playing as Town: when NOT to reevaluate.

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playing as Town: when NOT to reevaluate.

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:51 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Have you ever been really sure someone is Scum (correctly) and then just completely reevaluated them to a Town read? I have many many times.

My question is asking for what other experienced players methods are for finding Scum and sticking to their read on them.

Part of what makes this difficult is that I DO actually have the ability to poke holes in just about everything. So its not like I am not able to find Scum, because I am. My problem comes in knowing what info to rely on to be more valid in terms of knowing that thing I was poking at actually means they are Scum.

Example:

I was able to play in the Mafia Championships game. sometime near halfway through D1 I made a reads list with all three Scum in by bottom 4:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... ost1195115

Then later in the day I reevaluated this list and my second list was nothing like this.

Another example from that same game:

http://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/thr ... ost1202184

This is a case I made on a Scum who made it to F3. I changed the read later to him being a Town read.

Why do I do this and what is the trick to sticking to a solid Scum read?

Note: this is a discussion prolly not suited to people who don't know what looks Scummy and what doesn't.
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:13 pm

Post by CommKnight »

The problem is what OTHERS do. I mean take my games for example. At one point or another, I'll have the majority of scum team in a scum-read list and then completely go for another person or group because of something they've done that drew my attention to them.

That's part of mafia though. You'll never shake it. I call some of the scummy acts as too scummy to be scum and thus TR them. But there'll always be someone who wants to push their narrative and draws your eyes on them and away from those that are scummy (and will end up being the actual scum that for some reason others aren't SR'ing).
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:36 am

Post by wylted »

Reevaluation does not mean you change your reads necessarily, it just means you check your premises and be sure that you're using all the available and relevant information
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:36 am

Post by Zachrulez »

I usually don't change scum reads to town without a really good reason to do so.
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:49 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

never re-evaluate
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:03 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 3, Zachrulez wrote:I usually don't change scum reads to town without a really good reason to do so.
I understand what you are saying here. I need to know HOW to do that not what to do.
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:18 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

A lot of it is thinking through what made you re-evaluate and how valid that was. Sometimes someone is scum but playing a villagery game, and re-evaluating was fair, and they just played well and you were wrong. Sometimes you're manipulated into re-evaluating. etc etc
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:24 pm

Post by implosion »

In post 6, mhsmith0 wrote:A lot of it is thinking through what made you re-evaluate and how valid that was. Sometimes someone is scum but playing a villagery game, and re-evaluating was fair, and they just played well and you were wrong. Sometimes you're manipulated into re-evaluating. etc etc
Wise words.

It's basically just the same as getting better at scumhunting in general. Sometimes an early scumread will start doing things that are legitimately unlikely to come from them as scum. Reevaluating in light of things like that is good. It can help to be very vocal about reads that you're flipping on, because other players can comment on whether the new information you see is really worth discounting previous scummy actions. Ask yourself if the player in question would have done what they did as scum with the knowledge that you were scumreading then, because they thought it could change your read on them. Always try to figure out motivations behind actions.
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 1:27 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 7, implosion wrote:
In post 6, mhsmith0 wrote:A lot of it is thinking through what made you re-evaluate and how valid that was. Sometimes someone is scum but playing a villagery game, and re-evaluating was fair, and they just played well and you were wrong. Sometimes you're manipulated into re-evaluating. etc etc
Wise words.

It's basically just the same as getting better at scumhunting in general. Sometimes an early scumread will start doing things that are legitimately unlikely to come from them as scum. Reevaluating in light of things like that is good. It can help to be very vocal about reads that you're flipping on, because other players can comment on whether the new information you see is really worth discounting previous scummy actions. Ask yourself if the player in question would have done what they did as scum with the knowledge that you were scumreading then, because they thought it could change your read on them. Always try to figure out motivations behind actions.
Agreed. I think (as I saw in another thread) sometimes you might want to bounce off your reads off someone else ITT and share how you are reevaluating the slot. Even if they are Scum they might point you in the right direction if you are both coming at things from a logical standpoint. *shrug*
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:28 pm

Post by VysePresident »

I tend to work from the idea of forming a stable position in the game.

I frequently adjust and even re-evaluate key parts of the game, but the trick is to consider what is most likely just paranoia and what is a true read with substance to it.

It helps that the way I read people almost necessarily allows for a million branching paths, and coalesces from there.
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Thu Jun 22, 2017 8:35 pm

Post by mastina »

This is what my balance of possibilities vs. probabilities is based around, and the example which made me write that article is essentially Reasonably Rational from Steven Universe 2.

