Mafia: Balance of Possibilities versus Probabilities

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Mafia: Balance of Possibilities versus Probabilities

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:25 pm

Post by mastina »

This has always been a long-standing belief of mine, that the game of mafia revolves largely around a simple issue: what is likely, versus what is unlikely.

Basic Thesis:

Mafia thrive on
possibility
; town thrive on
probability
.

Everything in the game traces back to this simple belief.

A mafia player thrives on making players think of the unlikely: "What if this player who was investigated by the cop is actually a Godfather? What if the cop claim after the lynch of a Godfather is actually scum fakeclaiming?" These are things that are of course theoretically
possible
, and which vastly favor the scum because they are probably not actually true.

A town player thrives on making reasonably probable conclusions: No, the innocent is not on a Godfather; no, the cop claiming after a Godfather lynch is not scum fakeclaiming. There remains the possibility of being wrong in deductions like this...but sheer statistical numbers are on your side to hold these beliefs, as 90+% of the time you will be right to have held these stances.

The Art of Misleading:

The method a mafia player uses to convince town to follow them onto something which they know is wrong is essentially exaggeration--they run through a logical process, and play up the percentages of their conclusion, emphasizing how it is so much more likely than it realistically should be. This is why so many people advise against town players lying about the strength behind their reads; it is quite literally a scum tactic.

The mafiate will explain how they reached their conclusion, pointing out the links and chaining them together as to how that conclusion could be formed. The strength of these chains is often inherently weaker than what it should be, because the mafia player already knows what they are talking about is wrong.
They will devalue things which are inconvenient to their narrative and play up things which loosely support their narrative
, even if these things are a stretch. (Which is, again, why as town you are recommended to never use something you do not honestly believe to be true.)

This can be used for anything: misapplication of mechanics, misapplication of roles, justifying a bad townread on a scumbuddy, justifying a bad scumread on a player they know is town. All players, no matter their playstyle, do this as scum. Wallposters, spamposters, logical masterminds, gut players. They will point out things which are theoretically something which could be thought true, and rely on people not pointing out how unlikely those things are to be true.

The Art of Balance:

The way I view the game, my reads are in a neverending state of constant flux: I doubt everything, because I think of every possibility. This is convenient for me as scum; it allows me to prepare against any town action and also lets me fabricate whatever reads I so desire. (As seen above.) As town, if I let these possibilities go unchecked and control me, I would never be able to reliably hunt (yet alone, catch) scum.

As a result, I channel the possibilities with a simple, yet versatile, question: "
Which is more likely?
" Which is the most likely to be the case? This is closely tied to Occam's Razor, in that often the most likely possibility is the simplest one requiring the least number of assumptions.

It is okay to have a brain which is hardwired to doubt everything--this is actually a
good
thing! You should constantly be challenging your assumptions, you should constantly be reevaluating, you should consistently ask "Am I actually right?"

...
However
, you shouldn't be afraid to answer that question with a "Yes". "Yes, I actually think I
am
right." You can, and
should
, pick and choose what to focus on, what to believe in, which assumptions are valid, and which assumptions can be safely discarded as incredibly unlikely.

Nothing Is Ever Certain!

You will never have a scumteam which perfectly fits all the data on hand. There will always be something which makes the team not be perfect. There will always be a valid point which keeps a scumteam from being flawless.

Town players will say scummy shit. Scum players will say shit which sounds town. This is a basic truth, universal to any game you will play. Which is stronger depends on the skill of the player in question as an alignment, not to mention the circumstances behind what they are saying. (A statement that is incredibly scummy in one game might be the beacon of towniness in another; similarly, a statement scummy from one player might be a huge towntell coming from a different player.)

However, regardless of how crappy the scum are, or how elite the scum are, or how good the town are, or how shitty the town are: both sides will always contain at least
some
of both. As a result, when weighing evidence, every player will have a possibility of being either alignment.

The job of a town player isn't to see every possibility--
the job of a town player is to figure out which possibility is the most probable.


Application of Knowledge:

It is one thing to know how to weigh possibilities versus probabilities in terms of honestly evaluating the strength of your reads and your assumptions in the game. This is something most players are actually already good at, to at least some degree. Most of what I have said above isn't anything revolutionary; it's simply something we don't often see said.

What is a bit harder to understand is how to properly use it effectively.

