-12
Accountant -0.27 -0.27 6-12 4-2 10-14
copper223 -0.33 -0.33 3-5 2-0 5-5
theslimer3 -0.37 -0.37 4-6 0-0 4-6
Ms Marangal -0.41 -0.41 3-6 1-4 4-10
ThinkBig -0.41 -0.41 3-8 3-0 6-8
nancy -0.44 -0.44 2-6 1-0 3-6
NicCage -0.46 -0.46 2-6 0-0 2-6
PhantomCobalt -0.47 -0.47 5-8 1-1 6-9
notscience -0.34 0.16 -0.50 9-16 5-4 14-20
Drixx 0.47 0.96 -0.50 12-12 3-6 15-18
enomis -0.52 -0.52 2-6 0-0 2-6
Alexcellent -0.56 -0.56 3-5 0-1 3-6
Not_Mafia -0.40 0.26 -0.66 6-10 3-5 9-15
Flubbernugget -0.74 -0.74 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.77 -0.77 3-10 2-3 5-13
WhemeStar -0.83 -0.83 3-9 1-0 4-9
Titus -1.01 -1.01 3-13 0-2 3-15
GuiltyLion -1.03 -1.03 2-9 4-1 6-10
Alisae -1.46 -1.46 1-8 1-1 2-9



intercept: -0.331 (41.8% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 273.77 (average 0.610) - this is the mathematical equivalent of calling every game with 70% confidence and being correct 70% of the time (in actuality, it's much messier than that, but that's a reasonable analogue)
Last edited by mhsmith0 on Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:52 am, edited 10 times in total.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:34 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

most recent version was v1.003:

Update for 1768 and 1770, plus a couple other fixes:
Spoiler: v1.003 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.64 1.64 12-3 1-1 13-4
Thor665 0.46 -0.40 0.86 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.85 0.85 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.76 0.76 12-5 3-1 15-6
T S O 0.71 0.71 7-5 2-2 9-7
Xayzeck 0.58 0.58 7-4 1-4 8-8
Micc 0.57 0.57 5-4 2-1 7-5
singersigner 0.55 0.55 6-5 1-0 7-5
Huntress 0.55 0.55 7-5 1-3 8-8
Drixx 0.48 0.48 11-10 3-2 14-12
JaeReed 0.39 0.39 5-4 0-0 5-4
RadiantCowbells 0.34 0.34 14-15 4-1 18-16
Hopkirk 0.33 0.33 5-3 2-0 7-3
Bulbazak 0.28 0.28 5-4 2-2 7-6
Loopdan 0.26 0.26 5-5 2-0 7-5
Guyett 0.26 0.26 7-7 2-2 9-9
Raskolnikov 0.23 0.23 5-6 1-2 6-8
tojam2 0.17 0.17 3-5 0-1 3-6
theslimer3 0.09 0.09 4-4 0-0 4-4
jmo16mla 0.08 0.08 5-5 0-0 5-5
hayatoBL 0.03 0.03 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope 0.00 0.00 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.02 -0.02 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.04 -0.04 3-4 6-4 9-8
copper223 -0.10 -0.10 3-5 2-0 5-5
goodmorning -0.20 -0.09 -0.11 14-23 7-5 21-28
Nachomamma8 0.70 0.83 -0.13 17-12 5-12 22-24
House -0.18 -0.18 5-7 2-0 7-7
Nobody Special -0.19 -0.19 6-8 1-2 7-10
JasonWazza -0.19 -0.19 4-5 3-3 7-8
RachMarie -0.19 -0.19 11-18 2-2 13-20
Dierfire -0.21 -0.21 6-10 2-2 8-12
Sakura Hana -0.22 -0.22 5-6 3-3 8-9
Accountant -0.23 -0.23 6-11 2-1 8-12
Not_Mafia -0.30 -0.30 6-10 3-4 9-14
PhantomCobalt -0.32 -0.32 5-8 1-1 6-9
BlueBloodedToffee -0.13 0.21 -0.34 10-17 6-5 16-22
Ms Marangal -0.41 -0.41 3-6 1-4 4-10
NicCage -0.45 -0.45 2-6 0-0 2-6
Cabd -0.46 -0.46 6-8 0-0 6-8
notscience -0.29 0.19 -0.48 9-16 5-4 14-20
Alexcellent -0.49 -0.49 3-5 0-1 3-6
enomis -0.51 -0.51 2-6 0-0 2-6
Flubbernugget -0.70 -0.70 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.87 -0.87 2-8 1-2 3-10
Jake from State Farm -0.91 -0.91 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.00 -1.00 3-12 0-2 3-14


intercept: -0.403 (40.1% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 248.87 (average 0.624)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1768 and 1770
RC added to newbie 1711
Added tojam2 to tracking list (has now reached 8 town games)