For essentially the whole game, I had thought they were scum, for various different reasons.
Yet I survived to lylo.
With them alive.

Paranoia would have made me make the wrong call.
Being a stubborn asshole who never reevaluated would have made me a dick.

So what I did was weigh all the facts, all the evidence I could find and checked it: "How much do I really believe this?"
"Is this just a possibility, or is it something actually probably true?"
"Is this valid, or me bullshitting?"
"Am I confbiasing, or am I sincerely, genuinely in the right to hold this stance?"
"How much do I think this point is actually worth?"

And the like.

The overall conclusion: in
that particular instance
, yes, I really wasn't confbiasing, yes, it was paranoia, and yes, I did vote right by using the evidence.

But I use this process even outside of lylo. It never stops. Reassessing a read is a constant, never-ending process. 90% of the time, the read stays the same...or if not the same, similar. Shifts in reads can be subtle, can be minor, off of the scales tipping ever so slightly in one direction more than they did before. Yet in that reevaluation, often, the answer is, if honest: "Yeah. I think I have a point here. So I am going to push it."
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:51 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:09 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

I think the only person that can make you re-eval your read is your read only. If townies are talking you down it's because they're wrong, and that other person agreeing with you doesn't eliminate any possible teams.

I'm firmly in the always re-evaluate camp, but I recognize that I need to pull the trigger and put my scumreads out. I played a game where I told myself I was going to kick scream and cry my way to lynching my scumreads, and I ended up game throwing hard for no reason. What's worse is that I went from 0/3 scum pegged to 2/3 the page before the game ending scum hammer. I had a good reason to assume the townie I was lynching was scum, because they were arguing a confscum position, but I never asked myself who would have been the third mafiaso if not them. The moment I stopped game solving was the moment the town became hostage to someone forcefully misplaying.

I adopted a much more flexible playstyle since... Which I don't like. I think the moral of the thread should be don't be afraid to be a dick.
In post 10, mastina wrote:"Is this valid, or me bullshitting?"
I think scum!lycan only knows how to spew bullshit and scum!lycan is fully aware of why it's bullshit. Town!lycan never has to resort to it, so I don't ever worry about this.
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:04 pm

Post by VysePresident »

In post 12, Lycanfire wrote:
In post 10, mastina wrote:"Is this valid, or me bullshitting?"
I think scum!lycan only knows how to spew bullshit and scum!lycan is fully aware of why it's bullshit. Town!lycan never has to resort to it, so I don't ever worry about this.
I'd argue that the difference is that Scum already know that what they're saying is BS.

Townies have to figure it out the hard way.

Every game.
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Mon Jun 26, 2017 10:18 pm

Post by VysePresident »

In post 11, LicketyQuickety wrote:@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?
The problem is, you can't know without reviewing.

The only real answer I can give you is to understand the comparative strength of your reads. (After trimming out feelings and quirks you might think are just paranoia and/or BS.) There are nearly an infinite numbers of 'paths' that could explain any single action. The trick to making it useful is to learn how to recognize which reads of yours are more trustworthy than others.

That's what I mean when I say to form a 'base'. I try find something in the game that I can solve easily, be it a scum read, or a town read, or really anything alignment indicative. I then use this piece as a means to better understand the game. I often double check this 'base', but as long as it seems reasonable, I keep returning to it. It's only when my understanding of the game is obviously screwed up (I.e. I'm Townreading everyone at the end of the game.) that I know at least one of my major premises is wrong and needs adjusting.

The short of it is to start open-minded, and then coalesce slowly. You've always impressed me with how powerful your intuition is, but back when I had time to play, you always got carried out to sea by it. You never really had any set bearings - which is how in that one Midnight Sun game, you nailed Soren perfectly in his first post, but got distracted in short order. (Ironically, we ended up arguing over which scumread to lynch when we were both correct, if I remember right. XD)

You need something to anchor yourself to, basically. Mastin's 'Probabilities vs. Possibilities' is a pretty rule of thumb, really. The rest should be reviewed constantly.

This has been your 4 AM VyseRant.
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:51 am

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 14, VysePresident wrote:
In post 11, LicketyQuickety wrote:@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?
The problem is, you can't know without reviewing.

The only real answer I can give you is to understand the comparative strength of your reads. (After trimming out feelings and quirks you might think are just paranoia and/or BS.) There are nearly an infinite numbers of 'paths' that could explain any single action. The trick to making it useful is to learn how to recognize which reads of yours are more trustworthy than others.

