Test your VCA skills

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Test your VCA skills

Post Post #0 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:33 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

You have the following information and ONLY the following information:

1) This is a secret alias game (duh)
2) You know that it's 13/4
3) Every slot colored green is a dead villager, the one red slot is a dead wolf
4) At the dawn of day 5, it's now 6/3
5) For clarity, night kills were:
N1 Colonel Mustard
N2 Monseur Brunette
N3 Professor Plum
N4 Dr. Orchid

Who does VCA point to as being likely town? Who likely wolf? And why?

Spoiler:
VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
6
Mr. Green
Dr. Orchid
(40), Madame Rose (48), The Cook (38), Mrs. White (59),
Professor Plum
(246),
Monsieur Brunette
(245)
3
Captain Brown
The Butler (93), Mr. Boddy (39), Captain Brown (28)
2
The Cook
Colonel Mustard
(176),
Mr. Green
(133)
1
The Butler
Sergeant Gray
(22)
1
Miss Peach
Mrs. Peacock (44)
1
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(113)
1
Prince Azure
Miss Scarlet
(126)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Miss Peach (6)

Mr. Green
was lynched. They were:
Mafia Goon
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
8
Miss Scarlet
Prince Azure
(71), Mrs. Peacock (88), Mrs. White (75), The Butler (104),
Monsieur Brunette
(256),
Sergeant Gray
(50), Madame Rose (80),
Miss Scarlet
(119)
3
Prince Azure
Professor Plum
(185), The Cook (6), Mr. Boddy (79)
1
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (40)
1
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(57)
2Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (0)

Miss Scarlet
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Prince Azure
Mr. Boddy (81),
Sergeant Gray
(85),
Prince Azure
(114), Mrs. White (37)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (44), Mrs. Peacock (58)
2
Sergeant Gray
Dr. Orchid
(26), The Cook (18)
1
The Cook
Madame Rose (61)
4Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0), Captain Brown (3), The Butler (93),
Professor Plum
(97)

Prince Azure
was lynched. They were:
Town Doctor + (1-Shot)
.

VotesTargetVoters (Posts in Phase)
4
Sergeant Gray
Mrs. Peacock (72), The Butler (30),
Dr. Orchid
(11), The Cook (6)
2
Miss Peach
Sergeant Gray
(49), Madame Rose (16)
2
Captain Brown
Mrs. White (29), Mr. Boddy (32)
2
Mr. Boddy
Miss Peach (24), Captain Brown (39)
1Not votingMr. Slate-Grey (0)


Sergeant Gray
was lynched. They were:
Vanilla Town
.


Please no cheating and looking up the results of the game :good:

I'd also prefer for people to make their guesses and reasoning in spoiler= tags but hey it's a free country :)
Last edited by mhsmith0 on Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #1 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:34 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

FWIW, I have no official proof, but I'd offered to sub into this game and had >>> rand reads from just VCA alone (including one REALLY strong suspicion that was in fact correct).

So it certainly COULD be done here :)
Last edited by mhsmith0 on Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #2 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:36 am

Post by Creature »

Not sure how many times I've repeated that, but scum don't check how many other scum a wagon has before voting.
Sigh
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Post Post #3 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:38 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

From just the information included in that spoiler, it's entirely possible to understand the flow of the game, and at least one thing should stand out as extremely suspicious of at least one person.

Again, just looking at voting data, no other relevant facts at large.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #4 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:40 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

Ego so remember to do when home
deranged and incoherent
?
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Post Post #5 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:41 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

I dont like vca but the Clue names make this irresistible
deranged and incoherent
?
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Post Post #6 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:43 pm

Post by pienyan »

Spoiler:
Mr. Slate-Gray hasn't voted at all the entire game. Is it him?
Please call me "pie", "pienyan", or "piegirl(n)". TIA.
Yuri: the Purest Form of Love -rebirth- coming soon.
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Post Post #7 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:46 pm

Post by Raskolnikov »

Not going to make an align judgement on slategray but I think I hate them and they shouldn't sign up to games they can't play in
deranged and incoherent
?
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Post Post #8 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:58 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Fwiw slate gray was mainly a mod issue; slot should have been force replaced WAY before day 5.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #9 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 2:37 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 6, pienyan wrote:
Spoiler:
Mr. Slate-Gray hasn't voted at all the entire game. Is it him?
Spoiler:
Heck no. Slate-Gray is town. There's a number of reasons for that, actually.
Btw mhsmith asked me via PM about this. I made a few initial rounds but the way I do VCA wasn't conductive to the formatting of this experiment at the time. There were a few things missing which he said in here that the PM left out, and I got some additional data after that, so I'm going to try and make a second-round pass through it.

