Making matrix-6 more balanced

[ThinkBig]

There has been a few discussions in some games about the balance of the matrix-6 set up. Here's the current set up:

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town 1-shot Bulletproof	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

One issue comes from where there is a bullet proof townie. Pine notes:

I'm actually thinking that the setup can be partially broken by a D1 bulletproof claim. It's very easy to disprove, as only 1/6 setups lack any roles that can counterclaim it. Scum therefore won't fakeclaim it, because a 1/6 chance of success isn't worth it. Your BP then becomes a partially-invincible IC, which is a great thing to have on D1 in a Micro. It also partially establishes which setup you're in, which severely hampers what fakeclaims scum might use. This is doubly true in a Newbie, where new scum players might not grok the setup table right away. "Oh, you've claimed Cop? Well, I'm a BP Townie, so no you aren't." This also leaves the JK or Tracker free to investigate, as the BPT will become the center of attention and likely a durable target.

I'd like to make a few proposed changes to the table.

Variation 1: Innocent Child

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Innocent Child	Mafia Goon	Town Tracker

In this set up, the innocent child can claim whenever he wants via PM or by claiming in thread.

In addition to what Pine mentioned, a claimed BP townie can function as an innocent child that can't be easily killed by scum. Changing the BP town to innocent child can help by ensuring that there can be at least 1 confirm town in a set up without a cop and that it cannot be effectively death proof.

The only issue is in column A where a JK+BP exists together. The JK can continue jailing the IC until the mafia roleblocks the JK or kills it.

Variation 2:

	A	B	C
1	Town Jailkeeper	Vanilla Townie	Mafia Goon
2	Mafia Roleblocker	Town Cop	Town Doctor
3	Town Tracker	Mafia Goon	Innocent Child

In this variation, the town tracker and the IC are flip flopped. I think this could be more balanced as a doctor-tracker set up can lead to a "follow the tracker" scenario once one mafia goon is killed, though once again, there is the issue of an IC+Doctor.

I'm thinking of working on some variations of Matrix 6 and running them as a test in the micro queue. Would anyone be interested in playing the variants?

Also, how would you make it more balanced?

[mhsmith0]

The IC is a fundamentally weak role that cannot carry a town with just it plus doctor. Given that tracker is already functionally an IC (it's hard-clearing by claiming, and you're just as likely to have a derp or scum hammer on a jk/cop/tracker as you are an IC), it would radically nerf column C to the point where town win rates would shoot through the toilet (tracker/doctor is often a mediocre combo, EXCEPT AFTER THE FIRST SCUM LYNCH, in which case it becomes functionally the same as follow the cop, which is super powerful, and town win rates are STILL under 50% despite this possibility existing, and in fact occurring in probably at least 10% of games).

RC's BP claim strategy functionally makes the BP an IC (or near IC), except that even with that strategy, I strongly suspect that town win rates in the A/3 setups are going to hover around 50% (though it MAY boost them to near 50%, which is at least something potentially interesting). It MAY also to some degree come at the cost of town win rates in cop only and jk only setups, since scum can more blatantly PR hunt without worrying about doctor and/or have the way better cleared for strategic fakeclaims.

[Accountant]

I've begun running RC'S BP strat in all my newbie games. Even if it's not mathematically optimal (we don't know yet), I think the results are well worth testing.

[Randomnamechange]

i dont think that ICs are the best role to have in a newbie

[Creature]

I present you my Matrix5:

	Column A	Column B	Column C
Row 1	Town Cop	Vanilla Town	Town Doctor	Mafia Roleblocker
Row 2	Vanilla Town	Town Jailkeeper	Town Tracker	Mafia Roleblocker
	Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon

[Antihero]

do u have any statistics to back up the claim the setup is unbalanced?

[RadiantCowbells]

they exist yes

[mhsmith0]

do u have any statistics to back up the claim the setup is unbalanced?

I mean, statistics exist that show that matrix6 as currently structured is very reasonably balanced. BP setups are a bit lower winrate but I believe still north of 40%, which I'd think is pretty reasonable for the "worst" of the setups balance wise.

[Antihero]

40% town win or scum win?

[mhsmith0]

40% town. I think only cop/doc/rb is above 50% town win rate.

