activity level is not a reliable scumtell

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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:17 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 74, Kmd4390 wrote:It's the logic behind what you are saying.
No.
everyone is scared of being scum
Lots of people don't like playing as scum and some hate rolling it, some are terrified it. I think everyone who has played scum know a time when they at least felt anxious to post when they were pressured, where they were like "What do I do, I am CAUGHT!" you might call this "fear" but I still experience it all the time, and I don't think I fear playing scum at all.

And its because of that anxiety that scum have hard time keeping up IMO. Also the fact they aren't required to post. I know for a fact there are moments I don't need to post as scum, but I would as town.

nobody has a life outside of mafiascum
Not sure the point of this. My thing was stating if your scum, your just going to not post at same times as you were as town and your probably going to post less. Has nothing to do with whats going in your life, but people might actually be more likely use RL to not post as scum, although you can say they might do same as town because some don't even like playing town.
everybody plays scum the same way
I keep going back and forth on this in my own mind. The strategy almost every scum uses is the same. The way they do it might vary, but its in no way as varied as I would see Town.

I think town are more wiling to experiment in the way they play the game.
Scum like to stick with the basics.
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"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:21 pm

Post by Firebringer »

A lot of what I am talking about is really just a personal outlook of the game though, so your mileage will vary.
Like I said before, hard to actually quantify a lot of this shit, because mafia is a game of perception.

Two people will almost always have two different accounts of the same events.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:32 pm

Post by Firebringer »

I might do some research of my own to figure this out.
Probably not a huge sample, but I want to see how accurate this is in for games I have not played in or spectated.

At least then I can just stop talking out of my ass with anecdotal evidence.
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:41 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Call it fear or anxiety. Either way, not everyone experiences it and of those who do, not everyone handles it by posting less. Maybe it applies to you specifically, but that makes it a meta tell. I make a point to post any time I have the free time just so I get townread whether I'm town or scum. So what applies to you doesn't apply to me. It doesn't work as a general tell.

If anyone is using RL as an excuse when RL isn't actually what is stopping them from posting, that's not someone I want to play with because that's outside the spirit of the game. (By the way, when you say "your" when you mean "you're, it makes your post difficult to read. Please fix that.)

Your third point is just...wow. No. If you've never seen a brilliant fakeclaim or scum controlling the game, you have a ton of mafia to play before you can even enter this debate. Scum who stick to basics or lurk aren't scum who win most of the time. Sure you might get lucky. But scum with high win rates probably aren't people who play scum your way.
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:44 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 78, Kmd4390 wrote:No. If you've never seen a brilliant fakeclaim or scum controlling the game, you have a ton of mafia to play before you can even enter this debate
umm......Fuck you?
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"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:47 pm

Post by Psyche »

sigh

no amount of arguing will resolve this
should just wait for or get the stats
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:48 pm

Post by Firebringer »

Spoiler: My Data Collection
Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum


Spoiler: Analysis
Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:54 pm

Post by Firebringer »

If people can attack my arguments without telling me all my experiences in mafia are completely invalid, that would be great.

If anyone wants me to tell you how much I have played, its probably more than all of you. Does that mean I know the game more than you? Fuck no.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:55 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

And now we're at profanity.

Maybe I need to avoid MD too and not just games.

Preview edit: Your experiences aren't invalid. They just aren't the ONLY thing that IS valid.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:56 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

If anyone wants me to tell you how much I have played, its probably more than all of you. 
I seriously doubt that
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:58 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

In post 81, Firebringer wrote:
Spoiler: My Data Collection
Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum


Spoiler: Analysis
Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.
60:40 on a small sample size doesn't mean much
KMD is the coolest dude who ever lost a bet to me - vonflare
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:58 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 85, Kmd4390 wrote:
In post 81, Firebringer wrote:
Spoiler: My Data Collection
Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum


Spoiler: Analysis
Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.
60:40 on a small sample size doesn't mean much
Yeah, thats what I said.....
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:59 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 84, Kmd4390 wrote:
If anyone wants me to tell you how much I have played, its probably more than all of you. 
I seriously doubt that
more than 200 plus forum games, across four sites.
I play this game way too much.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:00 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Sorry I was reading that last line as sarcasm

Preview edit:
Yeah I've got that beat
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:01 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

My wiki shows 134 games but hasn't been updated in about six or seven years and doesn't include alts.
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:06 pm

Post by Psyche »

...
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:06 pm

Post by Nahdia »

nerds
we're all made of stories | remember to take your b12 | sign up for a GTKAS thread! (request access here)

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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:08 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 91, Nahdia wrote:nerds
ur a hipster.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:11 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

In post 91, Nahdia wrote:nerds
No
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:35 pm

Post by kuribo »

In post 81, Firebringer wrote:
Spoiler: My Data Collection
Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum


Spoiler: Analysis
Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.
What if I told you that as the game goes on, the winning faction is more likely to have more posts because people can't post after they've died, and the losing faction has lost more people
Join me on my quest to play every NES game! Some of them are awful.

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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:37 pm

Post by Firebringer »

In post 94, kuribo wrote:
In post 81, Firebringer wrote:
Spoiler: My Data Collection
Mini Normal 1874 Camping Trip Mafia, Top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1873 top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1888 Two Face Mafia, 1 of Top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1883 Under the Sea, top three posters all town
Mini 1875 Pines Death Trap, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1897, 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1865, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1871: 1 of top three posters was scum
Mini Normal 1854, top three posters all town
Mini Normal 1860, 1 of top three posters was scum


Spoiler: Analysis
Guess this shows, if you want to expand that into making broad assertions, this means in 60% of games, the town are the ones controlling the conversation completely. In 40% of games the scum are in the top posters. I think I could point out how no scum was ever the top poster, but I think that is just nitpicking. This just shows me the data didn't really back up my own thoughts.

Guess I was wrong. Or I got to collect a bigger sample.
Meh.

Guess I am full of shit.
What if I told you that as the game goes on, the winning faction is more likely to have more posts because people can't post after they've died, and the losing faction has lost more people
My mind might shatter.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:41 pm

Post by kuribo »

The point is, you can only analyze those games after the fact

To get a real assessment you'd have to break it down by day, averaging down who has the most posts by day


Otherwise, for example if I'm scum and I have 100 posts but die N1, I won't have near the number of posts that even a lurksack lynchbait will have on day 8. He'd be in the top three, maybe, but definitely have more posts than me. but absolutely not controlling the tone or conversation.
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:48 pm

Post by Alisae »

Also replacements are a thing.
GTKAS
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:57 pm

Post by Psyche »

my analysis focused on D1 and took replacements into account
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Sun Apr 09, 2017 7:58 pm

Post by Firebringer »

Then psyche analysis is the best.
Show
"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.

His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown
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