Set Guidelines

It helps to establish some basic boundaries. For instance, it is often not hard to guess the approximate number of scum in the game. A good, solid guideline I have is to set no more than double the number of scum in the game as scumreads--ideally, no more than 1.5 times the number of scum. (So in a 2-scum game, 4 max, ideally 3. 4-scum, 8 max, ideally 6.)

Explain Using These Terms

You don't have to use the exact language that I use here. But it helps to use the conceptual language here, and lots of us do this already. When we see someone point out something which we find to basically be impossible, we'll call them out on their bullshit and clearly tell them why we feel their theory, while possible, is incredibly improbable.

Be Honest

Explain your process and how you came to what you have. This is helpful for two reasons. One, it can help you reevaluate your own read. By typing out why someone is null, you might gain a read on them. Or by typing out the reasons for someone being town/scum, you might realize how much of a stretch that is and instantly take it back to the drawing board. The second advantage is peer review--explaining why a null player is null to you is opening up for great feedback from players who may have an opinion, and they'll be more than happy to build off of your established reasoning and add onto it with their own and why they have a read there.

You don't have to write novels on all your conclusions. A one-liner is often surprisingly effective at conveying thoughts. But you should still be explaining why you think that something is, or isn't, likely to be true.

Know Timing

...
That being said
, sometimes you don't want people to know your thought process. Selectively holding back on timing is an artform, because it can help gather useful reactions. Knowing when to not share is just as important as knowing TO share. You should always have in mind an end time for your silence, though. Maintaining it indefinitely is anti-town.

Be Realistic

In all aspects of your play. You should have in mind at all times what is a realistic scenario and what is unrealistic. But you should also know what you can realistically do, and what you cannot realistically do. For instance, if you're suffering a bad V/LA, you probably shouldn't promise to write a novella on every player in the game because that is almost certainly beyond your realistic capabilities given your circumstances.

Apply Occam's Razor

Use it often. Point out how unlikely combinations are. Point out how many assumptions (especially flawed ones) a theory relies on. Keeping things simple is a guideline I cannot stress the importance of enough in terms of possibilities versus probabilities. Most remote possibilities flagrantly violate Occam's Razor; most probabilities use Occam's Razor.

In Summary:

As town, focus on what is probable rather than what is possible, and look for those who are failing to do so.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:22 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

thought this was an interesting read but some players as town focus on mechanics which could lead to thinking about possibilities rather than probabilities
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:11 pm

Post by Firebringer »

I disagreed with thesis.
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:12 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I've had so many games where I thought scum did something obscure/weird, everyone chastised me and ignored me because 'scum wouldnt do that', and thats exactly what scum did.

Strongly disagree with Thesis.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:30 pm

Post by schadd_ »

idk it seemed like an ok thesis

granted there's a guy at my homesite that i can call 100% lockscum whenever he uses the phrase "might have been"
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:42 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 3, RadiantCowbells wrote:I've had so many games where I thought scum did something obscure/weird, everyone chastised me and ignored me because 'scum wouldnt do that', and thats exactly what scum did.

Strongly disagree with Thesis.
Yeah.

Town don't thrive on probability.
They destroy themselves by analyzing it.

"Scum would not do that" so they ignore that, when that's exactly what scum did.

I agreed with first part on "scum thrive on possibility" but the town part is completely misguided.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:45 pm

Post by Firebringer »

I would say to adjust the thesis that Town thrive from understanding, not from probability.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:47 pm

Post by Gamma Emerald »

I think a better division is "scum thrive on the unknown, town thrive on making a logical picture of what is known"
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:51 pm

Post by Firebringer »

Of course saying understanding is key to town isn't a "foil" to the possibilities.

Scum are good when it comes to selling alternate views or doing things that players wouldn't expect to throw people of the trail. Town need to thus be good at understanding how people think, which can be good scum skill also. The idea is that if you see something that you try not to throw shit out because "ohh that's ridiculous, I would never do this" which is what most players do. They think people play the same way they do.

Being a good Town you have to be able to connect people by understanding how THEY operate, not how you operate.