(Basically, I do VCA with context that this experiment didn't offer. I have
some
additional context, increasing my ability to make an accurate reading, but I'm still not going to get it 100%, since I'm unfamiliar with a lot of the things I would normally prefer to be familiar with before making VCA. For instance, on mafiascum I have a decent idea of how/when scum players vote, but different sites have different site metas where scum are going to act in ways which differ from mafiascum scum players.)
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Post Post #10 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:02 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

I don’t especially think it’s likely to be super helpful but in case anyone wants it..

Spoiler:
Not in a clean form per se but...


#8 Miss Scarlet voted for Miss Peach 1 Day 1
#9 The Cook voted for The Butler 1 Day 1
#34 Captain Brown voted for Dr. Orchid 1 Day 1
#40 Captain Brown unvoted Dr. Orchid 0 Day 1
#44 The Cook unvoted The Butler 0 Day 1
#44 The Cook voted for Captain Brown 1 Day 1
#54 Miss Scarlet unvoted Miss Peach 0 Day 1
#54 Miss Scarlet voted for Monsieur Brunette 1 Day 1
#71 Mrs. Peacock voted for Monsieur Brunette 2 Day 1
#132 Dr. Orchid voted for Captain Brown 2 Day 1
#167 The Butler voted for Colonel Mustard 1 Day 1
#181 Prince Azure voted for Colonel Mustard 2 Day 1
#208 Mr. Green voted for Miss Scarlet 1 Day 1
#246 Sergeant Gray voted for The Butler 1 Day 1
#247 Miss Scarlet unvoted Monsieur Brunette 1 Day 1
#247 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 1
#319 Miss Scarlet unvoted Prince Azure 0 Day 1
#319 Miss Scarlet voted for Mr. Green 1 Day 1
#332 Dr. Orchid unvoted Captain Brown 1 Day 1
#345 Dr. Orchid voted for Mr. Green 2 Day 1
#424 Monsieur Brunette voted for Mr. Green 3 Day 1
#453 Prince Azure unvoted Colonel Mustard 1 Day 1
#457 Professor Plum voted for Mrs. Peacock 1 Day 1
#463 Captain Brown voted for Professor Plum 1 Day 1
#519 Colonel Mustard voted for Mrs. White 1 Day 1
#547 Madame Rose voted for Mr. Green 4 Day 1
#548 Prince Azure voted for Mrs. White 2 Day 1
#571 Mr. Green unvoted Miss Scarlet 0 Day 1
#571 Mr. Green voted for Professor Plum 2 Day 1
#614 Professor Plum unvoted Mrs. Peacock 0 Day 1
#614 Professor Plum voted for Miss Scarlet 1 Day 1
#668 The Cook unvoted Captain Brown 0 Day 1
#668 The Cook voted for Miss Peach 1 Day 1
#725 The Butler unvoted Colonel Mustard 0 Day 1
#725 The Butler voted for Professor Plum 3 Day 1
#790 Professor Plum unvoted Miss Scarlet 0 Day 1
#790 Professor Plum voted for The Cook 1 Day 1
#844 Mrs. Peacock unvoted Monsieur Brunette 0 Day 1
#844 Mrs. Peacock voted for Professor Plum 4 Day 1
#858 Prince Azure unvoted Mrs. White 1 Day 1
#858 Prince Azure voted for Professor Plum 5 Day 1
#867 Monsieur Brunette unvoted Mr. Green 3 Day 1
#867 Monsieur Brunette voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 1
#884 Colonel Mustard unvoted Mrs. White 0 Day 1
#884 Colonel Mustard voted for The Cook 2 Day 1
#912 The Butler unvoted Professor Plum 4 Day 1
#913 Professor Plum unvoted The Cook 1 Day 1
#913 Professor Plum voted for Mr. Green 4 Day 1
#920 Miss Scarlet unvoted Mr. Green 3 Day 1
#920 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 2 Day 1
#932 Professor Plum unvoted Mr. Green 2 Day 1
#932 Professor Plum voted for Prince Azure 3 Day 1
#933 The Cook unvoted Miss Peach 0 Day 1
#933 The Cook voted for Mr. Green 3 Day 1
#955 Mr. Boddy voted for The Cook 2 Day 1
#1041 The Butler voted for Madame Rose 1 Day 1
