Inferno's Mafia Theory

[Inferno390]

This is some Mafia theory that I've put together from reading over the wiki and giving some thought to how the game of Mafia works. But I would like some input on the matter.

Inferno's Hypothesis on Mokina's Conjecture of the effects of mith's Principle and Stoofer's Observation:

Through the existence of Mokina's Conjecture on previous points made in relation to Stoofer's Law, those who read through the imformation regarding given law will, while have the equal and opposite psychological impetus as given in Mokina's Conjecture, they will also disregard this impetus through knowledge of its existence, and so comply to mith's Principle. This hypothesis, however, will cause those same people to regard this impetus through the fact that it has been stated that that it will be disregarded, leading us directly into a WIFOM and causing all argument to be made on the matter of Stoofer's Second Law irregardless and unimportant.

(Made in light of Stoofer's Second Law and all observations on it. The discussion can be found here: viewtopic.php?f=5&t=2946)

Inferno’s First Theorem

At any point in a Mafia game, the value of a scumread can be given by the constant

K

, where

K

is the product of Mafia integration into town and the total posts made in the game.

Inferno’s Second Theorem

In large community settings where a specific game or type of game is played, the term “current meta” is irrelevant; instead, all players bring a specific playstyle to the game that causes the meta to be in fluctuating equilibrium; that is, for every player who modifies his playstyle to fit a certain aspect of the meta, there will be another player who modifies their playstyle to fill this empty role.

Inferno’s Chaos Law

Due to the fact that the creation of Mafia theory provides input to a system (the community in which it is proposed), any theory not dealing with a fundamental truth of the game becomes irrelevant once publicly know due to further observations on the state of the game and the phycological impetus given to players from the information.

Corollary to Inferno’s Chaos Law

There exist two type of Mafia theory: Mafia theory on technicalities of the game that derive information from the phycology of player and statistical evidence of a given game, and fundamental truths of the game that cannot be ignored. The formers should be termed as

Theory

, and can become obsolete based on new observation, while the latter is better defined as

Universal Law

, and represents a truth of the game that does not change in any game.

 

Inferno’s First Universal Truth

The skill of one player compared to another is percentagely proportional to the time that both players have spent actively playing Mafia games.

Please discuss!

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: Inferno390

I think there’s supposed to be a theory for this one...

[Ranmaru]

Vote: Inferno390

CHOO CHOO

[Virtuoso]

VOTE: Inferno

The inferno train has no breaks

[Inferno390]

Wait, why are we voting for me? Unless this has to do with Mr. Stoofer's Second Law.
In any case, VOTE: Inferno

[Gorny]

Double

VOTE: Inferno

[Inferno390]

But seriously guys, any thoughts on the other theories?

[Virtuoso]

Dayvig Inferno

[Inferno390]

Dayvig Inferno

Claim Bulletproof

[Virtuoso]

Strongman Dayvig Inferno

[Sunlit Diamond]

The skill of one player compared to another is percentagely proportional to the time that both players have spent actively playing Mafia games.

This might be true here (I don't actually know, thus the 'might'), but it's not true universally, for damn certain.

[Inferno390]

The skill of one player compared to another is percentagely proportional to the time that both players have spent actively playing Mafia games.

This might be true here (I don't actually know, thus the 'might'), but it's not true universally, for damn certain.

Why not universally? The law basically says, "the longer you've played Mafia actively, the better you are."

Not defending the theorem, I just want to hear your elaboration. My goal is to get this Mafia theory right.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I know people who have played mafia for years who are utter crap at it. I also know people who have played only a few games and are scary good. That is how I know it isn't true.

From that knowledge, I can state the following:

It is true that a not great player can become a great player through lots of practice and steady research. (per your theorem)

It's also true that there are not-great players who will

never

be great players, even if they try. Most of the time they don't try, and instead insist they are great no matter what anyone else says.

It's also true that there are people in the world with a strong grasp of human nature, understanding of strategy, and flexibility in thought processes who will become great players after only one or two games because of natural inclination toward the kind of thought required.

And finally, it is true that there can be combinations of 1 and 3. People who started off not-great, did some research, put the pieces together, had an "AHA!" moment, and from that point on were able to naturally grasp what used to take loads of research to achieve.

[hitogoroshi]

Inferno’s First Theorem

At any point in a Mafia game, the value of a scumread can be given by the constant

K

, where

K

is the product of Mafia integration into town and the total posts made in the game.

Nonsense. There are plenty of tells that are just as strong at the very start of the game as later. Good examples are too-obvious Traitor crumbs, or scum revealing role info they shouldn't know.

Inferno’s Second Theorem

In large community settings where a specific game or type of game is played, the term “current meta” is irrelevant; instead, all players bring a specific playstyle to the game that causes the meta to be in fluctuating equilibrium; that is, for every player who modifies his playstyle to fit a certain aspect of the meta, there will be another player who modifies their playstyle to fill this empty role.