Going off probability is inherently flawed because not all scum rationalize their actions for you to actually minimize possibilities that way.
And Occam's razor is only useful if other person is also thinking in simplest fashion.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:52 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 7, Gamma Emerald wrote:I think a better division is "scum thrive on the unknown, town thrive on making a logical picture of what is known"
No, because people aren't logical.
If you are using pure logic you will fail almost all the time.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:07 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

The point of mafia isn't logic, it's proper use of rhetoric. I view everything in life as being a struggle of different forces that use underlining coercion to win. Getting people to agree with you, even if they want to, is the same as struggling with them to win. To have people agree with you is the same as yielding to another force. Every argument has a winner. Rhetoric is the route you take to win. Logic might be a part of it, but you can misuse logic to support an argument and win. You might be scummy as shit for it, but if you're a winner, that doesn't matter.
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:29 pm

Post by Ginngie »

"gut"
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:30 pm

Post by Ginngie »

In post 11, Ginngie wrote:"gut"
I have come close to being an expert at using my gut.

Wouldn't say I have it mastered but damn if I can actually pull away the smoke clouding my gut, it just makes so much sense and I'm usually right with it.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:04 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 3, RadiantCowbells wrote:I've had so many games where I thought scum did something obscure/weird, everyone chastised me and ignored me because 'scum wouldnt do that', and thats exactly what scum did.
???
Where does the thesis imply that it's a good idea to go "scum wouldn't do that"?

It's literally saying to
not
do that.

Like.
Literally the polar opposite it is saying to NOT go "scum wouldn't do that".

Blindly going "scum wouldn't do that" is favoring a possibility instead of a probability.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:08 pm

Post by Firebringer »

I don't think you even know what you are saying now.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:15 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 14, Firebringer wrote:I don't think you even know what you are saying now.
I'm the one who wrote the article I know what I meant.

If you're going "scum wouldn't do that", you're not balancing possibilities versus probabilities. You're discarding scenarios arbitrarily without critically weighing them. It's not possible to be doing a probability if you're discarding data like that. Balancing possibilities versus probabilities is about
weighing
all
sides
, and then determining the side which is most likely to be true.

"Scum wouldn't do that" is inherently not weighing all sides. And therefore it is not determining the side which is most likely to be true--it is favoring possibility instead of probability because of an arbitrary assumption of what scum cannot do when scum could in fact do it and that's the whole fucking point.

"This is less likely than this". This is balancing a possibility versus a probability.
"This is something which couldn't have happened, so this is what did/likely happen(ed)". This is not balancing a possibility versus a probability because there is nothing being balanced. There is nothing being critically analyzed. It is not weighing the sides; it is arbitrarily and blindly discarding one side in favor of another. Literally the polar opposite of what I am telling people to do.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:25 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 15, mastina wrote:In post 14, Firebringer wrote:
I don't think you even know what you are saying now.
I'm the one who wrote the article I know what I meant.
Knowing what you meant and knowing what you are saying can be two different things.

Your word choice isn't very good, so let me break it down for you.

You say that "don't dismiss possibilities, so never say scum wouldn't do that"
Your word choice of "probability" implies limiting down choices and reducing the unlikely possibilities, you say this as part of your argument too but you basically say you should analyze all aspects, including unlikely.

I have made argument already on why the thesis and undermining argument is not good.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:27 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 13, mastina wrote:Blindly going "scum wouldn't do that" is favoring a possibility instead of a probability.
This sentence makes no sense.
Probability is about figuring out the likely versus unlikely.
Possibility is about what could have happened so it's looking at all interpretations
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:13 pm

Post by RadiantCowbells »

I'm going to get back to this because I feel I owe this a more thorough response than I've given it and we'll see where we both stand from there.
2019 stats: Town WR 76.7%, overall WR 81.667%, 1 scum defeat involving a major mod error in lylo vs 8 scum wins.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:03 pm

Post by callforjudgement »

Finding convoluted potential explanations for situations when a simpler explanation exists is a scumtell that's worked fairly well for me in the past.

That is, if the information a player "should have" as town is sufficient to deduce that something screwy is going on, them proposing screwy explanations is reasonable. However, if there are perfectly reasonable, non-ridiculous explanations from that player's point of view, yet they persist on looking at the ridiculous ones anyway, then either they have more information than they're letting on (likely scumtell) or they're actively trying to manipulate you (also a likely scumtell).

A corollary from all this is that if a player is insisting that something
particular
implausible is going on, neglecting both plausible possibilities and implausible possibilities at a similar level of ridiculousness, then not only are they probably scum, they're also probably right (or almost-right, e.g. telling the truth with names switched).
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