activity level is not a reliable scumtell

[Infinity 324]

easier to lose motivation as scum.

unless you prefer being scum




being town is the worst

I prefer being scum until it's d3 and I don't give a shit anymore

[Psyche]

I've done repeated studies on this. Both the average number of words per post and the average number of posts per game are

identical

across alliance in games on mafiascum.net. In fact, I segmented games and game Days by their amount of completion and confirmed across each and every one of those segments that the average number of words per post and the average number of posts per game are

identical

across alliance in games on mafiascum.net.

Let me be really clear. On average, scum post just as often as town do. They use as many words as town do. This isn't just true at the start of games, but in the middle, and near the end of games, too. Don't use activity as a scumtell unless you have a really special reason! I will find you and berate you.

[Psyche]

Very high activity and effort (and this part is important) over the course of the game is a towntell because it's easier to lose motivation as scum. Otherwise I generally agree.

WRONG

[RadiantCowbells]

In my experience that is not true Psyche.

[Psyche]

do whatever you want with ur experience i guess

[Vijarada]

psyche's (presumably) actual data should probably override your anecdotal data.

[kuribo]

Shit tells and shitty site meta and shit PoE "confirms and clears" are why being town on this site is as much fun as trying to find a parking spot at the beach on Memorial Day.

And if you think about it, isn't that the point? Parking. And driving. And shopping. And eating. And working. Somewhere, somehow, they're different now, none of 'em are the same, they all got chewed up and spit back out, and they don't taste like living anymore! Don't you see what it's like in this deranged Waring Blender of a world?! Every day is an agonizing ordeal, like balancing a pot of scalding water on your head while people whip your legs and butt … Aaaah, you never forget your senior prom … YOU think I'm "sick"?! Well the only disease I've got is "Modern Life," a schnutbusting gauntlet of inefficiency and misery that's one long parade of let-downs, put-downs, trickle downs, shutouts, freeze outs, sell-outs, numbnuts, nincompoops and nimrods, all making every day as much fun as waxing a flaming Pontiac with your tongue, where even if you do luck into the possibility of some fleeting pleasure, like, say, if some nymphomaniac telephone operator with the muscle control of Romanian mat-slappers agree to a little strip air hockey, it'll be over before it starts 'cuz some vowel-lacking, feta-reeking cab-jockey slams his checker up your hatchback and the cab is owned by some pinata spanker from a Santeria cult in Xoacalpa who starts shaking chicken bones at you and gives you a boil on your neck so big all it needs is Michael Jordan's autograph to make it complete, and even with all this, with ALL THIS, I still drag my sorry butt off the Sealy every morning and stick my face in the reaping machine for one more day, knowing when it's time to flash the cosmic card key at those Pearly Gates, I won't be in the coffin anyway 'cuz some underhanded undertaker sold my heart, pancreas and other assorted Good 'N' Plenty to that same Santeria cult! So does ANYBODY really wonder why ANYBODY is hanging onto sanity by the atoms on the tips of their fingernails while life dirty-dances on their digits?! And is it really any wonder that I seem DERANGED???!!

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Shit tells and shitty site meta and shit PoE "confirms and clears" are why being town on this site is as much fun as trying to find a parking spot at the beach on Memorial Day.

I think I'm going to sig this

[RadiantCowbells]

psyche's (presumably) actual data should probably override your anecdotal data.

If he provides sources and more detail I can do something with that.

[Papa Zito]

here's a tip. the only way activity level is ever ever ever alignment indicative is if you have an established, reliable meta of that specific player across many games. otherwise it's a useless thing to chase. there are a billion reasons a player is or isn't active. their alignment may be one of them, but you have literally no way of knowing unless there's an established pattern having to do with THAT ONE PLAYER.

lolmeta

[Gammagooey]

here's a tip. the only way activity level is ever ever ever alignment indicative is if you have an established, reliable meta of that specific player across many games. otherwise it's a useless thing to chase. there are a billion reasons a player is or isn't active. their alignment may be one of them, but you have literally no way of knowing unless there's an established pattern having to do with THAT ONE PLAYER.

lolmeta

[Nahdia]

Meta is somewhat unreliable but it's better than trying to apply generalizations to the entire player base of the site

[implosion]

Activity in a vacuum is a horrible tell if it even qualifies as a tell.