This doesn't even make sense as a statement. What is an "aspect of the meta"? What is a "role" with regard to the meta? All "meta" means is "factors influencing the game that are outside the game itself"; e.g, whether scum will try fakeclaiming miller in their first post is a function of what proportion of games in recent memory have had cops, and have had true millers claiming in their first post. So it's definitely relevant - it's the ideas of "aspects of meta" that isn't well-defined. Also don't use "his" as your generic pronoun.

Inferno’s Chaos Law

Due to the fact that the creation of Mafia theory provides input to a system (the community in which it is proposed), any theory not dealing with a fundamental truth of the game becomes irrelevant once publicly know due to further observations on the state of the game and the phycological impetus given to players from the information.

Some actions increase the towns chances of winning, and some actions increase the scums chance of winning. So a softer version of the town-sided half of this is true: actions that help the town to win are more likely to come from town, but if it is common knowledge that those actions help town, the strength of that "more likely" decreases. However, "irrelevant" is a huge exaggeration - someone help town in an obvious way is still more likely than

random

to be town.

Corollary to Inferno’s Chaos Law

There exist two type of Mafia theory: Mafia theory on technicalities of the game that derive information from the phycology of player and statistical evidence of a given game, and fundamental truths of the game that cannot be ignored. The formers should be termed as

Theory

, and can become obsolete based on new observation, while the latter is better defined as

Universal Law

, and represents a truth of the game that does not change in any game.

If you try to construct a universal law, you're going to discover pretty quick that you need to rely on the "technicalities of the game" to bound your set of "any game" such that I can't find a counterexample to your universal law. So this binomial distinction is silly. This should just be "Some statements about mafia games are more general than others".

Inferno’s First Universal Truth

The skill of one player compared to another is percentagely proportional to the time that both players have spent actively playing Mafia games.

Like literally any human skill, practice is a significant factor but not a strict determinant. I encourage you to read any book about any human being who was a "top" in their field. It's the same story of combining talent, work, effective mentorship, related skills, and dumb luck.

I know this seems harsh, but it's because I want to be harsh for your own good. It's a natural human instinct to want to put your name on stuff, and you're not the first player or even hundredth who's come to MD trying to hype up their own name. I knew this would all be nonsense just by the fact you included multiple "laws" with your name on them, before I had even read them. And given I work in mathematics and data analysis, I see plenty of people who take this attitude into their professional careers, where it's just as stupid and wrong, only there it actually causes direct human suffering because people actually try to

use

the stuff. Whereas here, there's nothing at stake so it's a wonderful time to kill the ego.

Don't focus on trying to name things (not just after yourself, but naming in general - this is something I was similarly guilty of in my mafia adolescence). Don't focus on categorizing things. In short, don't go in to Mafia

assuming

there are laws or theorems or tells to be found. It's the nature of the human brain that you'll think you succeeded much more often than you ever do. Just keep your ears open and your mouth shut and see what comes up. I've got about a decade of playing and thinking about Mafia under my belt and all I have to show for it are a handful of sometimes-useful tells and one really good one. But it's been a fun process and the things I've found are a lot more useful than any "universal truth".

[Inferno390]

I know people who have played mafia for years who are utter crap at it. I also know people who have played only a few games and are scary good. That is how I know it isn't true.

From that knowledge, I can state the following:

It is true that a not great player can become a great player through lots of practice and steady research. (per your theorem)

It's also true that there are not-great players who will

never

be great players, even if they try. Most of the time they don't try, and instead insist they are great no matter what anyone else says.

It's also true that there are people in the world with a strong grasp of human nature, understanding of strategy, and flexibility in thought processes who will become great players after only one or two games because of natural inclination toward the kind of thought required.

And finally, it is true that there can be combinations of 1 and 3. People who started off not-great, did some research, put the pieces together, had an "AHA!" moment, and from that point on were able to naturally grasp what used to take loads of research to achieve.

That makes sense.

Inferno’s First Theorem

At any point in a Mafia game, the value of a scumread can be given by the constant

K

, where

K

is the product of Mafia integration into town and the total posts made in the game.

Nonsense. There are plenty of tells that are just as strong at the very start of the game as later. Good examples are too-obvious Traitor crumbs, or scum revealing role info they shouldn't know.

Inferno’s Second Theorem

In large community settings where a specific game or type of game is played, the term “current meta” is irrelevant; instead, all players bring a specific playstyle to the game that causes the meta to be in fluctuating equilibrium; that is, for every player who modifies his playstyle to fit a certain aspect of the meta, there will be another player who modifies their playstyle to fill this empty role.

This doesn't even make sense as a statement. What is an "aspect of the meta"? What is a "role" with regard to the meta? All "meta" means is "factors influencing the game that are outside the game itself"; e.g, whether scum will try fakeclaiming miller in their first post is a function of what proportion of games in recent memory have had cops, and have had true millers claiming in their first post. So it's definitely relevant - it's the ideas of "aspects of meta" that isn't well-defined. Also don't use "his" as your generic pronoun.