#1054 Mrs. Peacock unvoted Professor Plum 3 Day 1
#1054 Mrs. Peacock voted for Miss Peach 1 Day 1
#1066 Miss Scarlet unvoted Prince Azure 2 Day 1
#1066 Miss Scarlet voted for The Cook 3 Day 1
#1082 Mrs. White voted for Mr. Green 4 Day 1
#1086 Monsieur Brunette unvoted Prince Azure 1 Day 1
#1086 Monsieur Brunette voted for The Cook 4 Day 1
#1147 Mr. Green unvoted Professor Plum 2 Day 1
#1147 Mr. Green voted for Colonel Mustard 1 Day 1
#1152 Mr. Green unvoted Colonel Mustard 0 Day 1
#1156 Professor Plum unvoted Prince Azure 0 Day 1
#1156 Professor Plum voted for Mr. Green 5 Day 1
#1168 Mr. Green voted for Professor Plum 3 Day 1
#1188 Miss Scarlet unvoted The Cook 3 Day 1
#1188 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 1
#1195 The Butler unvoted Madame Rose 0 Day 1
#1195 The Butler voted for Captain Brown 1 Day 1
#1203 Professor Plum unvoted Mr. Green 4 Day 1
#1203 Professor Plum voted for Captain Brown 2 Day 1
#1207 Prince Azure unvoted Professor Plum 2 Day 1
#1207 Prince Azure voted for Madame Rose 1 Day 1
#1220 Mr. Boddy unvoted The Cook 2 Day 1
#1220 Mr. Boddy voted for Captain Brown 3 Day 1
#1232 Prince Azure unvoted Madame Rose 0 Day 1
#1232 Prince Azure voted for The Cook 3 Day 1
#1239 Prince Azure unvoted The Cook 2 Day 1
#1239 Prince Azure voted for Professor Plum 3 Day 1
#1273 Prince Azure unvoted Professor Plum 2 Day 1
#1273 Prince Azure voted for Madame Rose 1 Day 1
#1328 Mr. Green unvoted Professor Plum 1 Day 1
#1328 Mr. Green voted for The Cook 3 Day 1
#1334 Miss Scarlet unvoted Prince Azure 0 Day 1
#1334 Miss Scarlet voted for The Cook 4 Day 1
#1367 Prince Azure unvoted Madame Rose 0 Day 1
#1367 Prince Azure voted for Miss Scarlet 1 Day 1
#1370 Monsieur Brunette unvoted The Cook 3 Day 1
#1370 Monsieur Brunette voted for Captain Brown 4 Day 1
#1425 Miss Scarlet unvoted The Cook 2 Day 1
#1425 Miss Scarlet voted for Captain Brown 5 Day 1
#1440 Professor Plum unvoted Captain Brown 4 Day 1
#1440 Professor Plum voted for Mr. Green 5 Day 1
#1443 Monsieur Brunette unvoted Captain Brown 3 Day 1
#1443 Monsieur Brunette voted for Mr. Green 6 Day 1
#1465 Captain Brown unvoted Professor Plum 0 Day 1
#1465 Captain Brown voted for Captain Brown 4 Day 1
#1507 Miss Scarlet unvoted Captain Brown 3 Day 1
#1507 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 1
#1530 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 2
#1533 Professor Plum voted for Prince Azure 2 Day 2
#1733 Professor Plum unvoted Prince Azure 1 Day 2
#1733 Professor Plum voted for Mr. Boddy 1 Day 2
#1766 The Butler voted for Miss Scarlet 1 Day 2
#1783 Professor Plum unvoted Mr. Boddy 0 Day 2
#1783 Professor Plum voted for Miss Scarlet 2 Day 2
#1800 Monsieur Brunette voted for Mrs. Peacock 1 Day 2
#1811 Professor Plum unvoted Miss Scarlet 1 Day 2
#1811 Professor Plum voted for Prince Azure 2 Day 2
#1818 Prince Azure voted for Miss Scarlet 2 Day 2
#1950 Mrs. Peacock voted for Miss Scarlet 3 Day 2
#2016 Dr. Orchid voted for Prince Azure 3 Day 2
#2066 Mrs. White voted for Miss Scarlet 4 Day 2
#2086 Miss Peach voted for Mr. Boddy 1 Day 2
#2226 Mr. Boddy voted for Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2230 Mrs. White unvoted Miss Scarlet 3 Day 2
#2230 Mrs. White voted for Prince Azure 5 Day 2
#2235 Professor Plum unvoted Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2235 Professor Plum voted for Miss Scarlet 4 Day 2
#2246 Madame Rose voted for Miss Scarlet 5 Day 2
#2248 Professor Plum unvoted Miss Scarlet 4 Day 2
#2248 Professor Plum voted for Prince Azure 5 Day 2