Interesting changes and other notes:
Nothing in particular from this update tbh
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:46 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

new update, v1.004:

Update for 1771, 1772, 1775:

Spoiler: v1.004 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.66 1.66 12-3 1-1 13-4
Thor665 0.48 -0.39 0.87 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.87 0.87 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.77 0.77 12-5 3-1 15-6
T S O 0.73 0.73 7-5 2-2 9-7
Xayzeck 0.60 0.60 7-4 1-4 8-8
Micc 0.58 0.58 5-4 2-1 7-5
singersigner 0.56 0.56 6-5 1-0 7-5
Drixx 0.56 0.56 12-10 3-2 15-12
Huntress 0.56 0.56 7-5 1-3 8-8
RadiantCowbells 0.40 0.40 15-15 4-1 19-16
JaeReed 0.40 0.40 5-4 0-0 5-4
Hopkirk 0.34 0.34 5-3 2-0 7-3
Bulbazak 0.29 0.29 5-4 2-2 7-6
Guyett 0.28 0.28 7-7 2-2 9-9
Loopdan 0.27 0.27 5-5 2-0 7-5
Raskolnikov 0.23 0.23 5-6 1-2 6-8
tojam2 0.17 0.17 3-5 0-1 3-6
theslimer3 0.10 0.10 4-4 0-0 4-4
jmo16mla 0.10 0.10 5-5 0-0 5-5
hayatoBL 0.03 0.03 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope 0.01 0.01 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.01 -0.01 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.04 -0.04 3-4 6-4 9-8
goodmorning -0.19 -0.09 -0.10 14-23 7-5 21-28
copper223 -0.10 -0.10 3-5 2-0 5-5
Nachomamma8 0.71 0.83 -0.12 17-12 5-12 22-24
Nobody Special -0.18 -0.18 6-8 1-2 7-10
RachMarie -0.18 -0.18 11-18 2-2 13-20
House -0.18 -0.18 5-7 2-0 7-7
JasonWazza -0.18 -0.18 4-5 3-3 7-8
Dierfire -0.20 -0.20 6-10 2-2 8-12
Accountant -0.21 -0.21 6-11 3-1 9-12
Sakura Hana -0.22 -0.22 5-6 3-3 8-9
Not_Mafia -0.29 -0.29 6-10 3-4 9-14
PhantomCobalt -0.32 -0.32 5-8 1-1 6-9
BlueBloodedToffee -0.11 0.23 -0.34 10-17 6-5 16-22
Ms Marangal -0.41 -0.41 3-6 1-4 4-10
NicCage -0.43 -0.43 2-6 0-0 2-6
Cabd -0.46 -0.46 6-8 0-0 6-8
Alexcellent -0.48 -0.48 3-5 0-1 3-6
notscience -0.28 0.20 -0.48 9-16 5-4 14-20
enomis -0.50 -0.50 2-6 0-0 2-6
Flubbernugget -0.69 -0.69 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.86 -0.86 2-8 1-2 3-10
Jake from State Farm -0.91 -0.91 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.00 -1.00 3-12 0-2 3-14



intercept: -0.434 (39.3% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 250.29 (average 0.623)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1771, 1772, 1775


Interesting changes and other notes:
RC and drixx got nice bumps (about 0.06 and 0.08) for their wins in 1755, which is about the scale you can expect from a normalish result from players with that many town games already on record. Also, given RC's solid town rating and 4-1 scum record, my guess is he's on track to get to a rating around Thor's level if/when he gets up to 8 scum games on the newbie queue.
Also notable that, once again, the base intercept gets more negative; after 2/3 results came in as scum wins (and the two scum wins were all "other" players, town and scum), it's now dropped back below a base town win probability of 40%.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:04 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

A bit more discussion on the numbers and waht they mean:

(using v1.004 values):

A game with NONE of the individually rated players would be rated at the intercept, -0.434, probability of a town win = 39.3% (L = -0.434, exp(L) = 0.648, p(win) = exp(L) / (1+exp(L) = 39.3%, which compares to the actual town win rate of 43.3% in that set of games)

A game with any of these players would be rated at the intercept plus that player's rating (or plus multiple if multiple are in the game). As a simple example, if there are eight "other" players and thor, then the odds become:
If Thor is town: L = -0.434 + 0.478 = 0.045 -> p(town win) = 51.1% (Thor's actual town record: 12-13, 48%)
If Thor is scum: L = -0.434 + -0.393 = -0.826 -> p(town win) = 30.4% (Thor's actual scum record: 6-3, 67% which inverts to 33% town odds)

So basically, high positive numbers are good if town, high negative numbers are good if scum, and I combined them for a total rating (though most players don't have the data to really be rated for scum).