Inferno’s Chaos Law

Due to the fact that the creation of Mafia theory provides input to a system (the community in which it is proposed), any theory not dealing with a fundamental truth of the game becomes irrelevant once publicly know due to further observations on the state of the game and the phycological impetus given to players from the information.

Some actions increase the towns chances of winning, and some actions increase the scums chance of winning. So a softer version of the town-sided half of this is true: actions that help the town to win are more likely to come from town, but if it is common knowledge that those actions help town, the strength of that "more likely" decreases. However, "irrelevant" is a huge exaggeration - someone help town in an obvious way is still more likely than

random

to be town.

Corollary to Inferno’s Chaos Law

There exist two type of Mafia theory: Mafia theory on technicalities of the game that derive information from the phycology of player and statistical evidence of a given game, and fundamental truths of the game that cannot be ignored. The formers should be termed as

Theory

, and can become obsolete based on new observation, while the latter is better defined as

Universal Law

, and represents a truth of the game that does not change in any game.

If you try to construct a universal law, you're going to discover pretty quick that you need to rely on the "technicalities of the game" to bound your set of "any game" such that I can't find a counterexample to your universal law. So this binomial distinction is silly. This should just be "Some statements about mafia games are more general than others".

Inferno’s First Universal Truth

The skill of one player compared to another is percentagely proportional to the time that both players have spent actively playing Mafia games.

Like literally any human skill, practice is a significant factor but not a strict determinant. I encourage you to read any book about any human being who was a "top" in their field. It's the same story of combining talent, work, effective mentorship, related skills, and dumb luck.

I know this seems harsh, but it's because I want to be harsh for your own good. It's a natural human instinct to want to put your name on stuff, and you're not the first player or even hundredth who's come to MD trying to hype up their own name. I knew this would all be nonsense just by the fact you included multiple "laws" with your name on them, before I had even read them. And given I work in mathematics and data analysis, I see plenty of people who take this attitude into their professional careers, where it's just as stupid and wrong, only there it actually causes direct human suffering because people actually try to

use

the stuff. Whereas here, there's nothing at stake so it's a wonderful time to kill the ego.

Don't focus on trying to name things (not just after yourself, but naming in general - this is something I was similarly guilty of in my mafia adolescence). Don't focus on categorizing things. In short, don't go in to Mafia

assuming

there are laws or theorems or tells to be found. It's the nature of the human brain that you'll think you succeeded much more often than you ever do. Just keep your ears open and your mouth shut and see what comes up. I've got about a decade of playing and thinking about Mafia under my belt and all I have to show for it are a handful of sometimes-useful tells and one really good one. But it's been a fun process and the things I've found are a lot more useful than any "universal truth".

For a start, you're right about the "universal law."
As another point before I go on, I only gave them that name because I came up with the theories. I'm not trying to get famous because of my theory. I just don't have another name for them (yet).

Now, for the others:
Inferno’s First Theorem:
By what you're saying, any scumread never gets stronger (or weaker) as the game goes on, right? While I agree that there are situations where the Mafia might slip up and give things away, I also know that the longer the game goes on, the less likely that is to happen (unless the Mafia are really stupid, and in that case, how did the game even get that far?). So the longer the game goes on, the harder it is to read a specific player, BUT the more posts they've made, so the more info to scum read with. I understand you're point though.

Inferno's Second Theorem:
Role is basically me saying "how a certain player plays the game." This one needs restating, but the gist is that when you have one person who changes their playstyle, another person will change their own playstyle to unction like the first's original playstyle. That's why when people talk about "current meta," it doesn't mean anything: things are always changing and balancing themselves out.

Chaos Law:
You misunderstand me. This is basically something I got from the idea of Stoofer's Second Law. Whenever someone makes a theory about one specific technical part of the game (X happens when Y happens), as soon as lots of people see that, they'll start taking that law into account (more people will start doing X when Y happens). Then, as more people start analyzing what's going on, more theory will be produced. (People will start doing X when Y happens because of this theory), which leads into a cycle of WIFOM. So Mafia theory can never truly predict a specific part of the game, and theory that DOEs will go obsolete.

Corollary to Chaos Law:
The above leads to the idea that there has to be two kinds of theory: The kind that focuses on a general aspect of the game, and the kind that gets into really specific parts of the game. The former can't really go obsolete, while the latter can by Chaos Law. For example, Stoofer's Second Law is obviously of the latter, while his Fourth Law is of the former. Those were just the names I gave those types of Mafia theory.

And I want you to be harsh. I want that constructive criticism; that's how I'll get better at this sort of thing. But please don't accuse me of trying to put my name on stuff. It's just called Inferno's Mafia Theory because that's what it is: Mafia Theory made by Inferno. I am going to try and get them better names.