#2260 Mrs. White unvoted Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2260 Mrs. White voted for Miss Scarlet 5 Day 2
#2279 The Cook voted for Prince Azure 5 Day 2
#2290 Madame Rose unvoted Miss Scarlet 4 Day 2
#2296 The Butler unvoted Miss Scarlet 3 Day 2
#2304 Mr. Boddy unvoted Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2316 The Butler voted for Miss Scarlet 4 Day 2
#2439 Dr. Orchid unvoted Prince Azure 3 Day 2
#2439 Dr. Orchid voted for The Butler 1 Day 2
#2595 Mr. Boddy voted for Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2695 Dr. Orchid unvoted The Butler 0 Day 2
#2695 Dr. Orchid voted for Sergeant Gray 1 Day 2
#2697 Miss Scarlet unvoted Prince Azure 3 Day 2
#2697 Miss Scarlet voted for Sergeant Gray 2 Day 2
#2701 Monsieur Brunette unvoted Mrs. Peacock 0 Day 2
#2701 Monsieur Brunette voted for Miss Scarlet 5 Day 2
#2751 Miss Scarlet unvoted Sergeant Gray 1 Day 2
#2751 Miss Scarlet voted for Prince Azure 4 Day 2
#2757 Sergeant Gray voted for Miss Scarlet 6 Day 2
#2759 Madame Rose voted for Miss Scarlet 7 Day 2
#2765 Miss Scarlet unvoted Prince Azure 3 Day 2
#2765 Miss Scarlet voted for Miss Scarlet 8 Day 2
#2775 Miss Peach voted for Mr. Boddy 1 Day 3
#2780 The Butler voted for Mrs. Peacock 1 Day 3
#2789 Mr. Boddy voted for Prince Azure 1 Day 3
#2807 Dr. Orchid voted for Sergeant Gray 1 Day 3
#2855 The Butler unvoted Mrs. Peacock 0 Day 3
#2855 The Butler voted for Prince Azure 2 Day 3
#2979 Prince Azure voted for Mr. Boddy 2 Day 3
#2996 Sergeant Gray voted for Prince Azure 3 Day 3
#3055 Professor Plum voted for Mrs. Peacock 1 Day 3
#3057 The Butler unvoted Prince Azure 2 Day 3
#3057 The Butler voted for Mrs. Peacock 2 Day 3
#3247 Madame Rose voted for Prince Azure 3 Day 3
#3248 Professor Plum unvoted Mrs. Peacock 1 Day 3
#3248 Professor Plum voted for Prince Azure 4 Day 3
#3252 The Butler unvoted Mrs. Peacock 0 Day 3
#3252 The Butler voted for Prince Azure 5 Day 3
#3266 Prince Azure unvoted Mr. Boddy 1 Day 3
#3266 Prince Azure voted for Prince Azure 6 Day 3
#3287 The Butler unvoted Prince Azure 5 Day 3
#3291 Professor Plum unvoted Prince Azure 4 Day 3
#3337 Madame Rose unvoted Prince Azure 3 Day 3
#3337 Madame Rose voted for The Cook 1 Day 3
#3454 Mrs. White voted for Prince Azure 4 Day 3
#3494 Mrs. Peacock voted for Mr. Boddy 2 Day 3
#3501 The Cook voted for Sergeant Gray 2 Day 3
#3517 The Butler voted for Captain Brown 1 Day 4
#3529 Captain Brown voted for Captain Brown 2 Day 4
#3544 The Butler unvoted Captain Brown 1 Day 4
#3620 Mrs. White voted for Captain Brown 2 Day 4
#3649 Mrs. Peacock voted for Sergeant Gray 1 Day 4
#3667 Sergeant Gray voted for Mr. Slate-Grey 1 Day 4
#3668 The Butler voted for Sergeant Gray 2 Day 4
#3694 Sergeant Gray unvoted Mr. Slate-Grey 0 Day 4
#3694 Sergeant Gray voted for Miss Peach 1 Day 4
#3699 Madame Rose voted for Miss Peach 2 Day 4
#3706 Dr. Orchid voted for Sergeant Gray 3 Day 4
#3721 Miss Peach voted for Mr. Boddy 1 Day 4
#3731 The Cook voted for Sergeant Gray 4 Day 4
#3765 Mr. Boddy voted for Captain Brown 3 Day 4
#3772 Captain Brown unvoted Captain Brown 2 Day 4
#3772 Captain Brown voted for Mr. Boddy 2 Day 4
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #11 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:07 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 2, Creature wrote:Not sure how many times I've repeated that, but scum don't check how many other scum a wagon has before voting.
I’ll also clarify that this level of VCA (“scum split votes more often than not, therefore look for split votes”) is the sort of thing that generally isn’t very helpful.