[Randomnamechange]

I present you my Matrix5:

	Column A	Column B	Column C
Row 1	Town Cop	Vanilla Town	Town Doctor	Mafia Roleblocker
Row 2	Vanilla Town	Town Jailkeeper	Town Tracker	Mafia Roleblocker
	Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon	Mafia Goon

can't tracker auto claim day one and either set up a follow the tracker or a WIFOM on Jk protection?

[Antihero]

yeah... that's what i thought

i'm p much reading the op as "oh poo, there's a little challenge to playing scum."

that's the way it should be. 7:2 is scumsided and town need some power to even the odds.

[Antihero]

follow the tracker is very far from "broken." as is the bulletproof ic situation pine pointed out. (for anyone curious, scum won that game thinkbig pulled the quote from)

[RadiantCowbells]

You're missing the point. the setups are scumsided.

I would be okay with them being townsided because that's more fun for the majority of pepole. scumsided games are not fun.

[mhsmith0]

So the spreadsheet link on
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739

got pulled for some reason, but as of the 2/22/17 download, I've got:

Setup Town Wins Scum Wins T% S% Total
1 (J) 30 33 47.6% 52.4% 63
2 (RCD) 38 33 53.5% 46.5% 71
3 (BT) 27 39 40.9% 59.1% 66
A (JRB) 28 42 40.0% 60.0% 70
B (C) 30 33 47.6% 52.4% 63
C (DT) 29 38 43.3% 56.7% 67
Total 182 218 45.5% 54.5% 400

which seems overall entirely fine balance-wise, especially with the possibility that day one BP claims will improve the 3/A town win rates going forward (possibly at the cost of town win rates in B I guess)

I don't especially see why there should be any kind of change to matrix6; it seems relatively easy to understand, it's extremely well balanced overall over a sample size that's easily credible (in total), none of the six individual setups are especially off balance-wise, the mechanics and incentives are overall fairly well understood and easy to explain to newbies, and a well understood setup allows more of a focus on scum-hunting in general instead of every game being "let's try and figure out wtf this new setup even is".

[RadiantCowbells]

I would like to change 1-shot BP to 2-shot BP but that's about it.

[Creature]

I would like to change 1-shot BP to 2-shot BP but that's about it.

Me too

[gigabyteTroubadour]

why not just full bp...?

[Creature]

Like a bulletproof named townie?

[mhsmith0]

why not just full bp...?

Because that makes someone completely indestructible and scum can get never get rid of them. That's pretty OP in the hands of a good player, and I don't think that's much fair to the scum team.

[Antihero]

why not just full bp...?

Because that makes someone completely indestructible and scum can get never get rid of them. That's pretty OP in the hands of a good player, and I don't think that's much fair to the scum team.

if u made it a full bp i doubt it would move that win % more than a couple points

even in the face of that 40% win rate you think taking off the one shot would swing the setup THAT much?

[mhsmith0]

Potentially. It also means that the first scum lynch forces scum into a 50-50 shot at LYLO (and that's if they run the table on other mislynches), or forces an endless cycle of "shoot the BP" at MYLO (which is just a crappy game state for everyone). I feel like neither of those are healthy outcomes, and am honestly curious whether the current meta adjustment by itself more or less fixes the relatively low BP win rates.

[gigabyteTroubadour]

why not just full bp...?

Because that makes someone completely indestructible and scum can get never get rid of them. That's pretty OP in the hands of a good player, and I don't think that's much fair to the scum team.

well yeah but is there a reason to even shoot a 2-shot BP?

like i get shooting a OS Bp at some situations but in what situations would shooting a 2s bp be smart? the same ones? idk you're not forcing the game into evens as quickly when you shoot at a bp twice i guess but 3 days in a micro is basically the whole game and i dont think devoting all of the night kills to one slot would be worthwhile

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I think that 2-shot BP is probably overpowered for the same reason. I've kind of gone back and forth on BP setups in my head, but I think ultimately they're a bit lower than I'd like but acceptable, and they're part of an overall whole 45% win rate that is VERY acceptable, and it's possible that RC's mech strategy will bring BP setups up a few points and the overall win rate up a point or two, getting even closer to overall balance.

[mhsmith0]

FWIW I rather suspect that tighter standards on who is allowed to IC as well as how actively helpful and teaching they're expected to be (one easy example: slapping on a "hi everyone I'm the IC here's a bit of intro theory and/or links" opening post and then acting like a normal player the rest of the way becomes actively unacceptable conduct for an IC) would also help town win rates (as well as newbie development), though I don't know how much anyone really wants to get into that battle *shrugs*