It's also worth noting that the "all others" town win percentage calculation is materially lower than the actual town win percentage. What that essentially means is that, as a whole, that town players with enough data to get rated have been good enough to increase town's win odds beyond replacement player level. It also means that scum players with enough data to get rated have NOT been good enough to decrease town's win odds beyond replacement player level (though it's notable that some successful scum players such as fferyllt, RadiantCowbells, innocentvillager, Accountant, and GuiltyLion haven't reached the 8 scum game threshold - if/when they do, the numbers may change yet again).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:29 pm

Post by Loopdan »

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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:06 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Since updates are going to happen pretty sporadically (probably looking at every other week or so given the pace, and even those probably net like 1-3 games each), I figured it might be interesting to instead take some time and talk some more about what this means and why it makes sense to use this kind of methodology (logistic regression).

Spoiler: The Very Basics, and a 50-50 coin flip
So as I'd noted previously, this kind of methodology estimates win probabilities by giving what are called "log ratings". So what does that mean?

Well, let's take a really simple example. You have a 2 sided coin, heads and tails. Let's say every time you get a heads, you mark it down as a 1, and every time you get tails, you mark it down as a 0. You flip it 10 times, 5 heads, 5 tails.

A logistic regression model would take those results, and then backsolve to get the estimated value that maximizes the associated probability of the results (this is done by minimizing an "error" function). Essentially, we look at the combined probability of the observed events given both the actual events and our assumed likelihood per flip, and create a model that maximizes what the total probability is. As a simplifying process, we take the negative of the log of the probability of each result and add those together, instead of mulitplying the calculated probabilities together (more on this later).

Let's say, for the sake of the argument, that you decided to model out a 100% heads flip probability. For each flip that was heads, your prediction was exactly right, and for each tails, your prediction was exactly wrong. Unfortunately, the combined probability of the observed events given your assumed likelihood per flip is zero, as you've observed at least one (five in fact!) theoretically impossible results (tails results given an assumption that 100% of the flips will be heads). If you take the negative logs, you see this pretty easily. The correct flips get a zero error functoin, and the wrong flips each give you an infinite error function. Not such a good result :lol:

Now let's say you make a more reasonable assumption (though still not correct). Let's say you assume it's really a 60% heads probability. Now, for each correct flip, you get a modeled result probability of 60%, and for each wrong flip, it's 40% (i.e. you said that heads was 60% and it was heads, or you said that tails was 40% and it was tails). For each pair of heads-tails flips, you get a combined probability of 60% * 40% = 24%, which is CLOSE to the correct answer (50% each), but not quite there. Incidentally, your log error would then be 0.511 for the heads flips, and 0.916 for the tails flips, for an overall average of 0.714 per flip.

That 60% estimate is NEARLY as good as the correct answer of 50-50, but not quite there. Two results (whatever they are) would get you 25% combined probability, and a log error of 0.693 per flip.

Indeed, that 0.693 per flip is the baseline of what you will want to measure up against. Any system you put into place needs to beat that error (otherwise it would default to a "well we have no clue it's just random" state) in order to get any results at all!

Spoiler: 60-40 example
OK, now let's say you have a heads/tails coin, and instead of 5 each, you get 6 heads, 4 tails. That 50-50 model still says every result is 50-50, and that 0.693 error per flip is still the mark to beat.

Now let's go back to that 60% coin again. We're still at a 60% observed probability for heads, and 40% for tails, and therefore a 0.511 error for heads and 0.916 for tails. But if there are 6 heads and 4 tails, suddenly the combined error function is 6.73 instead of 6.93. That may not look like a major improvement, but it IS an improvement! So suddenly, your estimate just got meaningfully better, because 60% is the estimate that maximizes the overall probability of results (and minimizes the error function). You can actually test this, by the way, by plugging in slight variations on 60% and seeing the resulting error functions.

For example, if we use 61%, we get
logerror (heads) = -ln(0.39) = 0.942
logerror(tails) = -ln(0.61) = 0.494
total logerror = 6.7322, which is greater than the 6.7301 from using 60% even.

Interestingly, if you try this at 70% (with 7 heads), you get
logerror (heads) = 0.357
logerror (tails) = 1.204
total logerror = 6.1086, a more substantial cut from the 60% example, but you can also see how the error for wrong predictions scales up pretty quickly as you get more and more confidently wrong (the error on 80% probability estimate, for instance, is 1.609 per "wrong" result). You can also note that the current error of 0.623 per game is roughly equivalent to a model that's just a bit worse than predicting every game with 70% confidence and accuracy (and slightly better than 67%)

Spoiler: logit for gaming results
So now the question is, how does that model translate into something for mafia? For starters, let's use a simple example of a gaming result, where players A and B match up with each other. There are two players, which have some kind of rating, but similar to a coin flip, you can model it out the same way, with A and B's combined rating somehow giving you a probability. So you have some function where A has a value, B has a value, and then A - B (since they're in opposition) has a value, and then you can translate that A - B into a probability, and from there it's a coin flip.