It is SOMEWHAT true that scum are >rand to split votes in many situations, but there are plentry of exceptions, and even there you need to think about WHY scum might or might not split votes (and sometimes you can get into the “feel” of a game state or wagon, ESPECIALLY on a mislynch, and figure out if it seems like it’s more town or scum driven, and then take THAT impression and look for scum on or off wagons as a result).

If all you do with vca is look for vote-splitting, your VCA is likely to be about =rand accurate, and is likely to turn you or those you engage with off from the entire concept of VCA.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #12 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:12 pm

Post by Creature »

I don't know how you can tell where scum is without analysing each player individually.
Sigh
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Post Post #13 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 3:17 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Good VCA gives you likelihoods and points of interest that you then cross-validate against individual behaviors.

“This player looks bad, pay much more attention to developing a read and see if the VCA-driven impressions hold true or not on further examination”
“This player seems better, focus efforts elsewhere”
Etc
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #14 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:22 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 13, mhsmith0 wrote:Good VCA gives you likelihoods and points of interest that you then cross-validate against individual behaviors. “This player looks bad, pay much more attention to developing a read and see if the VCA-driven impressions hold true or not on further examination”
“This player seems better, focus efforts elsewhere”
Etc
This would be the reason why I don't trust the conclusions I've made from the data I have, but that being said I'm still pretty confident in two scum. (The third isn't as confident.)
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Post Post #15 (ISO) » Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:21 pm

Post by Toto »

It was the Cook in the Living Room with the Gun!
just because you get evil player role doesn't mean you are a evil person at HEART - KainTepes!!!
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Post Post #16 (ISO) » Sun Nov 05, 2017 10:31 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

So basic facts about the game state that reasonably effective VCA (with a pinch of NK analysis) can point to:
Spoiler:
1) Day 1 had a fairly decisive wagon on a wolf, but every day since had wagons on villagers; moreover, on day 2 in particular, town was a total mess, with a runaway wagon on town and the main counterwagon ALSO on town (said counterwagon being the day 3 lynch). Additional (frankly, glaring) evidence of town’s inherent dysfunction: the day 2 mislynch self-hammered, and the day 3 mislynch self-voted.

2) The wagons that town pursued after the day 1 wolf wagon were almost exclusively on people off the day 1 wolf wagon: the only day 1 wolf voter to get any EOD votes through the end of day 4 was cook, with a single day 3 vote

3) The night 1 kill was OFF the day 1 wolf wagon, and the victim was voting a (still living) day 1 voter

4) The other night kills were all (looking at wagons) relatively boring shots, on people who were on the main wagon of the day (except for n3 Plum, who was not voting at all EOD3)

5) Of the unflipped members of the day 1 wolf wagon (Cook/Rose/White)…

a. Cook/Rose: These two are constantly on different wagons going forward (day 2: Rose on main wagon, Cook on CW; day 3: Rose sole vote on Cook, Cook on a CW; day 4: Rose on a CW, Cook on main wagon). Rose also had an odd-looking single vote wagon on Cook day 3 that ended up kind of vanishing going forward.

b. Cook/White: These two are ALSO constantly on different wagons going forward (day 2: White on main wagon, Cook on CW; day 3: White on main wagon, Cook on CW; day 4: White on CW, Cook on main wagon)

c. Rose/White: also some non-overlap, though not quite as blatant (day 2: both on main wagon; day 3: Rose on a 1-vote wagon, White on main wagon; day 4: both on competing CW’s, off main wagon)