That's what I mean when I say to form a 'base'. I try find something in the game that I can solve easily, be it a scum read, or a town read, or really anything alignment indicative. I then use this piece as a means to better understand the game. I often double check this 'base', but as long as it seems reasonable, I keep returning to it. It's only when my understanding of the game is obviously screwed up (I.e. I'm Townreading everyone at the end of the game.) that I know at least one of my major premises is wrong and needs adjusting.

The short of it is to start open-minded, and then coalesce slowly. You've always impressed me with how powerful your intuition is, but back when I had time to play, you always got carried out to sea by it. You never really had any set bearings - which is how in that one Midnight Sun game, you nailed Soren perfectly in his first post, but got distracted in short order. (Ironically, we ended up arguing over which scumread to lynch when we were both correct, if I remember right. XD)

You need something to anchor yourself to, basically. Mastin's 'Probabilities vs. Possibilities' is a pretty rule of thumb, really. The rest should be reviewed constantly.

This has been your 4 AM VyseRant.
Thanks, I think you nailed this one right on its head. Its true, I do have a pretty powerful intuition, and its true I get carried away by it. You are right, the trick is seeing what is most likely as opposed to simply making an elaborate read that may or may not be true. I am going to experiment a bit with the idea of playing a bit more careful and not changing my mind on a whim. Basically I just want to learn how to not change my mind unless I have a solid reason for it. Some people do not have the intuition I have and can't make as good of reads as I can, but they are better players than I am simply because they are more grounded and can use more info ITT to make a more informed read. I have to work on this.
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:07 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

I actually think this has to do with the fact that my brain works differently than other people. I don't think the same way as other people and that is fact. I have been diagnosed with a serious mental illness. Naturally, its reasonable for me to question myself because of this.

This isn't the same thing as what mastina is talking about. I literally do not know how to prioritize information. Everything seems equally likely to me.
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:56 pm

Post by Lycanfire »

what's your myers-briggs personality type, lickety?
just took a look at the thread. ISTP explains you perfectly. i don't think i have any worthwhile advice for someone with a dominant Ti. maybe get less personal? you would have less variables to consider.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:00 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

Who fucking knows, honestly.

I am a complicated mess. That is my type.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:08 pm

Post by Zachrulez »

In post 11, LicketyQuickety wrote:@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?
Going at scumhunting with the approach of being afraid of lynching a townie is the wrong way to go about things. What you want to do is look for what lynch is your best shot at hitting scum. Look at your reasoning and your lynch targets and then see what your hit rate is like. You're never going to be right 100% of the time, but hopefully you're right a good amount of the time.
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:43 pm

Post by LicketyQuickety »

In post 19, Zachrulez wrote:
In post 11, LicketyQuickety wrote:@mastina,

My problem is more viewing things in the angle that my previous Scum read is Town. I don't want to be wrong so I try to view it from a different angle. Sadly, this is actually counter-effective. What I try to do with my Scum reads (possibly incorrectly) is view them asking myself "could this come from Town?" Obviously, its apparent this is not working for me. My fear in this is lynching a Townie, ofc obviously. At what point, or rather, to what perspective should I be viewing players instead?
Going at scumhunting with the approach of being afraid of lynching a townie is the wrong way to go about things. What you want to do is look for what lynch is your best shot at hitting scum. Look at your reasoning and your lynch targets and then see what your hit rate is like. You're never going to be right 100% of the time, but hopefully you're right a good amount of the time.
I originally wanted to just write this comment off as basic shit I already know, but that was because its kinda a sensitive issue for me. After rereading this comment I see how it fits and though it appears obvious, this is because it is logical and hence makes sense. Thanks.
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Sun Jul 02, 2017 1:29 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

outside of a few actions which (contextually) i could never see coming from one alignment or could only see coming from one alignment, i think you should look at each action on a spectrum of how likely it is to come from town and scum and then balance it out at the end for your read - ideally your read should be formed from multiple posts (ideally, the vast majority) on one end of the town->scum spectrum

if, in the end, you happen to change your read from a correct one to an incorrect one then at least you can look back at where you put which posts on the spectrum and figure out where you went wrong (which is the difficult part but the part that yields the most value if you manage to do it correctly)

as far as preventative measures, there aren't any, except insofar as continuous improvement and trying not to make the same mistakes is preventative. re-evaluating reads is, in general, good (not necessarily
rethinking
, but just reading things from a different perspective or assessing whether your reasoning holds water), so you don't want to not do that... you just want to make sure that your criteria for evaluation is as correct as it can possibly be
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:37 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Generally, are early game town reads or scum reads more trustworthy? I'd guess town by the virtue of there being more.
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