And you can expand that out further: if there are four players, A, B, C, and D, then any matchup can be modeled as A-B, C-B, A-D, etc. Moreover, if the opposing sides are unequal (for instance, in sports you have a home team and a road team, and some teams have much stronger home-field advantages than other), you can expand it into A1 (on the "plus" side), A2 (on the "minus" side), etc. And then you get A1-B2, C1-B2, A1-D2, D1-C2, B1-D2, etc, each of which has its own modeled result.

Spoiler: converting that into a mafia / newbie game model
Mafia can give a similar result, especially in the fixed format structure of a newbie game. In a newbie game, there are 7 town, 2 scum, and it's utterly true that some people play much better as one alignment or the other. So you could, for instance, model players A, B, C, D, E, F, G as town, and players H, I as scum, and then do something similar for every game.

However, that kind of model gets ridiculously complicated really fast, AND suffers from the problem that a lot of players only play a couple of games and get really swingy results (when people go 2-0 in their first two newbie games, are they elite players? did they just get lucky? something in between? or is there simply not enough data to really know?).

So instead, what I constructed was an alternative model. First, I model it as "what is the odds of town winning, knowing nothing at all about any players involved", and then from there I add in individual players (but only players with a large enough sample size to calculate their ratings with reasonable accuracy, semi-arbitrarily set at 8 games for a player in a particular alignment).

So for some games, you'll have everyone be an "other" player, and for others, you get the modeled impact of substituting in a specific player for a town slot or a scum slot instead of an unknown/"other" player. And then from there, you can model out the relative impact of each of these known players, for whichever alignment they have enough games (8) to be measured for.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Fri Mar 03, 2017 1:09 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'm going to switch tacks a bit and talk about some of the more interesting game results. Specifically, I'm going to look at games where especially good towns were defeated by mafia, and vice-versa. Really impressive wins are the sorts of things that can strongly bump players' ratings, as either alignments; in general, if you're going to have a strong rating, you're either going to have a really good resume with a strong record and generally strong opponents, OR you're going to have some number of standout performances that really boost your ratings.

Best towns beaten by mafia (as of v1.004)

1 - 1429
Town Rating: 1.769: Nachomamma8, fferyllt, Bulbazak, 4 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: 0.000: 2 {OTHER} players (F-16_Fighting_Falcon, Bert)
2 - 1593
Town Rating: 1.659: GuyInFreezer, 6 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: 0.000: 2 {OTHER} players (Sparx555, AxleGreaser)
3 - 1404
Town Rating: 1.440: GuyInFreezer, Sakura Hana, 5 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: 0.000: 2 {OTHER} players (SalmonellaDreams, SXTLHGaiden)
4 - 1644
Town Rating: 1.428: Malakittens, Drixx, 5 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.088: goodmorning, 1 {OTHER} player (Vedith)
5 - 1451
Town Rating: 1.238: goodmorning, Malakittens, Huntress, 4 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: 0.000: 2 {OTHER} players (Yiley, emeraldemon)

Best mafia teams beaten by town (as of v1.004)

1A - 1548
Town Rating: 0.576: Micc, 6 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.393: Thor665, {OTHER}
1B - 1693
Town Rating: 0.664: RadiantCowbells, PhantomCobalt, Micc, 4 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.393: Thor665, {OTHER}
1C - 1724
Town Rating: 1.270: Malakittens, JaeReed, LicketyQuickety, 4 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.393: Thor665, {OTHER}
4A - 1447
Town Rating: 0.564: Guyett, Bulbazak, 5 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.393: goodmorning, {OTHER}
4B - 1546
Town Rating: -0.282: BlueBloodedToffee, 6 {OTHER} players
Mafia Rating: -0.393: goodmorning, {OTHER}
(1602, 1627, 1683 were also scum losses by goodmorning and a non-rated scum player. Thor and GM are currently the only scum players rated as above-average).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:49 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

new update, v1.005:

Update for 1773, 1776, 1777:

Spoiler: v1.005 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.64 1.64 12-3 1-1 13-4
Thor665 0.46 -0.42 0.88 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.85 0.85 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.76 0.76 12-5 3-1 15-6
T S O 0.71 0.71 7-5 2-2 9-7
Xayzeck 0.58 0.58 7-4 1-4 8-8
Micc 0.57 0.57 5-4 2-1 7-5
singersigner 0.55 0.55 6-5 1-0 7-5
Huntress 0.52 0.52 7-5 1-3 8-8
Loopdan 0.45 0.45 6-5 2-0 8-5
Drixx 0.44 0.44 12-11 3-3 15-14
JaeReed 0.38 0.38 5-4 0-0 5-4
Hopkirk 0.33 0.33 5-3 2-0 7-3
RadiantCowbells 0.31 0.31 15-16 4-1 19-17
Bulbazak 0.27 0.27 5-4 2-2 7-6
Guyett 0.26 0.26 7-7 2-2 9-9
Raskolnikov 0.24 0.24 5-6 1-2 6-8
tojam2 0.15 0.15 3-5 0-1 3-6
theslimer3 0.09 0.09 4-4 0-0 4-4
jmo16mla 0.08 0.08 5-5 0-0 5-5
hayatoBL 0.04 0.04 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope 0.00 0.00 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.02 -0.02 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.04 -0.04 3-4 6-4 9-8
copper223 -0.09 -0.09 3-5 2-0 5-5
goodmorning -0.22 -0.09 -0.13 14-23 7-5 21-28
Nachomamma8 0.70 0.82 -0.13 17-12 5-12 22-24
House -0.19 -0.19 5-7 2-0 7-7
Nobody Special -0.19 -0.19 6-8 1-2 7-10
RachMarie -0.19 -0.19 11-18 2-2 13-20
JasonWazza -0.20 -0.20 4-5 3-3 7-8
Dierfire -0.21 -0.21 6-10 2-2 8-12
Sakura Hana -0.22 -0.22 5-6 3-3 8-9
Accountant -0.23 -0.23 6-11 3-2 9-13
Not_Mafia -0.29 -0.29 6-10 3-4 9-14
PhantomCobalt -0.31 -0.31 5-8 1-1 6-9
BlueBloodedToffee -0.13 0.21 -0.34 10-17 6-5 16-22
Ms Marangal -0.42 -0.42 3-6 1-4 4-10
NicCage -0.44 -0.44 2-6 0-0 2-6
Cabd -0.46 -0.46 6-8 0-0 6-8
notscience -0.29 0.19 -0.48 9-16 5-4 14-20
Alexcellent -0.48 -0.48 3-5 0-1 3-6
enomis -0.51 -0.51 2-6 0-0 2-6
Flubbernugget -0.71 -0.71 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.86 -0.86 2-8 1-2 3-10
Jake from State Farm -0.91 -0.91 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.01 -1.01 3-12 0-2 3-14



intercept: -0.398(40.2% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 252.93 (average 0.625)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1773, 1776, 1777


Interesting changes and other notes:
Two fairly "high error" results just happened in that set:
1776 - Town with RC and Drixx with five "other" players against two "other" players lost (even more notably, PenguinPower, who's currently 4-2 in newbies as town, was ALSO in that town and was defeated). This is the sort of result which, if Mewtaph and/or ChrisOrmie hang around for a while, could substantially boost their long-term ratings.
1777 - This was a game with entirely "other" players (Grey doesn't have enough town games, and Drixx doesn't have enough scum games, to be rated), and town won (I think scum have a very solid win rate in these types of games). My guess is that this in particular was what drove the intercept up a decent amount from v1.004
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:08 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I was n1ed that's hardly fair :(
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:21 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Well fortunately you've got a large enough sample size it's not a huge swing (0.40 to 0.31 is not a major shift in rating), but yeah there's plenty of noise associated with a system that basically punishes or rewards every member of a winning or losing team equally (one easy example: when I hit eight town games, my own rating will be eating a nasty detriment for 1756 thanks to losing with positive rated townie jae and loop, despite subbing in 5p LYLO with all town power dead and correctly tunneling scum!accountant, one of the many results underlying my "you're the unluckiest player I've ever seen" description that I was given a while ago and that continues to basically be correct :cry: )
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 10:03 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

new update, v1.006:

Update for 1774, 1778, 1780, 1781:

Spoiler: v1.006 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.64 1.64 12-3 1-1 13-4
Thor665 0.45 -0.55 1.00 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.86 0.86 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.75 0.75 12-5 3-1 15-6
T S O 0.71 0.71 7-5 2-2 9-7
Loopdan 0.60 0.60 8-5 2-0 10-5
Micc 0.60 0.60 5-4 2-1 7-5
Xayzeck 0.58 0.58 7-4 1-4 8-8
Creature 0.55 0.55 5-3 2-0 7-3
singersigner 0.54 0.54 6-5 1-0 7-5
Huntress 0.49 0.49 7-5 1-4 8-9
JaeReed 0.40 0.40 5-4 0-0 5-4
PenguinPower 0.37 0.37 5-3 3-1 8-4
Drixx 0.34 0.34 12-12 3-3 15-15
RadiantCowbells 0.34 0.34 16-16 5-1 21-17
Hopkirk 0.33 0.33 5-3 2-0 7-3
Bulbazak 0.27 0.27 5-4 2-2 7-6
Guyett 0.26 0.26 7-7 2-2 9-9
Raskolnikov 0.18 0.18 5-6 1-2 6-8
theslimer3 0.09 0.09 4-4 0-0 4-4
tojam2 0.08 0.08 3-5 0-1 3-6
jmo16mla 0.08 0.08 5-5 0-0 5-5
hayatoBL 0.04 0.04 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope 0.00 0.00 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.02 -0.02 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.05 -0.05 3-4 6-4 9-8
copper223 -0.08 -0.08 3-5 2-0 5-5
Nachomamma8 0.68 0.78 -0.10 17-12 5-12 22-24
goodmorning -0.23 -0.13 -0.10 14-23 7-5 21-28
Nobody Special -0.19 -0.19 6-8 1-2 7-10
JasonWazza -0.19 -0.19 4-5 3-3 7-8
House -0.20 -0.20 5-7 2-0 7-7
Sakura Hana -0.22 -0.22 5-6 3-3 8-9
RachMarie -0.23 -0.23 11-18 2-2 13-20
Dierfire -0.23 -0.23 6-10 2-2 8-12
PhantomCobalt -0.29 -0.29 5-8 1-1 6-9
Not_Mafia -0.30 -0.30 6-10 3-4 9-14
BlueBloodedToffee -0.11 0.24 -0.35 10-17 6-5 16-22
Accountant -0.39 -0.39 6-12 3-2 9-14
Ms Marangal -0.43 -0.43 3-6 1-4 4-10
NicCage -0.43 -0.43 2-6 0-0 2-6
Cabd -0.46 -0.46 6-8 0-0 6-8
notscience -0.29 0.20 -0.48 9-16 5-4 14-20
enomis -0.53 -0.53 2-6 0-0 2-6
Alexcellent -0.54 -0.54 3-5 0-1 3-6
Flubbernugget -0.71 -0.71 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.86 -0.86 2-8 1-2 3-10
Jake from State Farm -0.90 -0.90 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.00 -1.00 3-12 0-2 3-14


intercept: -0.389 (40.4% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 254.69 (average 0.623)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1774, 1778, 1780, 1781
Town!Creature and town!PenguinPower now hves 8 results and are added to the table


Interesting changes and other notes:
scum!RC is now 5-1, and if he gets to 6-1, I'll probably give him the mor_tilt treatment (see http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... post948532) and add him to the table, because even if 7 games isn't quite the sample size I want to see, 6-1 as a record (if/when he hits that point) suggests that he's WAY better than the average scum, and should both be recognized as such and the players he's beaten shouldn't get the hit of seemingly losing to a generic scum (it also substantially boosts Huntress's credit for 1700 which is odd considering she was mislynched day 1 there as a PR but *shrugs*)
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:41 pm

Post by Errantparabola »

This is cool to look at. Thanks for this!
did another ms user do something lovely? recognize their achievements here!

Today's modern mafia consumer demands dozens, nay, hundreds of roles that are vanilla cops.
--implosion
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:07 am

Post by GuyInFreezer »

That was totally random
seeing my name up there
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The true enlightenment was realizing that they are the same thing."
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"who the fuck fakeclaims Tracker like that
WHO THE FUCK DOES THAT"
~Alisae
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 4:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Well I mean winning a lot does help :P
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Sat May 13, 2017 6:33 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

new update, v1.007:

Update for 1779, 1782, 1783, 1784, 1785, 1786, 1788:

Spoiler: v1.007 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.64 1.64 12-3 1-1 13-4
RadiantCowbells 0.32 -1.27 1.58 17-17 7-1 24-18
Thor665 0.44 -0.50 0.94 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.86 0.86 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.76 0.76 12-5 3-1 15-6
Huntress 0.72 0.72 8-5 1-4 9-9
T S O 0.71 0.71 7-5 2-2 9-7
Creature 0.69 0.69 5-3 2-0 7-3
Xayzeck 0.58 0.58 7-4 1-4 8-8
Micc 0.56 0.56 5-4 2-1 7-5
Loopdan 0.51 0.51 8-6 2-0 10-6
singersigner 0.51 0.51 6-5 1-0 7-5
Drixx 0.38 0.38 12-12 3-4 15-16
Hopkirk 0.32 0.32 5-3 2-0 7-3
Raskolnikov 0.28 0.28 5-6 1-2 6-8
Bulbazak 0.27 0.27 5-4 2-2 7-6
JaeReed 0.27 0.27 5-5 0-0 5-5
Guyett 0.26 0.26 7-7 2-2 9-9
PenguinPower 0.10 0.10 5-5 3-1 8-6
jmo16mla 0.08 0.08 5-5 0-0 5-5
theslimer3 0.08 0.08 4-4 0-0 4-4
tojam2 0.08 0.08 3-5 0-1 3-6
hayatoBL 0.04 0.04 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope 0.01 0.01 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.02 -0.02 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.06 -0.06 3-4 6-4 9-8
goodmorning -0.23 -0.15 -0.08 14-23 7-5 21-28
copper223 -0.09 -0.09 3-5 2-0 5-5
House -0.11 -0.11 5-7 2-0 7-7
Nachomamma8 0.67 0.81 -0.14 17-12 5-12 22-24
JasonWazza -0.19 -0.19 4-5 3-3 7-8
Nobody Special -0.19 -0.19 6-8 1-2 7-10
Dierfire -0.19 -0.19 6-10 2-2 8-12
Sakura Hana -0.22 -0.22 5-6 3-3 8-9
RachMarie -0.25 -0.25 11-18 2-2 13-20
BlueBloodedToffee -0.05 0.24 -0.28 10-17 6-5 16-22
Not_Mafia -0.29 -0.29 6-10 3-4 9-14
PhantomCobalt -0.30 -0.30 5-8 1-1 6-9
Accountant -0.33 -0.33 6-12 3-2 9-14
Ms Marangal -0.42 -0.42 3-6 1-4 4-10
NicCage -0.43 -0.43 2-6 0-0 2-6
Cabd -0.46 -0.46 6-8 0-0 6-8
notscience -0.29 0.20 -0.49 9-16 5-4 14-20
enomis -0.53 -0.53 2-6 0-0 2-6
Alexcellent -0.59 -0.59 3-5 0-1 3-6
Flubbernugget -0.74 -0.74 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.87 -0.87 2-8 1-2 3-10
Jake from State Farm -0.90 -0.90 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.02 -1.02 3-13 0-2 3-15


intercept: -0.388 (40.4% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 257.19 (average 0.618)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1779, 1782, 1783, 1784, 1785, 1786, 1788
Scum!RC now has 8 results and is added to the table


Interesting changes and other notes:
Probably the most notable thing is that RC's scum game is now on the table, and, to probably no one's surprise, it is a very very highly rated scum game. Basically, at the top of the table it's GIF, RC, and then a pretty big gap until the next tier.

FWIW, there's also a decent stack of people who are close to getting on the table, with 6 or 7 games in a particular alignment while being on the queue often enough to probably make the list in the next couple of months.[/quote]
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Mon May 15, 2017 11:30 am

Post by RadiantCowbells »

this inflated my ego
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Mon May 15, 2017 12:10 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 15, RadiantCowbells wrote:this inflated my ego
ohh noez
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 8:28 am

Post by Loopdan »

Image
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 8:39 am

Post by MarioManiac4 »

this deflated my ego
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 12:22 pm

Post by Oversoul »

Thread hijack since OP seems mathy: Do we have any data on factional win rates in Mini Normals?
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 12:24 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

yes, see
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=69237

though that's for 10v3 mini normals (which isn't all of them), and it's I think like 3 months out of date.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Tue May 16, 2017 12:26 pm

Post by Oversoul »

Oh that's exactly what I was looking for.

Thank you, mhs.
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:55 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

new update, v1.008:

Update for 1787, 1789, 1790, 1791, 1793, 1794, 1795, 1796:

Spoiler: v1.008 results
Log Rating Record
Player Town Scum Combined Town Scum Combined
GuyInFreezer 1.69 1.69 12-3 1-1 13-4
RadiantCowbells 0.37 -1.13 1.50 19-19 7-1 26-20
Thor665 0.41 -0.55 0.96 12-13 6-3 18-16
Malakittens 0.88 0.88 17-10 3-3 20-13
fferyllt 0.71 0.71 12-5 3-1 15-6
T S O 0.68 0.68 7-5 2-2 9-7
Creature 0.65 0.65 5-3 3-0 8-3
Huntress 0.64 0.64 8-5 1-4 9-9
Micc 0.55 0.55 5-4 2-1 7-5
Xayzeck 0.53 0.53 7-4 1-4 8-8
Drixx 0.51 0.51 12-12 3-4 15-16
singersigner 0.47 0.47 6-5 1-0 7-5
Loopdan 0.44 0.44 8-6 2-0 10-6
JaeReed 0.35 0.35 5-5 0-0 5-5
Hopkirk 0.28 0.28 5-3 2-0 7-3
Bulbazak 0.25 0.25 5-4 2-2 7-6
Guyett 0.24 0.24 7-7 2-2 9-9
Raskolnikov 0.22 0.22 5-6 1-2 6-8
PenguinPower 0.17 0.17 5-5 3-1 8-6
theslimer3 0.05 0.05 4-4 0-0 4-4
jmo16mla 0.04 0.04 5-5 0-0 5-5
tojam2 0.02 0.02 3-5 0-1 3-6
hayatoBL 0.00 0.00 5-6 3-1 8-7
TheIrishPope -0.01 -0.01 4-5 1-3 5-8
innocentvillager -0.05 -0.05 5-7 4-1 9-8
Wisdom 0.06 -0.06 3-4 6-4 9-8
copper223 -0.15 -0.15 3-5 2-0 5-5
Nachomamma8 0.61 0.76 -0.16 17-12 5-12 22-24
House -0.16 -0.16 5-7 2-0 7-7
goodmorning -0.27 -0.10 -0.17 14-23 7-5 21-28
JasonWazza -0.20 -0.20 4-5 3-3 7-8
Accountant -0.23 -0.23 6-12 4-2 10-14
Nobody Special -0.23 -0.23 6-8 1-2 7-10
Dierfire -0.25 -0.25 6-10 2-2 8-12
Sakura Hana -0.25 -0.25 5-6 3-3 8-9
RachMarie -0.27 -0.27 11-18 2-2 13-20
BlueBloodedToffee -0.08 0.20 -0.28 10-17 6-5 16-22
PhantomCobalt -0.36 -0.36 5-8 1-1 6-9
NicCage -0.45 -0.45 2-6 0-0 2-6
Ms Marangal -0.46 -0.46 3-6 1-4 4-10
Cabd -0.50 -0.50 6-8 0-0 6-8
notscience -0.33 0.18 -0.52 9-16 5-4 14-20
enomis -0.57 -0.57 2-6 0-0 2-6
Not_Mafia -0.34 0.26 -0.59 6-10 3-5 9-15
Alexcellent -0.62 -0.62 3-5 0-1 3-6
Flubbernugget -0.78 -0.78 3-8 0-0 3-8
MarioManiac4 -0.93 -0.93 2-8 2-3 4-11
Jake from State Farm -0.95 -0.95 2-10 1-3 3-13
Titus -1.02 -1.02 3-13 0-2 3-15
GuiltyLion -1.27 -1.27 1-8 4-1 5-9
Alisae -1.55 -1.55 1-8 0-1 1-9


intercept: -0.315 (42.2% town win odds given entirely "other" players)
combined error: 258.75 (average 0.609)


Spoiler: updates and corrections list
Added newbies 1787, 1789, 1790, 1791, 1793, 1794, 1795, 1796
town!guiltylion, town!alisae, scum!not_mafia now have 8 results and are added to the table


Interesting changes and other notes:
Not massively. Having played with Alisae before, I do think there's probably some hard luck baked in there (1779 and 1789 in particular I'd say really weren't his fault when he 1v1'd scum before LYLO and town mislynched him in each), though I couldn't say exactly how much.

Next up on v1.009 will be town!ThinkBig in all likelihood. There are others who may hop into the 8+ results categories, but no one who necessarily seems imminent (unless I've missed something of course).
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:24 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

Why'd I drop so much :(
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 2:16 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

1.58 to 1.50 isn't really what i'd consider an especially material shift, fwiw. That said...

1) "It's complicated" (there are a lot of moving parts - every player's rating changes every iteration since it's a regression methodlogy, and the intercept moves too)

2) Since the main thing was your scum rating dropped (your town rating bumped a bit), I'll talk about that. Again, it's complicated, but the main drivers on cursory glance are three games:
1655 - GuiltyLion is now rated, and pretty lowly as town, so that scum win became worth substantially less
1780 - Alisae is now rated, and pretty lowly as town, so that scum win became worth substantially less
1700 - Huntress's town rating has gone down, so that loss hurt a bit more (and since it's your one and only scum loss, it has a relatively outsize impact on your scum rating)

PS To put it into context a bit, in v1.007, a game with you as scum and all unrated players would model as:
X = -0.388 (intercept) - 1.27 (your rating) = -1.658. Town win odds then = exp(-1.658) = 19.1%
Now it's
X = -.315 - 1.13 = -1.445, town win odds = exp(-1.445) = 23.5%

So basically about a 4.5% win odds swing model to model, with a third of that being explicitly the change in intercept (i.e. what the odds of an entirely "other players" game would look like), so basically a 3% lesser impact from your scum game compared to before, and even that is counteracted by your town rating bumping up by about a third of what your scum rating dropped by.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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