So what does this all suggest?
Spoiler:
What it suggests is BUSSING. In particular, through basic vc data alone, you can easily conclude:

1) The day 1 wolf wagon, if mainly town-driven, should not stand as an isolated example of town effectiveness and wolf ineffectiveness. If town was effective, there would have been more seriously competing wagons going forward, and at the very least there should be more plausible indication of wagons on wolves nearly going through. Day 2 especially stands out as an example of town going from seemingly effective to basically a giant mess – the self-hammer by town on day 2 in particular reinforces the notion that town dysfunction is the order of the day [that the day 3 then featured ANOTHER key self-vote by town just makes that point stronger. And if town was just a total mess, then why would they have almost randomly stumbled upon a wolf lynch day 1? The obvious answer: they didn’t.

2) It is ALSO notable that the town was consistently looking for NON bussers in its future wagons (which, again, were consistently on town). This is a more minor point, but if town is just generically searching for wolves that fit a particular model of behavior (off the wolf wagon) and consistently finds villagers only, that should be additional evidence that the model of behavior is wrong, and that they keep finding villagers inside that model because that group of people is mainly villagers (if the off day 1 wolf wagon voters had 2+ wolves, then if nothing else it’s just mathetically unlikely that even just random or semi-random selection would have resulted in finding a bunch of villagers instead of any wolves). That shouldn’t hard clear the people off the day 1 wolf wagon, but at the same time, that should pretty solidly suggest that most of the time you’re looking at just one wolf off wagon, with zero or two wolves both probabilistically unlikely. And at any rate, the precise number of wolves off wagon isn’t the priority conclusion; the priority conclusion instead is that town should be looking ON wagon for wolves, and drastically change their focus of attention.

3) Further supporting the notion that wolves were fundamentally comfortable with the game state (i.e. town was looking in the wrong places for the wrong reasons) were all the night kills. The most interesting night kill by far was n1 on Mustard, who’d been voting Cook (this is also a red flag by the way, ESPECIALLY since if Cook was being framed somehow, there was apparently never any real interest in ever pursuing said “frame” narrative).

The other night kills were, at least from looking at the VC data, relatively boring shots on people who had towncred from the day 1 wagon, and who were posting enough (other than Orchid) to potentially influence the game going forward, and whose deaths didn’t really give any information (n2: shot the post counter leader who was in the middle of the mislynch wagon; n3: shot the post count leader [after removing the mislynch from the equation] who wasn’t voting anyone, and who was voting flipped town on d4; n4: shot someone who’d spent the game tunneling the guy who was just mislynched).

This isn’t a pattern of wolves shooting people who were active threats or who had been pushing on wolves; this is a pattern of wolves shooting people BEFORE they could potentially become problems, and/or just killing off the people who actually gave a damn about engaging with the game and solving (zero triple digit posters on day 4 might well have been part of why they didn’t bother going for the high count poster anymore)

3) Cook IN PARTICULAR stands out as having exceedingly implausible voting relations with BOTH Rose AND White. If Cook is a townie, then why, after a very successful day 1 lynch on a wolf, does he NEVER get back to voting with two people who theoretically he ought to be trusting? Similarly, his voting relations with other flipped townies is a bit odd as well: Orchid/Plum/Brunette all were alive D2 and he just parked on a CW with Plum; Orchid/Plum were alive D3 and he parked with Orchid; Orchid alone was alive D4 and he hopped onto the same wagon as Orchid (i.e. with many opportunities to vote with living townies or, possibly, get them to work together on a wagon, he really didn’t engage with that in a major way [at least on VC skim – obviously you cross-verify that particular read with the actual game thread and positions taken and engagements made] )

4) Bonus read: Slate-Grey, the slot who zero posted the whole game away (up to that point anyway – he was eventually subbed), was >rand town, because there’s relatively lower likelihood that a town with even fewer wolves actively playing the game (i.e. 2 instead of 3) would be THAT dysfunctional and ineffective. You don’t want to hard-clear someone for that… but a soft clear and a “prioritize other slots for sorting” perspective is generally appropriate.

Also as a super angle-shooty sort of thing (and it’s fine to ignore this if you want)… a single slot zero posting for FOUR day phases straight seems to very strongly indicate that absolutely no one gave a damn if he was participating in the game or not… and if he was a wolf, that seems to be pretty weird of his hypothetical team, no? At the very least, why isn’t a wolf team screaming for a replacement on night 1 after a wolf lynch? If that kind of analysis makes you feel a bit dirty, it probably should, but it’s still not exactly incorrect either.