Activity in context can be situationally useful; not just in the context of a player's meta, but in the context of the game being played. If scum are stomping a game and Player X is in the game and has a history of losing motivation in games that they're losing but they are still actively trying to lead discussion that may tell you something. If the game's activity as a whole is stalling and scum might be content to just let it stagnate to death, and Player Y starts actively trying to engage specific players, that may be useful information.

Honestly the context of the game is probably more important than the context of the player's meta here.

[McMenno]

prodge

[Firebringer]

i think overall scum might post as many words, but they post less frequently than town. Especially from the latest site meta.
Last 10 games, there has been maybe 4-5 active scum players total. And by active I mean they are in the top 30% of posters in the game they are in.

Not all scum lurk, but most people who play scum on this site do lurk as scum.

[Firebringer]

On a more serious note, very high activity is USUALLY a town-tell, especially if said person is doing a bunch of stuff in a non-wolfy way. Beyond that, town or scum can very easily be medium to essentially zero activity, and as someone who's gotten pressured repeatedly (as town!) for "why isn't smith obvtown yet" and "why isn't smith tryharding yet" I have some symphathy to this.

[RadiantCowbells]

In like my last 15 games, besides Watchmen, the only time scum has been in the top echelon of posters has been when it was me.

Hell, I was the highest poster on my team in Civ and I replaced in day 5 or something.

[Psyche]

nah on average scum make about the same number of posts as town, and their posts have about as many words

[Firebringer]

nah on average scum make about the same number of posts as town, and their posts have about as many words

I guess I should say "frequency"? Like maybe scum does a burst of posts to make it look like they are more active than they are, where as a town would be consistently posting around same each day more likely.

I feel like I am moving goal posts, but I really feel there is a difference.

[Psyche]

i didnt think it was worth making a big thread about because no one seemed to believe activity related with alliance anyway
but one of these days i'll do the study again and post a bunch of figures and data showing it
there are some analyses i missed, but if town are more likely to be in the top echelon of posters than scum (controlling for the fact that there are fewer scum), that would mean that town are also more likely to be in the bottom echelon, since on average they post the equal amounts

[chamber]

That isn't inherently surprising as a possibility? One scum strategy is blending in, you'd expect them to be bad at imitating extremes.

[Infinity 324]

Might also have to do with town replacing out more when they are busy and scum feeling less responsibility or strategically lurking sometimes.

[Psyche]

Maybe it wouldn't be inherently surprising, but I'd bet it's not true.

Anyway, I have some notes in my old code from the last time I did the study. The average

number of words per post

for town was 92.1811146348 with a standard deviation of 111.317352433. For scum it was 94.0915514783 with a stdev of 117.928753607. And these numbers might just be D1 stats.

Can't find numbers for average number of posts.

[Killthestory]

when you pressure, you should consciously expect a certain reaction for scum and for town within a broad expanse. If you're just pressuring to get any reaction, you're not only fucking doing nothing, but you also look like an idiot for calling literally any reaction scummy.

[chamber]

Maybe it wouldn't be inherently surprising, but I'd bet it's not true.

Anyway, I have some notes in my old code from the last time I did the study. The average

number of words per post

for town was 92.1811146348 with a standard deviation of 111.317352433. For scum it was 94.0915514783 with a stdev of 117.928753607. And these numbers might just be D1 stats.

Can't find numbers for average number of posts.

If I was going to guess when I expected activity to be most different, it would be around key moments. So things like claims by townies, beginning of days, beginning of the game.