So basically, even a fairly light read of the voting data should very very very strongly cast suspicion on Cook, and it’s pretty reasonably likely that he was buddies with either Rose or White but not both, and the proper VCA-driven day 5 wagon was cook (barring really good reason to go elsewhere), and the proper day 6 VCA-driven wagon was a duel between Rose and White.


In fact, the scum team was
Spoiler:
Cook along with BOTH Rose and White


And the final result was
Spoiler:
Two more mislynches (Miss Peach and then Mr Slate-Grey) and a relatively easy scum win


Some things that I hope this exercise helps with:
Spoiler:
1) Using VCA to spot evidence of bussing. It’s really hard to find a BETTER example of VCA just screaming major bus than this game state.

A town that was a complete and utter mess (and the evidence supporting THAT interpretation was all over the place: townies self-voting or, worse, self-hammering; constant wagons on flipped towns; a consistent pattern of the counterwagon to a mislynch one day being the actual mislynch the next day; etc), but a day 1 wolf wagon?

Rarely does this happen to a disastrously ineffective town without general scum consent (which usually just means bussing), and if it DID happen, then that suggests a single wolf playing really badly, and then to evaluate THAT possibility you dig into said wolf’s ISO and see if there’s legitimately useful spew anywhere.

2) Using VCA to spot WHO was bussing. This is actually more difficult here, since ALL unflipped slots on the day 1 wolf wagon were bussers, but it’s still very true that looking closely at just the in-game voting behaviors can make people stand out.

Why did Cook’s activity fall off a damn cliff on a lengthy series of mislynches? Why was he consistently avoiding voting on major wagons or linking hands with people that he’d normally be inclined to trust after the day 1 mislynch? Why, if he was sure enough of Azure being scum to not join the Scarlet day 2 wagon, was he then happily enough OFF of the Azure day 3 mislynch wagon? None of these are the voting/posting behaviors associated with any kind of normal townie behavior, and all of them are very reasonably consistent with a day 1 busser coasting like crazy off of whatever town credit he got from the day 1 lynch.

And his extremely consistent avoidance of both Rose AND White on wagons on future days (voted with them ZERO times at EOD2/3/4) suggests that he’s not really interested in trying to leverage the trust he might have garnered from day 1 into any kind of pocketing or strategic engagement (which is an obvious enough potential strategy towards townies there), which pretty strongly indicates that at least one of them is his buddy (normally I’d hesitate to speculate BOTH of them as buddies, but at the least “flip Cook then the next day have everyone choose between Rose and White” seems like an obvious enough VCA-driven process, and then you just evaluate from that point on

Mrs White: pretty consistent bandwagoner. Fourth on day 1 wolf lynch, 3rd on day 2 town lynch, 4th on day 3 town lynch, only early on the day 4 wagon. Voting pattern doesn’t really scream wolf, but doesn’t scream villager at all, and her bandwagoning should have been the subject of more careful investigation (including looking at in-day voting pattenrs to see if she was bandwagoning more frequently as well)

Madame Rose: once you flip Cook as a wolf (and again, that REALLY should have been a focus even before day 5), that day 3 vote park on Cook should blare off all sorts of alarm bells. If she really felt Cook was a wolf, why did she (seemingly) not convince anyone? Similarly, why was she happy enough on day 4 to piss off of that wagon onto a different slot? A useless 1-vote vanity wagon when the other wagons were on town (and you already know by flips that 2/3 of the day 3 wagons were on town) is very reasonably consistent with a wolf dropping down a lazy vote, and is ALSO entirely consistent with a wolf dropping down a lazy vote on a buddy.

3) Using VCA to spot evidence of townie behavior – again, it’s hard, but it’s not really impossible:

Miss Peacock: every single day she was voting on a different wagon, and she was frequently EARLY on wagons. If she’s a wolf, is she just super effective at driving wagons? It’s not inconceivable, but her activity suggests a non-linearity of focus and process, and an ability to convince others (i.e. the points she makes are probably at least credible and convincing). None of that is remotely hard-clearing… but it’s all SUGGESTIVE of town. THAT SAID, her vote on day 1 for Miss Peach had seemingly zero follow-up, and compared to some of the other early-game one-vote wagons (scarlet vs azure most notably), it seems weird that it never went anywhere, AND that she ended up voting WITH Peach on day 3 on Boddy. Overall the voting pattern isn’t bad, but that odd-looking relationship with Peach is probably not a bad thing to be doing research on most of the time.

Miss Peach: The main thing you can see from her voting pattern is that it seemed like she REALLY wanted Mr. Boddy dead (day 2 sole voter; day 3 driving the CW; day 4 driving the CW). She was also one of the three day 4 counter wagons, i.e. prime territory for the day 5 mislynch (which she was). There’s a linearity to that thread presence that should be concerning, so what needs to happen here is to evaluate her process on Boddy for sincerity. It’s not a bad area to be looking at, but the VCA behavior here honestly is more null than anything else.

The Butler: I wouldn’t say that VCA is a major point for or against him to be honest. It’s certainly weird that the day 1 Captain Brown wagon (that he seemed to be driving) never had any members of it flip, but that’s inherently null. Butler was also a notable exception to the pattern of wolves killing off the high posters (which for much of the game he had been). It’s probably worth thinking through WHY wolves shot Orchid instead of Butler n4, since that did seem to largely break the pattern of killing high post count players, but since Orchid was on the d1 wolf wagon and Butler wasn’t, that’s a weak pattern break in the first place, and more of a “think about it more” sort of flag than anything that’s legitimately worse than null to null-scum.

Of course, as it ended up happening, Butler was the day 5 post count leader, and then ate the night 5 bullet, which meant that the overall pattern of “night kill anyone who seems to care about solving the game” in fact did hold, it was just when that model clashed with “shoot a day 1 wolf voter”, they hit the day 1 wolf voter first.

Mr. Boddy: not a great-looking VCA presence, to be honest. Could easily have been trying to save Green day 1, and his only day end votes were on townie Azure and unknown Brown. Easily could be a fairly lazy wolf letting himself sit on realtively easy wagons. PROBABLY the wolfiest of the villager through pure VCA at that point.

Captain Brown: minor town points for being the counterwagon to a day 1 wolf wagon. One does wonder what in the world he was doing self-voting day 1 and then being a total non-factor for days 2 and 3, so looking at that process in particular seems potentially productive. In a world where Green flipped an important wolf PR, you could fairly easily imagine that Brown was a wolf who simply gave up, but since Green was just a goon, it’s hard to imagine why Brown would even consider semi trying to die to have him on day 1. Overall pretty null by a simple VCA analysis though, maybe small town lean due to being day 1 CW.

Mr. Slate-Grey: Discussed previously, but the TLDR of why the hell is THIS guy a wolf when town was enough of a mess without any contributions from him is enough for at the very least an easy town lean


PS I've had people (who are still working on the exercise) request not to be spoiled on this, so I ask that everyone refrain from messaging anyone else about this for a while.

Posting in this thread is probably fine though :)
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Post Post #17 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:09 am

Post by ironstove »

here's my VCA:

when i am town and someone is voting me despite my claiming that i am town, that person has to be scum so i need to push to have them lynched

done.
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Post Post #18 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:17 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

That strategy is neither vca nor effective (as town anyway) but ok.
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Post Post #19 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:22 am

Post by ironstove »

What are you talking about? I count 1 person voting me, I analyze that they are scum. How is that not VCA? Do you know what VCA is?
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Post Post #20 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

Image

You're probably just trolling, but for giggles...

OMGUS and VCA have virtually nothing to do with one another

OMGUS: what lazy townies do when they feel entitled to be town read and someone disagrees
VCA: analysis of the game state based on concrete voting data
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #21 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:53 am

Post by Raskolnikov »

he's joking my dude

I forgot about this. damn though if I do it now and actually get it right there's no proof it's real or if I looked at the answers, gg
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Post Post #22 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:53 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

the point isn't to do something to brag, the point is more to try and learn from the effort

imo anyway
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #23 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:58 am

Post by Raskolnikov »

wait isn't the point of doing anything to brag about it, shit.

how would you feel if I subverted the point of the exercises and did analysis just based on how many posts each player had in each phase :P
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Post Post #24 (ISO) » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:10 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

You would discover that scum spent most of the game shooting the people with the highest post counts :P

As they say, sort by post count, become werewolf expert :P

PS But yes, looking at post counts is a point of information that is perfectly acceptable as part of the solving process. The point of the exercise is to train the mental muscles of using a pure data-driven approach to understand a game state and draw reasonable and relevant conclusions from said analysis.
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http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Mhsmith0
Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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